On March 3, local time, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released news that the Ukrainian army will change from a defensive model to a counter-offensive model. This is very interesting news.
Because the Russian army still has absolute firepower superiority, even if the Ukrainian army is well equipped, it is very difficult to launch a counterattack without air superiority and heavy artillery support. Even, dynamic defense is very difficult to fight. For the Ukrainian army, under the existing equipment conditions, the best way is still to hold and continue to harass the Russian rear, which can delay the time and increase the pressure on Russia, while the rear attack on the Russian logistics supply convoy can make the Russian front offensive difficult.
Destroyed Ukrainian T-64 tanks
Relatively speaking, rear raids remain the most useful tactic. Because the Ukrainian people generally do not support the Russian army, and the overall strength of the Russian army is relatively limited. Civilian facilities in Ukraine are also well preserved, and the whereabouts of Russian logistics convoys are easily exposed. Therefore, the harassment of the Russian logistics line is effective, which is also in line with the typical tactics developed by NATO for the Soviet army's large-depth combat method, and NATO's training of the Ukrainian army is likely to strengthen the use of this tactic.
An ambushed Russian convoy
But if you want to fight back, the situation is completely different. Once out of the preset position, a large number of heavy weapons and personnel of the Ukrainian army will be exposed to the Great Plains, which is the ideal target for the heavy artillery of the Russian Air and Space Force and the Russian Army. This also means that the Ukrainian army should be prepared for a large-scale assembly of troops in the case of inferior equipment, and this assembly is also very difficult, it is easy to lose the suddenness of the counterattack, and fully expose the shortcomings of the Ukrainian army in the face of the superior firepower of the Russian army. The Soviets also needed to rely on more artillery and assault troops to retake Ukraine.
For the Ukrainian counterattack, it is clear that the Russian army can exert its firepower superiority on the one hand, and on the other hand, it cannot continue to hold on to the Ukrainian army, speed up the Russian offensive speed, and effectively make the loss of Ukrainian civilian facilities smaller. Politically and militarily, it can be regarded as a double happiness, provided that the Russian army really has superior firepower.
If the Ukrainian army dares to counterattack, it will definitely pick the place where the Russian logistics problems occur, which can reduce the Russian army's ground firepower superiority. Is there a problem with the logistics of the Russian army? With the exception of a few areas, there does not seem to be a problem in some other places. Then according to this logic, the Russian army will actually know the direction of the Ukrainian counterattack very clearly. Logically, the Russians are unlikely to be caught off guard, and the counterattack will lose its suddenness.
Therefore, unless the Ukrainians are confident that they believe that the Russian army has been exhausted and lacks sufficient logistical supplies to counterattack and achieve its political and military objectives of repelling the Russian army, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army will really take the initiative to launch an offensive, which is too dangerous. It is impossible for someone with a little common sense to ignore this.
Therefore, the biggest news of the Ukrainian General Staff may be the smoke bomb. The second is to provide an interface for the westward withdrawal of the main Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine. Now the russian army in the east of the large pocket is gradually forming, the main force of the Ukrainian army is likely to be annihilated, so the main force of the Ukrainian army either sticks to the fortified area (high probability), or braves the heavy Russian fire to withdraw to the west. Calling this retreat a "counterattack" is not so impossible.
But there is also a very vicious possibility. Now what the United States needs is to appease Europe, not to let Europe take the opportunity to form a consensus on strategic independence, so the United States needs to let Russia continue to play the role of "living threat". On this premise, ending the war in a partially favorable way is a policy option for the United States. But based on Western political correctness, the United States is not so easy to operate, and the efficiency of intelligence transfer will be a very interesting technical link. Considering that Ukraine's intelligence is now highly dependent on NATO, it is entirely possible to create a message on this issue that the Russian military is not well supplied logistically" and encourage the risk-taking sentiment of the Ukrainian authorities, so as to quietly let Ukraine send heads to ensure a political outcome for the Russian army to win a crushing victory. And in this way to ensure that Russia can continue to exert influence.
Of course, whether Ukraine is really so lacking in judgment will also be a question. The only thing that is clear is that the Ukrainian military is unlikely to actually launch a scaled, structured counterattack. For the Ukrainian army, continuous harassment of Russian logistics lines is the most effective tactic. Overall, Ukrainian troops should be able to consider withdrawing if they don't want to be gradually eaten by the Russians.