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Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 11, 2022

author:Wall Street Sights

FM-Radio

Broadcast | Tian Dong

Market overview

U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the NASDAQ falling more than 2%, the Dow falling more than 500 points, both falling from three-week highs, and Disney bucking the market and rising more than 3%. The Pan-European Stock Index fell to a one-week high, with the technology sector falling more than 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose below 2 percent for the first time in two and a half years, and the 2-year yield rose more than 20 basis points in one day to a two-year high. The dollar index tested 96 to hit a new one-week high after the intraday turned down, and the Fed's senior officials turned up after a hawkish speech. Gold five consecutive Yang hit the longest three-month continuous rise in three months, and hit a new three-week high. Rennesie broke through a record high of $44,000, Lun Copper hit a new high in nearly four months, and Lun Aluminum ended five consecutive gains and fell to a more than thirteen-year high. U.S. oil continues to rally and still hasn't recovered $90, and EU carbon futures continue to fall off all-time highs.

News

The US CPI explosion market is expected to raise interest rates sharply, with US stocks falling back to more than 2% in the NASDAQ, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose below 2% for the first time in two and a half years.

China's financial data in January opened well: the increase of social financing of 6.17 trillion yuan far exceeded expectations, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and new RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, which was the highest point of single-month statistics.

The US side may open a new round of tariff investigations against China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: threats and pressure will not help solve the problem; the Ministry of Commerce: I hope that the US side will cancel the tariffs and sanctions and suppression measures on China as soon as possible.

Ministry of Commerce: Study and promote the introduction of a number of new policies and measures to vigorously promote the high-quality development of digital trade, technology trade and foreign cultural trade.

Heavy document of the Energy Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission: Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power bases Support new energy power to build, can be combined and can be fully developed。

Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Promote the application of waste power batteries in the fields of power backup, charging and replacement.

Media: The supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing welcomes the unified provisions of the whole country, and the shortage of capital flow of housing enterprises is expected to ease.

The "14th Five-Year Plan" tv drama development plan of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television: standardize the order of income distribution, and promote the use of standardized, institutionalized, and unified actor remuneration and other labor contracts.

Gülen Managed Fund Redeemed $40 Billion? CEIBS Fund Response: False News.

The first domestic PD1 "going to sea meeting", fda expert committee asked Cinda Biologics /Eli Lilly to supplement the clinical trial.

The U.S. CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, beating expectations and hitting a four-decade high; the market is expected to raise interest rates in the first half of the year, and the Fed is expected to either raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time or hold additional meetings to raise interest rates.

The Fed's vote this year is more hawkish: supporting a 100 basis point rate hike by July; shrinking the balance sheet faster than buying bonds; Biden said inflation would fall sharply before the end of the year, and the White House called on the Fed to close the water.

OPEC: Production increased by only 64,000 barrels per day in January, well below the planned 250,000 barrels.

Tesla recalled nearly 579,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to speaker problems, the 11th recall since October last year.

Loose is addictive! Faced with a sell-off in the bond market, the Bank of Japan announced that it would buy unlimited government bonds at fixed interest rates.

The market closes

U.S. stocks: The Dow fell 1.47%, the S&P 500 fell 1.81%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.

European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.21%. Germany's DAX 30 closed up 0.05%. France's CAC 40 closed down 0.41%. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.38%.

A shares: The Shanghai index closed at 3485.91 points, up 0.17%, with a turnover of 405 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13432.07 points, down 0.73%, with a turnover of 531.4 billion yuan. The ChiNext index closed at 2826.52 points, down 1.98%, with a turnover of 207 billion yuan.

Gold: COMEX April gold futures closed up less than 0.1% at $1837.40 an ounce.

Crude Oil: WTI March crude futures closed up $0.22, or 0.24 percent, at $89.88 a barrel. Brent's April crude futures closed down $0.14, or 0.15 percent, at $91.41 a barrel.

ETFs: S&P 500 SPY closed down 1.8%, NASDAQ 100 QQQ closed down 2.26%, Gold GLD closed down 0.38%, Gold Mine GDX closed down 2.85%, Silver SLV closed down 0.51%, US crude oil fund USO closed down 0.33%, and China Technology ETF-Guggenheim CQQQ closed down 1.64%.

Epidemic related

WHO: The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases worldwide exceeds 400 million

According to CCTV's latest real-time statistics quoted by WHO, as of 17:13 CET on February 10 (0:13 Beijing time on the 11th), the global cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia exceeded 400 million, reaching 402044502, and the cumulative number of deaths was 5770023.

Highlights

The index fell nearly 2% the performance of photovoltaic lithium batteries was sluggish The Ningde era once fell below the 500 yuan mark

On February 10, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.17% and rose for four consecutive days; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.98%. In terms of sectors, the catering and tourism, coal, precious metals, and agriculture sectors rose, while the photovoltaic, CRO, and communication sectors fell.

Commodities are strong and upward! Shanghai copper rose nearly 4% Iron ore rose more than 3% Soybean meal and A-share pig industry linkage strengthened

On Thursday, February 10, the domestic commodities market performed strongly. In terms of variety, the base metal momentum is fierce. Among them, the main futures prices of copper and iron ore rose by more than 3%. The agricultural products sector performed well, with soybean two and soybean meal leading the rise.

In January, social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and new RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, which was the highest point of single-month statistics

The increase in social financing rebounded significantly, far exceeding expectations; credit increased by 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, reaching a single-month statistical high; M2 growth rate rose while M1 growth rate declined, resulting in a widening of the M2-M1 scissors gap in January.

Interpretation of financial data in January: "Opening red" is full of color, but it can be optimistic about real estate

Shenwan Hongyuan report pointed out that the credit union financing "opening red" is full of color, the real estate industry chain financing ushered in a warm winter, it is expected that real estate investment bottomed out in the second quarter, and the probability of positive growth of about 1% throughout the year increased significantly.

The United States may open a new round of tariff investigations against China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: threats and pressure will not help solve the problem

Zhao Lijian responded that regarding the specific issues related to the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement, please ask the competent authorities to understand. As a matter of principle, I can tell you that China has always maintained that China and the United States should properly resolve issues in the economic and trade relations between the two countries in the spirit of mutual respect and consultation on an equal footing. Threatening and exerting pressure based on their own unilateral interests will not help solve the problem, but will only undermine the atmosphere of mutual trust and dialogue and negotiation between the two sides.

Ministry of Commerce: I hope that the US side will cancel the tariffs and sanctions and suppression measures imposed on China as soon as possible

At the Commerce Department's regular news conference on Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau said Tuesday that U.S.-China trade data showed that China was far from fulfilling its commitment to buy $200 billion worth more U.S. agricultural products, manufactured goods, energy and services from 2017. What is China's response to U.S. officials' call for "concrete action"? Gao Feng, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said that the phase one agreement between China and the United States is beneficial to China and the United States and the whole world. Since the agreement came into effect, China has worked hard to overcome the multiple adverse effects caused by the impact of the epidemic, the global economic recession and the obstruction of the supply chain, and promoted the joint implementation of the two sides. It is hoped that the US side will cancel the tariffs and sanctions and suppression measures imposed on China as soon as possible to create a good atmosphere and conditions for the two sides to expand trade cooperation.

Ministry of Commerce: Study and promote the introduction of a number of new policies and measures to vigorously promote the high-quality development of digital trade, technology trade and foreign cultural trade

Gao Feng, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the press conference that this year the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the reform, opening up and innovation of trade in services, focusing on the following aspects: First, work with relevant departments to solidly promote the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" Development Plan for Trade in Services and implement various tasks and measures. The second is to study and promote the introduction of a number of new policies and measures, and vigorously promote the high-quality development of digital trade, technology trade and foreign cultural trade. The third is to explore the institutional open path of trade in services and promote the introduction of a national negative list of cross-border trade in services. The fourth is to continue to promote the implementation of various policy measures for the pilot project of innovative development of trade in services, and summarize and promote more institutional innovation results. The fifth is to select areas with remarkable results in the pilot and upgrade and build a national service trade innovation and development demonstration zone. Vigorously develop digital trade, build a digital trade demonstration zone, and promote dual innovation in science and technology and system. The sixth is to promote the upgrading and expansion of the quality of the special service export base, improve the base management system and promotion system, and implement various policies and measures to support the development of the base.

Blockbuster file! Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power bases Support the construction of new energy power, the ability to merge and the full development

The main goal of the Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration is to basically establish an institutional framework for promoting the green and low-carbon development of energy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, form a series of systems, and build a mechanism for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.

Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Promote the application of waste power batteries in the fields of power backup, charging and replacement

Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued an implementation plan for accelerating the comprehensive utilization of industrial resources. The plan proposes to improve the management system, strengthen the traceability management of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicle power batteries, promote upstream and downstream cooperation in the industrial chain to build recycling channels, build a cross-regional recycling system, and promote the safe echelon application of waste power batteries in the fields of power backup, charging and replacement. A number of cascade and recycling demonstration projects will be built in key areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Cultivate a number of echelon and recycling backbone enterprises, and increase the research and development and promotion of power battery nondestructive testing, automated dismantling, efficient extraction of valuable metals and other technologies.

Concentrate on running enterprises without distraction and seek development - the Central Cyberspace Administration and other four departments held a symposium to promote the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises, which caused a warm response

This symposium made Internet information enterprises more soberly aware that in the future, they should enhance their confidence in development, face up to opportunities and challenges, and strive to become bigger and stronger.

Media: The supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing meets the unified regulations of the whole country, and the shortage of capital flow of housing enterprises is expected to ease

The media learned from industry insiders that the relevant departments recently issued relevant opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds for urban commercial housing. It is understood that compared with the relevant provisions in the "Measures for the Administration of Pre-sale of Urban Commercial Housing" issued in 1994, the biggest difference of the new management measures is that the provisions on pre-sale funds are clearly unified nationwide, which is conducive to standardizing the use of pre-sale funds and consolidating the regulatory responsibilities of relevant local departments. The new document clarifies the basic standards for the supervision of pre-sale funds, and also clarifies that the supervision quota of pre-sale funds is approved by the municipal and county-level housing and urban-rural construction departments according to the project contract and project cost to ensure that the funds required for the completion of the project can be withdrawn and used by housing enterprises after reaching the regulatory quota. The media believes that the new document is conducive to helping alleviate the shortage of capital flow of housing enterprises.

The "14th Five-Year Plan" tv drama development plan of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television: standardize the order of income distribution, and promote the use of standardized, institutionalized, and unified actor remuneration and other labor contracts

The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television promulgated the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Chinese Television Dramas", proposing to standardize the order of income distribution, including actors' remuneration, promote the use of standardized, institutionalized, and unified film remuneration and other labor service contracts, seriously deal with actors and related institutions that have violated laws and regulations such as tax evasion, "yin and yang contracts" and "sky-high film remuneration", and prohibit artists who have violated the law and morality from appearing on tv dramas. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 10-15 TV drama enterprises with strong creative production capacity will be built.

Guo Shuqing presided over a research symposium to study how financial asset management companies can focus on their main businesses and actively participate in the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, presided over the research forum that according to the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee, this year we must adhere to the principle of seeking progress in stability, the financial services industry should further do a good job in supporting high-quality economic development, adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, steadily promote the optimization of the industry structure, realize the light loading of enterprises, effectively promote the expansion of investment, increase consumption, and achieve a virtuous circle of the national economy. Financial asset management companies should strengthen coordination with other enterprises, adhere to the correct positioning, and make new positive contributions to the transformation of the financial industry and the development of the financial market.

Gülen Managed Fund Redeemed $40 Billion? CEIBS Fund Response: False News

It is rumored that a large insurance fund special account recently redeemed the fund share of Ceibas Star Fund Manager Gülen and was redeemed for 40 billion. In this regard, ceine european funds said that the "large redemption" spread on the Internet is false news, please do not believe the rumors, Gülen products have not been redeemed by major customers recently.

The first domestic PD1 "going to sea meeting" FDA expert committee asked Innovent Biologics/Eli Lilly to supplement clinical trials

Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly's PD-1 antibody, Sindili maclizumab, welcomed the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Independent Advisory Committee on Oncology And Drugs (ODAC) review thursday. The final vote for ODAC was 14:1, arguing that the product should be supplemented with clinical trials to be approved. Eli Lilly expressed disappointment with this result, hoping that patients could benefit from the aggressive price strategy of believing in dilizumab through an aggressive price strategy.

Why is the entire pharmaceutical industry paying attention to the first domestic PD-1 "meeting" FDA? The Wall Street Insights research article pointed out that due to the tightening of FDA regulatory policies, the market expects Cinda to fail the FDA review based on Chinese clinical data alone. However, the FDA's problems at the meeting have become the focus of concern for the entire pharmaceutical industry, which will directly affect the future internationalization process of Chinese pharmaceutical companies.

Another burst! The U.S. CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, exceeding expectations and continuing to brush a 40-year high

The rise in housing rental costs is perhaps the most critical booster. Market expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate hike in March were raised from 30 percent to 57 percent, and the 7-10-year Treasury yield curve briefly inverted.

The market is expected to raise interest rates in the first half of the year! Expect the Fed to either raise rates by 50 basis points at a time or meet in additional sessions to raise rates

After the announcement of the US CPI, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in the first half of the year, and the market pricing almost fully reflected the 50 basis points of interest rate hikes in March. Coincidentally, this year's Fed vote committee Bullard said he supported a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike by early July after the CPI was announced.

The US CPI exploded, the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 2%, and the market silently prepared for future interest rate cuts

After the release of the US inflation data, the US Treasury yield soared across the board, the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 2%, and the yield curve as a whole flattened. Looking at forward curve pricing, the market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in about two years. Financial blog Zerohedge commented that the market is pricing rate cuts, and it is almost certain that Fed policy will go wrong.

Biden says inflation will fall sharply by the end of the year After the White House has called for the Fed to close the water

Following Biden's call in January that the Fed now needs to adjust monetary policy appropriately to combat inflation, the White House statement on Thursday said the Fed was now fit to adjust monetary policy given the strength of the economic recovery and the recent pace of price increases.

Unemployment in the United States fell for the third consecutive week: 223,000 first-time applicants last week

As the impact of the Opichron variant on the labor market began to wane, the number of U.S. claimants for unemployment benefits continued to decline last week.

OPEC: January production increased by only 64,000 barrels per day instead of the planned 250,000 barrels

OPEC's monthly report did not raise global demand forecasts for this year, but believes that global crude oil demand has upside potential this year due to a strong global economic recovery and a rebound in industries such as tourism, which may exceed its forecast of 4.2 million b/d. In terms of production, OPEC crude oil production increased by 64,000 b/d to 27.98 million b/d in January, far below the increase in production promised under the OPEC+ agreement. Supply growth in non-OPEC countries last year was 60,000 b/d slower than expected, with supply growth expected at 3 million b/d.

Tesla is double-clicking recall! Nearly 579,000 vehicles were recalled in the United States due to speaker function issues

This is Tesla's 11th recall since October last year.

"Premium" data manipulation? The U.S. CPI weight adjustment has sparked controversy

"Increase the weight of the price stabilization field, lower the weight of the price strong project", how much credibility does the Biden administration have?

Is this time really different? How to understand the Fed's "improvisational" new framework

The Fed's monetary policy will accelerate towards "data dependence" in 2022, but the problem is that the predictability of data is too low in the new cycle of rate hikes.

Loose is addictive! In the face of the bond market selling, the Bank of Japan has struck again

The Bank of Japan's announcement that it will buy unlimited amounts of government bonds at fixed rates shatters market speculation that the Bank of Japan will normalize monetary policy. As traders increased their bets on the normalization of Japanese policy, the yield on Japan's 10-year treasury bonds continued to rise, approaching the key point of 0.25%.

China News - Regions and Industries

1. Space Station 丨 According to media reports, a few days ago, when the China Aerospace Science and Technology Group released the "Blue Book of China's Aerospace Science and Technology Activities (2021)", it was revealed that this year, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to arrange more than 50 space launch missions and launch more than 140 spacecraft.

Comments: Since 2018, the number of space launches on the mainland has increased rapidly, averaging 38 in 2018-2020, showing a doubling growth. In 2021, China Aerospace ranked first in the world with 55 launches, launching a total of 115 spacecraft with a total load mass of 191.19 tons, an increase of 85.5% year-on-year. At the same time, the mainland has made great progress in space launch activities, spacecraft development activities, space application services, commercial spaceflight, and international cooperation.

2. Electronic detonators 丨 The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly proposed at the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Safety Development plan of the civil explosives industry" that the industrial digital electronic detonators should be fully promoted, and in addition to retaining a small amount of production capacity for export or other licensed special purposes, production will be stopped before the end of June 2022, and the sale of ordinary industrial detonators will be stopped before the end of August.

Comments: The agency predicts that the annual consumption of traditional detonators in the market is about 1-1.2 billion rounds, assuming that the future electronic detonators are 100% penetrated, and the market space for electronic detonators will reach 15-18 billion yuan. Under the blessing of policies, the market potential is greater in the next few years.

3, steady growth 丨 According to the data of the People's Bank of China: the increase in the scale of social financing in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, rmb loans issued to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, which is the highest point of single-month statistics, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year; net financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of January, the balance of broad money M2 was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the end of the previous month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.

Comments: The fixed income team of Caitong Fund believes that in January, social financing exceeded expectations, and a number of data such as new credit, physical credit, and social financing data hit a record high, and the steady growth was unprecedented. Looking ahead, credit and social finance may not be bad in February, and the pace of expecting another RRR cut or interest rate cut will be delayed.

4. Semiconductor丨Smic (688981) latest announcement, the fourth quarter of 2021 operating income of 10.26 billion yuan, an increase of 53.8% year-on-year, a record high; gross profit of 3.352 billion yuan, an increase of 134.1% year-on-year; gross profit margin of 32.7%, the same period last year was 21.5%. The company expects revenue growth of 15%-17% sequentially and gross margin of 36%-38% in the first quarter of this year; capital expenditure for the full year is $5 billion, and the capacity increase is expected to be higher than last year.

Comments: Guotai Junan International said that the United States plans to provide $52 billion in financial support for the semiconductor industry, and the European Union also plans to invest 43 billion euros to increase the share of chip production. Although major foundries around the world have implemented expansion plans, it will take time to increase capacity, and the shortage of 8-inch wafers is expected to continue into the second half of 2023.

5. Resource recovery 丨 The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other eight departments recently issued the "Implementation Plan on Accelerating the Comprehensive Utilization of Industrial Resources", proposing to strive for the comprehensive utilization rate of bulk industrial solid waste to reach 57% by 2025. Among them, the smelting slag reached 73%, and the industrial by-product gypsum reached 73%. The utilization of major renewable resource varieties exceeds 480 million tons, of which 320 million tons of scrap steel and 20 million tons of waste non-ferrous metals.

Comments: Wang Ke of Open Source Securities said that the resource recycling industry is located at the back end of the industrial economic chain and is an important starting point for reducing carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. Whether it is scrap steel or magnetic scrap on a large scale, it can effectively reduce the consumption of raw mineral resources, shorten the process flow, and indirectly reduce the energy consumption carbon emission and environmental pollution generated in the mining and smelting processes such as iron ore and rare earths.

6, silicon wafer 丨 Recently, Sumco (Shenggao), the main supplier of silicon wafers in the global semiconductor industry, said that its production capacity in 2026 has been snapped up, which also indicates that the shortage of silicon wafers will continue. After releasing its earnings report on February 9, Shenggao said that all 12-inch wafer production in the next five years has been fully contracted by customers, while 6-inch and 8-inch wafers have not accepted such long-term orders, but demand may continue to exceed supply in the next few years.

Comments: Industry insiders say that the shortage of silicon wafers for such a long time is unprecedented. Wafer prices in 2021 are up 10% from the previous year, and Shenggao estimates that this rally will continue at least until 2024. Shenggao said that despite strong customer demand for long-term supply, it is simply unable to expand production this year. With Taishinke and Hejing joining the ranks of price increases, the industry is ushering in an empty prospect.

7, digital blind box 丨 According to reports, on February 9, nWayPlay said on the social platform that the digital blind box of the ice pier officially authorized by the International Olympic Committee will be sold at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on February 12, each priced at 99 US dollars. According to the official website, the blind box will contain 3 officially authorized digital brooches, the content of which includes 15 versions of the officially authorized mascot (ice pier) to perform various winter sports, such as skiing, jump sledding, snowboarding, etc., 5 versions of the official emblem of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and 1 version of the poster.

Comments: NFT due to its non-homogeneous, indivisible characteristics, so that it can anchor the concept of goods in the real world, simple to understand, is to issue on the blockchain digital assets, this asset can be game props, digital artwork, tickets, etc., and has uniqueness and non-replicability. The current market size of the entire collection is worth more than $130 billion.

8. New energy vehicles 丨 Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other eight departments issued a notice to accelerate the implementation plan for the comprehensive utilization of industrial resources. The notice proposes to improve the management system and strengthen the traceability management of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicle power batteries. Promote upstream and downstream cooperation in the industrial chain to build recycling channels and build a cross-regional recycling system.

Comments: A number of cascade and recycling demonstration projects will be built in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, yangtze river delta, and guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Cultivate a number of echelon and recycling backbone enterprises, and increase the research and development and promotion of power battery nondestructive testing, automated dismantling, efficient extraction of valuable metals and other technologies.

Today's highlights are forward.2

Germany January CPI. UK GDP in the fourth quarter. The IEA publishes its monthly crude oil market report. Final U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for February.

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