Jiwei network news, the war for several consecutive days not only hit Russia and Ukraine hard, but also brought impact to many industries around the world, and after the war between the two countries, the United States, Britain and Europe jointly launched a number of sanctions against Russia. Many of them participated in the announcement of the suspension of product sales in Russia.
According to the CCTV news client, on March 1, local time, Apple issued a statement saying that it would suspend the sale of Apple products in Russia and restrict Apple Pay functions. In addition, the Russia Today and Satellite News Agencies apps have also been removed from apple app stores outside of Russia.
There is no doubt that the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also affected the smartphone market. This is also another "black swan" event in the market after the new crown epidemic.
What is the impact of the war on the market?
Recently, a first-line brand supplier told Jiwei Network when talking about the order demand of end customers in the first half of the year: "From the current situation, the entire mobile phone market in the first half of this year is very weak; especially after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we have seen that all customers' forecasts have been adjusted." ”
In early February this year, the consulting agency TrendForce announced about the global mobile phone market in 2022 before the war between Russia and Ukraine, estimating that the output of smartphones in 2022 will be about 1.39 billion units, and the shipments of the top manufacturers are: 276 million units of Samsung, 243 million units of Apple, 208 million units of OPPO, and 149 million units of Vivo.
However, only half a month later, the situation has changed dramatically.
As we all know, today's smartphone market share has been highly centralized, and the fluctuation of overall shipments basically comes from the changes in product sales of head enterprises. Therefore, any company participating in the sanctions against Russia will have an impact on market shipments. An analyst from a consulting agency told Jiwei Network: "Some time ago, major institutions were actively doing predictive analysis, although the contradictions between the two countries still exist, but after all, there is no official war, and now it is this time and another time." ”
The analyst pointed out: "The sales forecast of the mobile phone market this year will be lowered, but the situation in Europe is complex and changeable, so now everyone has not yet bottomed out, and I don't know how much is appropriate." It is certain that the demand will not be good, but it is difficult to say how bad it will be, mainly depending on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the degree to which the sanctions imposed on Russia by several countries will develop. ”
In this regard, Strategy Analytics analyst Woody Oh said that Russia's other leading smartphone OEMs are likely to join Apple's actions in Russia in the next few days, and if the current situation continues for weeks or months, the Russian smartphone market is likely to be seriously affected, because Russia is one of the top five countries in smartphone shipments in recent years and the top ten countries in smartphone revenue.
Although the Russian domestic market may have a greater impact, but from the information learned from the micro-network, the current industrial chain and analysis agencies have the same view on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, believing that if the conflict can be ended in the short term, then the impact on the mobile phone market is very limited.
In response to the statement issued by Apple above, the above-mentioned analyst added: "Due to the setback of Huawei's consumer business, Apple's share of the Russian mobile phone market should be able to rank in the top three, but it is only 3 or 4 million units, so it can be judged that the overall demand will not be too large." Even the demand for mobile phones in the Markets of Russia and Ukraine is estimated to be between 40 and 45 million units a year. In 2022, even if the shipment volume of the global mobile phone market declines as a result, the overall impact range is expected to be around 3%. ”
The worst is possible
It is worth noting that some industry insiders said: "Based on the good relationship between China and Russia, it is reasonable to guess that it is impossible for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers to stop selling products to Russia, so if overseas brands are vacant due to the suspension of sales to Russia, the share will also be passed on to Chinese brands." From the Report on the shipment of the Russian mobile phone market released by Counterpoint Research, it can be seen that the country's mobile phone market share is basically occupied by mainstream brands such as Samsung, Xiaomi, Apple, and Huawei.
Obviously, several domestic first-line brands have established a brand effect in Russia; especially after Huawei's market share has fallen sharply due to supply problems, the share of a number of manufacturers represented by Glory and realme has increased significantly.
"We think that among the top brand factories, the most likely to follow up Apple's suspension of sales to Russia is Samsung, and Samsung is currently the most popular high-end brand in Russia, and its share is also considerable; if the brand also chooses to temporarily ship to Russia, it is obviously good for the domestic brand that is eyeing the tiger." In addition to being good for the end market, such a situation is bound to create demand for the supply chain. The other party added.
It should be pointed out that if the conflict situation continues to ferment and deteriorate, the ensuing exchange rate and inflation problems will have a greater impact on the global economy and the entire mobile phone industry chain.
The industry insider also pointed out: "If from a good point of view, this war should not be able to drag on for too long; then if the two countries want to restore their economies, they must start from the things in the line; they should produce natural gas, they should produce grain, and those who should produce oil should produce oil... Because only when the goods can go out, the money can come in. But in the worst case scenario, the energy crisis triggered by the conflict between the two sides will undoubtedly have a wide-ranging impact on the global economy. ”
Not only that, but Strategy Analytics, an international research institute, also mentioned in the report that in the worst case, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will trigger a global energy crisis and a global recession. Global smartphone manufacturing and supply chains will also be disrupted on a massive scale. By 2022, the global smartphone market will shrink significantly, affecting suppliers in all regions of the world.
(Proofreading/lee)
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