At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the people who speculated in gold watched the four consecutive falls and then rose slightly by 1.77%, and found that 1 month of basic white play was wasted;
People who cut a wave of A-share investment, watching the rebound in the past few days finally have a small smiley face, and then have to endure the fight.
Most people who play trading don't have a smile on their faces, and of course they cover the automotive sector. There are also a small number of people who can make a sound, such as placing an order for a new force to wait for a car, selling their own orders, and easily making thousands, or even breaking tens of thousands. For them, the order for the new car price increase in front of them is the value. For example, Tesla 3 times in 8 days rose in price, many cars rose by 20,000, before the order, a shot to earn 3,000 yuan, and play the same. Tesla naturally also knows that it has raised the transaction threshold, and at the beginning of 2022, the order can be directly transferred, and now it has to pick up the car and turn again, increasing the cost of the transaction.
Oil prices rose, 95 # broke 9 yuan, electric vehicle upstream and downstream materials rose, Tesla base operation price increase, upstream and downstream are in their hands BYD also came to the second price adjustment. If you pay attention to electric vehicles, you will find that almost all cars are rising, and 10,000 is a common number.
Oil prices rise, electric vehicle prices rise, boost the large plug mixed plate pure electric?
The relevant omen of price increases, Chinese car companies in the local area, the sense of smell is far more acute than you think. Almost in the first half of 2021, as soon as the news of the BYD DM-i new car with a pure electric endurance of more than 200 kilometers came out, the mainstream Chinese cars have pulled out their own similar technologies, some use DHT, some use oil-electric hybrid + large battery combination, "internal combustion engine + motor" In different scenarios, the Honda i-MMD idea of working alone/collaboratively has become a new main line.
Pure electric endurance of more than 100 kilometers, the daily transportation of the urban area is basically enough, and then for example, BYD declared more than 200 kilometers of the version, the city transportation electricity is lying flat. There is no need to face the endurance anxiety of pure electric vehicles, nor do you have to rush out at 5 o'clock to queue up to grab charging piles. More importantly, for car companies, the smaller the battery capacity used, the better they can control the cost, and the less harmful the battery cost increase.
The cost of lithium carbonate has increased by more than 10 times in 1 year, and now it has broken through 470,000 / ton, running to 500,000 / ton. The battery cost of car companies will also rise, coupled with the decline of new energy subsidies, you will see that most car companies have begun to increase prices, after all, the first market value of Tesla is reluctant to post money to consumers, and others do not have to be too entangled.
Can be charged, but also in most areas to avoid purchase restrictions (in addition to Beijing, the next Shanghai policy is also prepared to only let pure electricity enjoy), can refuel, fuel consumption after feeding is also lower than the traditional fuel vehicles (most of the new cars are nominally 6L/ 100 kilometers or so). On the energy PK traditional fuel vehicles, and even PK Toyota Honda's oil-electric hybrid, because of fuel consumption / purchase restriction / purchase tax, under the PK pure electric vehicle, there is no mileage anxiety / no need to grab charging resources. Coupled with the fact that several car companies have made a big plug into a traditional fuel vehicle with a similar price, it is a win-win situation for consumers and car companies.
In terms of sales figures, the answer is very direct, and the current consumers recognize the inexpensive plug-in/large plug-and-mix. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicle passenger vehicles was 3.334 million units, an increase of 120.6% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy exceeded 20% continuously at the end of the year. It should be noted that the fiercest rush in this set of data is actually not a pure electric vehicle, but a plug-in hybrid vehicle with a year-on-year growth rate (121.6%) that is stronger than the new energy market, and the sales volume has also rushed to 600,000 units. Qin PLUS DM-i sold out 190,000 vehicles, and the ideal ONE that was counted in the PHEV sold out 90,000 vehicles, you can clearly see the heat of the plug and mix, and the strong division of a certain share of traditional fuel vehicles.
And in 2022, the first quarter is not over, the major car companies have begun to initially install and form the new products, the purpose of this time is also very clear, small plug-in (pure electric endurance less than 100 km) and fuel vehicle front just, large plug-in mix, began and pure electric vehicle front just, especially this wave of collective price increases, is an effective boost.
The relevant models that you and I can see in front of you are as follows:
Changan UNI-K iDD: medium-sized SUV, pure electric endurance of 130 km, feed fuel consumption of 5L/100 km, guidance price of 17.69-19.29 million;
Song PLUS DM-i: Compact SUV, pure electric range of more than 100 km model has 3 models, feed fuel consumption of 4.5-5.2L / 100 km, 3 models of guidance price of 16.58-20.58 million;
Tang DM-i: Medium-sized SUV, pure electric range of more than 100 km models have 2 models, feed fuel consumption of 5.5L / 100 km, 2 models of guidance price of 20.58-22.28 million;
Song MAX DM-i: Just listed compact MPV, pure electric range of more than 100 km model has 3 models, feed fuel consumption of 5.4L / 100 km, 3 models of guidance price of 15.58-17.28 million;
Mocha DHT-PHEV: medium-sized SUV, pure electric range of 175-204 km, feed fuel consumption of 5.55-6.3L/100 km, guide price of 295,000-315,000;
Tiggo 8 PLUS Kunpeng e+: pure electric endurance of 100 km, feed fuel consumption of 5L/100 km, model guidance price of 151,800-16.58 million;
Look carefully, in addition to the mocha DHT-PHEV ran to the price of 300,000, several other cars, are lower than the joint venture brand fuel car price, pure electric competitors actually have a range of about 350-450 kilometers, which is obviously a good differentiation.
Therefore, the preliminary conclusion is that if BYD's 200-kilometer pure electric endurance comes up, if the price can be controlled within 250,000, Geely, Chang'an, Great Wall, Chery and so on can quickly keep up. That, because the price and joint venture fuel are basically the same, relying on the advantages of free purchase/high configuration/purchase tax, etc., the difference will be played; it will also be at the same price point against the pure electric vehicle, offsetting the privilege advantage of purchase tax /purchase restriction, because the advantage of supplemental energy is contrasted. In other words, unless the intelligent pure electric vehicle makes a significant advantage in intelligence, it is not easy to face the big plug.
The new problem of big plugs and turns: price increases? Warranty? Immature?
Of course, the iron law is that the birth of new things will also have advantages and disadvantages, so in the face of the momentum of large-scale mixed development, the topics and problems that should be paid attention to are what they are.
In the current wave of price increases, the first question is whether the price will rise. The reality is that in addition to BYD, several other car companies' pure electric endurance plug-in hybrid vehicles of more than 100 kilometers have just been launched, and BYD's DM-i new car production capacity is still tight, and the waiting cycle is about 3 months. From the enterprise side, the supply of products in short supply to adjust the price increase, the negative effect on the enterprise is extremely strong, in addition, for the new entry of the 3 companies, the new technology products have not yet won the basic disk, direct price increase is equivalent to "self-destruction", from the perspective of business logic, the price trend of the big plug is relatively stable, at least in 2022 can be stable.
From the perspective of vehicle technology/engineering, the price increase of large plugs and mixes is not expected to be large, and the core reason is that the battery capacity is small, the cost upward pressure is small, and there are more ways to apportion.
Taking several models that are more popular and the price increase is more obvious as an example, the price of the entire Aian Y series has increased by 10,000, and the battery capacity of its mainstream endurance (version of more than 500 kilometers) is above 61kWh; Tesla, the price has soared, the battery capacity is above 60kWh; BYD, because the main blade battery, is limited to lithium iron phosphate Innate monomer Energy Density is lower than ternary lithium, and its battery capacity is also larger.
In contrast, the battery capacity of the current pure electric range of more than 100 kilometers of large plug-in hybrid models is basically below 30kWh, such as Qin PLUS DM-i is 18.32kWh, Tang DM-i is up to 21.5kWh, and Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS Kunpeng e+ is 19.27kWh. In addition to changan UNI-K iDD of 30.74kWh, Mocha DHT-PHEV of 39.67kWh, the battery cost of most of this technology model is only about one-third of the needs of pure electric models, which is better apportioned. The Great Wall and Changan, because of the rising sales of fuel vehicles, the launch of new products can naturally be shared.
Another point is the quality assurance level. The warranty cycle of new technologies has always been the main source of confidence for consumers to buy, because the technology has not been verified on a long-term scale, and the stability of the later use cannot be guaranteed, and because it involves high-cost complex parts such as three electricity, once the failure occurs in the later stage, the burden on the owner is extremely large.
At present, the warranty of plug-in models is actually very different. For example, the MOCHA DHT-PHEV vehicle is 5 years / 150,000, and the battery warranty is not limited to the first owner;
BYD Qin PLUS DM-i vehicle warranty 6 years / 150,000, battery warranty for the first owner is not limited;
Changan UNI-K iDD Triple Electric Warranty is the first owner unlimited;
Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS Kunpeng e + Vehicle Warranty - The first owner is 6 years / 150,000, and the battery warranty is unlimited for the first owner.
It should be noted that different models of different brands are literally similar in warranty related policies, but the three-electric warranty exemption clause for the first car owner is slightly different. Some models are, after the vehicle is sold, the warranty disappears directly, which will greatly affect the residual value of the second-hand car, and some models have different terms, and the owner must compare and study it before buying it himself.
Of course, there is another deep topic, the power of the big plug and mix, the joint venture brand of similar products are also launched one by one, Toyota / Honda continues to replace the existing model with oil and electricity hybrid, although the cost of Japanese PHEV + hybrid is still not controlled, are floating above 200,000 there is no cost performance, but only with the oil-electricity hybrid, it can compete for the share of the large plug and mix. Nissan, in more models began to apply e-POWER, such as Xuanyi has been equipped, Qashqai will be equipped when the replacement, and even X-Jun is also considering equipment. Although e-POWER cannot enjoy the benefits of purchase restriction and purchase tax at present, because of the fuel consumption data of 4-5L/100 km, the advantages of electric driving texture and other aspects, it can also compete with plug-in/oil-electric hybrid to a certain extent.
Write at the end:
It is possible to predict the next automobile market in this way, because the variables of the automobile market such as international relations, the global epidemic, and the recasting of the global system are extremely large. Whether oil prices will continue to rise, how much oil prices will continue to rise, whether oil prices will retrace, whether the cost of battery raw materials will continue to rise, when will it fall, etc., will directly make the development of the automobile industry slightly, or even move.
However, it should be noted that the variables in the big plug are not large, because Route 2.0 has given a very clear goal for the gradual replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by hybrids. The problems of large plugs and mixed prices, warranty, and technological maturity that can be seen in front of us will also begin to expose different new topics as more and more new car companies join.