(Report Producer/Author: Soochow Securities, Huang Xili)
1. NVH faucet, customer structure continues to upgrade
1.1. Focus on the research and development of core automotive components, positioning modular suppliers
Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Ningbo, China, Tuopu Group has been in the automotive industry for more than 30 years. The company is engaged in the development, production and sales of core components of the automobile modular suppliers, the company set up at the beginning of the focus on rubber vibration damping products and sound insulation products, is the domestic NVH field leader. After gradual development, the current main business includes vibration damping systems, interior systems, intelligent driving (chassis electronics) systems, chassis lightweight systems, thermal management systems, air suspension systems and other six series of products.
1.2. The shareholding structure is clear, and the shareholding of the actual controller is concentrated
According to the company's third quarter report in 2021, the company's largest shareholder is Maike International Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited, with a direct shareholding of 62.94%. Ningbo Zhuyue Investment Management Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned grandson company of the company's controlling shareholder, Maike International Holdings (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., and is a consistent actor, with a direct shareholding ratio of 0.49%. The actual controller and ultimate beneficiary of the Company is Wu Jianshu, who directly holds 0.65% of the shares of Tuopu Group and directly holds 100% of the equity of Maike International Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited. Wu Jianshu directly and through the path holds a total of 64.08% of the shares of Tuopu Group, and the top ten shareholders of the company hold a total of 70.81% of the shares, and the equity is relatively concentrated.
1.3. Benefit from the rise of new energy vehicles and continue to encourage technological innovation
Benefiting from the rise of new energy vehicles, the company's revenue has increased rapidly. Benefiting from the rapid rise of downstream new energy vehicle customers, electrification and lightweight trends, the company's revenue increased rapidly, achieving revenue of 7.823 billion yuan from January to September 2021, +81.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 753 million yuan, an increase of 94.44% year-on-year.
Technological innovation continues to be encouraged, and R&D investment is increasing. Before the company was listed, it had the synchronous research and development strength of the global main engine factory, and continued to increase investment in research and development after the listing, in addition to the traditional business, around the lightweight / intelligent driving direction to continue to increase the layout, attach importance to the introduction of talents, the company's per capita income increased rapidly.
1.4. Champion of the single category track, the customer structure is continuously updated
1.4.1. Deep ploughing of shock absorption + noise reduction basic core business
NVH product structure: The company's main products of shock absorption + interior are: 1) shock absorption products, torsion vibration, suspension, bushing three types of rubber shock absorption products; 2) interior products, front wall panels, trunk partitions, ceilings, carpets and other noise reduction and interior functional parts.
In-depth cooperation with OEMs to achieve synchronous development. Automotive NVH design is a systematic project, the company has established stable partnerships with major domestic and foreign OEMs, and has participated in the simultaneous research and development of Multiple OEM projects such as Shanghai GM, General Motors, BMW, audi and so on. The company participates in the design and testing of vehicle performance and structure in synchronous R&D, which becomes an important part of the R&D system of OEMs, which is conducive to maintaining a good cooperative relationship between the company and OEMs, thereby maintaining a stable customer base in the OEM market.
1.4.2. Shock absorption products rank first in the country and enter the international OEM supporting system
Shock absorption is a metal-rubber composite product that isolates the powertrain from ground vibration conduction. Shock absorption products are divided into rubber shock absorption products and spring damping shock absorption products, of which rubber shock absorption products are most widely distributed in the whole vehicle, which is used for elastic connection and cushioning between various structural parts such as powertrain, body, chassis and so on. The company's rubber shock absorber products have a bicycle supporting value of about 600 yuan, and the price and gross profit margin remain relatively stable.
The market share of products ranked first in the country and entered the international OEM supporting system. The company's rubber shock absorption products in 2011-2013 sales ranked first in the country continuously, according to our calculations, the domestic market share in 2019 is about 7.4% (sales caliber). At the same time, it is exported to North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions, and is one of the few parts suppliers in China that has entered the international OEM system.
The customer structure is relatively scattered, with GM, Mobis, Geely, etc. as the main customers. The customer pattern of shock absorption systems is relatively fragmented, including OEMs such as GM and Geely, Tier1 such as Hyundai Mobis and automotive aftermarket companies such as Ferdinand. The company's competitors in the field of shock absorption include Anhui Zhongding, Ninghai Jianxin, Donghai Rubber and Plastics and other enterprises.
1.4.3. Sound insulation system - > the acoustic package of the whole vehicle, and the interior products are continuously upgraded
Sound insulation system - > the vehicle acoustic set, the product continues to upgrade. The main role of the sound insulation system is to reduce or eliminate in-vehicle noise such as engine noise, road noise and wind noise. The sound insulation materials and products used vary from place to place. At present, the company's products have been developed into engine interior systems, exterior systems, occupant compartment interior systems, luggage compartment interior systems, sealing systems and other vehicle acoustic sets, which can realize the system-level vehicle sound insulation scheme.
New energy customers increased, and revenue bottomed out. From 2015 to 2020, the company's interior product revenue increased from 1.135 billion yuan to 2.224 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 14.4%. During the period from 2015 to 2018, revenue growth was rapid due to the volume of supporting models such as Geely and SAIC-GM. After 2018, the overall decline in the automotive industry has affected the sales of Geely and SAIC-GM, resulting in a decline in interior product revenue, and Tesla's sales volume, resulting in rapid revenue growth in 2021.
The characteristics of the industry lead to a relatively scattered pattern, and the gross profit of the whole industry layout is relatively high. Because of the low barriers and the need for nearby matching, the industry concentration is low and the gross profit margin level is low, and the main competitors are domestic players, including Huayu Automobile, Ningbo Huaxiang, Changshu Auto Accessories, etc. The company realizes the layout of the whole industry chain from the fiber system - the substrate system - the fabric system, so the gross profit margin is acceptable.
The core customers are GM + Geely, and the new forces bring major increments. The main customers of the interior system are traditional vehicle companies such as SAIC-GM, Tongwuling and Geely Automobile. In addition, Tesla, Gaohe, AITO and other new car-making forces have also become interior product customers, with the rapid growth of sales of subsequent new forces car companies, will bring major revenue increases to the company's interior systems.
1.4.4. The customer structure is continuously updated, and the production capacity is globally distributed
Grasp the industry trend, the customer structure continues to update. Before 2015, GM was the company's largest customer, and the company followed GM's growth as the total number of passenger cars in the country rose. Since 2015, independent brands have gradually begun to rise, and Geely Automobile has become a new growth point for the company and has become the largest customer. In the wave of new energy vehicles that began in 2020, Tesla became the company's largest customer, continuing to drive further growth in the company's revenue. At present, the company has completed the supply layout of new car-making forces such as Rivian and Huawei, and is expected to follow the trend of the new energy industry in the future and continue to increase the volume of revenue.
Overseas layout R & D center, production capacity to achieve global layout. As of 2016, the company has set up two overseas technology research and development centers in Detroit, USA and Gothenburg, Sweden, and professional technicians in Toronto, Canada, Weinheim, Germany, Levallu, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Tanjung Marin, Malaysia. It has manufacturing plants in China, Malaysia, Brazil and Poland. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2. Strategic vision + talent mechanism to promote production capacity reserves + category expansion
2.1. Have a strategic forward-looking vision and use the capital market to continuously reserve production capacity against the trend
The national passenger car has entered a downward cycle, and the growth rate of the company's core customers has slowed down. Since 2017, the national passenger car market has entered a downward cycle, demand continues to be lower than expected, from the peak of 2016 24.377 million units gradually declined, the company's core customers SAIC-GM and Geely Automobile reached the peak of sales in 2017/2018 respectively, and since then sales have gradually declined.
The company's production capacity expanded against the trend, and the ROE/net profit margin/asset turnover data declined. In the downward cycle of the industry, the company raises funds through IPO/fixed increase, etc., and continuously expands its production capacity against the trend to reserve capacity for the next cycle. In the continuous expansion of production capacity, the depreciation caused by large capital expenditures and gradual consolidation has led to a sharp increase in depreciation, resulting in declining ROE/net profit margins and asset turnover ratios.
The sales recovery of traditional car companies + the rise of new energy customers, and the recovery of capacity utilization rates have brought about improvements in profit indicators. Since 2020, with the stabilization of sales of the company's traditional customers, the recovery of orders, and the rapid increase in the output of new energy core customers, the company's capacity utilization rate has increased rapidly, resulting in improvements in net profit margin, asset turnover and other indicators, and finally promoted the company's ROE indicators to rebound.
2.2. Unique talent mechanism + scientific management structure to promote the expansion of product categories
Adhere to the non-family scientific management model, and attach great importance to the introduction of talents. The company adheres to the non-family scientific management model and actively introduces professional managers. Mr. Wu Jianshu, the actual controller of the company, has no close relatives as middle-level or above management personnel, and the president, vice president, financial director, etc. are all professional managers, and have established a sound corporate governance structure and a scientific and transparent decision-making and management system. The company attaches great importance to the introduction, selection and training of talents, widely attracts high-end talents at home and abroad, and has established a scientific research team of nearly 2,000 people composed of more than 100 doctors and masters.
Adopt the division system management structure + horizontal flat management mode to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. The company's divisional management structure at the group level can effectively reduce management pressure, focus on the business under its jurisdiction, improve operational efficiency, and form relative competition. At the level of the business department, the horizontal flat management mode with sales as the leader is adopted to ensure that the organization is market-oriented, gathers resources, and responds quickly. Adopt a pyramid organization at the business unit level, strictly implement process standards, improve efficiency and reduce costs. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3. Build a "2+N" product matrix, target Tier 0.5 suppliers
3.1. Replication of successful experience + iterative upgrading of technology to create a "2+N" product matrix
With NVH's successful experience, technology iteration drives category expansion. Relying on the successful experience in the field of management + R&D + manufacturing + business on the NVH track, the company continuously realizes the iterative upgrading of technology on the basis of the original products. 1) With the help of rubber shock absorption products metal-rubber technology, cut into the lightweight chassis + air suspension business; 2) through the acquisition of Fortuna and Zhejiang Jiali, complete the high-strength steel chassis technology; 3) vigorously develop the automotive electronics business, and rely on the electronic control technology and precision manufacturing capabilities it brings, successfully develop the thermal management series of products; 4) with the lightweight chassis business accumulated die casting + mold manufacturing technology, cut into the field of integrated die casting.
The value of bicycles continues to increase, targeting Tier 0.5 suppliers. At present, the company has developed a "2+ N" product matrix on the basis of the original shock absorption + acoustic products, and the value of the bicycle has been continuously improved from the original 2000 yuan: 1) the value of the lightweight chassis system is about 3000 yuan; 2) the value of the automotive electronic bicycle is about 3000 yuan (promoting); 3) the value of the integrated heat pump system is about 3000 yuan; 4) the value of the air suspension system bicycle is about 8000 yuan (promotion); 5) the integrated die-cast body structure products. The value of the bicycle is about 2000-10000 yuan (promoting). The company is able to provide products worth more than 20,000 yuan per bicycle, and strives to achieve modular supply, shifting to a Tier 0.5 corner.
3.2. Aluminum alloy lightweight: the chassis product is quickly increased, and the integrated die casting completes the layout
With the promotion of policies, the standards of energy conservation and emission reduction have been continuously improved. "Energy conservation and emission reduction" has become the main theme of the mainland's economic development. The automotive sector is the focus of promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2020, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technical Route 2.0" revised and compiled by experts from all industries organized by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China was released, which made specific requirements for the fuel consumption of new passenger cars, and the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in 2025/2030/2035 needed to reach 4.6, 3.2, 2.0L/100km, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction standards continued to be upgraded.
The penetration rate of new energy continues to increase, and mileage anxiety has become the core concern of consumers. With the dual boost of policy + market, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has increased rapidly, from 2.7% in January 2020 to 21.3% in December 2021, and with the continuous expansion of the share of new energy vehicles, related problems have gradually become prominent. According to the results of the "China Automobile Circulation Association" interview and survey on the experience of new energy vehicle owners, the most concerned issue for users when purchasing is "battery endurance", accounting for 31.8%, and mileage anxiety has become the core concern of consumers buying new energy vehicles.
Lightweight helps energy saving and emission reduction, and aluminum alloy materials have the best cost performance. According to the data of "Bühler China", for every 10% reduction in the weight of the car, up to 5-10% of the fuel can be saved, and for every 100kg reduction in the curb weight, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers can be reduced by 0.3-0.6L, and the CO2 emission reduction is reduced by 8.5g/km, so lightweight has become a key development technology in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, in different lightweight materials, comparing a variety of metal alloys and carbon fibers, aluminum alloys have advantages in many aspects, such as performance, density and price, and are the most cost-effective lightweight materials.
The aluminum alloy market space for passenger cars is vast, and the average vehicle consumption will nearly double in 2025. According to the data released by the International Aluminum Association, the amount of aluminum used in traditional passenger cars in China in 2020 is about 139kg/vehicle. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Energy Conservation and New Energy Technology Route Map" proposes that the mainland's 2025/2030 single-vehicle aluminum volume targets are 250kg/vehicle and 350kg/vehicle, and the domestic aluminum market space in 2025 is about 136.2 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 2020-2025 is 17.1%, of which the three-electric system/lightweight chassis/body structure 2020-2025 CAGR is 62%/25%/72% respectively.
Mergers and acquisitions + expansion of production capacity, cutting into the field of aluminum alloy chassis lightweight. The company's initial chassis business was control arm products, and in 2015, in order to enhance the comprehensive strength of the suspension division, optimize resource allocation, and improve synergy, the suspension system and the chassis system division were merged. In 2016, the company obtained a lightweight chassis fixed-point agreement for Tesla Model 3 and Nio models, and purchased 500 mu of land in Hangzhou Bay in November of the same year to expand production capacity. In 2017, the company acquired Fortuna and obtained a full set of chassis-related system product technologies, including front subframe assembly, rear axle assembly, swing arm assembly, control arm and so on.
Cut into the supply chain of new energy brands, benefit from increased sales and rapid growth in revenue. The company's lightweight parts chassis customers are mainly for new energy vehicle companies, including Tesla, Rivian, Weilai, Gaohe, Xilisi and so on. In 2020, Tesla Shanghai Factory completed construction, sales in 2021 quickly increased, the company to model 3/Y supply a full set of chassis system, chassis system revenue grew rapidly, 2021H1 year-on-year growth rate of 68.9%. The subsequent production and release of other new energy brands will further promote the company's revenue growth.
Capital + technology + customer + management comprehensive ability barriers, production capacity reserves are the most sufficient. The company's advantages: 1) with the overall chassis design capabilities and test verification capabilities; 2) master the die casting, forging, extrusion of a variety of lightweight processes; 3) overcome the chassis core moving parts technical difficulties. Compared with other lightweight chassis system competitors, the company's production capacity reserves are the most sufficient, which can meet the needs of the rapid expansion of the new energy industry chain and the new forces of car manufacturing, and fully respond to the new opportunities brought about by industrial change.
Tesla leads the integrated die casting technology, car companies + supply chains have followed up, and the market space is vast. In 2020, Tesra launched an integrated die-casting technology, which replaced the traditional body manufacturing stamping + welding method through die casting, and used a large die casting machine with a clamping force of 6000T to streamline more than 70 parts of the entire back plate into one, and the subsequent plan is to replace the off-body assembly of 370 parts with 2-3 large die castings. This technology can effectively improve the manufacturing efficiency of body structural parts, reduce manufacturing costs, improve body safety and body manufacturing accuracy. Based on the above advantages, a number of car companies announced to follow up on this technology, according to our calculations, the domestic integrated die casting market space is expected to reach 38.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR in 2021-2025 is 205%.
Strategic cooperation with Lijin Group, layout integrated die casting. In September 2021, the company and Luxon Group reached a new strategic cooperation agreement on the automotive lightweight, large-scale automotive structural parts integration molding project, on the basis of the purchase of nearly 100 die casting machines, Tuopu Xianglijin continued to order 21 sets of die casting units, including 6 sets of 7200 tons, 10 sets of 4500 tons and 5 sets of 2000 tons of die casting equipment.
Lightweight full process + super die casting machine layout, lightweight chassis and integrated die casting business growth can be expected. Compared with competitors, the company has a full set of die casting, extrusion and forging processes in the field of aluminum alloy processing, and has ordered the largest number of large die casting machine equipment, and its business growth in the field of lightweight chassis and integrated die casting can be expected.
3.3. Intelligent driving: EVP vacuum pumps are the first to be mass-produced, and IBS is waiting to bloom
EVP vacuum pumps took the lead in mass production, and electric intelligence jointly promoted the popularization of line control. Because of the lack of vacuum source, new energy vehicles need vacuum pumps or line control to assist in completing system pressure construction. Intelligent demand for faster response to the execution unit (ESC construction pressure 600ms, line control dynamic construction voltage
Chassis domain integration has become a trend, and the chassis electronics matrix is perfect. In the context of electric intelligence, through the by-wire control, the braking and steering functions of the whole vehicle can be realized through multiple channels, so the control functions of all the chassis-by-wire control systems are uniformly controlled as the most efficient way and the future evolution trend. The company has a complete product matrix in the field of braking and steering systems, and is expected to continue to expand its business in line with industry trends.
3.4. Thermal management: up-and-coming, active layout of system-level suppliers
The trend of electrification has promoted the upgrading of thermal management systems, and the market space for new energy thermal management systems is vast. Electrification brings about the electrification of key components such as pumps, valves, and compressors in the thermal management system, and new components need to be added for the thermal management process of new components such as motors and batteries. At the same time, in order to increase the mileage of new energy vehicles and improve heating efficiency, the heat pump system used will increase the value of the thermal management system. According to our calculations, the value of the thermal management system of new energy vehicles is about 6500 yuan, the value of bicycles of traditional fuel vehicles is about 2500 yuan, and the value of new energy vehicle heat exchangers, air compressors, pumps, valves and other products is expected to reach 64.1 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 48.7% in 2021-2025.
Relying on automotive chassis electronic technology, we entered the field of thermal management systems. Relying on the electronic control and precision manufacturing capabilities formed in the early research and development of the IBS intelligent brake system, the company successfully developed heat pump air conditioners, electronic expansion valves, electronic water valves and other products to supply Tesla heat pump systems. In 2021, the company will establish a wholly-owned subsidiary of the thermal management system, with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan, and step up the research and development of the integrated heat pump assembly 2.0 system, which is expected to be supplied to customers outside Tesla.
Independent suppliers based on the advantages of single products, and strive to achieve systematic supply. Overseas giants in the field of thermal management, such as Valeo/Denso/MAHLE/Han Ang, etc., have a relatively perfect product layout. Domestic independent suppliers rely on their own advantages of single products, such as Topito IBS intelligent brake system research and development capabilities, heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve, and other products into the thermal management system. Yinlun co., Ltd. is based on the advantages of heat exchangers, and Sanhua Intelligent Control is based on the advantages of valves, and strives to achieve system integration and supply capabilities.
3.5. Air suspension: Cut into the blue ocean market and quickly establish supply capacity
Luxury car high-end configuration, improve the driving experience. Air suspension can bring: 1) actively adjust the chassis height, just to achieve aerodynamics during driving; 2) better isolate the road vibration, provide a non-linear stiffness curve; 3) according to the road feedback and body attitude damping real-time changes, change the softness and hardness of the suspension, so as to provide a better driving experience.
The system composition is complex, the high cost leads to extremely low penetration, and the market space is vast. Because the system of the complete active suspension system includes gas supply units (compressors, gas tanks, distribution valves, etc.), air springs, variable damping shock absorbers, control systems, air/circuit lines and other components, in the past, the overall supply was carried out by overseas Tier1, and the value of the bicycle was 12,000-14,000 yuan, mainly configured by luxury models of more than 700,000 yuan. According to our calculations, as of 2021, the national air suspension permeability rate is about 1.8%, excluding imported models, the penetration rate is about 0.7%, and the penetration rate has a lot of room for improvement.
Splitting supply accelerates the localization process of core units, and independent enterprises achieve mass production. The two core components of the air suspension system: air springs and air supply units (air compressors, distribution valves, and air receivers) have high technical barriers. In order to reduce the configuration cost of the system, the OEMs give fixed points separately by splitting the assembly, which provides an opportunity for domestic local suppliers to break through at a single point.
Consumption upgrade + independent brands to break through upwards, the price of configuration models has dropped significantly. Compared with traditional independent brands, intelligent technology and driving experience are the main selling points of independent new power brands and independent high-end brands, and air suspension meets both these two needs. In the process of continuous breakthroughs to high-end of independent traditional/new power brands, it also continues to provide consumers with a more comfortable driving experience and higher "cost performance", so that the price of air suspension configuration models continues to plummet, and the price of models equipped with air suspension such as Weilai Automobile/Hongqi/Lantu/Extreme Krypton has dropped to 300,000 yuan.
Increased demand + cost reduction, jointly promoting the accelerated popularization of air suspension, the market space is vast. Demand side: 1) the demand for mileage increase and weight reduction brought about by the improvement of energy penetration rate; 2) the demand for intelligent technology and driving experience brought about by the upgrading of consumer demand; 3) the demand for "cost-effective" configuration brought about by the breakthrough of independent brands to high-end jointly promote the increase in demand for air suspension. Supply side: 1) car companies require the assembly to split the supply, bringing about a breakthrough in the fixed point of independent suppliers; 2) the continuous decline in system costs brought about by domestic substitution, which further accelerates the popularization process of air suspension. According to our calculations, the air suspension market space is expected to reach 16.3 billion yuan by 2025, and the CAGR in 2021-2025 is 51.3%.
The air suspension plant was completed, and comprehensive supporting capabilities were quickly established. In November 2021, the first plant of Tuopu Air Suspension System was officially completed, covering an area of 60,000 square meters and a construction area of 80,000 square meters, and is scheduled to be officially put into operation in June 2022, which can achieve an annual output of 2 million air suspensions and 500,000 vehicles/year supporting capacity. The company has completed the full set-up of front/rear air spring assemblies, integrated air supply units, height/acceleration sensors, and ECAS control systems. It also has the technology of single and multi-chamber, providing different suspension stiffnesses to cope with a variety of working conditions.
4. The new model has been recognized by new energy customers, and the capacity reserve responds to the industrial trend
4.1. North American customers are the first to adopt modular supply, and the entry of new forces is expected to drive supply chain change
North America's bicycle value increased, taking the lead in completing the Tier0.5 strategy. At present, the supply chain of domestic car companies tends to split the supply, except for tesla Model 3/Y to accept modular supply, the value of bicycles for new forces and traditional car companies is relatively low.
The company's strategic focus shifted to North America, taking the lead in achieving the Tier0.5 strategy in North America, according to the company's disclosure, the value of the supporting bicycles in the Amazon Rivian project reached 11,000 yuan, and the supporting value of Ford's Transit electric vehicles was also greatly improved.
4.2. Sales volume of new energy customers is growing rapidly, and production capacity reserves are in response to industry trends
The penetration rate of new energy has been continuously improved, and the output of new energy customers has been rapidly climbing. From 2020 onwards, the penetration of new energy from new car sales will increase rapidly. According to the statistics of the multiplication association, it increased from 2.7% in January 2020 to 21.3% in December 2021. The company's new energy customers' output is rapidly climbing, taking Tesla as an example, global sales of 490,000 units in 2020, global sales of 990,000 units in 2021, it is expected that global sales in 2025 can reach 4.5 million units, 2021-2025 CAGR reached 46.0%, other new energy customers also maintain a high-speed growth trend.
Sufficient production capacity reserves to cope with the general trend of new energy reform. After the company was listed, it used its own capital and financing funds to increase the expansion of production capacity reserves. Before the listing, it owned a total of 855 mu of land, and as of 2021Q3, it had more than 3573 mu of land use rights, and the new land was mainly used for lightweight chassis, air suspension, automotive electronics and thermal management systems. According to our estimates, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 33.82 million units in 2025, and the CAGR in 2021-2025 is 54%. The company has made sufficient production capacity reserves for the transformation of the new energy industry.
5. Profit Forecast
1) The shock absorption business maintained steady growth; 2) the sound insulation/lightweight chassis business followed the rapid growth of new energy customers; 3) the automotive electronics business gradually increased; 4) the integrated heat pump version 2.0 in the thermal management system was gradually promoted; 5) the air suspension system was officially put into operation in June 2022 according to the company's disclosure, and the volume was gradually increased in 2023.
Based on the above core assumptions, we forecast that the company's revenue for 2021-2023 will be 10.95/151.5/20.65 billion yuan, which is +68.1%/+38.4%/+36.3%, respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent will be 11.0/16.3/2.34 billion yuan, which is +75.1%/+48.3%/+43.6% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS of 1.00/1.48/2.13 yuan, corresponding to PE 54.66/36.86/25.67 times.
We selected four companies with the same business: Bethel (line control + chassis lightweight), Wencan (integrated die casting), Baolong Technology (air suspension), Sanhua Intelligent Control (thermal management) as comparable companies of Tuopu Group, with an average PE of 54.8.5/31.9/23.5 times from 2021 to 2023. We believe that the company's technology continues to iterate, with a complete product technology matrix and sufficient production capacity reserves. Under the industry trend of rapidly increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, it is expected to gain a larger market share and have a higher valuation premium.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].