Text | Karakush
Seven years ago, a project that was eventually characterized as a Ponzi scheme ignited the magic track of new cars. At its peak, more than 600 new forces, large and small, emerged across the country, but no more than 20 names were remembered. It turned out that 20 was too much.
Start to 2022:
Xiaopeng delivered nearly 13,000 units, exceeding 10,000 units for five consecutive months;
Ideal delivery of more than 12,000 units, breaking through 10,000 units for three consecutive months;
Nezha delivered more than 11,000 units, breaking through 10,000 units for three consecutive months;
NIO delivered more than 9,600 units, almost breaking 10,000 units for three consecutive months;
Zero run delivered more than 8,000 units, nu yili seems to be able to break through the tens of thousands of units in no time
Only these five companies constitute the head of the new forces. They have some commonalities, and can organize the pattern of "Wei Xiaoli which runs" that distinguishes friends:
First, have the confidence that they can publish the delivery figures on the 1st, the scale of delivery and the waist of the enterprise to pull apart;
Second, at least have a professional longboard, middle-class service / intelligent driving / home user needs / well-off cost-effective / urban women's boutique;
Third, stable and sustained growth, and have the motivation for growth;
Fourth, eat 3% of the share in their own market segments, or enough to prove the product strength for C-end users;
Fifth, at present, the financial wealth is abundant, the financing is abundant, and there is no need to worry about the problem of bankruptcy;
Sixth, in the past three years, we have experienced a complete round of social beatings - the launch of problem/failed products, great industry ridicule and market overturning, rapid revision and iteration, surviving various temptations and pressures (competition, public opinion, shareholders, capital), witnessing the wholesale collapse of peers, and then surviving hard scalps -
Seven, basically completed the 0-1 verification.
The defeat of the king, coupled with the policy decline, marks the end of the qualifiers, and the next step should be the breakout battle for the survivors.
However, the New Forces movement seems to be far from reaching the midfield. Last year alone, at least 15 new influencers were released, and on average you hear about one or two new brands every month. You think there is no war on the Western Front, but you find yourself in the Somme. Compared with the new power generation established in 2014-2015, this generation of post-wave shows a ruthless differentiation:
They are no longer as happy to create stories as their predecessors, and each one is an effective killer.
This is not necessarily all a good thing.
The second wave
Two days ago, in the "Ten Gua of Cheshi Nongyin", we mentioned that there were at least several types of Houlang that were centralized last year:
The first type is the trumpets practiced by traditional car companies, such as SAIC's Zhiji and Feifan, Chang'an's Avita, the Great Wall's Salon, Geely's Extreme Krypton, and then counting dongfeng's Lantu and BAIC's Polar Fox.
The second category is the cross-border between the Internet and technology giants, such as Xiaomi, Jidu (Baidu), and then count AITO (Huawei).
The third category is wild friends who came out of nowhere and inserted a foot, such as tuanche, the background is to do car group buying; the light orange era, the background is to do games (dominating the daily love elimination) and finance; Luoke automobile, the background is to do sweeping robots (stone technology); Niuchuang technology, the background is to do electric two-wheeled (mavericks).
There is also a fourth category of projects that traditional automakers come out to operate, such as Binli Automobile, which is hosted by former Volkswagen executive Su Weiming, Yo-Yo Car, which is presided over by former Great Wall executive Li Peng, and Zhixing Box, which is from an automobile design company.
A box car specially built for taxis
——There are various kinds, but in addition to Xiaomi and Huawei's own traffic admission, people do not know much about this batch of back waves, nor do they care.
One reason for the obscurity may be that the models have not yet been delivered, or even released. The kryptonite and lantu that have been delivered are much more well-known. Waiting will not be too long, the rhythm of the back wave is very tight, many brands released last year are expected to be delivered within this year, the fastest like The krypton released the brand in April last year to the end of October to open delivery, only half a year apart. The purpose is obvious, and we strive to win the time window and shorten the gap with the head.
Their growth rate and market environment are far beyond their predecessors.
They are well funded, and markets and ultra-high returns drive up investment confidence. The parent company's own transformation demands are firm, making the safety of funds guaranteed; private capital is also a well-known institution that has earned money on the track before, and is more patient with the cycle of investment returns. For example, Luoke Automobile (Stone Technology) completed a financing of $100 million at the end of last year, which was led by Tencent and Sequoia; Niuchuang led the $500 million A round at the end of last year, led by IDG and COATUE.
Their exploration of building an organization has been greatly shortened, and a group of talents who know how to build a 0-1 are readily available on the market.
Their products master the wealth code and efficiently align the head to the highest level. For example, in the field of popular "high-end intelligent electric SUVs", the solutions come up with by various companies are highly convergent: minimalist design, four-wheel drive, intelligent cockpit, fusion perception, large computing chip, and high-end intelligent auxiliary driving. In addition, decent electric vehicle elements include direct sales, online booking, community operation, boutique stores and other new retail have been added to the design.
And outside of the formula, many products as well as brands don't offer much of a difference worth remembering. Everyone speaks with the product and does not tell stories.
For example, Niuchuang, its first product from the tour NV is a high-end medium and large SUV. At the brand conference at the end of last year, when asked about the core development strategy, the founder Li Yinan replied that he did not think about it; when asked about the relative advantage, he said that he really couldn't say it, anyway, he would do his own things well.
The summary of the brand is, "Self-touring should be able to bring happiness to customers and make customers proud to have self-touring products". That really doesn't prevent it from still being a good car.
The ability to tell stories is on the decline
As for what was said, it was very disastrous.
The group car provides an extreme sample. At the beginning of the year, the NASDAQ-listed company announced its entry into car manufacturing, and its confidence is that it has an external team of more than 100 people, with more than 20 years of car manufacturing experience, and can undertake all aspects of building a new energy vehicle, almost omnipotent:
Can do more than 20 million yuan of cars, can also do less than 50,000 yuan of cars, including commercial vehicles, logistics vehicles; the preferred electric, can also do solar energy, hydrogen energy; car manufacturing cycle of 18-24 months, compared with the fuel vehicle international manufacturers to 48 months, domestic manufacturers to 36 months; there are ready-made semi-finished models, the first car using mature programs, mature technology, mature suppliers, priced 100,000 to 200,000, pre-sale in the third quarter of this year; even if the first car fails, it does not matter, three months can do another one The funds used for the mass production of a car are a fraction of the new forces, such as Niu Chuang got 500 million US dollars, and the group car may be one-tenth of his.
As for the brand positioning, brand concept, brand target market, how to differentiate and so on, because from the want to build a car to the official announcement of less than half a year, it is also "not yet thought out".
Lee wanted to scold him into the C position
There is no such thing as a prophet to see who dies. In this narrative alone, it is an accurate roadshow: emphasizing a wide range of choices, which means that any money can be earned; the speed of getting out of the car means that the return on investment is fast; the program is mature, which means that there is no risk; the cost of trial and error is low, even if there is risk; and it is also cheap.
It is reported that the financial situation of Tuanche.com is not good, and it has been in a state of loss since 2016, and its market value has fallen from $618 million at the beginning of the listing to $42.86 million today. Finance and economics network reported that its performance bonus in the second half of the year was not issued to all employees, and after December 30, all employees were waiting at home, and the time for resuming work was undecided, during which a minimum wage of 2,000 yuan / month was given. Tuanche said that it was affected by the epidemic and suspended the offline auto show business.
Our vigilance against storytelling began with the collapse of Jia's house. With le as a benchmark, the capital market has successively appeared to circle the money as the goal of the company's strong rubbing, coupled with some capital drumming and flowers, a total of a chicken feathers. Storytelling is considered to be a riotous operation of hovering cars.
But not telling a good story doesn't naturally equate to doing things solidly; the greater possibility may just be that there really is nothing.
What is the essence of storytelling?
Good stories don't necessarily go to the head, but the head has a good story. It contains at least two aspects:
First, the value of innovation in business models or technologies.
In 2014, the main story of smart electric vehicles is electrification and intelligence.
Ironically, the story of Dingge was told by Jia Yueting. He believes cars will have the same "disruptive" pricing model as mobile phones and TVs. In the long run, content and services can be sold to users, eventually reaching the point where automotive hardware is free; in the short term, the most disruptive part is that the performance is doubled and the price is halved. Even if the project fails, it can be said that it is still broadening the imagination of latecomers. This makes us still warmly place LeEco's story between dreams and scams when we evaluate them.
And from 2020 onwards, the story becomes high-end autonomous driving. On the way from L2 to L4, there are no new stories.
PPT in the light orange era
The second is to convey corporate values.
Some friends believe that corporate values are a luxury for start-up projects, which must be attached to scale and history, and are the spiritual civilization construction that only medium- and large-sized enterprises are worthy of. This is third-rate cognition.
First-class companies must have a value system that has been explored since the inception stage, and it may be shaped by the cruel pressure of survival into a kernel that is not the original design, but must have a "source code" like core.
It is to answer and solve the question of who we are, why we are established, in what direction, and how to go. With this core, we can derive a reasonable design and system, take root and actuate the guarantee system, form a healthy organization, and carry out continuous value creation.
Furthermore, corporate values are not grand narratives, and every sentence can be expressed and quantified in a clear and concise manner. So those who can't tell the story, using "don't know", "didn't think well", "don't matter" or the adjectives of the head, are worth asking more questions: why was the company set up, even if a car mixed well, whether it has the ability to continue to create value.
No more storytelling avoids these key questions.
Call it a day
Xiaomi is still telling stories: a netizen who claims to be a xiaomi fan used 31 pencils to cut off 31 pencils in 3 months
Third-rate companies, like first-class companies, take time to verify. This track seems to have an inexhaustible grassland, a hot money that cannot be burned, and an inexhaustible enthusiasm. I'm afraid it will take a long time to identify the differences.
Ten thousand steps back, most of the companies are third-rate companies, and it is good to be able to do a good job.
In September last year, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of Industry and Information Technology of China, pointed out that the number of new energy automobile enterprises is now too large and is in a small and scattered situation, encouraging mergers and acquisitions of enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and further improve industrial concentration.
This may also be the last wave we can see.