Source: Zimu Liaofang, author Zimu
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Text / Zimu
"Did it go well? When will you get married? Have you bought a house, but what about a car? ”
Every New Year's Day, seniors like to raise a glass, examine the young people at the table one by one, enthusiastically inquire, and then pour out their hearts and lungs to teach.
Anyway, Lao Tzu eats more salt than your rice.
This year, in terms of buying a house, there are not many problems, and everyone basically revolves around "house prices falling" and "a big explosion", lamenting that the world is impermanent, and this night is no better than in previous years.
The most intense discussion is about buying a car.
Men, women and children, according to their own opinions, are automatically divided into two camps, oil trucks vs trams.
The people who buy the fuel car look down on the tram, the person who buys the tram looks down on the gas car, often quarrels, the most exaggerated, I have seen the wine friends cut off, the father will insist on buying the tram son, scolded out of the house.
The deep reason behind this is that the brand level and contempt chain established by the automotive industry in the past few decades are being challenged by electric vehicles, and the hierarchy of fuel vehicles is disintegrating, and the system of electric vehicles themselves has not yet formed.
Consumers have a cognitive blind spot, and for the first time, there is a blank space between fuel vehicles and electric vehicle brands, allowing this "chain of contempt" to spread wantonly.
A friend complained to me, "Two days ago, I opened a Wei back to the hometown for the New Year, and the uncles at the head of the village surrounded me and asked, is your charging car very cheap, because when you mention the tram, you think of the electric donkey, and you don't know that this goods are more expensive than ordinary Audis." ”
In the eyes of northerners, it is generally felt that trams are unreliable, and in the winter, the battery is "frozen" to power, coupled with the low density of charging piles in the north, electric vehicles are like a toy.
Is this really the case? Is the value of new energy electric vehicles worth buying, and how to choose between oil vehicles?
In between, there is actually a quiet change of the times, and we should understand what kind of wealth opportunities these inadvertent changes can bring.
1
Energy vehicle differentiation
There is no point in anyone's argument about whether to buy a tram or a gas car, the main thing is the sales data, which is the vote made by consumers.
According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, sales of new energy passenger vehicles (EVs, PHEVs) in 2021 were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.5%.
What is this concept?
In 2021, the mainland passenger car sales will be 20.146 million units, and according to this value, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 14.8%.
There is a well-known law in the field of industrial consumer goods, when a new product, its penetration rate of more than 10%, consumer habits and product quality have completely entered the explosive period.
In this regard, the Association of Passenger Vehicles will give a bolder value, believing that the sales of new energy passenger cars will reach 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate will reach 25%.
We all know that the economic volume of the automobile industry is basically linked to a country's GDP, and in the past few decades, western countries led by the United States have advocated and monopolized oil vehicles, because this is linked to oil, and oil is linked to the dollar, which can maintain the hegemony of the dollar.
The mainland automobile industry started late, and it has to look at the faces of Westerners to live, and can only exchange a huge market and labor force for a little pitiful technology.
In the long run, nearly 70% of the mainland's oil depended on imports, and 70% of the trade in imported oil had to pass through the Strait of Malacca, not only by others, but also in crisis in oil transportation.
The reason why a big country is a big country, there must be an independent industry-wide economy, not bound by any country, so in recent years, the mainland has continued to introduce a series of new energy subsidy policies, that is, let us develop our own new energy products and get rid of energy restrictions in other countries.
In a sense, the automobile industry revolution is a historical energy revolution, a competition of science and technology between countries, and a necessary way for the rise of great powers.
Whether it is or not, this wave has become a formality. Because while the new energy vehicle gradually shows its competitive advantage, behind it is actually the national Tianzi strategy.
In recent years, while investigating the property market in the country, I am also paying attention to the new energy vehicle market and found several important differentiation problems:
The first is the differentiation of urban energy levels.
Big cities have a high acceptance of new energy vehicles, north to Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities, new energy vehicles are everywhere, people pay attention to comfort, but in the third and fourth-tier cities, the frequency of new energy vehicles is accelerated and reduced, basically classify good cars as BBA, pay attention to face.
The second is the North-South difference.
Because of climatic reasons, the acceptance capacity of new energy vehicles in the north is generally poor. In the south, new energy vehicles have become the mainstream, especially in Shenzhen, the streets and alleys are all new energy, and the basic mandatory requirements of local taxis and Didi are new energy vehicles.
But I think these problems will eventually be resolved, and there are two reasons behind it:
The first is the rise of domestic brands, and the second is the transformation of technology in the automotive industry.
2
National self-confidence
In the 2021 new energy vehicle report, there is such a data, independent brands accounted for 2.53 million, accounting for 84%.
That is to say, more than 80% of consumers will choose domestic brands, which is a number that has never been seen in the mainland automotive industry, on the one hand, stems from the late layout of foreign new energy vehicles, on the other hand, the establishment of national self-confidence.
Of course, our national self-confidence is not simply playing the emotional card, but a solid technological revolution.
For example, Xiaopeng Automobile's automatic navigation, Weilai's fully automatic power change, ideal range extender, BYD's super hybrid.
Speaking of BYD, in the eyes of many people, there is only the concept of low-end and cheap, no matter how expensive BYD is, it will eventually be considered a Special Car for Didi drivers.
In fact, as one of the earliest national brands, BYD has quietly undergone great changes.
At the beginning of 2020, BYD's market value was only about 137 billion, and in 2021, BYD's market value was the highest nearly one trillion, ranking third in the world' car companies, second only to Tesla and Toyota.
This explosive growth is not luck, but the affirmation of THE capital market to BYD's technology. In recent years, BYD has invested tens of billions of yuan in research and development, and has developed the core technology of three electrics, blade battery and super hybrid technology.
In terms of hybrid technology alone, in the past, the market has been occupied by Japanese Shuangtian (Toyota, Honda), Chinese want to make hybrid vehicles, it is simply impossible, and foreign countries have been using this technology to cut Chinese leeks.
A car friend told me:
In the past, car dealers sold explosive cars, first of all, they set up a name, cooperated with giants, people out of the brand and technology, we out of manpower, as long as it is a domestic popular model, all the price of the car, love to buy and buy do not buy roll, after getting money three or seven points, can take 30%, but also depends on the face of foreign capital.
In 2021, BYD launched DMI super hybrid technology in a historic way.
1.5L naturally aspirated plug-in hybrid engine, up to 43% of the world's most thermally efficient engine, high safety factor and small blade battery, EHS hybrid system, single-speed direct drive without transmission, a set of combinations directly reduce the fuel consumption to 4-5 oil per 100 kilometers.
And the price is more than 100,000 yuan cheaper than Shuangtian.
At the same time, BYD's brand power is also accelerating. The data shows that BYD's net red model "Han" last year's total sales volume was 117665. And for five consecutive months, it ranked in the top three sales of medium and large cars, on an equal footing with the BBA.
It is foreseeable that in 2022, BYD will seize the throne of global new energy vehicle sales with an absolute advantage, and the average price of BYD series cars will gradually equal Tesla in the future.
When I explained all this, many people still did not believe that the low-end BYD, which was the most inconspicuous domestic product before, was so cattle.
To be honest, I didn't believe it at first, but since last year, more and more people around me have begun to tell me the story of BYD, telling the story of the rise of domestic new energy vehicles, which shocked me greatly.
In fact, behind BYD is the epitome of the rise of China's automobile industry, in which I am most emotional is that a small city can catch up with the white-skinned rich and handsome, this spirit is more inspiring than the value brought by car building.
3
witness
We may not be participants in this era, but we must be bystanders of the times.
30 years ago, SAIC Volkswagen sold a Santana to more than 100,000, 20 years ago, domestic cars appeared on the stage, but Geely, Great Wall, Chery, BYD can only be stepped on by foreign brands, in the copy and spit in the survival.
Now, we can also raise our heads to make money, and in the near future, ordinary people can also proudly drive "made in China" cars.
In the face of the new energy wave, whether you admit it or not, like it or not, it will become an indispensable part of our lives.
After all, once the momentum rises, there is nothing to stop it.
--- you---
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