This week, the so-called "young people don't like to buy mobile phones" has become the focus of media reports, the core content point is that the user's replacement cycle has been further extended, which mostly cites the average replacement cycle given by industry analysis company Counterpoint has exceeded 31 months, and the average replacement cycle of Chinese users at market research institute Strategy Analytics has exceeded 28 months. Data from the Domestic Academy of Information and Communications Technology also shows that from January to February this year, the total shipments of the domestic mobile phone market fell by 22.6%, of which 5G mobile phones fell by 11%.
In this regard, some people have thrown out doubts about 5G, believing that it is useless to change 5G, and there are also operators suspected of making KPIs, which is disgusting 5G package marketing. So, if the phone doesn't sell well, is it the fault of 5G?
No, this is the law of history
One of the mainstream views is that, without any hurry, look at the historical laws that have already happened. The generation of communication technology is generally an odd number of development, even number of perfect prosperity, so with the breakthrough of network speed quality brought by 3G, 4G ushered in the explosion of mobile Internet.
Recall the initial terminal form of the 3G era, such as the flagship models of nokia's N series, 3G cellular network capabilities, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth are many, and some models even have FM transmission functions. Obviously, it can be said to be no essential difference in connectivity from today's smartphones, but looking back now, it is still using the thinking of the 2G era to do the 3G/4G era of mobile phones.
What made 3G/4G an important place today was undoubtedly the advent of the iPhone, even though the first iPhone was only introduced in 2007 and was only a 2G model. Previously, Japan had opened 3G services in June 2000, and Europe and the United States had also opened in 2003. This means that the killer applications of the 3G/4G era that many people did not expect at that time appeared after the 3G network was opened 7 years later. Therefore, if people can only find out in 2027 that 5G consumer terminals have just begun to see the beginning, it should not be surprised, and now for the public, there may only be waiting. It should be added here that a year after the iPhone was introduced, the controversial TD-SCDMA standard was finally put into commercial use.
Subsequently, smart phones began to gradually mature, followed by Kik applications rushing to, and finally WeChat relied on Tencent's advantages in user relations to emerge in China, so that Xiaomi has long stopped mentioning its so-called triathlon. The international market LINE, Facebook Message, and Apple's iMessage have also gained a large number of markets. Here we have to add that at the beginning of the kik application, the industry pointed out that the user relationship of telecom operators was the most comprehensive (at that time, it was given priority to leave mobile phone numbers, rather than Adding WeChat), and then there was no more, Fetion has now become a campus memory.
Yes, this is the technical setting
On the one hand, we need to be patient and wait for the industry to tap 5G/6G, on the other hand, there is a realistic problem, that is, many functional features in 5G, most of which are inclined to the ToB field, and the proportion of ToC is obviously small, but the expansion of the ToB field is obviously insufficient.
A simple phenomenon is that when it comes to intelligent manufacturing, people in the industrial field generally say that the price of 5G communication modules is still too high. The communication module manufacturers are already profitable, and the burden of price reduction has shifted to the chip manufacturers. But the problem of chip manufacturers is the supply chain is tight, foundries in recent years is difficult to produce more chips, followed by price increases, if you want to get the goods on time, you have to add money to solve. In the end, the price of the communication module is still not down.
Vertical industries are traditional fields, and people in enterprises are not sensitive enough to digital transformation. According to a data service provider, some of the company's large financial customers have used less than 5 businesses after building the platform, and only in order to complete the goal of digital transformation, the empowerment and transformation brought by the company is minimal. For the transformation of 5G factories, if the traditional vertical industry can not see the source of power, but need to invest a lot of money, in today's situation, it is very difficult.
For businesses like autonomous driving, considering the issue of safety, if autonomous driving in science fiction movies is to be applied to the general public, it is difficult to hope in the 5G era. Consumers still need a long waiting process.
Don't rest on your laurels
At the moment when the smartphone industry is sluggish, we should also admit that domestic brands have made great progress compared with the 3G era, becoming pioneer officials in the 5G era and keeping up with the pace of the times. Avoiding the embarrassment of the 3G era, a large number of fuselages are technically inferior to parallel goods, and mobile phones without Wi-Fi and mobile phones that only support a certain 3G standard have become a forgotten history.
Now, at a time when the answer to what 5G smartphones should look like is unknown, eSIM, millimeter wave, UWB and other technologies may not be part of the smartphone that is missing at every turn. No one is sure what these technologies will look like in the future, after all, who remembers what WAPI is?
In addition, individual mobile phone manufacturers should not be sarcastic about 5G for any reason. At least the next movie is much faster than before, and the 1080p level of film and television episodes can't go back on the phone. Game manufacturers should also think about how to let mobile phone users enjoy lower latency, and can gain something in the showdown, so that consumers can gradually appreciate the charm of 5G.
For telecom operators, don't always roughly market for 5G packages, consumers are not fools, they can't move for more than 100 yuan a month, how can there be about 30 yuan with incense. Less harassing calls, more thinking about how the charm of 5G is played is the right topic, the 4G era has been saturated Kik applications, now the 5G era, but also to engage in a handful, it is really difficult to see hope.
In the face of bottlenecked smartphones, perhaps the industry should think more about the future and have fewer internal volumes. Consumers have more patience and wait for the next surprise.