Written by 丨 Yang Zhou Editor 丨 Zhang Rui Produced 丨 Tencent News Gu Yu Studio
Since being tested in South Africa in early November last year, Omi kerong has swept the globe in just a few months and produced multiple subtypes of the virus. What is now spreading across the country is the BA.2 variant of Aomi Kerong.
The data since March illustrate the severe challenges brought by the BA.2 strain - on March 11, the number of new asymptomatic infected people in a single day in the country exceeded 1,000, and in the following days, the number of new local confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected people continued to exceed 1,000 per day, and the cumulative number of new new coronavirus infections in the country has exceeded 10,000.
According to Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, the BA.2 strain is the fastest spreading of the existing new crown strains. In the Hong Kong experience, often between nucleic acid testing and waiting for results, positive infected people infect themselves with the virus to others.
On March 14, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University in Shanghai, mentioned in a Weibo post the difficult situation of Shanghai's response to the BA.2 strain: "Due to the large number of cases in a short period of time, it is inevitable that there will be some panic across the country, and Shanghai is no exception. Shanghai's precise prevention and control At the time of the spread of the Aomi Kerong BA.2, due to the sudden occurrence, late start, and fast virus, it is still in the stage of running with the virus, and it feels very difficult. ”
Shanghai residents conduct nucleic acid testing and sampling in an orderly manner People's Vision
This also means that running alongside the BA.2 strain will become the primary problem in the fight against the epidemic in more parts of the country in the next period of time.
Since the outbreak of the fifth wave of the epidemic on February 5, Hong Kong has experienced a continuous high incidence period of the epidemic for more than a month, and the number of new infection cases per day has continued to rise, according to the data released by the Center for Health Protection of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government on the 14th, as of 00:00 on the same day, Hong Kong has added 26,908 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia.
As for dealing with the BA.2 strain, Hong Kong has had more than a month of experience. Jin Dongyan introduced to us that in order to reduce the cross-infection of people gathering in the nucleic acid testing process, the Hong Kong SAR government opened the antigen detection channel for residents at the end of February. Hong Kong residents can now receive an antigen test kit, take nasal swabs at home and report the results online.
Antigen detection, that is, testing whether a sample contains a certain protein on the surface of the new crown virus - compared to nucleic acid detection that requires the detection of gene fragments, antigen detection is more convenient and rapid, and can be completed in 15-30 minutes. Of course, the sensitivity of antigen detection is low, but Jin Dongyan said that this does not affect the detection effect, "it is high sensitivity for people with high viral load, and can be done continuously (detection)". From the existing experience abroad, it can be judged whether the nucleic acid test results are infected with the new crown, and the antigen test results can be used to judge the infectivity.
On March 15, the National Health Commission and the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine organized experts to form the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (Trial Ninth Edition)", which is supplemented by antigen detection on the basis of nucleic acid testing to further improve the ability to detect cases early. It also emphasizes the classification and treatment of cases, and the centralized isolation management of mild cases, rather than unified income in designated hospitals. This means that antigen testing is also about to enter our lives.
Jin Dongyan told us several times late last year and early January that he believed the emergence of Aomi Kerong and its variants heralded the end of the pandemic. In just a few months, Omi Kerong and the whole world have changed so much that even if it is impossible to predict when the inflection point of the epidemic in Hong Kong or the mainland will come, he still believes in the objective law of virus mutation and is still confident that the epidemic will end this year.
What kind of world will we face after the BA.2 strain is fully arrived? How will our lives change because of this strain? No one can predict it today. Perhaps everything is as Zhang Wenhong said, "For this virus, eliminating fear is the first step we must take." ”
The following is the dictation of Jin Dongyan:
The most contagious and least pathogenic strain
This time, the strain of the Omikejong variant BA.2 was transmitted, which is currently the most contagious and least pathogenic strain in the world. In this round of transmission in Hong Kong, it is mostly a breakthrough infection, most patients have particularly mild symptoms, many are still asymptomatic, and the throat itch is over. A lot of people get vaccinated very effectively, some people aren't that effective, but basically two or three shots of the vaccine are effective.
Many of Hong Kong's critically ill patients are elderly people who have not been vaccinated, and more than 89% of people have not completed two doses of vaccines. In fact, 99.9% of people are mild and asymptomatic, which is the first important concept. The second is that if you don't get vaccinated, older people will die. We've said this many times over the past year or so.
The elderly in the Hong Kong Elderly Home are quarantined by the people's vision
The strain has a short window of infection in people who have been vaccinated, and antibodies begin to come out the next and third days. Out of the old high, it is equivalent to a special drug, it itself to fight this virus, after the fight it will not be contagious.
This virus can be doubled in 1.2 days, in Hong Kong it is doubled in two or three days, this is already a social distancing measure has played a role, it will spread so fast, this is the law of the virus itself, this virus is very contagious.
This spread in Hong Kong was an accident that happened by chance, and of course there are some lessons to be learned. The source was a pakistani couple, the woman returned to Hong Kong, in the epidemic prevention hotel infected, home to the husband, the husband in the process of scavenging to the cleaners in the building. Maybe this person is in better health, may have a higher mobility, she walks up and down, etc., anyway, she is a super spreader, passing the virus to many people on all floors.
There were some missteps among us, but not intentionally. We do it according to the rules of the past, test the whole people, fence this building, know that there is an infected person, we let everyone do nucleic acid, all negative you can go, the positive will stay, we do the same. But these negative people, who were actually infected, spread elsewhere, and by the time we found them the next or third day, it was too late. In fact, the nucleic acid test was done twice, the first time was too early, the second time was too late, and he had already passed it on to others in the middle.
Therefore, how many times to do nucleic acid testing is not necessarily effective. Like this is an example, we later made them nucleic acid every day for five days to extinguish the epidemic, but before this the virus had secretly spread beyond this building. We have also extinguished the virus in this community, but the people in this community have already spread this virus outside the village and spread to the whole of Hong Kong, so we can't catch up. We originally walked in front of the virus, and now the virus has run by, you can't run it, in fact, this is the case, so the main blame is to blame the virus for spreading too fast.
Other cities in our interior should also learn this lesson, and it is also possible that they will lose their hands. Hong Kong had almost 100 days before this was zero diagnosis, so this was an accident, in the end, it was like this, and it was a precautionary measure to prevent this accident.
The characteristics of the spread of the new crown virus are like this, it is a super transmission in a small number of people, a transmission of ten or even a hundred, can not stop it, then it fails. This can happen in any of our cities, anywhere, as long as we don't pay attention, it will still happen, if there are a few super-spreaders, it will be immediately spread. So the danger is definitely there.
The number of confirmed cases in these days is almost 30,000 or so, and today it seems to be 26,900. From the data of some mathematical models, it is a decline compared to the previous days, but in recent days it has been close to thirty thousand, some people say that it is at the peak of the peak, some people say that he has turned the inflection point, or can not be very accurate. Because there are still a considerable number of citizens who may have never done testing, and some citizens who have done testing may not report to the SAR government, if these two factors are put in it, there is still a little uncertainty. About 700,000 people in Hong Kong are now infected, and now 9.3% (the proportion of the total population). If you add these data later, it should be more than 10%.
Hong Kong Tsing Yi Fang Cabin Hospital People's Vision
Antigen testing is done with a fast hit
Since 25 February, the Hong Kong SAR government has recognized antigen testing, thereby significantly reducing the demand and pressure on nucleic acid testing. Because at that time, we also strongly reflected that although many medical workers in the mainland came to help, they really couldn't catch up, so they engaged in nucleic acid testing, and a large number of residents ran to the open space every day to queue for a few hours, and then went to wait for a nucleic acid, so that in the case that many people were already infected, the epidemic would definitely expand.
Therefore, we suggested that we should not engage in so many nucleic acids, give play to the role of antigens, and recognize antigen testing, and as a result, the mainland expert group and the Hong Kong SAR government later listened to the opinions of all sides and changed. The advantage of antigen testing is that it is simple, it is fast to hit fast, the results come out immediately in 15 minutes, and if it is positive, the person can be isolated.
Staff packs rapid test kits for new coronavirus antigens People's Vision
I've been talking about this for two years, and I've been talking about it since the end of the epidemic in Wuhan, and that's the direction it should go.
The sensitivity of antigen detection will be lower, but this does not matter, it is high sensitivity for people with high viral load, and it can also be done continuously, three days a day to test antigens, certainly the combined sensitivity must be higher than three days to do nucleic acid testing only once. Nucleic acid testing is sometimes useless, nucleic acid testing is sensitive, but some people find out that it is not contagious, find him out, and then return him to dozens of days, but also find out close contacts, sub-close contacts and then lock up for dozens of days.
(Some experts) don't understand antigen detection, and they also write articles everywhere, scolding this antigen test for not being sensitive, inaccurate, and what is too many false negatives. He has no understanding of China's grassroots areas, and to do nucleic acid testing, at least above the county level, he has to be able to do it.
The national nucleic acid method is taken as a last resort, and can only rely on this to find out the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible. However, for Omi Kerong, first of all, because the nucleic acid testing of all staff in the mainland is generally mixed, that is to say, ten or twenty samples are mixed, and the sensitivity will be reduced. The second problem is that, especially in groups that have been vaccinated or have been infected in the past, Omi kerong really comes and goes quickly, which is basically seen by the whole world. In fact, the nucleic acid of an infected person goes from negative to positive and then to negative for a short time. He accidentally missed the yang in the middle, thinking that it was okay, but in fact he had already experienced yin, yang, and yin. If the person who was once positive is passed on to someone else, he will not be found until someone else is found.
Residents use testing reagents at home for nucleic acid testing people's vision
Someone may not report it (he has tested himself) because he is afraid that after reporting, you will find him to isolate, and he does not want to report.
But you can let his mobile phone take a picture (self-test video), or the phone is turned on, let the doctor watch you do it, it is better than going to a place to do nucleic acid, it is still much easier. Ask the medical staff to do this nasopharyngeal swab for you, do a nasopharyngeal swab with yourself, and take another photo, (the latter) that is still much simpler.
First of all, this public policy should be based on believing in the people, first of all, you believe in the masses, and the second is that you have a certain mechanism, you include us now, you yourself report, we will do spot checks, we have a 2% proportion to do spot checks.
I think this year's CORONAVIRUS will end
In January, I said we were in the end of COVID-19. Omikeron replaced Delta as the world's leading virus, and it was part of the beginning of the end. Not only me, but at least many scientists around the world think so. WHO also tends to see it this way, otherwise how could Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus propose to end it this year, in 2022?
Now I still think this year's COVID-19 will end. Hong Kong is indeed an episode, and its biggest problem is that these people do not get vaccinated, otherwise Hong Kong would not have such a serious problem. Like Singapore, the number of deaths in Singapore for so long is not as high as ours.
The current virus is very weak, in 99.9% of people (among them) it is weaker than the flu, than the cold, but it will kill people, and now in Hong Kong, it is because these people do not get vaccinated, it is as simple as that.
The new crown virus itself, with a large number of people through natural infection and vaccination to build a relatively strong immune barrier, the virus itself can not spread, or the spread of toxicity, pathogenicity is also greatly reduced. After it is reduced, it is not like the original virus, the virus in Hong Kong is very far from the original virus, don't make a mistake. It's not like the one in Wuhan now.
Of the known variants, Omikeron is the most mutant on the key S protein. At least for now, it is functionally different from Delta, but in fact it is less dangerous than Delta. In addition to the greater impact on children, Omikeron did not exhibit other, more worrying characteristics than the previous strains. On the contrary, most of its characteristics are favorable: asymptomatic and mild, come and go quickly, low viral load, weak pathogenicity, weak virulence, short course of disease, etc. Omikeron is more transmissible than Delta, but not so terrible, in fact, its transmission path is not far from Delta.
Dr. Zhang Wenhong previously said that Omi kerong is not a "big flu" and that it will "bite people". I agree with him. That's true, but pay attention to the context in which he says it.
Dr. Zhang Wenhong gave a lecture on People's Vision
It is true that Omikeron is more than just a "big flu", they have some differences in nature, such as its performance is different from the flu, and it affects more people. But Omikron was not as serious as people thought. If we look at western data, in Denmark, the Delta mortality rate is 0.07%, and the Omilon is smaller than 0.07%, which is close to the mortality rate of the flu, or even lower than the flu, which is also true.
Of course, Omi kerong will "bite" - if the immunity is not strong enough, and there are no good medical resources. Omikron has a greater impact on children than previous strains. Children and the elderly are at high risk, immunity is not strong, and vaccination rates are not so high.
Vaccines are of course important.
However, the effectiveness of the vaccine is time-limited, and it may be ineffective after six months, and the injection will fundamentally change this situation. The duration is uncertain, and time will have to be tested.
Many people in China are vaccinated with two injections of chinese medicine plus one injection of Kexing or three injections of Kexing, so that vaccination is also good for the course of the disease, which can reduce the amount of virus and shorten the window period for virus transmission.
If three injections of immunization are given sequentially, at least for a period of time, they can be freed from the Infection of Omicron. Re-infection is also mild and asymptomatic, or has a shorter duration.
From the principle of immunology, it is possible that the vaccine has reached a point, such as after the third and fourth injections, everyone does not have to be shot again. Because every time an antibody encounters an antigen again, the gene will mutate to make it bind more closely to the antigen, and the strength and width of the antigen-antibody binding will be strengthened. After several strengthenings, the affinity of the antibody matures, and its binding capacity and antiviral ability are higher. When the third and fourth stitches are fired, it may be a station that can be retained for a long time, and everyone no longer needs to play after that. But how long and how it is, it also has to wait for time to test.
Vaccinated Hong Kong children people's vision
In the past, in the absence of a vaccine, it was herd immunity to end the epidemic, which is also the natural law of the development of the epidemic itself. But now that there are vaccines, we want vaccines to play a bigger role so that we don't risk infection.
Overall, I think it's manageable, albeit challenging.
There are several aspects to note, the first of which is that Omikeron affects children. Internationally, Compared with past strains, Omikeron has a greater impact on children, that is, the rate of severe illness is high. There are already outbreaks in schools, and it's important to note that if our children are not vaccinated, they risk becoming spreaders and passing them on to their parents or grandparents. This creates a new problem, as the proportion of elderly people who are also vaccinated is also small. Therefore, these two groups should focus on strengthening immunization.
The elderly should be vaccinated, vulnerable groups should be vaccinated, and the frail and sickly people should be vaccinated and injected until there are relatively strong antibodies.
Another point is to be vigilant, but not too panicked. The first should be paid attention to, everyone can not feel that Omi Kerong is nothing, like Hong Kong's epidemic fatigue, it is easy to lead to a rebound in the epidemic. Second, don't panic too much, think that Omick can't help it, and may be seriously ill. In fact, Ami kerong is relatively light on the whole.
Intern Fan Wang also contributed to this article. The head chart comes from the people's vision.
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