In 2021, tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered a perfect answer to 936,000 deliveries while global automakers were hampered by chip shortages.
Deliveries in the fourth quarter were 313,000 units, up from 240,000 units in the third quarter and much higher than the 263,026 vehicles predicted by analysts, which is also the sixth consecutive quarter of Tesla's record deliveries! On an annual basis, Tesla's 2021 deliveries increased by 87 percent from the previous year to 936,172 units, nearly doubling deliveries.
Tesla has firmly taken the top spot in new energy vehicles, and the combined delivery volume of new car manufacturers Nio Motors (NYSE:NIO), Ideal Automobile (NASDAQ:LI) and Xiaopeng Motors (NYSE:XPEV) is less than one-third of Tesla's. In the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla has long been on the altar.
The stock price fell to the altar
Compared with the hard-to-find popularity of Tesla cars, Tesla's stock market is unusually cold.
Since reaching a record $1243.49 last November, Tesla's stock price has been in a state of shock decline, falling by more than 30% so far and more than 20% so far this year.
On one side is the day-to-day delivery volume, and on the other hand is the crumbling stock price. The stock market is a barometer of the economy, is Tesla going to fall off the altar of the gods?
Musk cashed out at a high level
Since the end of last year, Musk has repeatedly sold Tesla stock.
Musk sold a total of 15.7 million shares for $16.4 billion. Add to that the shares he gave away, and he sold a total of 20.7 million shares. Then, by exercising the options, he acquired another 22.8 million shares. He currently owns 172.6 million shares, which gives him a 17% stake in the company, making him the largest single-person shareholder.
Musk's high selling and low buying operation, the stock god looked at the estimation and sighed to himself. As the world's richest man, Musk does not need cash, he may just think that the stock price is too high and simply want to cash out. But Musk has too much aura on his body, and his every move may affect the entire market. The high level of cashing out by executives is often not a good thing for the company's stock price, and the decline in Tesla's stock price afterwards also proves Musk's "foresight".
Negative events are frequent but sales are undiminished
According to the Defective Product Management Center of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation. Since February 18, some domestically produced Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles produced between December 28, 2020 and January 15, 2022, with a total of 26,047 electric vehicles, will be recalled.
In fact, in the past year, Tesla has launched six recalls in the Chinese market alone, involving 543811 electric vehicles, covering imported Model 3, Model S and domestic Model 3, Model Y and other models. If tesla's global delivery volume of 936172 vehicles in 2021 is calculated, the proportion of recalled vehicles is 58%, which is equivalent to about every two vehicles sold, and one vehicle is recalled.
It is understood that the recall is due to defects in the software control function of the electronic expansion valve, which will cause the defrosting effect of the windshield to be substandard, thereby affecting the driving vision and there are safety hazards.
In addition, braking systems and autopilot assist are the most questioned issues at Tesla. Not only have there been many car owners' rights protection incidents in China, but also in the United States.
NHTSA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said it had received 354 Complaints about "Phantom Braking" from Tesla in the past nine months. In the three months before Feb. 2 alone, there were already 107 complaints related to "ghost brakes." On February 17, EST, NHTSA officially launched an investigation into Autopilot, Tesla's self-driving assisted driving system.
However, whether it is the recall or the autopilot assist, etc., can be solved by the OTA remote upgrade, the economic loss to Tesla is small. As for brand value and sales volume, it seems that the impact is not large at present. Mainly because other new energy vehicles are too weak, it is difficult to shake Tesla's industry position.
Tesla's negative events did not affect his sales. According to data from the Association, Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in China in January, exceeding 50,000 units for the sixth consecutive month. Even excluding the number of exports to Europe, the number of cars delivered to China has reached 19,346, and the overall performance is still higher than that of new car-making forces such as Wei Xiaoli.
New growth points
Tesla's cars are deeply loved by the majority of consumers, and in the future, Tesla will also launch a low-cost version of the model, or named Model Q, to further seize market share.
Tesla's cars have almost no inventory and are very popular, and Tesla's biggest obstacle is the capacity problem. With the deployment of global gigafactories, Tesla's production capacity will be further expanded.
In addition, Tesla will also enter the insurance and car application stores.
It is reported that Tesla's car insurance is a new type of car insurance product designed according to the use time, mileage, driver habits and other information of the vehicle, and gives personalized pricing for different owners. That is to say, although the owners are all the same car, the insurance coverage and price may be very different.
Musk has said he is very optimistic about the auto insurance business, and he expects Tesla's insurance valuation to reach 30% to 40% of Tesla's auto business in the future. Based on Tesla's current valuation of $849 billion, Tesla's insurance business can be valued at about $300 billion.
As for the app store, although Tesla did not officially announce it, the concept of software charging was actually first proposed by Tesla. Car owners can purchase high-end features such as driver assistance functions, fully autonomous driving, and acceleration performance improvement in the Tesla APP. For example, Tesla's navigation assistance function is priced at 32,000, and if it is continuously improved in the future, its revenue will also increase significantly.
The future of smart cars must be ecological competition, but how to land in the future use scenarios is still difficult to predict, but Tesla has a huge advantage in hardware (car), coupled with the advance layout of the software now, I believe that there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.
Is valuation cheap?
After a series of declines, Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has fallen to 153.84 times, and the total market value has fallen back to $849 billion.
According to InvestingPro's model, Tesla's fair value is $777.27, about 5.4% below the current share price, and it is also relatively healthy financially. It can be said that the current valuation has fallen to a reasonable range.
Tesla Fair Value, Source: InvestingPro
Technical
Tesla's daily chart shows that the stock price is under the pressure of resistance in the $947 area in the short term, and the price will once again challenge the Low of $792 on January 28 (at the circle), and if it holds this position, the stock price may once again challenge 947; conversely, if it is lost, it will open up new downside.
At present, Tesla has formed a large double-headed pattern, and the technical side is empty.
Tesla daily chart, source: Investing.com
End
Tesla is a very growth company, and I have always been very optimistic about his future development. However, at this stage, the Tightening Policy of the Upcoming Interest Rate Hike by the Federal Reserve is not good for growth stocks, especially when Tesla is in trouble and the technical situation is not good, Tesla's performance in the short term may be weak, but I am still optimistic about Tesla's medium- and long-term performance.
Author: Pan Yiheng