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Jiwei Network news, in mid-January, BYD Chongqing dealers said in an industry survey that BYD has taken measures to share part of the cost of dealers to bear the pressure of rising costs. On January 22, after the end of the survey, BYD officially announced that it would raise the price of its dynasty network and ocean network related new energy models ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan.
In fact, BYD is a mainstream new energy vehicle brand with a relatively lagging price increase, before that, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Ideal, E-An, Zero Run, Volkswagen ID and other mainstream new energy vehicle companies have raised prices on some of their models, and some car companies said in the price increase letter that the decline in new energy car purchase subsidies is the main factor in price increases.
In this regard, Chen Lei, an analyst in the lithium battery industry, said that the soaring price of the upstream lithium battery industry chain is the main reason for the increase in the cost of car manufacturing in the main engine factory, which in turn raises the price of the car.
The national subsidy slope has no direct impact on the price increase of new energy vehicles
In 2021-2022, the replacement of the old and new, a number of new energy vehicle brands have raised the price of some of their models, of which Tesla is the most frequent price adjustment, since August 2021, has been raised 5 times the price, December 31, again officially announced the Model Y rear-wheel drive version of the model increased by 21,000 yuan, the price of the model also came to more than 300,000.
Among other car companies, Nezha rose by 2000-5000 yuan; the price of all models under Xiaopeng rose by 4300-5900 yuan; the price of some models of Aian increased by 4000 yuan; the zero-run low-end models also rose by 8000 yuan year-on-year; and the volkswagen ID family all models rose by 5400 yuan...
Some car companies associate the price increase with the new energy car purchase subsidy policy when the price increases, so some market voices believe that the subsidy decline leads to the price increase of new cars.
According to the latest policy requirements of the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", from 2022, the subsidy for new energy car purchases will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and will no longer be subsidized by 2023.
In this regard, "the price increase of new energy vehicles is not directly related to subsidies, and it is not the main reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles in this round." Chen Lei analysis said: "The state's new energy car purchase subsidies to car companies are postponed, and the subsidies in 2016 and 2017 will only be issued in the near future, if car companies increase prices in order to subsidize, they have already increased prices, because if the company does not have profits, there is not enough cash flow support, and it is impossible to wait for subsidies for 5 or 6 years." Cash flow is very important for car companies. ”
The subsidy distribution mentioned by Chen Lei is the "Notice on Issuing the 2022 Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Subsidy Fund Budget in Advance" issued by the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance at the end of 2021, according to which the subsidy fund for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be issued to liquidate a total of 20.169 billion yuan from 2016 to 2019, and 18.31 billion yuan for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2019-2020, for a total of 38.479 billion yuan.
BYD, BAIC, Dongfeng Motor, Tesla, Chery, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, SAIC, GAC and other car companies have all received more than 1 billion yuan in subsidies, of which BYD received 3.98 billion yuan in subsidies.
In order to encourage the development of the new energy automobile industry, in recent years, the state has given very large support from the aspects of policies and subsidies, among which, at the beginning of the implementation of the new energy car purchase subsidy policy, the amount of national subsidy + land subsidy for some models is close to 100,000 yuan / vehicle. With the decline of subsidies year by year, before the price increase, the price of this part of the model has not increased accordingly, and it is basically flat or even in the trend of price reduction.
Before the current round of car price increases, new energy vehicle companies, including Tesla, the product price continued to decline, and even had the tendency to fight a price war, which further corroborated Chen Lei's view that subsidies were not the main reason for this round of car price increases. For example, the model 3, the price in August 2019 was 363,900 yuan / car, the price of the car fell to 355,800 yuan / car after localization in October of that year, and then several price cuts, and by October 2020, the price of the car has dropped to 249,900 yuan / car. However, after the current price increase, the current price range of Model 3 has increased to 265,700 yuan - 339,900 yuan / vehicle.
In the process of actual operation, in order to promote the impulse, some car companies did not strictly increase the price according to the plan, but continued to take "subsidy" measures for the price increase, and the subsidy cost was borne by the car company. For example, the Volkswagen ID family, which delivered 70,625 cars in 2021 and did not achieve the annual sales target, attached a notice when it increased prices: "Pay the deposit before December 31, 2021, and those who complete the purchase and delivery of the car before February 28, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies." ”
The crazy price increase of lithium materials has put car companies under continuous pressure
The author noted that some car companies revealed the cost pressure caused by the price increase of upstream raw materials when the price increase, such as BYD, which clearly stated in the price increase letter that due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline of new energy car purchase subsidies, it decided to raise the price of its dynasty network and ocean network related new energy models ranging from 1000-7000 yuan.
However, the effective date of the price increase letter is February 1, and BYD said that customers who have signed up advance deposits are not affected by the new round of price adjustments.
In fact, before the price increase letter came out, BYD Chongqing dealers said in an industry survey in mid-January that with the increase in production capacity, BYD's manufacturing costs and research and development costs are constantly decreasing; in addition, "BYD's financial penetration rate is very strong, which can be improved from other segments (referring to the transfer of cost pressure through other means)." At the same time, the dealer said that in the case of peer price increases, BYD maintained the original price, which also reflected the brand advantage.
It is understood that the previous subsidy was borne by BYD itself, but as the dealer revealed above, "after the national subsidy of 30%, BYD requires dealers to bear 30% of the subsidy cost, that is, a car to bear the cost of 1000-2000 yuan, a year, the net profit of a single store may lose 5 million yuan - 6 million yuan." ”
In this regard, Chen Lei said, "The reason for the general price increase of new energy vehicles is that the price of lithium battery materials rose sharply last year, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of lithium batteries, which has exceeded the affordability of car companies and has to raise the price of cars." ”
At the beginning of this month, the author found that the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode material in December 2019 was about 41,000 yuan / ton, and by December 17, 2021, it had increased to 92,000 yuan / ton; the price of lithium carbonate was only 60,000 yuan / ton in early 2020, but it had risen to 200,000 yuan per ton in November 2021; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate also rose from about 10 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 565,000 yuan / ton in mid-December.
Chen Lei said, "The price of lithium battery materials is still rising rapidly, such as lithium carbonate, which has risen to 280,000 yuan / ton at the end of December last year, and rose to 350,000 yuan / ton just after New Year's Day, and by the end of January, the price of lithium carbonate rose again to nearly 400,000 yuan / ton." The rapid development of new energy vehicles, coupled with the hoarding of goods by downstream manufacturers at the end of the year, has led to a serious shortage of upstream raw materials, and now the price of lithium battery materials must be calculated on a daily basis. ”
Image source: Kosaisha
Benefiting from the development of the downstream new energy vehicle boom, in 2021, a number of lithium battery industry chain enterprises ushered in the best performance in history, and it is predicted that they will continue to maintain high prosperity development in the future. In terms of power batteries, CATL expects net profit to exceed 14 billion yuan, a year-on-year pre-increase of more than 150.75%; Penghui Energy's net profit is more than 313.51% year-on-year; and the net profit of Ewell Lithium Energy is expected to increase by more than 65% year-on-year. Upstream raw material suppliers also benefited from significant growth in performance, such as Tianqi Lithium, which changed from a loss of 1.8 billion yuan to a profit of more than 1.8 billion yuan; the net profit of Dangsheng Technology increased by more than 159.81% year-on-year; the net profit of Huazheng New Material increased by more than 88% year-on-year...
However, for downstream OEMs, the cost pressure brought about by the price increase of upstream raw materials is increasing.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, a meeting minutes disclosed by Hezhong Investment Research Institute showed that a new domestic head car-making force said that due to the recent sharp price of original power battery supply N company products, it is planned to gradually replace the ternary lithium battery supplier supplied by Z company; and will continue to use iron lithium products, mainly matching low-end models, reducing the pressure brought about by the rise in costs.
In addition, the author's analysis found that the price increase of this round of cars is basically the same as the increase in the cost of batteries in a single car. The author understands that a new car-making force currently uses the battery cost of N Company to use A single car is about 4,000 yuan / car higher than that of Z Company. In the case that subsidies are not in place, enterprises can indeed transfer cost pressure by raising prices.
The new car-making forces also believe that the sharp rise in the price of power batteries will promote the price of all new energy vehicles, and at present, in order to ease the resistance of the market, a gradual price increase strategy is adopted; there are still a few car companies that have not raised prices, and the new car-making forces said: "These car companies will also raise prices in the near future, after all, the cost is rising." ”
For the future price trend, Chen Lei said, "It is difficult to judge at present, and the situation that (power batteries) is in short supply will continue to exist for a long time." However, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu previously told Aijiwei that the imbalance between supply and demand has allowed a large amount of capital to pour into the lithium battery industry chain, and with the help of capital, the future production capacity and output will be greatly improved, and the price increase caused by the imbalance between supply and demand will gradually return to normal levels.
(Proofreader/James)