The shadow of the global epidemic, the chip supply crisis and the global economic stagnation have made the global car giants suffer, and the sudden sudden change in the situation in Russia and Ukraine is to make the automotive industry worse.
According to the previous more optimistic forecast, the current situation of chip supply shortage is expected to gradually improve in 2022, but according to the current progress of capacity increase, JPMorgan Chase predicts that automotive semiconductors will reach a general oversupply, that is, the earliest time for automotive chips to resume normal supply is also in 2023.
The chip shortage continues to intensify
Even the Chinese market, which is backed by the world's most complete industrial categories, the most complete supply chain and sitting on 1.4 billion consumers, is also difficult to stand alone, and the shortage of automotive chips has become a "heartache" for major OEMs.
From the middle of 2020 to the present, the global "chip famine" of the automobile industry has lasted for nearly two years, and almost all automotive OEMs have competed to use the trick of "eight immortals crossing the sea" in order to compete for chip supply.
However, from another point of view, if it is not the "chip famine" under the epidemic, it may be that most consumers, and even auto industry practitioners, basically stay in the era of mechanical products, and in the long run, it is also intensifying the industry reshuffle.
Behind the chip crisis, its impact is "one body and two sides", and some supplier channels take the opportunity to "hype", which further aggravates the "chaos" of the industry's chip shortage. Affected by this, many brand models on the market have problems such as price increases and allocation reductions, which has aggravated the chaos in the industry. Before the manufacturers frantically increased the price to grab the chip, and then some manufacturers cut production and stopped production, the final impact will be transmitted to the consumer side, so the pain caused by the global "lack of core" is far more serious than consumers think. In the face of a new round of lack of core crisis, how to open a "new situation" from the "chaos" has become a "compulsory course" that the industry needs to face together.
The undercurrent beneath the surface of the car market is turbulent
Judging from the February sales data released recently, the Chinese auto market, which on the surface seems to be unfazed, still reflects the strong resilience of the Chinese economy as a whole, although the month-on-month sales are affected by the traditional Lunar New Year, the decline is almost waist,but it still maintains a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, but careful interpretation, it is not difficult to find that the undercurrent under the water is turbulent.
First of all, in terms of sales volume, the overall sales list of car companies has undergone significant changes, the same is a private enterprise, BYD with a 340% increase in the eyes of the industry, even in the lowest sales month of the year, still achieved sales of nearly 90,000 units. "Lack of core" can bind the hands and feet of most manufacturers, but it is difficult for BYD, a strong vertical integration of the industry, especially from IT to the cross-border strength of the car, in addition, high oil prices for new energy vehicles, but also let BYD for a while the scenery is unique.
In contrast, several local vehicle listed companies with strong performance, whether changan, Great Wall or Geely, even if they sit on a strong product matrix and sales system, but in the face of the universal "lack of core", it is still "difficult for smart women to cook without rice", which has been clarified accordingly in the announcement.
The second is the sales structure, high oil prices for the benefit of new energy, on the other hand, car companies in the face of the "chip shortage", to fundamentally alleviate, it will take time, but for most OEMs, looking forward to tomorrow, transformation on the road, the current more important thing is to adjust the structure, from the product structure, profit structure to make in-depth articles.
To meet the "chip famine", adjusting the structure is the key
In the past few years, in line with the development trend of rejuvenation, luxury brands have taken the initiative to explore, but with the theme of high-quality economic development in the past two years, entry-level consumption has been facing serious overdraft, in order to effectively improve the quality of sales, it is necessary to actively compress the proportion of entry-level models, against the trend to boost the brand, although contrary to the law of entropy increase, but under the challenge of this pressure, it is undoubtedly more prominent at the same time as the head car company is more in line with the long-term strategy.
Among the top three joint venture car companies, compared with the north and south Volkswagen, the sales of high-end products have been frequently blocked in recent years, and SAIC-GM is undoubtedly a typical example of quantity and quality improvement. In order to cope with the problem of lack of cores, since 2021, SAIC-GM has achieved a total sales volume of 1.33 million vehicles throughout the year by optimizing distribution, ensuring key production capacity, and taking multiple measures at the same time, from the perspective of sales structure and transformation of the new four modernizations, it has undoubtedly achieved positive results, of which high-end model sales account for more than 5 percentage points higher than in 2020, and the average transaction price of the three major brands of Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac has also increased by 6%-16% by different margins.
Specifically from the sales structure of each brand and subdivision model, even if the economic environment is strongly impacted, GL8 average sales remain more than 10,000 units in the first two months of this year, GL8 cumulative sales of 25,000 vehicles, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, outperforming the market, from another dimension to interpret, it is not difficult to find that the more unfavorable economic growth, the more consumption returns to the essence, compared to many manufacturers are keen on the concept of hype, even at the expense of price increases, GL8 as a productivity tool for doing business, is the real just need. In terms of SUVs, The sales of Theonco Banner last year increased by 47.2% year-on-year, and this year it ushered in the opening and continued to maintain the growth trend; the main sales of SUVs, the Oncoway Plus and the Oncovey S of the Unkeway Car Series are currently in the prime of the product cycle, and the Sales of the Oncovey Car Series in February was nearly 12,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.53%.
The trend of the Buick brand actually reflects the real situation that most of the joint venture brands are currently facing, and it is indeed difficult to make a difference in the market segment of more than 300,000 at present, but it is also a natural process.
Among luxury brands, compared with the sinking of Audi, the leading edge of Mercedes-Benz and BMW has been further expanded, and the Cadillac brand under SAIC-GM is also a remarkable real case, although the economic environment is not good, but the overall look, in the face of more and more mature and rational consumers, it is more and more stable, it seems to be more and more comfortable. CT6 sales last month increased by 3.8% year-on-year, CT5 sales exceeded 10,000 units in the first two months, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year; XT5 sold 8331 units in the first two months of this year, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year.
Among them, cadillac CT5's high-end model sales accounted for up to 95%, at the same time, with the increasing stabilization of ATP transaction prices, so that the price system of the entire brand is more healthy, with the market performance of CT5, it is not difficult to foresee, with the gradual fading of chip impact, SAIC-GM is expected to return strongly, the current chip under the influence of CT5 sales has exceeded 6000, CT5 will be expected to directly compete with "34C", while helping Cadillac to achieve the strength to compete with BBA.
The upward sales structure has a positive significance for improving the anti-risk ability and profitability of enterprises, and can also provide a stable and solid foundation for the development of enterprise electrification and intelligent networking, the transformation of the "new four modernizations" is not smooth, and the head effect is becoming more and more obvious.
Looking back at the process of human development, whether it is the first industrial revolution or the second industrial revolution, it has brought exponential changes to the prosperity of human civilization, but every turn and upgrade of the stall is full of pain. Just as the so-called "subtleties see the style, the millimeter of the excellent determination", behind the sales adjustment structure, it is necessary to uphold the strategic determination of high-quality development, not a day's work!