In the past few days, the oil price problem has touched the hearts of many fuel vehicle owners, and even once on the hot search list of a social platform, becoming one of the hot events of the industry.
Due to the tense situation in Eastern Europe, the market is worried about the supply problem, the international crude oil price rose significantly in the early stage, and in this pricing cycle, the overall trend of high volatility is presented. The rise in international oil prices will directly increase the cost of crude oil imports on the mainland, which in turn will affect the refined oil and chemical raw materials downstream of the industrial chain, and will also raise the cost of raw materials in many industries and transmit to the consumer side through the production chain, resulting in an increase in inflation.
On the afternoon of March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission officially announced a new round of oil prices, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively, ushering in the "five consecutive increases" this year. On average, No. 92 gasoline was raised by 0.59 yuan per liter; No. 95 gasoline was raised by 0.62 yuan per liter, taking Beijing as an example, after price adjustment, The price of No. 92 gasoline was 8.64 yuan / liter, and No. 95 gasoline reached 9.18 yuan / liter. According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of the general household car fuel tank, it will cost 432 yuan to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline, an increase of 29.5 yuan.
If a model runs 2,000 kilometers a month and consumes 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers, the monthly refueling cost will reach 1382.4 yuan after the price adjustment. Therefore, some netizens have directly called "the flesh pain of rising oil prices", so that many car owners have the saying that "they can afford to drive a car and cannot add oil", and said that "filling a tank of oil can buy a bicycle, adding four tanks of oil can buy an electric (self)car".
For the future trend of oil prices, the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission expects that both supply and demand factors will have an impact on oil prices in the short term, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still the biggest uncertainty affecting oil prices.
On the supply side, concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply have not been effectively alleviated, and the International Energy Agency expects Russia's crude oil production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day to be forced to close due to export blockages. Major crude oil consumers in Europe and the United States and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are still in a game over whether to increase production efforts.
On the demand side, high oil prices and the rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in some areas have had a dampening effect on crude oil demand. On the whole, oil prices will be dominated by shock operations in the later period, and if Russia and Ukraine reach an armistice agreement, oil prices will still have a relatively large room for decline.
Liu Manping, an energy expert, also said that the previous high oil prices were mainly caused by the irrational rise in the market caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, "but this impact is short-term, once the market adapts to this factor, or the conflict is alleviated, oil prices will definitely fall." ”
All in all, the future trend of oil prices still needs to further observe the international situation, but this round of oil price increases does not seem to have an impact on electric vehicle owners, it can be said that it can even drive consumer demand for new energy vehicles. Some car owners said that "the electric car I bought a few years ago, I instantly felt that I was very wise", "Should I sell the oil car for a new energy vehicle" and so on.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also said recently, "This year's domestic oil prices hit a new high in the past 10 years in March, and the high oil prices directly pushed up the daily commuting costs of fuel vehicles, and continued to expand the base plate for the further promotion of new energy and even oil-electric hybrid technology." ”
Some netizens believe that oil prices have risen, and there is also a subsidy policy this year, and it is certainly appropriate to buy an electric vehicle at this time. Is this really the case? In fact, consumers are also facing difficulties when purchasing new energy vehicles, which is mainly reflected in the rise in raw materials and the decline in subsidies this year, which has led to an increase in the price of new energy models, which directly increases the cost of car purchase.
On March 15, the day when consumers were generally concerned about the 315 party, Tesla officially raised the price of the two main sales models Model Y and Model 3, with the largest increase of 20,000 yuan. Two days later, the price of Tesla's Model Y rear-wheel drive version was also raised by 15,060 yuan to 316,900 yuan.
Also on March 15, BYD officially announced that from 0:00 on March 16, the price of its 10 models was adjusted, with an increase of 3,000-6,000 yuan, covering the two series of models of Dynasty and Ocean, which is also the second round of price increases opened by BYD this year, the first round on January 21, Qin, Han and other Dynasty series models and Dolphin and other marine series models rose by 1,000 yuan -7,000 yuan.
Chery New Energy's small ants and QQ ice cream also began to increase prices on the 17th, ranging from 3,000-7,100 yuan. In addition, the network rumor that Xiaopeng Automobile will raise the price of all models on March 21, of which P7 will increase by 20,000 yuan, P5 and G3i will increase by 10,000 yuan, although the current news has not been officially confirmed, but it also shows that the price increase may be sooner or later.
In fact, since entering 2022, at least nearly 20 car companies have announced price increases for new energy models, ranging from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.
It should be noted that the national subsidy for new energy vehicles was originally scheduled to end on December 31, 2022, and all new energy vehicles on the plate after December 31 will no longer enjoy subsidies, and the purchase tax exemption policy will also be cancelled, which will greatly increase the purchase cost of new energy models. At that time, it is also a time when new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles are competing head-on, and the cost of purchasing new energy vehicles at the same level must be higher than that of fuel vehicles, but the cost of using vehicles must be lower than that of fuel vehicles.
If as a prospective consumer holding currency to be purchased, on the one hand, the cost of oil vehicles is increased, and on the other hand, the cost of new energy vehicles is increased, obviously the cost of this needs to be comprehensively estimated. For example, bydir Qin EV this round of price increase of 6,000 yuan, if you add subsidies (12474 yuan) and the amount of purchase tax, the cost of car purchase at least on the basis of the current price, increased by more than 15,000 yuan, if this part of the increased cost, used in the same price of fuel vehicles, enough to support the increase in the cost of oil how long. Only when this account is roughly calculated can we make a better choice
Written in the end: At present, affected by multiple factors such as oil prices, chips, and battery raw materials, there is a situation where consumer oil vehicles "cannot afford to refuel", and new energy models "cannot afford to buy cars", but these are caused by uncontrollable reasons, and whether the rise in oil prices can form a demand for abandoned oil and electricity conversion will be worthy of attention. To be sure, both the rise in oil prices and the rise in car prices have brought uncertainty to the Chinese auto market.
Some industry insiders have analyzed that if oil prices continue to rise, it will continue to be good for new energy vehicles. If the price of oil prices is adjusted, and the price of new energy vehicles is raised again due to factors such as the rise in raw materials, then most consumers will be inclined to buy fuel vehicles. In particular, until next year, the subsidy will completely decline, and the new energy vehicle market will lose policy support, whether it can still become the primary choice for consumers, or whether the existing new energy subsidy policy can be extended in order to encourage the sustainable development of new energy vehicles (after all, there are already such voices during the two sessions this year), we will wait and see.