Author: Zhao Xiaofei
IoT Think Tank Original
Guide
2G/3G network withdrawal is the trend of the global trend, but 2G/3G network withdrawal is also a systematic project, which cannot be completed in the short term.
Recently, the 3G network withdrawal in the United States has received much attention, because according to the plans of the three largest operators in the United States, the 3G network will be closed in 2022, and the 3G network that has served American users for more than a decade has completely withdrawn from the historical stage, but a series of problems brought about by the withdrawal of the network have also begun to stand out.
China has also started the pace of 2G/3G network retirement, but for this process, we need to be prepared for a long-term battle.
3G is coming to an end in the United States
According to the plan, the three largest U.S. operators, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, are all expected to completely shut down 3G networks this year, of which AT&T plans to shut down 3G networks at the end of February, T-Mobile plans to shut down in two batches on March 31 and July 1, and Verizon at the end of this year.
It is natural to eliminate old networks and withdraw from spectrum resources to develop 4G and 5G, but the closure of 3G networks affects millions of users.
Take AT&T, for example, in its annual report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, that about 5% of postpaid users use 3G mobile phones. Recently, AT&T's filing with the Federal Communications Commission mentioned that about 2.7 million customers will be affected by its 3G shutdown. AT&T expects to spend about $380 million shutting down its 3G network in the coming months.
However, it is worth noting that although AT&T has been instilling plans for 3G network withdrawal to users several years ago, there has been some resistance to the recent 3G network withdrawal, and many companies and public organizations have asked the Federal Communications Commission and AT&T to postpone the 3G network withdrawal schedule, including the NATIONAL PUBLIC SECURITY Telecommunications Commission, the Security Industry Communications Commission, etc., such as the Security Industry Communications Commission has identified, AT& Plans to shut down 3G networks will affect millions of alarms installed in homes and businesses across the United States. One manufacturer of electronic surveillance equipment for the U.S. criminal justice system once mentioned that AT&T's shutdown of 3G networks would pose a "significant public safety risk" and "put enormous pressure on law enforcement resources" because law enforcement agencies across the country use surveillance devices to track criminals who are not in prison, some of which still use AT&T's 3G networks to provide network connectivity.
Analysts at some research institutions also pointed out that AT&T shut down 3G networks, in addition to affecting iPads, mobile phones and laptops connected to 3G networks, more important is medical equipment, security alerts, voice assistants and on-board communication devices. These devices, most of them IoT devices, have a long life cycle.
Of course, AT&T has some experience in network retirement, and the operator once shut down 1G networks in 2000 and 2G networks in 2017. Especially when shutting down the 2G network, there are still 4 million users running on the 2G network, and most of these users are Internet of Things users, AT&T has successfully achieved 2G retirement through various means. Whether the 3G network withdrawal process is smooth, we will wait and see.
Domestic 2G/3G network withdrawal: there are still more than 2 million base stations
In China, in recent years, the call for 2G/3G network withdrawal has been very high, and the support of relevant policies has also been increasing.
As early as a press conference in 2019, Wen Ku, then director of the Department of Information and Communications of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that "the conditions for the withdrawal of 2G and 3G of the mainland mobile communication network have gradually matured", which is the first official statement on the withdrawal of 2G/3G.
In May 2020, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the Notice on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Development of the Mobile Internet of Things (Circular No. 25), which clearly proposed to "promote the migration and transfer of 2G/3G Internet of Things services" at the beginning of the notice.
In November 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" Information and Communication Industry Development Plan, which clearly proposed to "accelerate the withdrawal of 2G and 3G networks, and coordinate the coordinated development of 4G and 5G networks", and listed 2G/3G network withdrawal as the key work of network infrastructure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
2G/3G has a history of more than 20 years, and there is still a huge scale of infrastructure that carries a large number of users, so the pace of network retirement cannot be completed in the short term.
From the perspective of infrastructure, mobile communication base stations are the core fixed assets of the industry, and the size of the base stations determines the capacity of access users, the quality of networks and the quality of service. In the past 2021, the number of mobile communication base stations in China has once again reached a new high.
2011-2021 Number of mobile communication base stations in China (Unit: Wan, Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Internet of Things Think Tank Mapping)
In 2021, the number of mobile communication base stations nationwide reached 9.96 million, compared with 1.75 million in 2011, an increase of nearly 8.21 million base stations in 10 years. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total number of base stations in 2021 increased by 650,000, of which the total number of 4G base stations reached 5.9 million; the construction of 5G networks is steadily advancing, in accordance with the principle of moderate advancement, more than 650,000 new 5G base stations have been built, and all 5G base stations have been opened more than 1.425 million, of which 840,000 5G base stations have been jointly built and shared.
2014-2021 Changes in the structure of different standard base stations (Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Internet of Things Think Tank Mapping)
Synthesizing the number of different standard base stations, we find that mobile communication base stations are undergoing structural changes: from 2G+3G base stations to 4G base stations, the future will usher in a decline in the number of 2G+3G base stations and an increase in the number of 5G base stations.
However, we can see that although the call for 2G/3G to withdraw from the network is very high, at least from the data of the past 2 years, the absolute size of 2G+3G base stations has not declined rapidly. By the end of 2021, the number of 2G+3G base stations was still 2.635 million, much higher than the number of 5G base stations of 1.425 million in the same period, and the net decrease in the number of 210,000 in the past year was less than 210,000.
The size of 2.635 million base stations is not a small number, accounting for more than 26% of the total number of base stations. In the past two years, the number of 2G+3G base stations has decreased slowly, and in the author's opinion, behind it is 2G and 3G that still carry a huge user scale.
The key is the migration of IoT users to the private network
Among the users carried by 2G and 3G, there are some mobile phone users, but the most is still the Internet of Things users, and the most difficult to exit the service is also the Internet of Things users, and the current number of users in this part can not be underestimated.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of 2021, the three basic telecom companies will have 1.399 billion cellular IoT users, a net increase of 264 million households for the whole year. IoT terminals are widely used in smart utilities, intelligent manufacturing, smart transportation and other fields, and the number of IoT terminals deployed in these three key areas reached 314 million, 254 million and 218 million households respectively.
Number of mobile IoT connections (unit: 100 million, source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, IoT think tank mapping)
As we all know, before 2020, the number of NB-IoT connections is less than 100 million, and LTE Cat.1 has not yet begun to develop on a large scale, so IoT terminals based on cellular networks are mainly accessed through 2G and 3G, especially 2G carries most of the cellular IoT connections. Based on this, most of the 1.03 billion connections in 2019 are 2G/3G-borne IoT connections. Even after the next 2 years of "squeezing water" and the migration to NB-IoT and Cat.1, the remaining stock is still hundreds of millions of dollars.
In fact, in response to the 2G/3G network withdrawal, operators have issued a number of policies, such as China Unicom on many occasions to accelerate the 2G network withdrawal, China Mobile in June 2020 issued a document "decided to stop the addition of 2G Internet of Things users by the end of 2020" plan, to promote the development plan of the medium and low speed Internet of Things, etc.
Recently, a notice of "about 2/3G network subscription restrictions" of China Mobile came out again, "Since March 1, new mobile users who open 1G and below must choose NB or 4G cat.1 packages, and the system will soon turn off the 2/3G network by default and cannot be opened."
Of course, whether it is to stop adding new 2G IoT users, or 2/3G network subscription restrictions, it is a 2G/3G restriction on incremental aspects, and the existing IoT users still have to provide services for them, and the 2G/3G network cannot be shut down, which makes the 2G/3G network withdrawal process last for a long time.
On the one hand, the characteristics of IoT users are long life cycles, on the other hand, many key production and operation scenarios applied to enterprises in various industries, these characteristics determine that there must be continuous network services, and the cost of replacing the network is very high. For example, the UK's Spectrum Policy Steering Committee pointed out in a recent report that the UK's 2G network needs to maintain service until at least the 2030s, because in addition to the demand for 2G networks by a small number of mobile phone users, the UK's smart meters and the EU-led eCall rescue system rely on 2G network support. Taking smart meters as an example, the UK's smart meter retrofit plan will be completed in 2024, and the design service time is at least 15 years, in the process, the change and upgrade of the smart meter communication standard will incur high costs.
It can be expected that the domestic 2G/3G network withdrawal will go through a long process. As Wenku said at the press conference, "From the perspective of users, mobile network withdrawal can not simply say that today is retired, tomorrow will be pulled, this is not appropriate; to plan in advance for network withdrawal." The mobile network withdrawal of the operating enterprise should be planned and informed early, so that the users and the operating enterprises themselves have sufficient time and psychological preparation to promote the process of retiring the network", be prepared for long-distance running, but also make full planning.