Upstream material prices have risen, battery factories, vehicle manufacturers have raised prices to transfer costs, but the strange thing is that the stock prices of resource companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, which should be the most profitable, have actually appeared.
Lao Zhang said: I can't afford to add oil.
After 24:00 on March 17, the price of No. 95 gasoline bid farewell to 8 yuan and entered the era of 9 yuan. This is the fifth increase in the retail price limit of refined oil products this year, after two increases in January and one increase in February and one in March.
The total of 5 increases, the cumulative per ton of domestic gasoline and diesel was raised by 2015 and 1940 yuan respectively, which is equivalent to an increase of 1.58, 1.67 and 1.65 yuan per liter of Gasoline 92, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel respectively.
The old man opened his mouth and said that he could not refuel, but the actual action was not the same, and he quickly drove to the gas station after work. As an old jianghu, he expected that the rise in oil prices would inevitably lead to a long queue, and there would be no oil when it was too late. Queuing up to Lao Zhang, Lao Zhang rarely shouted a sentence of "No. 95 is full".
It seems that the pony is still young, thinking of waiting for fewer people to refuel later. However, after an hour of queuing, the big brother in front of him suddenly shouted: "There is no oil, the gas is gone, don't line up." The pony had no choice but to go home happily.
On March 17, while oil prices rose, bydir, Tesla, Xiaopeng and other new energy vehicle leaders echoed the price increase. Seemingly accidental is actually inevitable, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, so that car dealers have the confidence to make this decision.
On March 8, the Passenger Car Market Information Association released the Passenger Car Market Data for February 2022, and the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 272,000 units in February, an increase of 180.5% year-on-year.
From January to February this year, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 624,000 units, up 153.2% year-on-year. Among them, pure electric vehicles sold 480,000 units, an increase of 131.8% year-on-year, and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 144,000 units, an increase of 265.8% year-on-year.
The momentum of strong demand for new energy vehicles has continued unabated, and it is also rising in the context of a sharp rise in raw materials.
According to CCTV financial reports, the price of new energy vehicles in February increased from less than 1,000 yuan to tens of thousands of yuan. Since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models. In the face of the "rising voice" of the market, the consumer side gradually showed anxiety.
New energy vehicles "rising tide"
Xiao Wang is 30 years old this year, and after a few years of wandering in Beijing, he has established a family and has a relatively stable job, a virtuous wife, and a pair of children at his side.
Considering the needs of his children's schooling and weekend play, Xiao Wang plans to start a new energy vehicle this year. Xiao Wang has a special love for Tesla, and knows that Tesla MODLE Y cut prices sharply last year, which is in his early 300,000 years, which should be affordable for him, and he made up the car in March.
However, after actually visiting the store, Xiao Wang could not hide his loss.
On March 11, Xiao Wang and his lover came to Tesla's new Yansha experience store at No. 1 Yuanda Road, Haidian District, Beijing early in the morning, and after inquiring about the price from the sales staff, they found that MODLE Y had just announced a price increase of 10,000. Xiao Wang, who is usually accustomed to saving, is a little hesitant, and wants to inquire about it again, compare other models, and then wait to see if the price can be reduced.
After comparing with other models, Xiao Wang is still more inclined to the MODLE Y. At the same time, he also consulted his friend Xiao Li, who did car research, and Xiao Li told Xiao Wang that the price still had to rise, and he wanted to buy it as soon as possible.
On March 16, the determined Xiao Wang came to the Tesla store again, but who thought that just a few days after the price increase, Tesla announced the price increase again.
The price of the Model Y long-endurance version rose by 18,000 yuan, priced at 357,900 yuan; the price of the Model Y high-performance version was raised by 20,000 yuan, and the price was 41.79 yuan, which made Xiao Wang, who only had 300,000 in hand, completely dumbfounded.
What used to be something I could buy, now I have to borrow money. Xiao Wang was angry and left the Tesla store without looking back.
Coincidentally. BYD (002594. SZ) some models made price adjustments, ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan; GAC Aion AION Y series rose by 10,000 yuan, AION S Plus and AION Y Plus rose by 4,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan respectively.
In addition, new car-making forces such as Nezha Automobile, Zero-run Automobile, and Xiaopeng Automobile (XPEV.US, 09868.HK) have chosen to raise the price of new energy vehicles.
Obviously, new energy vehicles are "rising like a tide".
Many factors have led to price increases
The reasons for the price increase are manifold.
First, the sharp rise in oil prices has made new energy vehicles more economically competitive, so they have the courage to increase prices. Second, there is a shortage of automotive chips.
There are both macro environment impacts, such as the epidemic, inflation, and trade frictions. There are also attributes of the industry itself, and the semiconductor cycle attributes of hunger for three years and three years make the industry adopt conservative capacity planning, so there is a mismatch in production capacity.
In the context of the high demand for new energy vehicles, there is naturally a situation of short supply, and price increases are a matter of course.
On the other hand, driven by the high profits of consumer electronics, the capacity allocation is more inclined to the latter, further exacerbating the chip shortage. What's more, some automakers have to be forced to cut production.
For example, on March 15, local time, Japanese auto giant Toyota Motor Corporation said that due to the shortage of semiconductor chips, it will further reduce production in March. A few days ago, Toyota lowered its domestic production target for April-June this year by as much as 20%.
It is worth noting that at the beginning of March, Toyota said that many models were once again in short supply due to lack of cores, up to 40% of the models had to wait for more than 5 months to deliver the car, some models had to wait for 4 years, and the luxury car brand Lexus new "NX" had stopped receiving orders.
In addition, factors such as subsidy decline are also one of the reasons.
According to the standard calculation of the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" issued on December 31, 2021, the price of new energy passenger vehicles before subsidies needs to be less than 300,000 yuan (vehicles in the power exchange mode are not subject to this regulation).
Pure electric models with a battery life greater than 400km will be reduced by 5400 yuan next year, the subsidy for 300-400 kilometers will be reduced by 3900 yuan, and the plug-in mix and extended range will be reduced by 2040 yuan.
Under the booming demand for new energy vehicles, this part of the cost is obviously paid by investors.
On top of these reasons, the most critical is the soaring price of upstream lithium, which has led to an increase in the price of lithium batteries. Lithium batteries account for more than 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, making car companies overwhelmed and can only transfer cost pressure through price increases.
For example, high-nickel ternary batteries use lithium hydroxide as a lithium source, lithium iron phosphate uses lithium carbonate as a lithium source, and electrolyte uses lithium hexafluorophosphate as a lithium source.
Therefore, in the final analysis, the root cause of this phenomenon is that lithium resources are in short supply.
In the context of the booming production and sales of new energy vehicles, the federation will increase the sales of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022; new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
According to industry veterans, in 2022, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 10 million. Even if it is expected to increase the lithium carbonate equivalent by 170,000-180,000 tons this year, there is still a gap of about 30,000 tons in the face of huge demand.
In the case of scarce resources, the price increase is undoubtedly the most reasonable explanation.
According to Shanghai non-ferrous data, on March 18, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 500,000 / ton, rising to 503,000 / ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide rose to 489,500 / ton. The price of the two at the beginning of 2021 is less than 100,000 / ton, and the increase in only one year is nearly 4 times.
Source: Flush iFinD
Pour into the lithium iron phosphate battery
The upstream price increase of lithium carbonate is transmitted downstream along the industrial chain, which first affects the supply pattern of the lithium battery industry.
From January to February, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries to 16.7GWh far exceeds the installed capacity of 13.1GWh of ternary lithium batteries, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is still stable at more than 55%, which shows that the high affinity of power battery manufacturers for lithium iron phosphate batteries has not yet dissipated.
In terms of output, in February 2022, the output of continental power batteries totaled 31.8GWh, and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.1GWh, accounting for 63.1% of the total output.
It is not difficult to understand that in addition to lithium salts, ternary materials also use scarce metals such as cobalt and nickel, which makes the cost rise sharply, far exceeding lithium iron phosphate batteries.
At the beginning of last year, domestic battery factories focused on lithium iron phosphate batteries. Today, under the cost pressure brought about by the huge increase in lithium salt, international battery giants are also turning to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
South Korean battery company LG New Energy has begun to develop lithium iron phosphate battery technology at the end of 2020, and will build a lithium iron phosphate battery test production line this year and trial production in 2022.
In early October 2021, it was reported that Another South Korean battery giant, SK On, was developing lithium iron phosphate batteries for electric vehicles.
On October 21, 2021, Serbian battery developer ElevenEs said in a statement that the first LFP battery gigafactory will be built in Europe.
Higher safety and lower cost have made lithium iron phosphate batteries shine in market-oriented applications, not to mention that BYD, the leader of lithium iron phosphate, has successfully won the world's first position in the sales of new energy passenger cars.
Under this influence, the passenger cars of mainstream car companies have used lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Recently, Rivian, a U.S. electric vehicle manufacturer known as the "Tesla killer", has announced the full use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Volkswagen, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, etc. have announced that they will use lithium iron phosphate batteries in passenger cars.
Returning to the essence of the industry, the factors affecting the promotion of batteries are nothing more than three aspects, safety, cost, and performance. Safety must be the first in the specific application, and there is no way to talk about the application of new energy vehicles without safety guarantees.
The second is the cost, which determines the degree of commercial promotion and is a prerequisite for industrial marketization. In the context of the sharp surge in lithium resources, the major giants have reversed the layout of lithium iron phosphate.
Even if the performance of ternary high-nickel batteries is better, it is in line with the industrial development trend of increasing capacity density in the future. However, at this stage, lithium iron phosphate, which has the advantage of safety performance, especially in the cost of occupying the upper hand, is undoubtedly a better choice for car companies.
Lao Li also recently planned to change cars, and he originally scorned new energy vehicles, and in the wave of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles, he also fell and became a cluster of new energy vehicles.
After studying a variety of models on the market, Lao Li found that new energy vehicles have a huge leading edge in intelligence. Especially the comparison with the fuel car in the low-end model reminds him of the huge impact of the iPhone in 2010 on the button mobile phone.
Old Li "feels that the two are not the same thing." For example, more than 100,000 new energy vehicles with full-car atmosphere lights, intelligent voice assistants, more than 200,000 cars equipped with gull wing door shape, the appearance of advanced coupe model design, full of sense of science and technology. This configuration is placed on fuel vehicles as little as hundreds of thousands, and more than millions.
End
The cyclical nature of the industry determines that there must be a problem of mismatch in production capacity, and factors such as rising raw materials and chip shortages have driven the price of terminal cars and damaged the enthusiasm of some consumers in the short term.
On the other hand, as Lao Li said, new energy vehicles are accepted by more and more people, and the huge market gives fertile ground for the development of new energy vehicles.
The increase in penetration has brought economy, cheapness, and a sense of technology that has brought unprecedented impact. Although there are still many shortcomings, for example, charging troubles. Mileage anxiety, infrastructure and much more. But with the advancement of technology, it will be gradually solved.
Regarding the shortage of chips, the shortage of lithium sources, and the rise in automobile prices, these problems can be self-regulated under the conditions of marketization.