In the spring of 2022, the smartphone market seems to be experiencing a "cold wave".
Market analyst Agency Canalys released data showing that in the first quarter of this year, global smartphone shipments were 311.2 million units, down 11% year-on-year, ushering in a continuous decline. Among them, the Shipment volume in the Chinese market was 75.6 million units, down 18% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month.
This is not the first time smartphone shipments have declined, according to a report provided by the survey agency Counterpoint over the years, global mobile phone shipments have fallen for five consecutive years since 2017. CINNO Research, a third-party research institute, believes that in the context of the global epidemic, the decline of the smartphone market will continue.
In fact, the overall downturn in the mobile phone market is not only caused by the external environment, what really causes mobile phone manufacturers a headache is the obvious slowdown in demand for smart phones in recent years. The latest data from industry analysis company Counterpoint shows that the average replacement cycle of mobile phone users has exceeded 31 months.
According to a consumer trend report previously released by China Mobile Terminal Lab, 78.6% of users changed their mobile phones because of the damage of the old model, slower running speed/stuttering, insufficient memory and other reasons, because only 15.5% of users like to try early and replace mobile phones regularly.
Why do consumers less and less like to change mobile phones?
"The cost of replacement is increasing", "the innovation of new mobile phones is insufficient", and "the concept of consumption tends to be rational" are the problems that consumers reflect the most. Due to the intensification of product homogenization, the difference between the upgrade iteration of smart phones and the previous generation of products is shrinking, and for consumers, the cost performance of switching machines is becoming lower and lower. At the same time, the popularity of rational consumption concepts has also gradually weakened the "identity blessing effect" of new mobile phones in the past, and under multiple factors, the replacement machine is no longer the "just need" of consumers.
In the face of the lack of growth in the smart phone market, how to stimulate users' desire to change machines has become the key to the struggle of major mobile phone manufacturers. In recent years, mobile phone giants have set their sights on product technology research and development to seek a way to break the game, among them, folding screen mobile phones with more application scenarios have become an important "chip" for mobile phone manufacturers to compete for the market.
Mobile phone giant bets on "folding"
Compared with ordinary smart phones, folding screen mobile phones have more portable advantages because of their flexible screen bendable folding characteristics, and have been expected by the outside world since the concept was launched, but also because of their research and development difficulties, it has become a "touchstone" for testing the technical strength of mobile phone manufacturers.
In 2019, with the release of the Galaxy Z Fold and Mate X by the two giants of Samsung and Huawei, smartphones officially ushered in the "folding screen era". Subsequently, Xiaomi, OPPO, Glory, Vivo and other head mobile phone manufacturers have entered the game, have launched a variety of folding screen mobile phone products, 2022 only four months ago, there are Huawei Mate Xs 2, vivo X Fold, Honor Magic V three new machines listed. Relevant data show that as of April 2022, there are currently 7 mobile phone manufacturers and 20 folding screen mobile phones entering the market.
From the current products, folding screen mobile phones can be basically divided into two forms: horizontal folding and vertical folding, of which horizontal folding is divided into two categories: external folding and internal folding. Because there is only one screen, the outer folding structure can be made thinner and lighter, but because the screen is on the outside, the reliability requirements are higher, so it needs better material guarantees; the inner fold is the product form chosen by more manufacturers, because of the need for two screens, the weight, thickness, software experience consistency and other challenges are greater; vertical folding mobile phones can better save space, but there is still a problem that the aesthetics are greater than the practicality.
Although different folding forms still face their own technical challenges, for consumers who are tired of the crazy stacking of smart phones and the innovation of forms, folding screen mobile phones are undoubtedly a bright color in the highly homogeneous market.
"For me, the most attractive thing about folding screen phones is the split screen function of the large screen." Xiao Wang, a post-90s entrepreneur, said that because of the nature of his work, he needs to often move his office on the plane or high-speed rail, and the horizontal folding screen mobile phone can use a screen to achieve multiple applications at the same time, whether it is to read reports and change the program is very convenient. During the epidemic period, you can also use the split screen to display the health code and the nucleic acid code at the same time, eliminating the time of scanning the code multiple times.
In the view of post-00 students, an important reason for planting grass folding screen mobile phones is its practicality in learning and life. "I think the most useful thing is that the unfolding can be used as a tablet, the 8-inch large screen is very convenient for reading books and papers, and it is possible to go to the library with only a mobile phone to learn." In the canteen and dormitory, you can also brush the drama to play games, in addition to the price is slightly expensive and afraid of falling, it is indeed quite fragrant. ”
At the moment when redundant electronic devices have nowhere to be placed, a multi-screen folding screen mobile phone not only meets the actual needs of users for convenient use of multiple scenarios, but also becomes a "social new currency" in the eyes of consumers because of its research and development technology content and high-end product positioning.
"Many consumers will choose the new folding screen mobile phone as a gift to customers, relatives and friends. Because it represents the latest research and development level in the current field of smart phones, the product positioning is also relatively high-end, and the gift is very innovative. A person in charge of smartphone sales revealed.
Is a folding screen phone worth getting started with?
Although it has been favored by many consumers, in fact, in the eyes of most people, folding screen mobile phones are still a new thing, and there are still many concerns and questions when actually purchasing.
According to iMedia Research survey data, 67.5% of the surveyed users do not buy folding screen mobile phones because they are "worried about their quality problems", 59.5% of the surveyed users do not buy because of "expensive price"; for the expectations of folding screen mobile phones, 65.1% of the surveyed users said that they expect the hardware or software of folding screen mobile phones to be improved.
"The biggest problem with folding screen mobile phones is creases, and the creases of early folding screen products will become very obvious after a period of use, affecting the overall visual experience." Technology enthusiast Xiao Bai said that although he has always been concerned about folding screen mobile phones, he has not started because of concerns about creases. In addition, because the folding screen mobile phone needs to be folded and unfolded frequently, if the screen is scratched and broken during use, the cost of repair and screen replacement is higher than that of the bar.
In addition to concerns about the quality of mobile phones, the experience of folding screen mobile phones is also the focus of many consumers' concerns. One of the outstanding problems is the thickness of the fuselage. Judging from the products currently on the market, most folding screen mobile phones weigh more than 300 grams, so that many users who pursue lightness choose to wait and see.
At the same time, the adaptation of mobile phone Apps to folding screen mobile phones is also a problem. Many folding screen mobile phone users feedback, due to the lack of special optimization of the folding screen mobile phone application, many App interfaces are just simple and rough stretch display, resulting in poor content adaptability, the display effect is not good.
These concerns of consumers are not unreasonable, from the perspective of manufacturing process, the integrated design of the folding screen is a great consideration for the system switching logic and hardware manufacturing process. From hardware upgrades, software collocations to application ecological layout, behind the product upgrades are concentrated breakthroughs in various technical bottlenecks such as screens, hinges, structures, software systems, etc., and are also an important test of the technology research and development and innovation capabilities of mobile phone manufacturers and the industry chain.
But at the same time, with the continuous improvement of the research and development and manufacturing process of folding screen mobile phones, more and more subversive products that break consumer cognition are emerging. For example, the fifth folding flagship Mate Xs 2 recently listed by Huawei has achieved a great improvement in the pain points such as thickness, creases, and fear of falling on folding screen mobile phones.
In terms of weight and thickness, the weight of the Mate Xs 2 machine has dropped to 255 grams, and the thinnest place after unfolding is only about 4.5 mm, which is basically close to the level of ordinary bar phones, and from the data point of view, it is currently the lightest folding large-screen mobile phone in the industry. In terms of creases, Huawei data shows that the flatness of the Mate Xs 2 is 70% higher than that of the previous generation of Mate Xs screens, and from the general feedback of product measurement, it basically achieves the effect of unfolding without creases.
In addition, due to the use of composite reinforced structural screen, the folding screen in the protective layer, buffer layer, barrier layer three-layer structure blessing, the anti-drop ability compared with the previous generation of products increased by 2.5 times, in the strength, fall resistance, wear resistance have achieved significant improvement.
It is worth mentioning that for the mobile phone users complained about the problem of folding screen software application adaptation, Huawei introduced that the newly released Mate Xs 2 is equipped with Huawei's adaptive UI engine for the first time, in the case of developers without adaptation, they can obtain the original layout information through self-learning, and re-optimize the layout of the application interface for graphic and text information, and automatically adapt to the large screen after deployment.
At the product launch, Huawei Managing Director Yu Chengdong revealed that as of now, Huawei Mate Xs 2 has achieved 100% large-screen adaptation in Top 300 applications, and in Top 2000 applications, 90% large-screen adaptation has been realized, covering reading, video, online shopping, games, social, office, travel, financial management and other scenarios, basically solving the industry problem of folding screen mobile phone software mismatch.
Due to breakthroughs in fuselage weight, creases, and drop resistance, Huawei Mate Xs 2 has been sought after by the market since its release. It is understood that on the day of the sale on May 6, this folding screen mobile phone was sold out instantly on the online platform. A person in charge of a Huawei experience store revealed that although the offline has been affected by factors such as the epidemic, since the product release, more than a thousand people have visited the store to inquire about the experience, and unlike in the past, many customers are not "looking fresh", but seriously consider using the folding screen mobile phone as the main machine.
Above the gold line, go one step further
The popularity of Huawei's Mate Xs 2 is a natural embodiment of the overall improvement of the folding screen mobile phone market in recent years. According to the statistics of Omdia, by the end of 2021, the cumulative shipment of folding screen smartphones in the world will reach 11.5 million units, and Samsung and Huawei will rank first and second in the global market share. In 2021, the shipment volume was 9 million units, achieving a year-on-year increase of 309%. In the Chinese market, the shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones in 2021 is about 1.5 million units, once again refreshing the historical data, of which Huawei won nearly half of the country with a share of 49.3%.
At the moment when the smartphone market continues to be sluggish, folding screen mobile phones not only grow against the trend, but also have considerable prospects. Omdia predicts that this year the global folding screen smartphone market is expected to grow significantly from last year to 14 million units. Sales are expected to grow steadily every year, reaching 61 million units by 2026, accounting for 3.6% of the total smartphone market. According to industry analysts, in the next 2-3 years, folding screen mobile phones will become an incremental market segment of the smartphone market segment, and achieve 10 times the growth of the order of magnitude.
From the performance of the market, the mobile phone giants' bets on the folding track seem to have achieved initial results, but on the other hand, the enthusiasm of consumers has also put forward higher requirements for the product technology research and development of folding screen mobile phones, in order to firmly occupy the market highland, mobile phone manufacturers are competing to do their best to compete for the industry's leading technology.
Huawei is one of the examples. As one of the earliest manufacturers, Huawei has been the main force in the technology research and development of folding screen mobile phone products in recent years.
Taking the newly launched Mate Xs 2 as an example, the improvement in weight, thickness, crease, drop resistance and other aspects is due to the breakthrough of a number of key research and development technologies. For example, in the degree of lightness and thinness, a very important reason is that the entire hinge system applies a variety of high-precision special materials and special production processes, such as aerospace-grade titanium alloys, ultra-light glass fibers, ultra-light and ultra-strong steel, etc., in order to ensure higher strength at the same time, to create a lighter fuselage.
The flat, crease-free effect is the result of the original new generation of twin-rotor hinge design. It is understood that this hinge technology can integrate many precision devices in a small space, and through constant length control, make the movement in the folding process more precise, reduce the lateral stretch of the screen, make the reel and the screen fit more closely, so as to ensure that the hinge and the screen's motion trajectory is consistent, so that the screen is more smooth and smooth.
In addition, Mate Xs 2 also solves the reliability problems of folding screen mobile phones such as non-drop resistance and wear resistance by adopting a composite reinforced structural screen to absorb and block stress in the laminated structure of the protective layer, buffer layer and barrier layer.
This is not Huawei's first "technology breakthrough", in fact, in recent years, Huawei has achieved many folding screen mobile phone technology and product iterations.
In 2019, Huawei released the first generation of folding screen Mate X, opening a new era of 5G folding screen mobile phones. The launch of the second generation of folding screen Mate Xs has completed the evolution of folding screen mobile phones from hardware to ecology. In 2021, Mate X2 achieved a seamless folding design with seamless inner folding and micro-marks in the industry for the first time, and the subsequent introduction of the upper and lower folding Huawei P50 Pocket and the recently released external folding product Mate Xs 2 made Huawei the only mobile phone manufacturer in the industry to hold three folding forms. Behind the product iteration, the research and development and use of innovative materials such as zirconium-based liquid metal, magnetron nano optical film, super steel, carbon fiber composite materials, etc., has promoted the overall technological innovation of the folding screen mobile phone industry.
According to public information, in 2021, Huawei's R&D investment hit a record high, with a total investment of 142.7 billion yuan, accounting for 22.4% of the annual revenue, and in the past decade, Huawei's cumulative investment in R&D has exceeded 845 billion yuan. At the same time, Huawei is also accelerating the layout of global technical capabilities, close to academic sources, cooperating with global universities to establish joint laboratories, and promoting its own innovation breakthroughs in technology routes, supply chains, and underlying theories in multiple fields.
At the 2021 annual report press conference held in March this year, Guo Ping, huawei's rotating chairman, said that in the future, Huawei will continue to maintain a strong investment in research and development, optimize system architecture, improve software performance, and explore theory. At the same time, by solving the technical and technological problems, we will build a high-speed, credible and reliable supply chain. "In the future, our survival and development will rely on strong investment in research and development, and Huawei is strengthening breakthroughs and research in basic technology and cutting-edge science."
Harvard Business School University Professor Michael Porter pointed out in "Competitive Advantage" that the competitive advantage of enterprises comes from the ability to create more than cost value for customers, and the competition between enterprises and enterprises is not only the competition of a certain link, but the competition of the entire value chain.
With the global smartphone market shifting from incremental competition to stock competition, the folding screen mobile phone as the industry's "golden line" is accelerating its take-off, and is expected to become the driving force to stimulate market vitality and pry a new round of replacement cycle. On this fiercely competitive track, although the vast majority of head manufacturers have entered the game, which companies can stand out in the cruel competition still needs to be tested by time. In this "game of the brave", the strength of scientific and technological innovation is the key to victory.
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