The "law" of "buying early and enjoying early, and buying late with discounts" no longer applies to new energy vehicles.
On March 7, the price of important raw materials for new energy vehicles hit a record high. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 502,500 yuan / ton; LME nickel rose more than 70% in a single day, once exceeding 55,000 US dollars / ton; LME aluminum broke 4020 US dollars / ton, a new record high.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as subsidy decline, chip shortage and rising raw material prices, new energy vehicles have ushered in a "rising price tide", and even some models can no longer be bought.
According to incomplete statistics from the Red Star Capital Bureau, since the end of last year, at least 16 new energy vehicle companies have announced price adjustments, covering the mainstream car purchase range of less than 100,000 yuan to more than 300,000 yuan. Among them, models below 100,000 yuan have a higher increase, and the average price increase is about 4800 yuan.
Industry insiders pointed out that at present, the cost of raw materials will continue to rise, cost pressure has been transmitted to the terminal, and it is expected that more car companies will announce price increases in the future. However, the development of new energy vehicles in the mainland has entered a benign stage of development, and the industry generally believes that the price increase in the short term will not have an excessive impact on the overall market trend, and the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain rapid growth.
New energy vehicles have taken turns to raise prices
Models under 100,000 yuan rose by an average of 4,800 yuan
"Buying a Tesla (TSLA.US) must be hesitant, and if you hesitate, you will reduce the price", this is the advice of car friends to Ms. Wang. However, she waited for half a year to find that Tesla's price had increased.
At the end of 2021, Tesla announced a price increase, the Model 3 rear wheel drive version increased by 10,000 yuan, and the Model Y rear wheel drive version increased by 21,000 yuan.
This is like a starting gun for the price increase of new energy vehicles. Subsequently, Weilai (NIO.US), Xiaopeng (09868.HK/XPEV.US), Nezha, GAC Aean, SAIC Extraordinary, BYD (002594. SZ), Great Wall Euler, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Volkswagen, Zero Run, Extreme Krypton, Geometry, Ford, WM, SAIC Roewe and other brands have announced price increases.
The explanation given by various car companies is nothing more than the rising cost of raw materials, the shortage of chips, and the decline of subsidies. For low-priced cars that are already low-profit and take the price-for-volume route, the pressure on this round of rising costs is even greater.
According to Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, the price increase of chips, batteries and other components will bring manufacturing costs of more than 100 yuan per kilowatt-hour (power battery capacity) to micro-electric vehicles. Previously, some institutions reported that the profit of the national god car Wuling Hongguang MINIEV was only 89 yuan.
Low-priced cars have appeared to be "selling more at a loss". Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, pointed out: "Taking black cat as an example, after the sharp rise in raw materials in 2022, the loss of black cat alone exceeded 10,000 yuan. "The production cost of the three-electric system of Euler black and white cats accounts for about 55%-60% of the cost of the vehicle, and these two explosive mini cars have stopped receiving orders."
Raise prices without surrendering. The price of Euler good cat rose by 12,000 yuan. Although Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has not yet increased its price, its "brother" Nano EV has increased its price by 3,000 yuan. Zero-run car's mini-car T03 delivered a total of 400,000 units last year, which can be said to be the pillar model of zero-running, and also announced a price increase of 9100 yuan.
The significant decline in the trading price of new energy credits is another important reason why low-priced cars "can't afford to sell".
On April 1, 2018, the mainland began to implement the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits (hereinafter referred to as "Double Credits"). CAFC (Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption Credit) positive points are carried forward or transferred to affiliated enterprises by themselves, and NEV (New Energy Vehicle Points) positive points can be freely traded to compensate for NEV negative points and CAFC negative points.
New energy vehicle credits have become an important source of income for car companies. In 2021, the transaction price of new energy integrals will reach more than 2,000 yuan, and bicycles can make profits of about 6,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan for related production enterprises. Micro-electric vehicles with a bicycle profit of only 100 yuan are popular among car companies.
However, with the substantial growth of the new energy vehicle market, the carbon credit trading price has been reduced to 500-800 yuan in early 2022. According to the market size of 5 million new energy vehicles in 2022, Euler internally predicts that the price of carbon credits may drop to 200 yuan in the future.
Raw material prices remain high
Lithium carbonate broke through 500,000 yuan / ton
The cost of the battery system accounts for nearly 40% of the cost of the new energy vehicle, and the price of the power battery rises, and the price of the vehicle naturally rises.
In 2021, the global new energy vehicle market exploded, with electric vehicle sales increasing by 112% year-on-year to more than 6.3 million units. However, the supply of power batteries has not kept up with the rapidly growing demand. According to SNE Research's forecast, by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406GWh, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335GWh, a gap of about 18%.
The gap between supply and demand highlights the supply problem of upstream raw materials, followed by a sharp rise in raw material prices.
In the past year, upstream of power batteries, the price of metal raw materials has risen dramatically. Among them, the main raw material of new energy vehicle power batteries, battery-grade lithium carbonate, its price has increased by 10 times in more than a year.
According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation, on March 7, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 502,500 yuan / ton. The average spot price of lithium hydroxide is 459,500 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was only 300,000 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of last year, it was only 50,000 yuan / ton.
Guotai Junan Research Report said that the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate is mainly due to the urgent demand for lithium carbonate by lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, especially overseas energy storage batteries. In a short period of time, the supply of lithium resources cannot be rapidly improved, and the contradiction between supply and demand may exist for a long time.
Industrial Securities research shows that from the perspective of the main material link, the price increase of electrolyte and cathode link is the most significant. From the beginning of 2021 to February 27, 2022, lithium iron phosphate rose by 332%, and the price of electrolyte rose by 189% driven by lithium hexafluorophosphate; ternary cathode materials generally rose by more than 100% during the year, driven by metal prices.
Rising material costs have also put pressure on power battery suppliers. Previously, the Network exposed that the price of BYD batteries was not less than 20%, and BYD did not comment on this. And including Fu Neng Technology (688567. SH), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074. Power battery suppliers, including SZ) and others, have made it clear that due to the continuous price increase of upstream materials, they are already negotiating price increases with car companies.
Recently, there are also market rumors that the Ningde era (300750. SZ) and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers downgraded their March production schedules. CATL denied the rumors of production cuts, but industry insiders admitted to the Red Star Capital Bureau that the current price is indeed under great pressure. There is market news that battery and material manufacturers represented by leading enterprises have been seeking collective boycott, and lithium carbonate of more than 500,000 yuan / ton is not bought.
In addition to lithium carbonate, neon, palladium, nickel, aluminum, etc., important raw materials in the automotive industry chain, have been affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and there have been great fluctuations. On March 7, LME nickel rose by 73.93%, rising as high as 55,000 US dollars / ton, a record high; LME aluminum rose above 4020 US dollars / ton, refreshing a record high.
The analysis believes that geopolitical conflicts have led to the obstruction of resource flows, triggering market concerns, and global supply may show shortfall expectations. If Russian-Ukrainian relations continue to deteriorate, the global supply of these resources will be affected, which in turn will increase the cost pressure of terminals such as electric vehicle industries.
Short-term price increases have little impact
New energy vehicles maintain a high-speed growth momentum
Despite the impact of rising prices, domestic new energy vehicle sales continued the rapid growth momentum in 2021 in early 2022. According to the China Automobile Association, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 452,000 units and 431,000 units in January, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively.
On March 5, Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with the media at the two sessions of the National People's Congress that the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China in January and February this year were very good, more than doubled, and it is expected to achieve the expected target this year, which may significantly exceed the expected target.
People in the industry generally believe that at present, the mainland's new energy vehicles are passing the inflection point of marketization, from policy-driven to demand-driven. Even if some car companies raise prices, the impact on sales is expected to be very limited. Some car company insiders told Red Star Capital Bureau that price increases do have an impact on sales, and the specific needs to be observed for a period of time. Depending on the order and delivery cycle, the impact of price increases may be truly reflected in March and April.
Soochow Securities analysis said that at present, the demand brought about by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded to by the market, and it is expected that it will not affect the sales of new energy vehicles.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in January, the new energy passenger car market diversified, and there were 11 enterprises with wholesale sales of manufacturers exceeding 10,000 vehicles, an increase of 6 over the same period. With the decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, the price fine-tuning of some models in the early stage brought about a temporary downturn in orders, the price acceptance of new energy vehicles recovered after the Spring Festival, and many new energy vehicles still have a backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales of new energy models in February will not be significantly affected by the decline.
It is worth mentioning that this year is the last year for the implementation of subsidy policies for new energy vehicles. However, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a signal of the extension of the preferential tax policy for the purchase tax of new energy vehicles. On February 28, Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference of the State Council New Office that policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, incentives for charging facilities, and preferential tax reductions and exemptions for vehicles and vessels will continue to be implemented. At the same time, new energy vehicles, green smart home appliances, and green building materials will be carried out to go to the countryside.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that it is necessary to study and clarify support policies such as the continuation of preferential tax treatment for new energy vehicles, optimize the "double integral" management method, do a good job of effective connection with subsidy decline, and stabilize market expectations.
In addition, in view of the disorderly rise in lithium prices in the current period, the relevant departments will begin to rectify. Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said on February 28 that this year will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of domestic lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging.
Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo
Edited by Yang Cheng
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