preface
*This article commemorates the eighth anniversary of the establishment of the "Driving School" new media
Wind objects should be looked at for a long time.
Standing at the threshold of 2022, recall that eight years ago, BAIC Motor launched an E150 EV pure electric vehicle. The car is less than 4 meters long, the wheelbase is only 2.5 meters small electric vehicle, only equipped with a 25.6 kWh battery pack, the mileage is comparable to 150 kilometers, but this car is one of the first to knock on the door of China's new energy consumption.
At that time, the price of the BAIC E150 EV was as high as 220,800-230,800 yuan, but with the help of strong national and local supplements, the actual terminal price of this car in the Beijing area was 125,800-13.58 million yuan. Sounds incredible, who would have spent 120,000 yuan eight years ago to buy a pure electric car with a range of only 150 kilometers?
Eight years later, the same micro-electric vehicle with an endurance of more than 100 kilometers, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV can sell about 400,000 vehicles a year. Now, its price is now only 40,000 yuan, which is 83% lower than the earliest BAIC E150 EV eight years ago.
Although for a long time in the middle, many car enthusiasts have criticized China's subsidy policy for being exploited by cars like baicc motor E150 EV, and even let many regional car companies "cheat", or let the earliest batch of consumers suffer many "catastrophic experiences". For a while, many people ridiculed the "curve overtaking" of China's auto industry as "cornering overturning", and in the period from 2017 to 2019, new forces like Weilai almost suffered full screen ridicule.
But now it is proved that the development of China's new energy automobile industry is inseparable from those car companies and consumers who first ate crabs, without the immature and incomplete pure electric vehicle exploration of BAIC E150 EV, China's new energy automobile industry cannot suddenly grow into a complete and huge global leading industry overnight. It will not give birth to new energy vehicle leaders like Weilai and BYD that deserve the respect of global car companies, nor will it bring opportunities for traditional car companies such as Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motors, GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE Group, and SAIC Motor to "surpass the curve".
Now we no longer need to doubt the success of "China's curve overtaking", because at least half of the next new energy track is defined by Chinese companies - from upstream battery raw materials, to midstream battery companies, to downstream new energy vehicle manufacturing, as well as derivatives of intelligent cockpits, automatic driving, etc., almost all of which are led by Chinese car companies.
In 2022, the biggest attraction for China's auto market is the performance of the new energy vehicle market. On the one hand, because in 2022, the new forces will gradually release and deliver their own second-generation products at this node, which is expected to further push their market share. On the other hand, after the confusion of previous years, the new products accelerated by traditional car companies will also be unveiled at this node in 2022, especially the new electric vehicle product launch of joint venture car companies will increase significantly.
So what kind of state will China's new energy vehicle market be in 2022, what will happen to the entire new energy industry this year, how to predict in the automotive industry, what judgment is given by external investment institutions, and what can be paid attention to at the industry and enterprise level... And so on, in fact, need to do a panoramic observation, to provide readers with a broader field of vision.
First, in 2021, the global hand in hand strides forward, and the penetration rate of China and Europe has reached a critical point
In 2021, the global new energy market has entered a state of great stride forward, from the previous China to the current China continues to grow significantly, Europe rises rapidly, and North America actively follows.
In 2021, the global scale of new energy vehicles is about 6.5 million to 6.8 million, with a growth rate of 109%. Compared with the global production scale of about 80 million vehicles in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 8-9%, which is only one step away from the 10% snowball critical point.
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales scale is 3.52 million units, of which 3.334 million are passenger cars, accounting for about half of the global new energy vehicle market. Among them, pure electric vehicles are still the dominant products, with sales of 2.734 million units and plug-in hybrid models of 600,000 units. At the same time, the average penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles also reached about 15% in 2021, reaching 22.6% at its peak in December, a significant increase from 5.8% in 2020.
In Europe, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the main nine European countries is about 1.861 million units, and due to differences in statistical caliber, it is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe in 2021 will be between 2.1 million and 2.3 million units. There are nearly half and half of pure electric and plug-in hybrids, and some data show that the number of pure electric vehicle registrations is about 1.2 million, slightly more. So far, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the European market is about 19%.
The North American market has always been more repulsive to pure electric vehicles. In the past few years, in addition to Tesla single-handedly promoting the sales of electric vehicles, that is, some new car companies are joining the new energy track, such as GM, Ford, FCA and other giants still maintain distance.
However, in 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will be about 650,000 units, an increase of 101% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations, of which Tesla's sales are about 350,000 vehicles. With brands such as Ford, Hyundai Kia, Geely Group, stellantis group and other brands accelerating the launch of new cars, Tesla's share has dropped to about 53%. Of course, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the North American market is still very low, only 4%.
The sales of new energy vehicles in other parts of the world can only be regarded as an increase, with a total forecast of about 200,000-300,000 units, but it is also double that of 2020.
Second, in 2022, new energy vehicles will enter the 10 million mark globally
Due to the explosive growth of global new energy vehicles in 2021, coupled with the further increase in the purchase subsidies of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States, the industry has shown enough optimism about the global new energy vehicle sales prospects in 2022.
1. European new energy market estimates
At present, many institutions predict the sales scale of new energy vehicles this year to cross the 10 million mark. If the target is 10 million vehicles, then the more conservative sales growth rate is estimated to be above 50%. At the same time, assuming that the global passenger car production remains at 72 million to 80 million units (fluctuating range affected by the supply chain), it means that the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be as high as 12.5%-13.9%, crossing the 10% critical point in one fell swoop.
In the forecast of 10 million units, the mainstream agencies' expectations for the size of the European new energy vehicle market are between 2.5 million and 3 million, but the overall bias is around 2.7 million. This forecast is based on the expectation of mainly from the penetration rate, according to the penetration rate of new energy vehicles as high as 30% in December last year, the overall size of the European market of 12 million new energy vehicles with a penetration rate of 25% is 3 million.
Optimistic expectations come more from the supply side. At present, the Volkswagen Group has been very clear about the All in electric circuit, and the investment of Renault-Nissan and Hyundai-Kia in electric vehicles will see initial results in 2022, especially the products of Hyundai-Kia's E-GMP platform have been well received by the European market.
The more critical increment is Tesla, which has been limited by the supply of production capacity, Tesla Model Y only began to deliver in the third quarter of last year, and with the operation of Tesla's Berlin factory, it is estimated that Tesla's sales in the European market will double - this year's sales forecast is about 250,000 vehicles. In addition, on the luxury brand side, Mercedes-Benz and BMW will enter the high-frequency period of new car launch, and the electrification products of Geely Group from China on the Volvo and PoleStar brands have also begun to enlarge.
At the same time, under Europe's strict emission policy, internal combustion engine models always have higher cost expenditures, and car companies need to balance emissions through new energy vehicles. In order to ensure the rapid popularization of electric vehicles in the European market, the subsidy policies of major European countries for new energy vehicles in 2022 have basically not changed, which far exceeds the expectations of the market.
2. Estimate of the new energy market in the United States
In the U.S. market, compared with the sales of 650,000 electric vehicles in 2021, the industry predicts that it will double its growth in 2022 to 1.3 million units, or even more. There are two main factors: one is the substantial increase in subsidy amounts, and the other is the super large number of new electric cars, especially electric pickups.
Now the U.S. House of Representatives has voted to pass the Rebuild a Better Future Act, which plans $1.75 trillion in spending, of which $555 billion is spent on "clean energy and climate investments." While details haven't yet been finalized, one of the most fascinating is that electric cars made in the U.S. are expected to receive up to $12,500 in subsidies — some of which Tesla doesn't enjoy because Tesla doesn't have a union — for models that are suggested to retail for $55,000. The other is in Tesla's favor, the new bill will eliminate the subsidy threshold of a single car company's cumulative sales of no more than 200,000 vehicles, which means that Tesla can also enjoy subsidies close to $8,000 / vehicle.
In terms of product launch, GM and Ford's electric pickup trucks may become the main force of increment. According to Ford, the pure electric pickup truck F-150 Lighting has received orders for almost 200,000 units, and with the addition of the previous Mustang Mach-E, Ford plans to double its electric vehicle production capacity to 600,000 units. There are also some new car companies, such as Rivian, Lucid, etc., whose sales targets are not low.
Of course, for the US electric vehicle market, the increase still depends on Tesla. Tesla's Texas Gigafactory is now ready, where the Model Y with the 4680 battery pack and later cyberruck will be produced.
If we follow a more optimistic forecast, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and North America will reach about 4.3 million, while other markets around the world may have sales of about 500,000 new energy vehicles.
The next calculation is very simple, if according to the global 10 million new energy vehicle scale forecast in 2022, how large does China's new energy vehicle market need to be? The answer is more than 5.2 million vehicles – and if this is achieved, it will ensure that the world's new energy vehicles cross the 10 million mark. So is the Chinese market OK?
Wen | Liu Xuexiao
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