The price of crude oil and power battery raw materials has risen: Chinese brands have made efforts to use the future vehicle power system

21st Century Business Herald reporter Du Qiaomei Beijing reported that "the opportunity during the electrification transformation window period will be fleeting, and enterprises must seize the opportunity to follow up the changes." With the development of the automobile industry, the continental vehicle power system has experienced the process of running and running, and has reached a local leading situation, hybrid is the key technical route of diversified drive systems, and it is also an indispensable and important means for the automotive industry to achieve the goal of 'double carbon'. ”

On March 18, Wang Ruiping, senior vice president of Geely Automobile Group, chairman of the Passenger Vehicle Powertrain Professional Committee of China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, and chairman of the Automotive Advanced PowerTrain Branch, said at the 2022 Automotive PowerTrain International Summit Forum.

Wang Ruiping pointed out that although the authoritative institutions in the industry have different assessments of the carbon reduction contribution of hybrid and electric vehicles, they are consistent in their views on the fact that hybrid energy can greatly reduce the carbon emissions of fuel vehicles. At the same time, the hybrid travel experience is also more in line with the actual needs of Chinese consumers.

At the forum on the same day, a number of experts from the industry and academia also said that in the context of the rise in the price of raw materials and crude oil for power batteries, the current oil-electric hybrid is an environmentally friendly solution in the process of industry transformation, and it is also an indispensable and important means for the automotive industry to "reduce carbon" standards.

Breaking the "double carbon", car companies grab the hybrid market

In 2020, the mainland officially put forward the development goal of "striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". As one of the important sources of carbon emissions in China, the transportation sector is highly dependent on the combustion of fossil fuels in mobile terminals, resulting in a situation where its carbon dioxide emission base is large and it is difficult to reduce emissions.

According to the data, in 2020, the carbon emissions in the mainland transportation sector will be 930 million tons, accounting for 15% of the country's terminal carbon emissions, and it is the third largest carbon emission source after industry and construction. In the entire transportation sector, road traffic carbon emissions account for 90%, of which road passenger transport accounts for 42%, where 90% comes from passenger cars; road freight accounts for 45%, mainly from freight trucks; other means of transport emissions are relatively small, such as aviation, ships account for about 6%, railways about 1%.

The industry believes that the development of hybrid systems is an important guarantee for achieving carbon peaking in the transportation sector in 2030.

On the other hand, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" pointed out that in 2035, the total carbon emissions will drop by more than 20% compared with the peak, and the traditional energy power will convert 100% into a more energy-saving hybrid, and the new energy vehicle and hybrid will each account for 50% of the sales of new vehicles.

As hybrid vehicles are becoming the key areas of the current development of new energy vehicles, in recent years, Chinese brands have shown an overall upward trend in the field of power system research and development, and domestic car companies, including Changan, BYD and Great Wall, have significantly strengthened their investment in the research and development and industrialization of hybrid vehicles.

"The new energy transformation under the ecological goal focuses on the electrification transformation of the power system. The technological innovation of the hybrid system has also accelerated the high thermal efficiency of the engine, taking the thermal efficiency of the engine by 40% as an example, and for every percentage point increase in thermal efficiency, the fuel saving rate of the whole vehicle can be improved by 2.5%. In the past few years, independent brands have invested a lot of resources to develop hybrids. In 2021, major car companies have successively launched new hybrid systems. Wang Ruiping said.

With the development of the automobile industry, the research and development and manufacturing of continental vehicle power systems has experienced the process of following and running, and has now reached a local leading trend. In recent years, Chinese brands have shown an overall upward trend in the field of power system research and development, and many car companies have been at the forefront of the world. In the field of hybrid special engines, the thermal efficiency of products of power brands such as Geely and BYD has exceeded the 41% mark, highlighting the world's leading position in domestic engine research and development, sweeping away the impression that traditional technology is lagging behind, and greatly enhancing the image of Chinese brands. In the exploration of energy diversification, brands such as Geely and Hongqi have gradually solved the technical problems in the application of methanol and hydrogen fuel in the internal combustion engine.

It is understood that on October 31 last year, Geely Automobile officially released Raytheon Power and the modular intelligent hybrid platform Raytheon Intelligence Qi· X。

Ray's Mind Hi · X has a full life cycle carbon emission reduction effect, thermal efficiency of up to 43.32%, fuel saving rate of more than 40%. It includes a 1.5TD/2.0TD hybrid engine, as well as a DHT/DHT Pro hybrid special transmission, which supports full coverage of A0-C class models, and covers a variety of hybrid technologies such as HEV, PHEV, and REEV. In the next three years, it will provide a variety of power combinations including strong hybrid, long-endurance plug-in hybrid and extended range hybrid, which will be installed on more than 20 models of Geely, Lynk & Co and other brands.

Rising raw material prices may affect the direction of electrification technology

"From the perspective of the general environment, the rapid rise of battery raw materials that began last year has interrupted the downward trend of new energy costs that has lasted for many years, or will trigger the electrification scheme to change the path and develop in the direction of 'sustainable cost reduction'." Wang Ruiping said.

Among them, the price of lithium carbonate has broken through from less than 50,000 yuan per ton to 500,000 yuan per ton, and the price of raw materials has increased by 100,000 yuan per kilowatt hour, the impact on battery costs is about 50 to 100 yuan per kilowatt hour of electricity, lithium carbonate rose to 500,000 yuan per ton of electricity means that the power battery rose by 250 yuan to 500 yuan per kilowatt hour; and the nickel metal price, one of the main materials of the positive electrode of the battery, has also recently risen sharply, and has exceeded $100,000 per ton in recent days, which means that the cost of the battery has increased by at least 30%.

Affected by these cost rising factors such as these, a number of car companies, including Tesla, GAC Aeon, Geometric Automobile, Chery Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, WM Automobile, Zero-run Car, BYD Automobile, etc., have recently announced the price increase of electric vehicles. Previously, Euler black and white cats, which lost money due to rising raw material prices, even stopped taking orders.

"There is also the recent increase in the price of crude oil. Within a year, international crude prices had broken through $135 from $64 a barrel. Especially in the recent week, which has risen by 35%, the cost pressure of oil for customers has increased sharply, and the market will certainly be more eager for the introduction of fuel-saving technologies. Wang Ruiping said that hybrid will relieve the pressure of the market on the price increase of fuel and raw materials.

On the one hand, the increase in the price of raw materials will cause the cost of batteries to rise, and the market weight of hybrid models will rise. The cost of hybrid batteries is only half or less than 1/4 of the cost of pure electric vehicle power batteries; on the other hand, with the advantages of long endurance and convenient energy replenishment, hybrid models have no mileage anxiety.

"Hybrid is an effective electrification path that is more in line with the actual state of the current energy and has both market and environmental needs." Wang Ruiping said.

At present, hybrid also has obvious advantages in technology, which not only drives the upgrading and emission reduction of fuel vehicles that account for the majority of market demand, but also helps to promote the development of electrification technology; in terms of software, the control system of hybrid power covers the control module of special vehicles and electric vehicles, and can also realize the sharing of hybrid and pure electric technology.

"The transformation path of enterprises should be from hybrid electric to electrified, which is also the advantage of car companies with historical heritage." Wang Ruiping pointed out.

However, in the face of the "double carbon" goal, some experts believe that the challenge of independent innovation in the future new power system industry chain is still arduous, especially the collaboration between the material industry and the chip industry is the core technology that should be paid attention to in the future.