In the first week of the Year of the Tiger, the A-share market diverged. Under the weighted stocks such as infrastructure, finance and cycle, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.02%; however, the ChiNext index, affected by the continuous decline in new energy and pharmaceutical biology, is still pulling back, down 5.59%, and only rose slightly on Wednesday for 5 trading days. It is worth mentioning that the index has fallen more than 20% since its December 2021 high, entering a technical bear market.
This weekend, there are still major events, which affect the opening of A shares? What are the latest judgments of brokerage analysts? Let's pay attention to it together and hope that A-shares will fall less next week.
The top ten events affecting A shares over the weekend
1, the central bank heavy report! Guide financial institutions to expand credit to better meet reasonable housing needs And release these signals
On February 11, the People's Bank of China released the fourth quarter of 2021 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The "Report" shows that in the next stage, the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, increase the intensity of cross-cycle adjustment, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient force, precise force, and forward force, not only do not engage in "flood irrigation", but also meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy. In accordance with the usual practice, the Report analyzes the current economic and financial situation at home and abroad, and makes arrangements for monetary policy arrangements in the next stage. For the next stage of monetary policy, the "Report" said that on the one hand, it is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth of monetary credit. On the other hand, we should continue to give full play to the traction and driving role of structural monetary policy tools. In addition, for the future real estate financial policy, the report said that it will firmly adhere to the positioning that the house is used to live, not to speculate, adhere to the real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, adhere to the stability of land prices, stable house prices, stable expectations, the implementation of a prudent management system for real estate finance, increase the financial support for housing rental, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market.
2. The State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting Agricultural and Rural Modernization"
The work of the three rural areas is the most important task in comprehensively building a modern socialist country. In order to implement the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035, adhere to the priority development of agriculture and rural areas, comprehensively promote rural revitalization, and accelerate agricultural and rural modernization, this plan is prepared. By 2025, the comprehensive production capacity of grain will be steadily improved, and the output will remain above 1.3 trillion kilograms, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of rations. Pig production capacity has been consolidated and improved, cotton, oilseeds, sugar and aquatic products have developed steadily, and other important agricultural products have maintained a reasonable level of self-sufficiency. The agricultural production structure and regional layout have been significantly optimized, the conditions for material and technical equipment have been continuously improved, the level of scale, intensification, standardization and digitization has been further improved, and the supply capacity of green and high-quality agricultural products has been significantly enhanced. The industrial chain supply chain is optimized and upgraded, and the modern rural industrial system is basically formed.
3. Ningde Times Statement: The company's sanctions by the United States are malicious rumors and have been officially reported to the public security organs
CATL issued a statement today saying that a series of malicious rumors about the recent network platform about the NINGDE era being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and negotiating with Tesla have caused market misunderstandings and distortions and affected the reputation of enterprises. Rumors are unfounded and bad in nature. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, on February 12, 2022, our company has officially reported the case to the public security organs, and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers in accordance with the law. Cataltime shares have continued to fall recently, falling more than 17% this week.
4. Biden warns Putin that Russia will pay a heavy price for invading Ukraine
In an hour-long conference call on Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin that if Russia invades Ukraine, Western countries will respond decisively and quickly, causing widespread pain to Russia and weakening its position in the world. "President Biden has made it clear that if Russia invades Ukraine further, the United States will respond decisively with our allies and partners to quickly make Russia pay a heavy price," the White House said in a statement released after the two presidents spoke.
The White House said Biden told Putin that the United States was ready for diplomacy and "other circumstances." Senior Biden administration officials noted that the two had direct conversations about all the issues that the United States has publicly raised. The official said it was unclear whether Putin was willing to take the diplomatic route.
5. China Steel Association: Strengthen the supervision of the iron ore market according to law and firmly maintain the fair order of the market
According to the monitoring of the China Iron and Steel Association, some mining-related enterprises have recently violated business ethics by publishing and speculating on false information, which has seriously interfered with the fair order of the market and harmed the legitimate interests of market entities. The steel association condemned it. Any behavior and participants that ignore the laws of the market and illegally interfere with the normal operation of the market should be corrected and should pay a price for it. A stable and orderly market is conducive to the long-term interests of all parties in the industrial chain and needs to be jointly maintained by all parties. Mining enterprises should operate in good faith and perform contracts on time; relevant trading enterprises should operate in accordance with the law and eliminate malicious speculation and hoarding; steel production enterprises should strengthen self-discipline, take the balance between supply and demand as the principle, and grasp the procurement rhythm. The China Iron and Steel Association will continue to cooperate with relevant government departments to do a good job in market monitoring, further strengthen analysis and research, and promote the balanced development of the industrial chain and the smooth operation of the iron ore market.
6, the State Council: to stabilize the pork production capacity at about 55 million tons to prevent production ups and downs
The State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote agricultural and rural modernization after the market on Friday. It is mentioned that it is necessary to promote standardized large-scale breeding, stabilize the pork production capacity at about 55 million tons, and prevent large fluctuations in production; implement the five-year action plan for the development of cattle and sheep, vigorously develop grass-fed animal husbandry; strengthen the construction of milk source bases, and optimize the structure of dairy products.
7. Yu Liang judged that the "black iron era" of the property market is coming: Vanke will break the boat and fight a war
A copy titled "Yu Liang's Concluding Remarks at Vanke's 2022 Annual Meeting" flowed out on the night of February 11. Yu Liang mentioned that 2022 is a year in which the group broke through the ship and fought a war, and it is also the beginning of a new era. The "backwater war" is either dead or alive, and there is no intermediate state. Yu Liang said that in the face of the industry to the black iron era, this year's income will definitely be greatly reduced, Vanke's organization will also establish a new anchor point, welfare, subsidies, etc. must be adapted to the black iron era.
8. CSRC: Maintain the total amount of cross-border funds for the existing interconnected depositary receipt business unchanged
On February 11, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Provisions on the Supervision of the Interconnection and Interoperability Depositary Receipts Business of Domestic and Foreign Stock Exchanges, which expanded the scope of participation in the interconnection depositary receipt business of domestic and foreign stock exchanges, focusing on expanding the scope of application, increasing CDR financing arrangements, and optimizing continuous supervision. The CSRC said that the total amount of cross-border funds to maintain the existing interconnected depositary receipt business remains unchanged. On the basis of comprehensively considering factors such as the degree of development of overseas markets, investor protection and supervision level, it has expanded to major European markets such as Switzerland and Germany.
9. Gree Electric Appliances: Plans to implement the 2021 interim dividend dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares
Gree Electric Appliance announced that the company's board of directors has formulated and announced the "Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2022-2024)" on January 24. Taking into account the current operating conditions, development planning, capital status and the consistency of the cash dividend policy, the company intends to implement the 2021 interim dividend: to all shareholders for every 10 shares of cash dividends of 10 yuan (including tax), no bonus shares, not to increase the share capital with provident fund, a total of about 5.537 billion yuan of cash dividends.
10. After raising 22.4 billion yuan, he turned around and bought 8 billion fixed deposits
Shareholders: It turns out that the "first brother" of the brokerage company manages money in this way
On the evening of February 11, CITIC Securities announced that it had signed a deposit business with Huaxia Bank and purchased three fixed-term deposits totaling 8 billion yuan. CITIC Securities has chosen the type of capital protected income, with an estimated annualized yield/deposit rate of 2.28%, and a total expected return of RMB36.6067 million.
Some investors laughed and said: "CITIC Securities can lie and earn 36.6067 million." Some investors also commented: "Are you not optimistic about the stock market and deposit money in the bank on a regular basis?" ”
The latest research and judgment of the top ten securities companies
1. CITIC Securities: The four major focus issues that the current market is concerned about
We proposed in the 2022 annual strategy report "The Return of Blue Chips" that blue chips are the main line of style throughout the year, and the large-cap blue chip market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched after the Spring Festival, and this issue focuses on the analysis of the four major issues that the market is currently concerned about and gives judgments.
Focus 1, how sustainable is the main line of steady growth? We believe that after the stable growth policy infrastructure is first, the real estate is later, and after a number of policies produce synergy, the domestic GDP will recover to a potential growth level of about 5.5% in the third quarter of the year, which will support the quarterly level of the main line of stable growth.
Focus two, when will the growth track usher in a systematic repair? We believe that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value, and will continue for at least one quarter; the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in a systematic repair after the three major conditions are complete.
Focus three, how will the tightening of global currencies affect A shares? We believe that under the phased dislocation of Sino-US monetary policies in the first half of the year, the impact of the tightening of peripheral currencies on A-shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
Focus 4, how to grasp market opportunities at the current point in time? We suggest that we adhere to the blue-chip style throughout the year, and at present, we will closely follow the value blue-chip main line catalyzed by the stable growth policy and continue to firmly focus on the "two lows" active layout.
2. Monarch strategy: Wait for the spring of March
？ General trend research: waiting for the spring of March. This week, the market shocked upwards, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% to return to 3450 points. We believe that in the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the process of digesting negative factors, but there is no need to be pessimistic, and the market will gradually warm up in March with the upward revision of positive factors. 1) The negative impact of overseas liquidity still needs to be digested. In January, the US CPI climbed to a 40-year high of 7.5% year-on-year, and the expectation of a 50BP rate hike in March was further strengthened, and the US Treasury interest rate stood at the 2% mark. In the short term, US inflation is still expected to rise in February, and the domestic market still needs to continue to digest the negative impact of the rapid fluctuations in overseas interest rate hikes. However, looking further ahead, with the weakening of US economic data and the peaking of inflation, interest rate hikes are expected to peak in the first quarter, while the March FOMC meeting will also reduce the uncertainty of liquidity expectations in stages, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations in March will accelerate and weaken. 2) Keep an eye on the two anchors of risk appetite, and the positives will gradually improve. At present, under the stable growth of infrastructure construction or local debt, as well as the recovery of real estate, as the core of the future wide credit slope, will become the two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the January social finance data, the total amount has exceeded expectations and there are positive signals, and wide credit is on the way. Looking ahead, with the approaching of the two sessions of the National People's Congress in March, the steady growth policy will accelerate and exert force, and infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually revised. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weakness of the market, and the market will gradually warm up in March with the upward revision of positive factors, and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year. Keep an eye on the two anchors of risk appetite. The current market risk appetite index has declined rapidly, indicating that the bottom of the market is gradually clear. So is the market's risk appetite expected to improve in the next stage, and what is the time and space for the rise? We believe that the core linkage point of current risk appetite will be the rhythm of wide credit in the future, and local debt and real estate, as the leading factors of wide credit, will become an important observation anchor for risk appetite. Looking back, under the demand for stable growth, the anchor of risk appetite is fixed, but the slope still needs to be continuously observed, which also determines the space for the market to recover. 1) The direction of the anchor repair of risk appetite is determined. On the one hand, under the strong demand for stable growth, infrastructure construction will be an important starting point. On the other hand, the recent introduction of the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing has ensured the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds for commercial housing and will become a catalyst for the expected improvement of real estate. 2) However, under the tone of curbing new local hidden debt, the credit expansion of local governments is limited, and the upward revision slope still needs to be continuously observed. Judging from the disclosed work plans of the local government supervision bureaus of the Ministry of Finance for 2022, the monitoring, prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks are still the core. Structural configuration: along with the undervaluation and value style. At present, two roads have reappeared in front of investors, on the one hand, the price-performance ratio of track-type companies has gradually increased after continuous adjustment, and on the other hand, the allocation value of low-value directions such as consumption and infrastructure has risen under the heating of stable growth expectations. Around the DDM point of view, the current denominator liquidity expectation medium-term inflection point has appeared, which makes the valuation side do not have a basis for a comprehensive rise, and it is difficult for us to earn the excess return brought by the denominator. The excess return of the market in the next stage will be the core of the marginal change at the molecular end, and at this moment, we should focus on the direction of the damage to the previous profit and the motivation for valuation repair. The positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair, with particular emphasis on the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the low-value sector with the consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages, and the market will still flow to the low place in the future, accelerating the switch to the low valuation style. In addition, in the value growth dimension, under the current market low risk appetite and high uncertainty in the economic environment, value will still be dominant, and the opportunities for growth, especially track-type companies, still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite.
3. CICC | A shares: policy intensification, the main line of "steady growth"
We believe that the current adjustment of growth stocks may have been larger, but the adjustment of investors' risk appetite in the context of the lack of short-term positive catalysts may take time, China's steady growth is still exerting efforts, and market concerns may continue to be in the "stable growth" related areas; in addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global currency tightening, restricting the performance of the global high valuation growth sector. We judge that when China's growth expectations gradually stabilize, the overseas market's response to currency tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually have the conditions to return to the growth style, the initial forecast time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up still needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress.
On the whole, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market, historically in the context of relatively low markets, low expectations of credit and social financing increases, from two to three months of cycle on the market impact is more positive, if these indicators have a certain degree of sustainability will be more obvious, forward-looking indicators to improve is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, we believe that "steady growth" is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for a sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to read the bottom.
Industry configuration advice: steady growth" style may continue, manufacturing growth waiting for a turnaround
1) Areas with potential support for marginal changes in policies, including infrastructure, real estate stability demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishing, etc.), brokerage finance, etc.;
2) In 2021, the middle and lower reaches of the consumption that have been adjusted, the valuation is not high, and the medium- and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industry home, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc.;
3) Under the background of the positive progress of the epidemic, aviation airports, catering and tourism, offline entertainment and other sectors may receive phased attention;
4) The manufacturing growth sector, which rose sharply last year, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has been adjusted, but it may not be time to fully intervene.
4. Tianfeng strategy: before and after the 5 times of social financing, how does the index and style perform?
Statistics in the past 10 years, in the relative bottom position of credit, there has been a single month pulse of credit (social finance/credit), and analyze the performance of the market in a period of time around the date of financial data release (generally 10-15 days of the following month).
According to the market performance before and after the five obvious monthly credit pulses in June 2012, June 14, January 2016, January 19, and March 20, we can get the following rules:
(1) In the 30 trading days before the credit pulse, the market fell as a whole, the steady growth direction performed better, and the low valuation was opposed to the decline.
The logic behind it is that the credit cycle ultimately affects the valuation direction of A-shares by affecting the remaining liquidity and profit expectations (see Figure 1), then after a large increase in credit, there will generally be an oversold rebound, but whether it can form a trend must also be considered in combination with profitability and valuation position. For details, please refer to our previous in-depth report" "Credit-Profitability Two-Dimensional Framework: Review and Outlook".
(2) 60 trading days after the credit pulse, the market as a whole rose, and the general small and medium-sized cap growth was dominant or the style was relatively balanced.
(3) The specific details of short-term style changes: first financial/cyclical/value, and then grow. For a period of time after the data release date, the market tends to be financial, cyclical, and value-dominant (in most cases, it is a continuation of the previous style trend); the inflection point occurs about 10 trading days after the data release date, after which the growth style will rebound (12 years, 14 years, 16 years) and even trend dominance (19 years, 20 years).
(4) More medium- and long-term style research: Looking at the style trend of the next six months to more than one year, it mainly depends on whether there are more booming emerging industries, that is, the relative performance trend of growth and value. Among them, only 16 years of shed reform monetization and supply-side reform to promote the performance of the blue-chip sector continued to dominate, and finally made the medium- and long-term market style appear low-value blue-chip dominance.
5. Haitong Strategy: The Micro Foundation and Structural Opportunities of The Shock City
Core conclusion: (1) In the past 21 years, the rise and fall of the industry with large weights in the CSI 300 has been out of sync, and this is the other, so the index is volatile. (2) Under the background of the era of equity investment, the allocation of funds into the market, it is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will balance in 22 years, supporting the shock market. (3) The steady growth spring market will not be absent, structurally value first and then growth, such as undervalued financial real estate, as well as new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure.
We believe that there is still a spring market in the volatile market, for the following reasons:
First, the policy effect of steady growth has gradually emerged. The latest social financing data show that the increase in social financing in January reached 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, of which the loans issued to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, which is the high point of single-month statistics, which verifies that the policy is landing. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the MLF, SLF and LPR interest rates in the early stage, and compared with the third quarter of the central bank's monetary policy report in the fourth quarter of 21, it added positive expressions such as "to give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and pay attention to sufficient force, precise force, and forward force". In terms of real estate policy, on February 8, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on The Management of Loans Related to Affordable Rental Housing Not Included in the Concentration of Real Estate Loans", which clarifies that loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration, and encourages financial institutions to increase support for the development of affordable rental housing; over the past 22 years, Hefei, Kunming, Zhuhai and other cities have introduced different subsidy policies for housing purchases to inject fresh vitality into the property market.
Second, after reviewing history, it is found that the spring market of A-shares has never been absent in the past 20 years, and the reason behind this is that the time window for major meetings is often held at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, while the fundamental data of A-shares from November to March is less disclosed, and the interest rate of funds at the beginning of the year usually falls, and the risk appetite of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher. The average maximum gains of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index during the spring market were 24% and 22% respectively (see Table 3 for details). In 10, 11 and 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a similar January decline to the current market, but the index will recover in the first quarter after these three declines.
In addition, the recent acceleration of Russian-Ukrainian relations has caused some disturbance to the sentiment of the capital market, the VIX panic index soared to a high of 31 on Friday, and the price of gold as a safe-haven asset also rose rapidly, with COMEX gold rising 1.24% on Friday, the main US stock index fell significantly on Friday, the NASDAQ fell 2.8%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. How do we respond to large classes of assets during regional conflicts? - 20220125 reviewed the performance of global large-scale assets during regional conflicts in history, and it can be found that even if international conflict events occur, the impact on large-scale assets in the long run is actually relatively limited, so we do not think there is any need to worry too much.
6. Investment strategy: the growth rate of new social financing has turned positive and A-share has turned around
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate differential and the deterioration of the chip structure of A shares themselves have led to the adjustment of A shares. In January, the total amount of new social financing in China exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of new social financing has turned positive. In history, the new social financing has seen a large bottom in the month or 1 quarter after the growth rate has turned positive, and the difference in time lag is mainly due to the RMB exchange rate. In the divergence stage of the internal and external tightening of The Monetary Policy between China and the United States, the RMB exchange rate has depreciation pressure, until the Federal Reserve releases a dovish signal, the Sino-US interest rate differential stabilizes and returns to expand, A shares will bottom out and return to the upside. The current us inflation has been continuously exceeded expectations, resulting in a 50bp rate hike in March, the US Treasury yield has risen rapidly, the Us-China spread has narrowed to 80bp, and the fear of RMB depreciation and capital outflow has suppressed the risk appetite of A-shares. We believe that after the Fed raises interest rates in March, the market will further observe whether the Fed will have a more hawkish move, if there is a marginal easing, US Treasury yields are down, the US interest rate differential is widening again, and A shares may return to the upward cycle. Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain the view that A shares have risen steadily and backward, and the pattern is similar to "√", and we can focus on "low valuation +" and depression strategies throughout the year. In addition to the valuation repair market in traditional areas, the direction of stable growth should also focus on the layout of low-valued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure, digital infrastructure).
7. Southwest Strategy: Under the financing of Tianliang Society, the three main lines of A-share dilemma reversal
- On February 10, Chinese Min min bank released financial statistics and social financing data, and the credit and social finance data for January hit a record high and were significantly higher than wind's consensus expectations. New RMB loans in January reached 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, and new social financing in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year. By comparison, Wind consensus estimates are only $3.77 trillion and $5.44 trillion. It can be said that the currently released data is far beyond market expectations. This shows the determination and confidence of the current decision-making level to grow steadily.
- Of course, it should be noted that although the liquidity easing is to some extent more than expected, the market will still maintain a structural market. The main reason lies in three aspects: First, although the absolute value of social financing is a historical amount, the year-on-year growth rate is not high. Second, the liquidity data released by the central bank is in January, and this release of water has been partially reflected in the rise of the stable growth sector. Therefore, after the data of credit expansion came out, the market reaction was not strong. For the growth sector, on the one hand, the valuation is indeed relatively full, on the other hand, the concern about the US science and technology war has suppressed the valuation space, the funds are disgusted with uncertainty, the confidence is insufficient, and it is not enough to solve market doubts by releasing water. Third, judging from the current inflation situation in the United States and the posture of the Federal Reserve, China is not allowed to continue to release water. The United States is likely to start a rate hike in March, and will continue to raise interest rates after that, to what extent it depends on the specific inflation situation, which compresses the space for China to release water.
- Investment strategy: The current A-share is indeed in a "dilemma", and "under the water" also needs to lower expectations. But does this mean that there are no opportunities for A shares? We don't think so. Currently, there are at least three areas with opportunities to attack the A-share Jedi. First, it is the "dilemma reversal" of the plate damaged by the epidemic. It mainly includes business and tourism and other fields. Second, the dilemma of the "stable growth" related sectors has reversed. Mainly construction, building materials, raw materials, real estate and other sectors. These sectors win in low valuations, low expectations from institutions, and low allocations. However, with the introduction of the policy of steady growth, the market's expectations for it have gradually increased. Third, it is a sector with steady performance growth and relatively low valuation in the performance forecast. In contrast, this direction is more dispersed, with more emphasis on bottom-up stock selection.
8, Cinda strategy: why the stock market is more stable and weaker
The credit and social financing data released last week exceeded the market's consensus expectations, which is another strong evidence that the steady growth policy has been continuously promoted since last year's Central Economic Work Conference. But why is the stock market getting weaker and steadier? We believe that due to the early stage of steady growth, the current profit of enterprises is generally not very good, so valuation is particularly important. Compared with the steady growth in history, this time the PB of all A (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) is higher, the current PB is 2.7 times, at the end of 2008, in mid-2014, Q4 of 2018, the overall A-share fell below 2 times PB, the overall valuation did not reach the extreme value, and it is difficult for the stock market to get rid of the impact of profitability. Strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half of the year similar to 2018 and the second half of 2019. The rebound after the Spring Festival is a tactical rebound, the main catalyst is "stable growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound", optimistic scenario, the rebound can continue until the two sessions.
(1) The strategic impact of this steady growth is not as good as in Q1 2019, because the valuation positions are different. The credit and social financing data released last week exceeded the market's consensus expectations, which is another strong evidence that the steady growth policy has been continuously promoted since last year's Central Economic Work Conference. But the index has been declining since last year's Central Economic Work Conference. In our view, there are two main reasons. First, compared with the steady growth in history, this time the PB of all A (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) is higher, and the current PB is 2.7 times. At the end of 2008, the middle of 2014, and the Q4 of 2018, the overall A-share fell below 2 times PB, and after steady growth, the index has risen well. And interestingly, the steady growth in 2008 and the steady growth in 2014 have a completely different impact on the economy, after 4 trillion yuan in 2008, the economy stabilized in 1 quarter and began to recover rapidly, but after the steady growth in 2014, the macro economy continued to decline for more than 1 year, until the first half of 2016.
Second, in the early stage of steady growth, the current profit of enterprises is generally not very good. The reason why steady growth will appear, the reason behind the very important reason is that the economy has fallen to the middle stage, the biggest feature at this time is that the economic decline gradually began to affect the profits of industrial enterprises. At this time, investors in the secondary market often have difficulty finding industries that can exceed expectations.
(2) Interest rates have fallen ≠ stock market funds have increased. Another impact of steady growth on the market is that with the advancement of monetary easing, the funding interest rate of the real economy will fall, which may lead to an increase in stock market funds. However, we believe that the relationship between the two is unstable. In the downward cycle of interest rates in 2008, resident funds were constantly decreasing, and resident funds rebounded until 2009, when interest rates rebounded. In the downward cycle of interest rates from Q4 2011 to Q2 2012, resident funds are constantly leaving the market. In the downward cycle of interest rates in Q2 from 2014 to 2016, the first half (2014-2015Q2) of resident funds were inflows, and the second half (2015Q3-2016) was outflows. The downward cycle of interest rates in Q2 from 2018 to 2020, the outflow of resident funds in the first half (2018) and the inflow of resident funds in the second half (2019).
Because what affects residents' funds, in addition to interest rates, there are also money-making effects and regulatory policies. In the short term, the impact of the money-making effect is more important. If the market valuation is extremely low (such as in 2014), then even if the profit is poor, the money-making effect of the stock market will not decline, and once the interest rate falls, the incremental capital of the stock market will be a lot. However, if the market valuation is not low, and the profitability does not support the improvement of the money-making effect, then the impact of the decline in interest rates on residents' funds is often not significant, and the positive impact of the decline in interest rates on the stock market may take a long time to appear.
(3) Short-term strategy: The February rally is still on the way. Looking ahead, strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half of 2018 and the second half of 2019. The rebound that occurred after the Spring Festival was a tactical rebound, and the main catalyst was "stable growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound". While the index opened higher and lower after last week's credit exceeded expectations, we believe the rally is not over. On the one hand, before the two sessions, there will be more policies to stabilize growth. On the other hand, February is a performance window period, which will last until mid-March.
9, BOC strategy: growth is still in the dark stage before dawn
1) The market enters a risk-off mode, attaches importance to low valuation, and ignores high growth. The current trend of the A-share market is in line with the U-shaped judgment in our 22-year strategy, and overseas stagflation and contraction are the main source of volatility. The recent growth outperform value is mainly due to the increase in tightening expectations brought about by the us inflation exceeding expectations, the US Treasury yield broke the "2", and the market was forced into a safe-haven defense mode, paying more attention to the margin of safety of low valuations, and choosing to ignore the high growth of performance. The "Ning combination" represents the static relatively high valuation growth under pressure; relatively, the financial, aviation and other sectors are doing well.
2) Value and switch with passive. The high credit increase in January has played a certain role in supporting the valuation of A-shares, and from the historical summary, the excess return of the counter-cyclical value sector is relatively clear; but the relative strength of the value does not come from the relative advantage of performance, but more from policy arbitrage and the market's squeeze on valuation. Considering that the gains in the undervalued sector since December last year have been repaired to near the historical average of the rebound amplitude, the risk-return of doing a style switch at the current point in time is equal. In other words, the advantage of value is set off by the growth disadvantage, and the market switch is to passively respond to the increase of the revenue rift, rather than optimistic about the sector from the performance trend.
3) Bulk rush and growing pains. The growth troubles come from the peak of large prices, and inflation expectations are difficult to fall. Whether it is industrial products or energy, the current bulk price strength comes more from the short-term supply level of contraction, and the form of long-term discount on prices is more obvious. Large prices, which are supported by supply factors alone, are difficult to sustain. Looking ahead, the recent global supply chain has shown signs of improvement, with the cyclical decline in the demand side, the balance between supply and demand and even reversal is only a matter of time. Once the bulk top is confirmed, the inflation expectations inflection point, and the squeeze on growth valuations by tightening will also come to an end. Historically, any macro-level fluctuation has been an effective buying point for the pressure on the high-growth sector.
4) Overall, market anxiety spreads and investors are under increasing pressure to stick to growth. The peripheral factors that squeeze growth valuations have not yet been lifted, the rift between value and growth gains will increase in the short term, and growth is still in the dark stage before dawn. Investors should consider the attributes and constraints of funds to make rational judgments. For investors who focus on the long term and have less constraints, under the premise that the performance trend is unchanged, the left layout of growth technology is becoming more prominent; for investors who pursue relative returns, reducing positions and switching are all expedient measures, and once the follow-up sentiment improves, technology breakthrough is still one of the best choices.
10. Guangdong opening strategy: Spring agitation is still promising, continue to grasp the main line of steady growth
1) From the perspective of macro input variables, there is no doubt that the current stage is in the easing stage of liquidity, the RRR cut and interest rate cut wide credit trilogy are cashed out one by one, and according to the latest central bank's fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report, the expression is more positive, and the easing is expected to continue, we can see the clues from the expressions of "increasing cross-cyclical adjustment", "sufficient force", "leaning forward", "reducing the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises", "macro leverage ratio is stable and decreasing".
2) From the strategy mapping function, the microstructure of liquidity has not deteriorated, but recently institutions have adjusted their positions and exchanged shares, switching from last year's growth stocks to undervalued sectors, and the change in liquidity distribution has led to the illusion of market weakness, in fact, the total market value of A shares in February has rebounded from January. For the future market should not be pessimistic at the moment, spring restlessness is still promising.
3) From the perspective of the whole year, drawing on historical experience (2022 and 2012), in the stage of more fragile market confidence, the reversal of the market trend should be reflected after the initial hint of fundamental improvement, and the wide currency cannot directly reverse the market trend, but there are still opportunities for a phased rebound and the market, as we expected in the annual strategy report, this year is expected to show a slope slowdown in the "N" trend: the first quarter of the spring restlessness can be expected (rebound), but the opportunity in the second half of the year is better (reversal).
This article originated from China Fund News