In the first quarter of 2022, the Model Y loaded with 4680 batteries is about to be delivered. It is expected that by the end of 2022, Tesla's 4680 battery production capacity will reach 100GWh per year, meeting the needs of 1.3 million electric vehicles. It is expected that after 2023, the number of battery manufacturers such as Cataline Times, Panasonic, Ewell Lithium Energy, LG and so on have capacity planning in 4680 battery technology. As a high-energy density battery, the 4680 cylindrical battery will not only promote the innovation of the lithium battery industry, but also change the demand for all aspects of the industrial chain.
Based on the characteristics of the 4680 battery, the new technical requirements mainly affect the following seven aspects: batteries, high nickel cathodes, silicon-based anodes, carbon nanotubes, new lithium salt LiFSI, structural parts, equipment (including: laser film cutting equipment, coating machines, winding machines, high-speed laser chippers, welding equipment, etc.).
The advantages are obvious and are expected to drive a new industrial chain
According to the data released by Tesla, the 4680 new battery (46mm diameter, 80mm length) has achieved a number of technical indicators: the mileage is increased by 16%, the charge and discharge power is 6 times that of the 2170 battery, the energy is 5 times that of the 21700 battery, and the cost can be reduced by 14%.
Source: Tesla Battery Day
It is expected that Tesla's models equipped with 4680 batteries will sell more than 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, with a penetration rate of nearly 50% in Tesla's total sales, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123GWh. With future yields and costs, the 4680 battery may be used on model S and Model X.
According to foreign media CleanTechnica, Zhongxin Kazuo, head of Panasonic's battery department, said that Panasonic will trial production of 4680 batteries in April 2022, and it is expected to achieve Tesla installation in 2022.
Structural design of Tesla's 4680 Model Y
Source: Tesla 2021 Berlin Factory Open House
The characteristics of 4680 battery high energy density and relatively low cost have the following impact on the new demand of the industrial chain:
1) Battery: Panasonic will trial-produce 4680 batteries in April 2022 and install Tesla in 2022; Ewell Lithium announced the expansion of 20GWh large cylindrical battery projects for passenger cars in November; StoreDot announced the successful production of the first 4680 cylindrical battery in September 2021, which can be fully charged in just 10 minutes. The company also cooperates with Ewell Lithium Energy. In addition, LG, Samsung SDI, NINGDE era, BAK batteries have been deeply laid out 4680 batteries.
2) High nickel cathode: 4680 and higher energy density of high nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon-based negative electrode is more matched. High nickel has a high energy density: the energy density of the NCM811 battery module is above 200Wh/kg, while the NCM333, NCM523, and NCM622 are between 150-180Wh/kg. (Zhongwei Shares, Ronbay Technology, Dangsheng Technology, Huayou Cobalt, etc.)
3) Silicon-based anode: Model3 in the 2170 battery addition of 5%, is expected to add 4680 battery to 10%, the current silicon-based anode unit price of 220,000 yuan / ton, single ton net profit of 65,000 yuan, then corresponding to 2170 single GWh profit of 4.06 million yuan, 4680 is 8.13 million yuan. Silicon-based anode development space is large, is expected to 2022-2025 compound growth rate of 46% (Putailai, Shanshan shares, Beiterui, etc.)
4) Carbon nanotubes: The conductivity of the silicon-based anode itself is poor, so the use of single-walled carbon nanotubes needs to be increased. (Tiannai Technology is one of the largest carbon nanotube manufacturers in China.) ）
5) LiFSI: The new lithium salt LiFSI has better thermal stability, electrochemical stability and higher conductivity; (Gifted Materials: 20,000 tons of electrolyte basic materials device and 4,000 tons per year LiFSI device have reached a stable production state. ）
6) Structural parts: domestic structural parts manufacturers actively layout 4680 battery shell and cover; because the size of the 4680 battery shell and the shape of the 330ml can are similar, the can production equipment is also more convenient to develop the battery shell automated production line. (Slack: has developed a fully automated battery shell production line; Kodali: the company has the ability to produce 4680 battery technology accumulation and production of compact structural parts of various cylindrical batteries; Ningbo Jingda: steel shell 4680 tensile equipment has completed the prototype production; Zhenyu Technology: structural parts business is deeply bound to the Ningde era. ）
7) Equipment: Pilot Intelligence: 4680 technology reserves are abundant, has launched a winding machine suitable for all-polar ear cylindrical batteries; Li Yuanheng: laser membrane cutting equipment, coating machine, etc.; Hangke Technology: the company binds LG and other overseas large factories, is expected to occupy market share in the 4680 battery production line back-end equipment; Win He Technology: has launched a large cylindrical winding machine and other products, and LG, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. have in-depth cooperation; Lianying Laser: has 4680 battery welding technology, has been prototype assembly and debugging Haimuxing: The leader of the high-speed laser producer, the leading electrodeless ear cutting technology, has been verified in the Tesla 4680 battery.
Summary: From the perspective of new consumption, the silicon-based anode is expected to show a doubling growth, it is expected that the domestic silicon-based anode material shipments will exceed 10,000 tons in 2023, an increase of 50% year-on-year, the year-on-year growth rate from less than 10% in 2022 to 50% in 2023, the growth rate will accelerate from 2023; it is expected that the shipment volume in 2025 will reach 22,000 tons, and the compound growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be 46%. From the perspective of technology upgrade needs, the 4680 battery puts forward higher requirements for the performance of new equipment, and has a first-mover advantage for companies that have existing technical reserves.