Author/Baked bun under the stars
Edit/Spinach Starry Sky
Typography/Fried liver under the stars
The best way to alleviate one anxiety is to create another.
In the past two years, with the withdrawal of electric vehicle subsidies, cost has become the first priority for automakers to purchase batteries. In this context, the installed proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has achieved a reversal of ternary batteries, and the prosperity of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue.
If the cost is the main line of the battery circle, then the technology is a veritable branch line.
Before the LG new energy research and development of the quaternary lithium battery (on the basis of ternary lithium, the use of aluminum part of the replacement of cobalt), further to achieve cost reduction, safety performance improvement, Tesla (Model 3 and Model Y) is also ready to pay for the quaternary lithium battery. Later, BYD (002594) launched a blade battery, achieving higher volume utilization and energy density without losing ternary batteries.
Blade battery (BYD)
It is easy to fight the country, but it is difficult to defend the country. This can make the Ningde era (300750), which once bet on the right ternary battery, some can't sit still. As a result, the rumors about King Ning and Tesla's quarrel also made the outside world talk about it. Ningwang accelerated the layout of the lithium battery track through two growth methods of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions and endogenous growth methods last year: upstream overseas lithium mines, and downstream release of the power exchange brand EVOGO.
In addition to the upstream and downstream power, Ning Wang's old line of work, battery technology, has not fallen at all. The sodium-ion battery was born in the anxiety created by Ning Wang's opponent. This battery is said to be fully charged at 80% of the charge in 15 minutes at room temperature. Under the premise that the commercial prospects of this power exchange are still unclear, this undoubtedly makes the future battery technology battle another choice.
Sodium ion battery (Ningde era)
With the release of this sodium-ion battery, can Ning Wang fight this counterattack war well?
First, is it possible to change lanes and overtake?
First of all, the author's point of view, lithium ion and sodium ion do not belong to the same track. The opponent of sodium ions is lead-acid batteries. Downstream application scenarios are two-wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage and so on.
Although the sodium-ion battery has only recently come out of the circle and attracted the attention of all parties, this technology was proposed as early as the 19th century. With the increasingly strong trend of global energy structure transformation in recent years, more environmentally friendly and green basic materials have been valued by players in academic circles and industrial circles.
The author checked, the number of articles on sodium-ion batteries in the academic circle has improved qualitatively since 2015, and then it has been out of control. At the end of 2020, there are more than 20 companies in the world that are committed to the research of sodium-ion batteries, and the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries is also proceeding in an orderly manner. Ningwang also announced last year that the sodium-ion battery developed by itself next year will have the basis for industrialization.
Go back to the source and find the difference. From the perspective of battery principle, although sodium-ion and lithium-ion batteries include four major battery pieces: positive, negative, diaphragm and electrolyte, the material of each component has a large difference. Taking the cathode material as an example, if lithium iron phosphate is simply replaced by sodium iron phosphate, its sodium storage performance is very poor, so other alternative elements may be needed to optimize, such as vanadium phosphate or manganese phosphate, or Prussian white materials.
Comparison of lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries (Ofweek)
But thankfully, the difference between the manufacturing equipment of sodium-ion batteries and the entire production line of lithium batteries is not very large, but the specific production parameters and conditions need to be adjusted to a certain extent. For the shovel sellers in the upstream of lithium batteries, the risk of being replaced or overtaken is undoubtedly much smaller.
You let it change, and the shovel is still the shovel.
If you compare sodium-ion, lithium-ion and lead-acid batteries under the sun, you will find that whether it is energy density or cycle life, sodium-ion batteries are superior to lead-acid batteries, so the first city that sodium-ion batteries need to conquer in the future is the territory of lead-acid batteries, such as low-speed electric vehicles, energy storage, etc. Not to mention that lead is still toxic.
Although the cost of sodium-ion batteries has a huge advantage over the crazy rise of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide (sodium-based sodium chloride prices are only a few thousand yuan per ton, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 450,000 yuan per ton), and the safety is also higher, but at the moment when the battery energy density becomes more concerned by players, the biggest hard injury of sodium-ion batteries - low energy density (at least 20% lower), makes it impossible to compete with lithium-ion batteries.
Comparison of three types of battery performance (Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Of course, there is also a solution is to mix and match sodium ions and lithium ions in a certain proportion (Ning Wang's AB battery solution), which is like biodiesel mixed with ordinary diesel, take its essence, remove its dross, and the two form a complementary pattern. But in this way, the author believes that the significance of the existence of sodium-ion batteries has been lost.
Therefore, it is basically impossible to bend a car with a super lithium-ion battery. Changing tracks and starting over is the right way.
Sodium ion battery applications
Second, who runs faster?
Although from a policy point of view, there is no specific support for sodium-ion batteries. But some players have always believed that "early birds have worms to eat". Let's analyze the pattern of competition a little bit.
From the enterprise side, Ning Wang belongs to the leading players, and it is said that there are also large-scale research teams inside. In addition, the academic circle is not to be outdone. For example, the Chinese Academy of Sciences itself hatched Zhongke Haina, the team specialized in sodium-ion batteries, and last June launched the world's first set of 1MWh sodium-ion battery photosuring intelligent microgrid system. Shanghai Jiaotong University is also working silently to incubate sodium innovative energy in Shaoxing, as a start-up company mainly doing energy storage batteries, just signed an annual output of 80,000 tons of sodium-ion battery cathode material project last year.
Sodium Ion Battery Player (Zhongke Haina)
Several known categories of players are on their own tracks. In the context of the increase of energy storage and the uncertainty of the stock of lead-acid batteries are relatively small, players now need to exert more power from the product side and speak with the performance of the product.
Third, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, who can eat the cake?
The Star Wealth team always wants to give investors a haiming light. Since it comes to sodium-ion batteries, the author believes that investment opportunities in addition to the sodium-ion batteries themselves have two directions:
1. Battery aluminum foil
Due to the nature of sodium ions, the collector of the battery can use lower cost aluminum foil, unlike the copper foil + aluminum foil of lithium-ion batteries. At present, our country has a complete aluminum foil industry chain, last year's annual aluminum foil production exceeded 4 million tons, but also a large number of exports (about 1.3 million tons). This is undoubtedly good for players of aluminum foil.
2. Soda ash
Just like fish can not be separated from water, sodium ion batteries can not be separated from sodium, looking upstream of the raw material is most likely sodium carbonate, that is, soda ash. The consumption of soda ash is mainly in the field of glass, and the penetration of sodium-ion batteries has allowed traditional soda ash to find an increase.
The anxiety of lithium batteries has not yet passed, and the anxiety of sodium-ion batteries is being concocted. However, the market ultimately depends on performance expectations, are you optimistic about sodium-ion batteries?
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.