New energy vehicles are waiting for spring.
Author | Liu Xingzhi Zhao Jinjie
Edited by | Zhao Jinjie
Source | Box Lunch Finance (ID:daxiongfan)
The 1236th in-depth article | 12 min read
New energy vehicles have entered a crazy price increase cycle of one price a day.
On the afternoon of March 17, when Bentan Finance visited a new energy vehicle store, the sales staff also said that they had not received a notice of price increase, "it should rise, it may be next Monday, but it is not guaranteed." ”
Just left the store, the sales through WeChat to inform the box lunch finance, 6 p.m. after the system update will rise. At 23:37 that night, the new energy vehicle brand released an official Weibo, officially announcing the price increase, which took effect on March 18.
Tesla, the big brother of the industry, has raised prices three times in a week. According to incomplete statistics from Bento Finance, since the end of last year, nearly 20 new energy vehicle brands have announced price increases, and some low-end micro-electric vehicles below 100,000 yuan, such as Euler Black Cat/White Cat, Changan Benben, etc., have even directly announced the suspension of orders.
But this wave of price increases has not stopped young people from rushing to new energy vehicles. With the warmer weather, the new energy vehicles that were ridiculed as electric daddies in winter gradually regained the favor of young people.
The bigger stimulus comes from the recent surge in oil prices. After No. 98 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline has also begun to enter the 9 yuan era from March 18, and No. 92 gasoline is only one step away from the 9 yuan threshold.
Prospective car owners who are interested in buying new energy vehicles have flocked to offline stores. Longhu Beijing Changyaotian Street, a huge shopping mall gathered a number of new car-making forces stores and booths, including the first-line Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, as well as Nezha, Feifan, Lantu and other second-tier brands. On March 17, Beijing ushered in the spring cold, although the snow was drifting, it was still a weekday, but the store was still crowded with people watching cars and test driving.
Some car sales staff told Box Lunch Finance that two of the three exhibition cars in the store have been booked, and the test drive should also be booked in advance. "If you test drive, you have to make an appointment in advance on weekends, you have to queue up, and you have to make an appointment in advance on weekdays, and the exhibition car may be borrowed."
This hot scene even spawned order resale transactions. Taking Tesla as an example, the prospective owner who ordered Tesla in December last year could net 20,000 yuan by reselling the order. Tesla orders on the second-hand trading platform, the resale price ranges from 4000-8000 yuan.
In order to prevent scalpers from reselling cars in advance, Tesla has required owners of one or more cumulative orders to purchase multiple Tesla vehicles from March to sign a "non-resale commitment letter", and if there is a resale to a third party within 365 days, the car buyer needs to pay a penalty of 20% of the vehicle's fare.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to February 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased by 1.5 times year-on-year, accounting for 17.9% of new car sales.
Young people who began to reconcile with electric dads also ushered in the spring of the new forces of second-line car manufacturing. On the evening of March 17, Zero Run Auto officially submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong stock market, which is expected to become the fourth listed new energy vehicle brand outside of "Wei Xiaoli".
Wang Yue, who works at a state-owned enterprise in Shanghai, moved the idea of buying a car to commute to the end of last year, and began to watch cars, test drives, and tangled between oil cars and pure trams.
But in the face of rising oil prices, Wang Yue finally chose pure trams. "If you go to work every day to drive a fuel truck, the fuel bill will cost 50 yuan." Wang Yue commutes to and from work every day for nearly 100 kilometers, plus occasionally enters the city on weekends, the annual mileage of the car is about 25,000 kilometers, according to the current oil price, the annual oil cost is about 13,500 yuan, plus maintenance and other costs, the annual cost of the oil car is nearly 20,000 yuan higher than that of the pure tram.
Wang Yue's community can install charging piles, and the company's parking lot also has charging stations, and mileage anxiety is not a problem for her. The officially marked 600 km endurance, even if discounted in winter, can run at least 300 km. "As long as you recharge diligently, you don't have to worry about the halfway 'nest'." Wang Yue said.
Similar to Wang Yue, due to the recent rise in oil prices, Ms. Li of Beijing also intends to replace one of the two oil trucks in her family with a pure tram: the tram meets the daily commuting needs of the city, and the oil truck is responsible for long-distance travel because of its advantage of convenient energy replenishment.
In Ms. Li's view, due to subsidies and other factors, the configuration of pure trams at the same price is generally higher than that of fuel vehicles, and the driving experience in the city is better, and a fuel car and a tram complement each other's advantages and can diversify to meet the needs of family cars.
Some new energy vehicle company sales staff told Box Lunch Finance that at present, in first-tier cities, pure trams have two main advantages: one is cost-effective, and the other is unrestricted. In terms of cost performance, in addition to the electricity cost is much lower than the fuel cost, the price of pure tram per maintenance is less than one-tenth of that of the oil car, and the same price model, pure tram is generally higher than the fuel car configuration; and in terms of restrictions, the pure tram in first-tier cities is not limited, and it is easier to add a license, which is very attractive to many car owners.
A Xing, who has already driven an electric car, has dodged this wave of oil price increases, and Wuling Hongguang Mini, which started in October last year, has been driving 8,000 kilometers for 5 months. This car basically meets his daily work needs, although the mileage is short, but the milk tea shop he runs can be charged at any time and can also be used to deliver takeaways.
Axing modified Wuling mini
The price of the naked car is less than 50,000 yuan, and Ah Xing does not have any burden to drive. After buying a car, Ah Xing calculated an account: 8,000 kilometers in 5 months, about 20,000 kilometers a year, compared with his Porsche, the fuel cost saved in two years is enough to mention a new mini.
The rising price of new energy vehicles also affects the car purchase decisions of young people to a certain extent. Some insiders believe that the price increase will have an impact on sales, but it will not be very large, especially in first-tier cities, for prospective car owners who hold last year's new energy indicators, compared with price increases, the cost of expiring the indicators is obviously greater.
"One is that the new energy indicators issued in May last year will expire immediately, and the indicators will be issued immediately in May this year, before the backlog of orders was released; in addition, oil prices have risen, and many oil truck owners will choose to replace oil trucks with new energy vehicles." A new energy vehicle company sales explained, "In the recent orders, 3 out of every 8 are replaced. ”
But for consumers in second- and third-tier cities, price increases have given them an extra layer of concern.
Li Chen, who lives in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, recently decided to switch from the oil car camp to the hybrid, after driving a Buick GL8 that was idle at home.
Since the end of last year, oil prices have been rising steadily, and the oil consumption of GL8 hundred kilometers of more than ten liters has made Li Chen feel flesh pain, so he considered changing to a new energy vehicle. At first, Li Chen also considered changing pure trams, but Tesla, BYD and other brands repeatedly increased prices, which made him stop the idea of buying pure trams.
Li Chen, who is still single, feels that he does not have the need to keep two cars, but it takes at least 8 to 10 years to buy a car, and he hopes to balance the mileage advantage of the oil car and the cost advantage of the tram. Li Chen thus turned his attention to hybrid and extended range, and finally chose the Asian Dragon.
Compared with Li Chen, Li Hao, a civil servant in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, is still worried about the charging anxiety of new energy vehicles.
Two or three years ago, Li Hao began to pay attention to new energy vehicles, and during the period, he also tested many times, but he never made up his mind to change the car. The year before his father changed cars, Li Hao drove away his father's old Accord for daily commuting.
Li Hao commutes less than 30 kilometers a day, a tank of fuel per month is basically enough, plus unit oil supplementation, for him, the cost of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is not much different.
Seeing that the mileage of new energy vehicles has increased to more than 600 kilometers, Li Hao's cruising worries have eased, but the mileage anxiety has not completely disappeared, and he began to worry about charging problems.
The density of facilities such as charging piles in Li Hao's third-tier cities is far less than that in first- and second-tier cities. Li Hao's hometown is in Jiangsu, and he will occasionally run a long distance home. "If there happens to be something going on at home, and the tram just doesn't have enough power, do I drive it or not?"
The rapid iteration of new energy vehicles is another major reason why Li Hao chose to wait and see. "I used a car for at least seven or eight years, and the next year the new car was upgraded, and if I didn't increase the price, I would lose money." Li Hao intends to continue to wait and see, and wait until the new energy vehicle experience and fuel vehicles have opened a significant gap and the charging facilities are more perfect.
Industry insiders told Bento Finance that at present, there is no "dimensionality reduction attack" situation in new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, and it can only be said that each has its own advantages, the biggest advantage of new energy vehicles is cost-effective and high configuration, and the advantage of oil vehicles lies in mature technology and convenient energy replenishment. How the two choose mainly depends on their own needs.
Compared with fuel vehicles, another shortcoming of new energy vehicles at present is the long delivery cycle. Among the many new energy vehicle brands, the delivery cycle is as short as 1-2 months and as long as 5-6 months. Many prospective owners have begun to set their sights on used new cars and quasi-new cars.
The resale deal around Tesla was born. On a second-hand trading platform, many Tesla owners who placed orders around October last year were reselling orders at a higher price, with a price increase ranging from 4,000-8,000 yuan. The price increase is for the price of last October, and the consumers who take over the market can still pick up the car at a price of more than 10,000 yuan lower than the current official website, and they do not have to endure a long delivery period, and they can withdraw the car at the end of March. "Every day someone calls me, and three or four of them have the intention of buying." A Tesla seller who resold the order told Box Lunch Finance.
The retention rate of new energy vehicles is also increasing. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as CADA), in January this year, the three-year age retention rate of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models and electric (EV) models increased to 61.5% and 49.5%, respectively.
CADA analysis pointed out that the increase in the ownership of new energy vehicles, market recognition and use experience is a macro factor in the rise of the new energy used car market, and the recent difficulty in delivery of the new car market and other factors have contributed to the significant increase in the retention rate of new energy used electric vehicles in February.
However, in the current new energy used car market, the retention rate of quasi-new cars and old cars shows a polarized trend. According to all-weather science and technology reports, this round of hot market is aimed at low kilometers, low age quasi-new cars, boutique cars.
On the one hand, this is because the depreciation calculation method of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is different: the highest value of new energy vehicles is the power battery, and the residual value of the car is about equal to the residual value of the battery, and the depreciation is faster than that of fuel vehicles. On the other hand, pure tram technology is developing rapidly, and many consumers "buy new and don't buy old". In the past two or three years, Li Hao has test-driven almost all models of mainstream manufacturers. "Before 400 kilometers was a high endurance, now 400 is basically standard or low. Fast charging began last year and became standard. ”
For this polarized situation, the young prospective car owners interviewed believe that the retention rate is not the primary factor in their car purchases. A car owner who replaced the oil truck with a tram told Box Lunch Finance that the high configuration and intelligence of new energy vehicles are the main factors that attract him. "Buying a car is still a consumer behavior, more importantly, the experience." I buy a car to drive, not to sell. ”
The owner of the car to the box lunch finance calculated an account, if it is a new car or quasi-new car, buy to experience a period of time feel inappropriate, sell will not lose a lot of money. And if it feels appropriate, the car will become its main vehicle for the next 8 to 10 years. Based on the price of 200,000 yuan of new cars, second-hand oil cars can sell for 100,000 yuan after 8-10 years, pure trams may be worth 40,000-50,000 yuan, and the fuel money and maintenance costs saved in a few years can fully offset this part of the difference.
As more and more young people begin to reconcile with electric dads, the explosive demand of the new energy automobile industry is pushing the new forces of second-tier car manufacturing to the brink of listing.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, from January to February this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the mainland reached 480,000 units, an increase of 131.8% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 14.4%.
On the evening of March 17, Zero Run Auto officially disclosed its prospectus and intended to go to Hong Kong stocks for listing. This is the fourth new energy vehicle brand that is expected to succeed in IPO after "Wei Xiaoli".
More new car-making forces preparing to go public are also on the way. In the second half of last year, Zero Run Automobile completed 4.5 billion yuan of Pre-IPO financing, almost the same period, Nezha Automobile also received more than 6 billion yuan of D round financing, and was exposed to have opened a Pre-IPO round of financing with a valuation of about 45 billion yuan, and internally has planned to submit a Hong Kong stock IPO application within this year. WM Motors, which folded the sci-tech innovation board, also received more than $500 million (about 3.2 billion yuan) of Series D financing at this stage, and then was rumored to be IPO news.
In the face of the increasing penetration rate of electric vehicles, new players in cross-border car manufacturing are still entering the game. Li Yinan, the former founder of Maverick Electric, officially announced the new project of building a car from Youjia last year and revealed that it will be delivered in September. "CyberCar" quoted sources familiar with the matter, Didi in conjunction with BYD to build a ride-hailing plan, but also decided to personally go down to build A-class electric vehicles for the consumer market, as soon as June may release new models, and strive to deliver new cars in June next year.
Xiaomi Automobile, which is working intensively to build cars, and Baidu's Jidu Automobile are also about to start delivery this year and next year.
Despite the recovery of market demand, the challenges facing these car companies have not decreased.
Taking zero-run as an example, its prospectus deliberately emphasizes that "zero-run is China's first and the world's second (second only to Tesla) global self-developed car-making new forces" . Xiaopeng has previously declared that it is China's first and the world's second new force for full-stack self-developed cars.
Zhu Jiangming, founder of Zero Run, explained that global self-research is more high-end than full-stack self-research, specifically, full-stack self-research only includes software, not hardware. The global self-research is all independent research and development of software and hardware.
However, the zero run that claims to create a global self-development capability, last year's research and development expenditure was only 740 million yuan, compared with Wei Xiaoli, its research and development expenditure last year has exceeded 1 billion yuan.
In addition, although the sales of new second-tier car-making forces such as Zero Run and Nezha are gradually approaching Wei Xiaoli, or even surpassing Weilai, in terms of model prices, nearly 90% of the former's sales come from low-end models below 100,000 yuan. This also causes zero runs, Nezha's gross profit has not yet turned positive, and they are in the predicament of selling one car and losing one.
The new forces of second-tier car manufacturing are obviously aware of this problem, and have made efforts in the high-end market to launch 150,000-300,000 range models. How to balance the pull between sales and prices will be a major challenge for these car companies in 2022.
(Wang Yue, Ah Xing, Li Chen, and Li Hao are pseudonyms in the text)