Based on the relevant research data of the hybrid vehicle industry at home and abroad, this report analyzes and evaluates the role and prospect of plug-in hybrid vehicle products in the domestic automobile market, comprehensively expounds the development status and trend of hybrid vehicle technology and market, as well as the upgrading characteristics of the new generation of hybrid technologies and products of domestic brands, and puts forward industry development suggestions suitable for the mainland from multiple levels in combination with the development needs of domestic plug-in hybrid vehicles.
introduction
First, the overall background of the industry
1. Macro background
2. Policy standards
3. Technology upgrade
4. Supply and demand growth
Second, the current situation and trend of technology
1. The status quo and trend of hybrid technology
2. Domestic hybrid technology
Third, the market development prospects
1. Consumer satisfaction evaluation and demand assessment
2. The hybrid market pattern is facing reshaping
4. Summary and recommendations
Research on the development status and trend of plug-in hybrid vehicles
The transformation and upgrading of the automotive power system is an inevitable choice for the sustainable development of the automotive industry. With the rapid development of the global economy, non-clean fossil energy is consumed in large quantities, the excessive emission of greenhouse gases causes the global climate to continue to warm, the shortage of oil resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment have become a serious problem that all mankind needs to face in the 21st century, and the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is the only way to cope with climate change and promote green development, which is of great significance to building a clean and beautiful world and building a community with a shared future for mankind.
Hybrid vehicles are the main path for the transition from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. The development of new energy vehicles can effectively alleviate energy and environmental pressures, but the current electrification transformation of the automotive industry is facing difficulties and challenges from many aspects such as policy, technology, cost, market and environment. Hybrid technology and products have a variety of advantages such as energy-saving potential, moderate cost, high market acceptance, energy environment friendliness, etc., and will play an irreplaceable and important role in the medium and long-term stage of automobile electrification transformation, with good development prospects.
1. Macro background
The low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry is the mission of the industry and is imperative. The mainland has repeatedly pledged and pledged to strive for "carbon peaking" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" (hereinafter referred to as "3060") by 2060. At present, the mainland is still in the stage of carbon emission growth, as of 2020, the total carbon emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons for three consecutive years, accounting for about 30% of the global carbon emissions, ranking first in the world. In the case that the proportion of clean energy in Europe is only 50%, the mainland requires "carbon neutrality" to be achieved half ahead of the European commitment time, which can be seen that the "3060" task is extremely arduous and needs the help of various industries.
Source: Our World In Data, compiled by China National Automobile Strategy Institute
Figure 1 Carbon emission trends and carbon neutrality targets in major countries
The decarbonization of the automotive industry plays an important role in achieving the overall carbon neutrality goal. Among the contributions of China's carbon emissions, the 2020 measurement data shows that the transportation sector accounts for about 11.5%, of which the automotive industry accounts for about 78% of transportation, that is, the carbon emissions of the automotive industry account for about 9% of the country's overall carbon emissions, involving nearly 900 million tons of direct road carbon emissions, although the proportion is small, the total amount is large and the growth rate is fast. By the end of 2021, the number of cars in the mainland has reached 302 million, and China's car ownership has not yet entered the saturation period, production and sales have begun to return to positive growth, and it is expected that by 2030, car sales will increase by more than 30%. Therefore, the decarbonization of vehicles will play a key role in curbing the growth of total carbon emissions and helping to achieve the dual carbon target.
Data source: Compiled by China Automobile Association and China National Automobile Strategy Institute
Figure 2 Overall automobile sales in China from 2001 to 2021
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are the only way to transform cars into low-carbon and electrified. In October 2020, under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and organized by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, more than 1,000 experts in the whole industry were revised and compiled after one and a half years, and the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" was released, which complied with the overall route requirements of carbon reduction peaking, deepening low carbon and net zero carbon emission in the low-carbon transformation of automobiles, and forward-looking put forward the overall development goals and plans of the automobile industry in the next fifteen years. It is expected that the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will gradually reach more than 50% in stages before 2035, while the fuel saving level of plug-in hybrid vehicles will continue to increase and the application field will gradually open up, thus promoting the further deepening of the transformation of vehicle electrification. This route plan will help to promote the steady reduction of the cost of technological upgrading and the steady improvement of market awareness and popularization in the process of transformation, so as to promote the orderly development of the industry. Therefore, plug-in hybrid vehicles are a crucial part of the process of automobile electrification transformation.
Source: Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0
Figure 3 Overall development goals of automotive technology in Mainland China
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are one of the more effective solutions for achieving low carbon in the automotive industry. Industry-related institutions have carried out a comprehensive life cycle carbon emission accounting for passenger car products in the current domestic market, and the 2021 research data shows that plug-in hybrid vehicles have a carbon dioxide emission reduction capacity of 12.7% compared with traditional gasoline models, and in the short and medium term of the transformation and development of the automobile industry (before 2030), it still plays an important role in promoting the automotive industry to achieve carbon reduction peak as soon as possible.
2. Policy standards
The automobile industry is an important part of the double-carbon "1+N" policy system, and the new and old policies will work together to promote green and low-carbon travel. Since the mainland clarified the "double carbon" goal, the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have stepped up their efforts to study and introduce relevant policies and measures, successively issued implementation plans and supporting measures for carbon peaking in key areas and industries, and built a carbon peak carbon neutrality "1 + N" policy system. Among them, the automobile industry is the pillar industry of the mainland national economy, and also the key node of carbon emission reduction in the basic industry and the transportation industry, and the future industry policy will be further extended to the carbon emission management of the automobile life cycle. In the current policy, as early as 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", and the low-carbon regulatory system with the carbon trading mechanism as the core in the future will be the key guarantee for the orderly reduction of emissions in the automobile industry.
Image source: China Automobile Data
Figure 4 The "1+N" policy system and the carbon emission peak action plan by 2030
The point management method has been further clarified, and the development of hybrid products has been continuously stimulated. In February 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on matters related to point management, officially launched the fuel consumption reduction policy for out-of-cycle technology/devices, and gave hybrid vehicles a reduction of 0.15L/100km, which will be applied to the points accounting in 2020. In addition, as early as June 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a revised plan for the management of double integrals. With the update of the "Passenger Car Fuel Consumption Evaluation Method and Indicators" standard, a new target has been set for the average fuel consumption of passenger cars, that is, it will drop to about 4L/100km in 2025, while plug-in hybrid models can still enjoy the preferential policy of no conversion of electric energy consumption until 2025 and continue to enjoy policy dividend support.
Image source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", compiled by China National Automobile Strategy Institute
Figure 5 Average fuel consumption target planning for passenger cars
The new standard for energy consumption testing of hybrid vehicles has been implemented, and the energy efficiency evaluation method of PHEV has been improved. In October 2021, the new version of the "Light Hybrid Electric Vehicle Energy Consumption Experimental Method" was officially implemented, one of its core changes is to refer to the evaluation method of saE in the United States, the introduction of pure electric utilization coefficient (UF), will be based on the fitting characteristics of the domestic travel chain mileage data, the fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid vehicles will be accounted for and evaluated, the new evaluation method will make the product energy consumption certification indicators closer to the real performance of plug-in hybrid products in the actual use environment in China.
Image source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, "Experimental Method of Energy Consumption of Light Hybrid Electric Vehicles", and sorted out by The National Automobile Strategy Institute
Figure 6 Comparison of new and old evaluation standards and distribution of pure electric mileage of PHEV products
3. Technology upgrade
Hybrid vehicles have entered a mature stage of technological development and product application. With the rapid development of global vehicle electrification and electrification, the hybrid technologies and products of domestic and foreign car companies have undergone several rounds of upgrading and iteration, and the fuel consumption level has been continuously reduced. For the core technologies, supply chain systems, infrastructure construction, laws and regulations related to hybrid vehicles, they have also made great progress and progress, and the large-scale application environment of hybrid vehicles has become more mature.
Image source: Online public information
Fig. 7 Toyota Prius models from 1997 to 2015
The comprehensive rise of hybrid technology upgrading and product application of domestic enterprises has created a new year of domestic hybrid development. In recent years, domestic enterprises have achieved new technological breakthroughs in hybrid system architecture, hybrid special engine (DHE), hybrid special transmission (DHT), drive motor, control system, power battery and so on. Domestic hybrid products in terms of core performance, reliability and other aspects have been close to, flat or even some indicators beyond the ability and performance of foreign brand products. The development of domestic hybrid vehicles has stood at a new historical starting point.
Image source: Great Wall public information
Figure 8 Composition of the core components of the hybrid powertrain system
The transformation of enterprise research and development direction and the deepening of cooperation within the industry have helped the sustainable development of hybrid technology. Affected by policies and markets, major automobile manufacturers have significantly reduced the number of research and development of traditional power systems in the future, while the number of research and development of hybrid systems is gradually increasing, and the increase in research and development investment is bound to bring about further upgrading and improvement of technology. At the same time, the gradual disintegration of some hybrid technology patent barriers will also promote a wider and deeper mutually beneficial cooperation among automobile manufacturers, accelerate the expansion of the application scale of hybrid vehicle products, and ensure the core power of the sustainable development of hybrid technology.
4. Supply and demand growth
The hybrid vehicle market has gradually transitioned to a consumption-driven stage, and the increase in domestic market demand is prominent. Consumer demand for fuel consumption, performance, range and other upgrades has led to a nearly three-fold increase in global hybrid vehicle production in the past seven years. From 2016 to 2021, the domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle market increased from 98,000 units to 603,000 units, and demand increased by 6.2 times. In the next 5-15 years, the global hybrid vehicle market, especially the Chinese market, will enter a period of rapid growth.
Data source: China Automobile Association, public information, Guoqi Strategy Institute collation
Figure 9 Domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle sales in 2016-2020
A new generation of domestic benchmarking products has emerged, filling the increase in market demand in a timely manner and further boosting consumer confidence in domestic brands. In 2021, a number of new plug-in hybrid model products of domestic brands have now been put on the market. The performance of some products has reached or exceeded the level of joint venture products, while some models provide a variety of capacity specification battery products to choose from, which is more in line with the actual needs of different consumers in the current domestic market. The comprehensive product strength has set a new benchmark in the domestic market, and has received rapid and positive feedback from the market, which will play a very important role in the rapid improvement of the market penetration rate of the hybrid system.
Source: Understand the car emperor, the National Automobile Strategy Institute collation
Figure 10 Product information of new plug-in hybrid models of some domestic brands in 2021
1. The status quo and trend of hybrid technology
The core technical advantage of plug-in hybrid vehicle products is that it can better balance the power and economy, and at the same time improve the driving experience of the whole vehicle. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the hybrid system has benefited from the addition of electrification systems and electric energy, and the dynamics and smoothness have been greatly improved. At the same time, the engine reduces or even eliminates the idle working conditions, in each driving condition, the engine can always maintain the high efficiency range of operation, in addition to the traditional fuel model is dissipated by the braking system in the form of heat part of the inertia kinetic energy, can be in the form of electrical energy recovery and storage and reused, energy consumption level can be greatly reduced.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles have a high potential for fuel savings. At present, hybrid vehicles are mainly divided into gasoline-electric hybrid HEV models (including light hybrid, medium hybrid and heavy hybrid), plug-in hybrid PHEV models and extended-range hybrid REEV models according to the degree of electrification. Compared with HEV models, THE PHEV has a fuel saving potential of up to 60 to 90% due to its larger capacity battery system and the ability to consume externally obtained electrical energy to drive the vehicle during the vehicle.
Source: Ouyang Minggao, "HeV-PHEV Hybrid System Configuration Analysis"
Figure 11 Key technologies and energy-saving potential of energy-saving and new energy vehicles
(1) System architecture
The technical architecture of hybrid power systems is diverse in form and has different characteristics. The hybrid system architecture scheme has been developed so far, and according to its type classification, it can be divided into: series, parallel and mixed forms.
The tandem system has excellent energy saving performance in urban conditions, and the current product application is relatively small. When the tandem system is running, the engine converts the chemical energy of the fuel into electrical energy through a generator, which is used to supply the driving motor to generate power to drive the vehicle, and the energy in the system is mixed in the form of electrical energy. As the engine speed torque is decoupled from the vehicle's operating conditions, the engine can always be selected to operate stably in an operating area with optimum efficiency by deploying the control system. It is used in urban areas and other medium and low speed and complex driving conditions, and the fuel saving performance is better. Under the condition of high-speed driving, the large power demand of the vehicle can already be better matched with the efficient working range of the engine, and the energy conversion link added in the series system at this time often cannot obtain the best overall efficiency.
Figure 12 Schematic of the principle of a tandem hybrid vehicle
The comprehensive fuel saving potential of the parallel system is limited, and there are more product applications in PHEV models at present. When the parallel system is running, the driving force of the vehicle is mainly provided by the engine, and the role of the motor is mainly to achieve "peak shaving and valley filling" for the driver's power demand under various working conditions, and to compensate or recover the power output of the engine to control and keep the engine running at a higher efficiency point. The advantage is that the power of the engine is directly involved in driving the vehicle, the efficiency loss is smaller, and the disadvantage is that the engine speed and vehicle speed cannot be decoupled, and the adjustment space of the engine operating conditions is relatively small, so the overall fuel saving capacity is limited.
Figure 13 Schematic of the principle of parallel hybrid vehicles
Hybrid systems are the main direction of current technological development and product application. It can be mainly subdivided into power shunt and series parallel form. Hybrid systems combine the advantages of different hybrid modes with more flexible energy distribution and dispatch capabilities, can adapt to more complex driving conditions, and achieve lower levels of combined fuel consumption. At present, about 70% of the models in the hybrid vehicle field use the dual-motor hybrid solution.
Figure 14 Schematic diagram of the principle of a hybrid hybrid vehicle
The large-scale commercial application of power shunting technology has the longest history and maintains continuous product competitiveness. When the power shunt system is running, the decoupling of the engine speed torque and the working conditions of the vehicle is realized through the shunt mechanism, and part of the engine output power is formed in series hybrid through the generator and the motor, and the other part is directly involved in driving the vehicle to form a parallel hybrid.
The parallel technology is developing rapidly, and the potential advantages of energy saving are gradually becoming prominent. When the series parallel system is running, it can be switched in series and parallel mode according to the vehicle operating conditions, and with the use of different gears (some models), the system has better comprehensive energy efficiency under full working conditions. Judging from the fuel consumption data released by domestic listed products, the series parallel connection system has a certain leading edge and has become the technical direction with the largest potential application scale and the most room for development in China.
Table 1 Comparison of different types of hybrid architectures
(2) Key technologies
Electric drive system to high-speed, efficient, high-density direction development. Hybrid vehicle drive motors mainly use permanent magnet synchronous motor systems. At present, the mainstream products have adopted advanced technologies such as low iron loss and high magnetic silicon steel sheet, Hair-pin flat wire winding, oil-cooled heat dissipation and frequency conversion electronic control to continuously improve the efficiency and performance of the motor system. It also makes the system smaller and modular, which is more conducive to the application of hybrid powertrains on different models.
Figure 15 General purpose 5ET50 hybrid transmission and motor system
Hybrid gasoline engines impact 50% thermal efficiency. The particularity of the operating conditions of hybrid vehicles puts forward new technical requirements for fuel engines, and also brings greater room for improvement. Hybrid special engines have greater potential for improvement than traditional fuel vehicle engines in terms of performance indicators such as the highest thermal efficiency. At present, the hybrid special engine products mainly use Atkinson or deep Miller cycles, and are equipped with efficiency improvement technologies such as cooling EGR, low friction and intelligent thermal management, and the maximum thermal efficiency of mainstream products has reached more than 40%.
Source: Society of Automotive Engineers of China, Intelligent Vehicle Design Pre-safety Research Center of Tsinghua University
Figure 16 Technical roadmap for high thermal efficiency engines
New energy power battery technology all-round upgrade, PHEV battery configuration scheme new ideas. Through the improvement of positive and negative electrode materials, the upgrading of group technology and the optimization of battery management system, the new energy power battery system has achieved leapfrog development in terms of cost, safety, life, high and low temperature and power performance. In addition, the battery capacity specifications and pure electric mileage of plug-in hybrid products have gradually got rid of the product positioning idea oriented by technical conditions and subsidy standards, and more from the needs of meeting the needs of users in different use scenarios. At present, more specifications and larger capacity battery system solutions are gradually realizing product applications.
Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Guoqi Strategic Institute
Figure 17 Pure electric mileage of some PHEV models
Hybrid intelligent control technology is applied to maximize the efficiency of vehicle operation in real scenarios. The current energy management system is optimized and calibrated for specific working conditions and use scenarios, resulting in control algorithms that cannot fully adapt to the user's personalized working conditions, resulting in the energy efficiency of the vehicle often not reaching the optimal state under actual working conditions. At present, relying on the development and application of intelligent network technology, it has the basic conditions for the development of an intelligent energy management system based on big data + AI cloud computing platform + C-V2X in driving scenarios, which can realize the real-time environmental information provided by navigation and vehicle-owned sensors and combined with the driver's operating style, reduce the uncertainty of the control system, adaptively select the best power system operation mode, energy recovery intensity, etc., and optimize the operation efficiency of the vehicle to the greatest extent. At present, the adaptive energy management system with some intelligent network functions has entered the stage of product application.
Figure 18 Intelligent networked energy management scheme based on real scene
2. Domestic hybrid technology
The research and development of the domestic new generation hybrid special technology platform has achieved outstanding results. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, major domestic car companies have increased their investment in research and development of hybrid technologies and products. In 2021, as the opening year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", a number of car companies have released their latest hybrid technology platforms, mainly including Weipai Intelligent DHT Hybrid, BYD DM-i Hybrid, Geely GHS2.0 Hybrid, Chery Kunpeng Hybrid, Dongfeng MHD Hybrid, etc. Among them, Weipai, BYD and Dongfeng have taken the lead in realizing the mass production and listing of new products. According to the public data of each manufacturer, the characteristics of the new generation of domestic hybrid technology are as follows:
Wei brand intelligent DHT, PHEV model maximum pure electric mileage of 320km. Weipai intelligent DHT system adopts P1 + P3 dual motor series parallel topology, while the engine direct drive mode provides two drive gears, at a speed of 35 ~ 40km / h or more can enter the engine direct drive mode, to achieve 97% of the maximum transmission efficiency, as well as 43 ~ 50% of the comprehensive efficiency of the power system, The NEDC fuel consumption of the Macchiato DHT model is 4.7L/100km. While taking into account the good economic performance, the two-speed design can also give full play to the maximum capacity of each power source in the full speed domain, achieve better power acceleration performance, and effectively improve the NVH performance performance under high-speed conditions. At present, there are three different specifications of the powertrain to meet the needs of different classes of models. Under the PHEV architecture, the upcoming MOCHA DHT-PHEV is equipped with a 39.67 kWh power battery, and its two-wheel drive long-endurance version can provide a pure electric driving range of 204km. Subsequently, Weipai Intelligent DHT will also provide 320 kilometers of ultra-long pure electric endurance solution, the application of the new battery pack power of 58.96KWh, which adopts a new L-type long battery cell and CTP pack scheme, the overall formation of a modular layout, to achieve free matching within the allowable range of voltage platform, no longer bound by the number of traditional module strings. At the same time, the amount of electricity increased by 24% compared with the past, the energy density increased by 9%, and the space utilization increased by 17%. In addition, the energy management system that can achieve intelligent prediction combined with high-precision maps will also be applied on the Weipai hybrid platform, which can intelligently and dynamically adjust the braking energy recovery strategy according to the road conditions to achieve better energy-saving results.
Source: Wei Pai Public Information
Figure 19 Weipai intelligent DHT powertrain release information
BYD returned to the "original intention", and the EHS electromix system redefined the gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle. BYD launched the F3DM model equipped with the first generation of DM technology in 2008, which is the earliest domestic brand in mainland China to enter the hybrid vehicle market, and after four rounds of technical iteration, it has launched a new fourth-generation DM-i hybrid technology platform. The EHS electromissible system equipped with it adopts a single-speed P1+ P3 series parallel form, which is composed of dual motors, dual electronic control, direct drive clutch, motor oil cooling system, and single-speed reducer, which realizes a high degree of integration of the system, reducing the volume and weight by 30% compared with the first generation of dual motor systems. The motor adopts flat wire technology, the maximum efficiency reaches 97.5%, the efficiency of more than 90% of the high efficiency zone accounts for 90.3%, and the use of oil cooling technology, the motor power density increased to 44.3kW / L. The electronic control system is equipped with BYD's fourth-generation autonomous IGBT technology, and the overall efficiency is 98.5%. The system is also equipped with a 1.5L high-efficiency engine for Hybrid hybrids with a maximum thermal efficiency of 43% and a hybrid-specific power blade battery.
Source: BYD Public Information
Figure 20 BYD's new DM-i technology EHS electromix system release information
Geely's next-generation hybrid system upgrade adopts a dual-motor DHT solution. Compared with the single-motor parallel system of a generation, geely GHS2.0 hybrid system, in addition to changing to the form of series parallel architecture of P1+P2, it also matches the 3-speed transmission, supports the hybrid system FOTA upgrade, has 20 intelligent driving modes, and cooperates with the new 1.5T Atkinson cycle hybrid special engine with a maximum thermal efficiency of 43.32%, and the comprehensive fuel saving rate can reach 35% to 40%. The first HEV model launched on the GHS2.0, the Geely Xingyue L, has a fuel consumption of 4.79L/100km under WLC conditions.
Source: Geely Public Information
Figure 21 Geely's new GHS2.0 Thor power hybrid system release information
Chery's new Kunpeng hybrid system adopts the first P2+P2.5 dual-motor architecture scheme. Kunpeng hybrid system is the first domestic brand to support the pure electric mode driven by the joint participation of two motors, and this system also has the most 11 combination gears in the global mass production hybrid system, and has three optional gears under the direct drive of the engine.
Source: Chery Public Information
Figure 22 Chery's new Kunpeng hybrid DHT system release information
The first HEV model of Dongfeng Mach-powered MHD hybrid system has been put on the domestic market. The MHD hybrid system adopts the DHT scheme in the form of dual-motor P1+P3, which can realize a variety of driving modes such as start-stop, EV driving, series connection, parallel connection, brake energy recovery, and parking power generation. It matches a hybrid engine with a maximum thermal efficiency of 41.07%, with a maximum power of 125 kW and a maximum torque of 260 Nm. Equipped with HD120 hybrid electric drive assembly, the drive motor power is 130kW, and the electric drive assembly transmission efficiency is greater than 97%. The first HEV model, the Yixuan MAX, has a fuel consumption of 4.3L/100km at NEDC.
Source: Dongfeng Public Information
Figure 23 Dongfeng's new Mach-powered MHD hybrid system release information
The DHT hybrid system with dual motor series parallel architecture has become the mainstream solution adopted by the new generation of technology of domestic brands. DHT cooperates with the hybrid high-efficiency engine and high-density and high-efficiency motor system, through the switching of multiple modes or multiple gears, the vehicle operation mode is distinguished by the salient characteristics, and the performance optimization of the global full mode is carried out to ensure the efficient operation of the engine, and the advantages between the modes are complementary to achieve the overall optimal efficiency of the system, thereby reducing emissions and fuel consumption, and improving the driving performance of the whole vehicle.
1. Consumer satisfaction evaluation and demand assessment
User satisfaction with plug-in hybrid vehicle products continues to climb and has remained on par with traditional fuel vehicles. According to the survey evaluation data and results of the "China Automotive Industry User Satisfaction (CACSI) Evaluation" carried out by the China Association for Quality. Plug-in hybrid vehicle products in 2018, due to the weak price competitiveness of the product, compared to pure electric models are not favored. However, after 2019, with the transition of new energy vehicles from policy-driven to market-driven, full market competition has promoted the technological upgrading and quality improvement of products. Plug-in hybrid models in terms of perceived quality, quality reliability and performance design satisfaction and other aspects of the fuel model has begun to gradually establish advantages, user satisfaction has increased rapidly, the first to surpass pure electric vehicles, and in 2020 for the first time exceeded the fuel vehicle rating, has been basically the same as the traditional fuel model user satisfaction level, the overall satisfaction of its domestic high-end products increased faster, the evaluation is relatively higher.
At present, consumers' self-perception of automotive product demand is clearer and more mature. At the level of consumer demand for hybrid vehicles, users are currently paying more attention to: cost of use, quality reliability, power performance, technological advancement, and ease of use.
The comprehensive cost of the whole life cycle of plug-in hybrid vehicles will gradually be equal to that of traditional fuel vehicles. At present, manufacturers generally provide a long warranty period for the three-electric system, so the difference in the cost of use of hybrid models compared with traditional fuel vehicles mainly comes from car purchase costs, fuel costs, insurance premiums and depreciation costs. Based on the current market environment, the cost difference between the two best-selling models with multiple power types is compared. The comprehensive cost of use of PHEV models is still partially higher than that of conventional fuel models in the early stage, but as the service life is extended, the cost gap will gradually narrow and close to flat. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the cost of car purchase will decrease, the level of retention rate will increase, and the comprehensive use cost of plug-in hybrid vehicles will continue to decrease.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles have overall better performance than traditional fuel vehicles, and their environmental adaptability is better than that of pure electric vehicles. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles have achieved a better balance between power performance and economic performance. For example, in the low-speed working conditions of the city, it mainly works in the form of electric drive, and has better smoothness and comfort in the face of frequently changing road conditions. Under the condition of heavy load acceleration, the engine and motor are output at the same time, which can achieve greater power of the power system and obtain higher power performance performance. Under high-speed cruising conditions, the engine can be used to drive efficiently and obtain better fuel economy performance. In addition, plug-in hybrid models can provide a better user experience in winter or low temperature environments, while longer endurance performance and a variety of fuel replenishment methods bring better convenience of use, meeting the practical needs of some domestic consumers.
Fig. 24 Hybrid mode of a plug-in hybrid vehicle under different driving conditions
Plug-in hybrid vehicles can better meet the diverse application scenarios and usage needs of China. At present, the consumer population of the domestic automobile market is complex and diverse, the demand for new energy vehicles is different, PHEV models can better meet the needs of consumers with a car of multiple uses, and can be combined with the travel and car habits of different groups of people, to provide a variety of battery power configuration model products, in order to accurately match the actual needs of users, reduce the use of energy waste, improve the utilization of electric energy. In this regard, at present, domestic brands are more comprehensive in consideration for Chinese consumers and provide more diversified product choices.
2. The hybrid market pattern is facing reshaping
The domestic market competition pattern ushered in a major change, and the intensification of hybrid market competition is only the starting point. At present, the concentration of the domestic hybrid automobile industry is very high, especially in the field of HEV models, and the advantages accumulated by Japanese brands in HEV models are extremely obvious. In the PHEV market, domestic brands such as BYD, Ideal Automobile and SAIC Roewe have also achieved better market performance. At the same time, with the change of wind direction in the domestic hybrid market, the number of plug-in hybrid model products on the market in 2021 increased by 19 models compared with last year, of which the proportion of new cars of foreign brands exceeded half, which significantly increased the launch of new cars in the PHEV market. It is expected that in the next few years, the market competition for domestic hybrid vehicle products will become more intense, and consumers will also get better product use and service experience from it.
Data source: Autohome, network public data, compiled by The National Automobile Strategy Institute
Figure 25 Number and proportion of hybrid vehicle models in the domestic market
The new sales pattern of plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles is gradually opening. In 2021, the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 601,000 units and 603,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively, maintaining a good growth momentum. With the low-carbon consumption culture deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. In 2021, the sales proportion of traditional fuel models of some automobile companies has dropped sharply by nearly 20% to 30%, and new energy models have occupied the main share of their model product structure, of which plug-in hybrid models account for nearly half. In addition, in the past, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles could only be concentrated in cities with limited licenses and limited purchases, which are gradually being broken. The opening of the new sales area also provides another new channel for plug-in hybrid vehicles that are gradually retreating from the policy dividend.
According to the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" predicts that in the next decade, the overall goal of the development of the mainland automobile industry is to advance the national carbon emission reduction commitment and achieve carbon peaking in advance around 2028, and the hybrid system will play an irreplaceable and important role in achieving the above goals, when the application of the hybrid system will become an important technical solution in the domestic market, and the traditional fuel passenger car will basically withdraw from the consumer market.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles is one of the important routes of new energy vehicles, the current domestic market plug-in hybrid vehicle products user satisfaction has reached the highest level in history, technology development and product application has been relatively mature, by the market fully affirmed, and maintain a variety of power architecture to promote its sustainable development, the future still has great potential for development. However, the market supply and demand pattern is still in the reshaping stage, the domestic brand upward channel is opened, the hybrid technology upgrade products are ready, and the dual competition of technology and market in the future will become more and more intense.
Combined with the low-carbon transformation of automobiles and the development needs of plug-in hybrid vehicles, the following suggestions are proposed:
1. At the policy level, it is recommended to continue to appropriately increase the policy guidance for energy-saving and new energy vehicles based on the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", and promote the application of advanced hybrid technologies in energy-saving and new energy vehicles.
2. At the industry level, it is recommended to strengthen upstream and downstream cooperation in the industrial chain, organize the establishment of a common sharing mechanism in the industry, and form a standardized series of products for key components of the hybrid system, such as hybrid special engines and special gearbox devices, to promote the continuous decline in costs and avoid the waste of research and development resources. Promote the formation of an independent and complete industrial chain system in the field of domestic hybrid systems.
3. At the enterprise level, it is recommended to continue to strengthen the research and development of core technologies and continuously improve the competitiveness of technologies and products. At the same time, we will improve the after-sales service system, appropriately continue the service rights and interests of the first car owner, improve the product retention rate, reduce the comprehensive cost of user use, and improve the circulation of used cars of new energy vehicles.