Written by | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
It may only be a matter of time before Volkswagen, one of the world's largest automakers, and Huawei, the world's leading ICT company, come together.
Especially when the two parties unanimously chose not to comment on the rumors, the melon-eating masses have more reason to believe that there can be nothing between the two.
The story of Volkswagen and Huawei can actually start from 2015.
At CES Asia that year, the two sides announced a global cooperation in the field of vehicle networking.
One wants to localize, one wants to globalize, and Volkswagen Huawei's one-shot fit meets the most basic characteristics of love at first sight.
At that time, Yu Chengdong, who was in charge of negotiations, was still a cautious non-mouth cannon type person, and Volkswagen at that time was also a traditional enterprise that sold fuel vehicles vigorously.
Yu Chengdong said that the car is becoming the largest mobile smart terminal, and Huawei hopes to provide better on-board smart devices and interactive experience with its rich communication experience and accumulation in the field of smart phones.
However, in the next seven years, except for the middle Huawei and Audi signed a memorandum of cooperation on intelligent and connected cars, no one has gone any further.
Until the exposure of a number of heavy news in the second half of last year, there was also a new story and reverie space between the two.
NO.1 [Reversal]
This is a humble piece of news.
On July 7, 2021, Huawei announced that it has signed a patent licensing agreement with a Volkswagen parts supplier covering 4G connected devices in the car, which is expected to cover 30 million Volkswagen brand vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that Huawei said that this is the biggest order it has signed in the automotive industry.
It was also this month that Su Zhen, who was the director of the intelligent driving product department of Huawei's intelligent car solution BU, caused a huge controversy for making a "Tesla killing" statement at an event, and then he was dismissed from his original position and transferred to the reserve team for training and assignment.
At the end of October 2021, Huawei's "love affair" with Volkswagen was exposed for the first time, and it was reported that the two parties planned to form a joint venture company to jointly develop autonomous driving technology.
According to the statement at that time, the new company aims to provide relevant technical solutions to the Volkswagen Group as a supplier, and one of the ways of cooperation is for Volkswagen to pay for the controlling party, while Huawei mainly contributes to the technical IP (intellectual property rights).
However, Huawei immediately debunked the rumor that it was "not true", and the public chose silence.
In January 2022, Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan responded positively to the rumors at the end of last year for the first time, saying, "Huawei is a very powerful Chinese technology company, and we maintain communication with Huawei, but there is no information that can be confirmed at this stage." ”
In the same month, Huawei confirmed that Su Zhen had left the company, and there were rumors that he would lead the team to join the autonomous driving company set up by Volkswagen in China and serve as the CTO, but the news did not follow up.
Only a month later, foreign media broke the news again, saying that Volkswagen plans to acquire Huawei's autonomous driving department, but after being re-corrected by domestic media, Volkswagen's real goal may only be a 700-person business unit specializing in autonomous driving. (*At that time, the number of Huawei's entire autonomous driving team exceeded 2,000 people)
According to foreign media, the two parties have been negotiating the project for several months, but the price of Huawei's psychological expectation is 5 billion euros, and volkswagen is only willing to give 3 billion, and the two sides may be deadlocked.
NO.2 [Variable]
The two sides, which have been slow to make new progress, have also recently felt the invisible forces from the political level.
The first is that Merkel ended her 16-year term, and the former German chancellor visited China 12 times during his tenure and facilitated a number of major joint ventures between the two countries in the automotive field, which benefited Volkswagen in particular.
Secondly, the restructuring of the new German cabinet was completed (for the first time, it was changed to a three-party joint government), in which the Green Party's tough attitude towards China may affect the good economic and trade cooperation between the two countries before.
However, as Germany's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, this year coincides with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Germany, and in such a landmark year, the cooperation between Huawei and Volkswagen has become subtle.
Of course, the variables do not only exist in potential political risks, for Huawei, the most direct impact after repeated US sanctions in the past two years is the sharp decline in operating income data.
In 2021, Huawei achieved revenue of 634 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29%, while in 2020 there is still a consumer business with 54% of revenue, which has fallen to 42% in the first half of last year.
From another point of view, Huawei needs cash flow more than ever at this time, which also makes the sale of the autonomous driving department operational in principle.
Because according to Yu Chengdong, there are currently more than 5,000 employees in Huawei's car BU, and the annual cost is nearly 1 billion US dollars, and the corresponding is the difficult landing of its heavily funded advanced autonomous driving system in the terminal market.
As the world's first mass-produced model equipped with Huawei's ADS intelligent driving system, the Polar Fox Alpha S Huawei HI Version has been delayed many times.
Although the Currently Sold Cyrus SF5 and Q&I M5 are equipped with many advanced configurations, including Huawei's smart cockpit, there is no technical support from Huawei's autopilot department.
In addition to the Jihu, which is accelerating mass production delivery, including Avita, which is still on the road, and the new model of GAC, which is still planning, it is obvious that these three cannot take on the task of rapid volume in the short term.
On the one hand, there is a high amount of capital expenditure and labor costs, on the other hand, the lack of terminal scale effect, when the autonomous driving technology is temporarily unable to achieve profitability in the current business scenario, Huawei's attitude has begun to become subtle.
NO.3 [Pros and Cons]
How urgent the public's demand for improving their intelligence is, how high the enthusiasm for the acquisition of Huawei's autonomous driving sector is.
Volkswagen, the most radical but also the most burdened traditional carmaker, announced that it will invest up to 89 billion euros in electric vehicles and digitalization over the next five years, and also spent 7 billion euros to set up a software division "Car.Software", which it said will expand to 5,000 people by 2025.
Despite Volkswagen's efforts, the sense of powerlessness is evident when they are subject to the huge organizational structure and lengthy decision-making mechanisms of these traditional giants, when they conduct full-stack self-research in some new technology areas that require rapid iteration.
Therefore, in the eyes of many professionals, traditional car companies want to do a good job of autonomous driving or choose to be independent and give higher market freedom, or directly acquire a mature team.
Therefore, once Volkswagen can win the rumored Huawei autonomous driving department, even if it is only a small part, it can make Volkswagen get a multiplier effect with half the effort, and the blessing of a Chinese supplier can also indirectly bring more recognition to the Volkswagen brand.
For Huawei, Volkswagen's near-dominant market position in China, huge market ownership and aggressive intelligent electric vehicle strategy can bring Huawei a higher level of exposure and loading volume, which is precisely what Jihu or Avita cannot immediately cash in at this stage.
Another advantage of holding hands with Volkswagen is that the deal is expected to buy the international market door that Huawei has been eager to open, and from this point of view, the price difference of 2 billion euros between the two seems to be less important.
However, in the industry's view, once Huawei's set of automatic driving technology has problems, then the negative effects brought about by it will be the same amount of exposure, and if Volkswagen really acquires Huawei's automatic driving department in its entirety, then whether it is BAIC, Changan or GAC, it may face more complicated situations in the future in the landing of key technologies.
In summary, these problems are all things that Huawei needs to comprehensively weigh, of course, with Ren Zhengfei's reputation and personality, it is obvious that he will not not consider the feelings of existing partners.
NO.4 [Gains and Losses]
In 2015, Yu Chengdong, who was the CEO of Huawei's consumer BG, first made Huawei have a business connection with global car companies, but 7 years later, he was also the same, and almost offended most of huawei's automotive circle because of an improvisation.
If it were not for the "timely" news of Volkswagen's acquisition of Huawei's self-driving unit, a crisis public relations would have been inevitable.
Therefore, before there is any substantive progress, Huawei and Volkswagen have chosen not to comment this time.
Through cooperation with major car companies in recent years, Huawei may have more deeply realized that automatic driving is a long-term and high-investment industry, and if the scale effect cannot be achieved, then iteration is an empty phrase, which is undoubtedly fatal for the autonomous driving field that requires a large number of data sources.
Therefore, when the closed loop of "R&D- mass production- on the road - feedback - iteration" cannot be opened, then the burning of money in the field of automatic driving will become a bottomless pit.
In the industry's view, the complete abandonment of the autonomous driving department can exchange more cash flow for Huawei, whichse revenue has fallen sharply, and the partial abandonment is at least a positive test signal, no matter which model is ultimately adopted, it is believed that it is the optimal solution made by all parties based on maximizing their own interests.
At the same time, we should also see that consideration and willingness from the national level may play a more critical role in the cooperation between the two sides.