When 5G mobile phone shipments are declining, what is the reason for the rebound of 4G mobile phones against the trend?

Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 5G license in 2019, the 5G commercial process has been greatly accelerated, and 5G mobile phones have begun to flock to the market rapidly, and the price has dropped to 1,000 yuan. In addition to Huawei's launch of several 4G mobile phones due to chip reasons, almost all the new machines released on the market in recent years have been covered by 5G mobile phones, and the 4G era seems to be getting away from us.

However, the latest data disclosed by the agency shows that domestic 5G mobile phone shipments are declining year-on-year, while the shipments of 4G mobile phones have rebounded for the first time in the past two years.

What does the above data performance that is diametrically opposed to market trends illustrate? Does it mean that while the 5G mobile phone follow-up is weak, the 4G mobile phone will usher in the "second spring"?

5G mobile phone shipments fell year-on-year, and 4G mobile phones rebounded for the first time

Recently, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released domestic mobile phone shipment data show that in January 2022, domestic mobile phone shipments of 33 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, of which domestic 5G mobile phone shipments of 26.322 million units, down 3.5% year-on-year, accounting for 79.7% of mobile phone shipments in the same period, this shipment also hit a new low since October 2021 for four months.

Through horizontal comparison, it was found that in November 2021, domestic 5G mobile phone shipments accounted for 82.2% of mobile phone shipments in the same period, which can be said to be the milestone of 5G mobile phone shipments exceeding 80% for the first time.

However, the good times are not long, in the next December and January 2022, 5G mobile phone shipments and proportion began to decline at the same time. In December 2021, 5G mobile phone shipments and proportion have declined, with shipments of 27.15 million units, a decrease of 1.82 million units from November; 5G mobile phones accounted for 81%, also 1% lower than the previous month.

Not only is shipments declining year-on-year, but there is also a sharp decline in the number of new machines listed on 5G mobile phones. In January 2022, 30 new models of mobile phones were listed in the domestic market, down 43.4% year-on-year, of which 15 were 5G mobile phones, down 53.1% year-on-year, accounting for 50.0% of the number of new models listed in mobile phones in the same period.

At the time when 5G mobile phones are "cold", 4G mobile phones have shown a very different market performance.

According to the data of the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the domestic 4G mobile phone shipments reached 6.42 million units in January 2022, while in November and December 2021, the shipments were 5.99 million units and 5.89 million units, respectively, that is, the rebound in 4G mobile phone shipments and the decline in 5G mobile phones appeared in the end of 20221 and the beginning of 20221.

IDC mobile phone quarterly tracking report also shows that during the second anniversary of the official entry of domestic 5G into commercial use and 5G terminals becoming the mainstream of the domestic market, 5G mobile phones accounted for 77.0% of the overall market shipments in the third quarter of 2021. However, compared with 5G mobile phones with a large market share, what is more striking is the proportion of 4G mobile phones that rebounded for the first time under the continuous downturn in market performance.

IDC pointed out that in the third quarter of 2021, the proportion of domestic 4G mobile phone shipments rebounded for the first time in nearly two years. On the one hand, due to the impact of chips, Huawei has to turn sharply to 4G products; on the other hand, for other head mobile phone manufacturers, entry-level 4G products still have clear and continuous demand in the market, and there are still many new 4G machines released in the second half of 2021.

It is true that in the context of the rapid progress of 5G terminal products in the market, although the proportion of 4G mobile phone shipments has fluctuated to a certain extent, 5G is still the trend of the times. However, behind the fluctuations also means that entry-level, cost-effective 4G mobile phones still "capture" the purchasing power of some consumers. While taking the high-end product route, mobile phone manufacturers cannot ignore the continuous investment in low-end mobile phones, which is also a way to increase shipments and quickly seize market share.

Behind the "contradiction" of shipments: the double pressure of market share and selling price

Although from the data point of view, the recent 5G mobile phone seems to be going "downhill", 4G, 5G mobile phone shipments of the trend is also quite "contradictory", but the industry believes that "the data only represents the shipment, but the specific product market sales situation is not yet certain, so only to see the change in the volume does not fully reflect the market performance of 4G or 5G mobile phones." ”

Talking about the year-on-year decline in 5G mobile phone shipments, another industry source pointed out that there is no essential difference in the experience between 5G mobile phones and 4G mobile phones, "At least at present, this application environment is not in the case of explosive applications, and users themselves are relatively indifferent to 5G and 4G mobile phones, and there is no obvious difference." ”

Second, at present, in the replacement market, if there is no essential difference in performance between iPhone 12 and iPhone 13, Apple users' desire to change machines is relatively low, coupled with the impact of the lack of iPhone 13 series mobile phones, which has led to the recent shrinkage of overall 5G mobile phone shipments.

Third, because the price of some Apple mobile phones has been pressed to about four thousand yuan, in such a low price, the domestic main high-end market Android 5G mobile phone manufacturers obviously can not compete with Apple, so the impetus to the high-end is not too strong.

Fourth, at the end of the year, the 4G manufacturers' pulling attitude in the promotion node is also more positive, and the use of promotional nodes to launch preferential activities can also be a good way to drive product inventory.

The person further pointed out that although it is accompanied by a decline and an upward trend, on the whole, 5G mobile phones account for about 80% of the mainstream of the mobile phone market.

However, in the current domestic entry-level mobile phone market at a price of 100 yuan and 1,000 yuan, the optional 5G mobile phone types are not rich, which also gives 4G mobile phones a great opportunity, after all, the mainland low-end mobile phone market still has a huge market space. It is precisely because 4G mobile phones have the advantages of low cost and high cost performance, so while the 5G process is accelerating and driving the growth of 5G mobile phones, 4G mobile phones still have a considerable part of the consumer group.

At the same time, the emergence of the 5G wave is considered by many mobile phone brand manufacturers to be the opportunity to enter the high-end market, and they have increased their efforts to impact higher-priced models, but have reduced their investment in low-end products.

The current situation is that even if users buy 5G mobile phones, but considering the package tariff standard of hundreds of yuan, most people still use 4G network packages, which also causes the phenomenon of 5G mobile phones being used as 4G.

Industry chain people pointed out that the current price of domestic 5G mobile phones is much higher than 4G mobile phones, in general, the starting price of high-end models is often 6, 7000 yuan, and low-end models are at least 1,000 to 3,000 yuan, even if there are models below 1500 yuan, the performance is far less than the same price of 4G mobile phones. From the perspective of consumers, the key to expanding the market share of 5G mobile phones is not the breakthrough of high-end models, but in the low-end market, especially whether there can be a perfect replacement for 4G mobile phones. When the product sinks to the low-end market and grabs enough market share, then the manufacturer will most likely get a good sales performance.

In the early morning of March 8, Apple officially launched the iPhone SE 3 at the spring conference, basically maintaining the same design as the iPhone SE 2, and upgrading to 5G, and the price point has also dropped to 3499 yuan, coming to the price range of Android flagships. Earlier, the series of products only supported the 4G version, that is to say, the iPhone SE 3 will become Apple's lowest priced 5G mobile phone, which will undoubtedly further stimulate the domestic 5G mobile phone market sales.

(Proofreading/Xiao wei)