The change in this year's Spring Festival stalls came a little early.
There is no suspense, following the 650 million box office in the first half of the year, the number of screenings of "Watergate Bridge" increased to about 165,000 times the next day, and then closed 440 million box office in a single day, down 31% from the first day of the painting, the decline was significantly higher than the same period last year of "Tang Detective 3" (the next day fell 19%), but the cumulative box office in the two days of release has exceeded the 1 billion mark, plus the pre-sale box office, the cumulative box office of the film has exceeded 1.2 billion, and it continues to remain a dominant company.
And "This killer is not too cold" did complete the box office counterattack on "Four Seas" on the second day of the Spring Festival file, rising to the runner-up of the Spring Festival file, the film box office fell only 4% the next day, and the cumulative box office in two days has exceeded 400 million, and the number one dark horse in the Spring Festival file has become the trend.
This means that Happy Twist has finally found the king who independently carried the 20 box office comedy hits in the case of zero "tenancy" in the film - Wei Xiang. This is truly a true reality version of the story of The King of Comedy.
However, the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger is not all comedy, and the dissuasion effect of high ticket prices on the audience is not only continuing, but even intensifying, the two-day market of the New Year's Day fell sharply by 32%, and the national single-day box office has lost the 1 billion mark, only reaching the level of the sixth day of last year.
As some theaters wake up like a dream, realizing that high ticket prices are not necessarily a trick to win high box office, but self-imposed self-indulgence of the audience, the average price of the film has dropped slightly to 56.2 yuan the next day, but it is still far higher than the daily level, and even if the price is reduced now, the audience who has been dissuaded by the high ticket price may not be willing to come back.
When the high ticket price successfully made the whole Spring Festival file cake, the Spring Festival stall crowd is destined to be less happy and many people sad, and the next biggest suspense may not be whether "Watergate Bridge" can break the box office record in film history, but whether the overall quality of the original spring festival file film can work together to avoid a Spring Festival box office three consecutive falls.
The Spring Festival file of the Year of the Tiger has obviously rewritten its own ending, and the question is, can the films squeezed into the Spring Festival file find their own perfect ending?
1. No matter how strong "Watergate Bridge" is, the imagination of the strongest Spring Festival file ended ahead of schedule on the second day of the Chinese New Year
"Watergate Bridge", a ride to the dust.
"Watergate Bridge", which broke 17 records on the first day and 40 box office records in two days, has no one to stop the trend, and its single film output has reached nearly half of the box office during the period, that is, the sum of the box office of two, three, four or five films.
What makes the counterattack even more impossible is that the reputation of the film is also maintained at a very high level, although the Douban score is only 7.2, but the cat's eye score is as high as 9.6 is enough to prove that the ordinary audience's love for the film is overflowing, the cries in the theater are not fake, and the audience's touch can not be pretended.
Director Xu Ke has obviously found the state of "Wise Tiger Mountain" again, once again perfectly combining the spectacle of commercial films with the main theme.
As a martial arts film bearer and visual master among Hong Kong film directors, From the very beginning, Xu Ke should have been the first candidate to direct the film among Hong Kong film directors.
It turns out that "Watergate Bridge" is another beautiful battle.
The film changes from a grand battle between the two armies to a small team combat in which the soldiers of the seventh company are reduced to pieces, which on the one hand tests the director's control, and on the other hand, it makes Xu Ke shoot with ease.
And Xu Ke's emotional grasp in martial arts films can also be easily transformed into the expression of war friendship, brotherhood and the righteousness of the family and country in the film.
Saying that Xu Ke can't shoot the feelings of home and country, has he not seen "Lion King Battle"?
And when Xu Ke plays normally, the quality of the film is on the same level as the first one, and naturally will not give other films any chance to counterattack.
As for whether it can break the film history record set by "Chosin Lake", a third party optimistically gave a box office forecast of about 7.5 billion.
However, the box office myth of "Chosin Lake" is based on five consecutive downward trends, and even under the increasingly significant Matthew effect of the Spring Festival file, "Watergate Bridge" has achieved a monopoly on the box office, but with the Success of the Spring Festival cake being successfully made small by high ticket prices, the film has obviously become an extremely difficult task to complete its own overtaking.
But even if it is impossible to complete self-transcendence and make the total box office of the series exceed 10 billion, it is still an absolute high probability event.
The question is, is there any other winner in the Spring Festival stall?
2, "Killer" has become the strongest dark horse in the Spring Festival file, what about "Sniper"?
"This Killer Is Not Too Calm", successfully broke through.
In the case of the overall decline in the market and the per capita decline in the box office of the seed players in the first two years, the film will control the next day's decline at 4%, which is already an absolute proof of strength.
"Killer" surpassed "Four Seas" at the box office the next day to prove two points: One is a really funny happy twist comedy, put in any schedule, the result will not be bad.
Second, even if the overall quality of the film is average, a top comedian can still support the entire film with strong performance tension. I'm talking, of course, to Wei Xiang.
"Killer" is not unexpected, unexpectedly, the Douban score of 7.7 to lead the Spring Festival "Sniper", the next day's box office did not rise, down nearly 40%, it can be said that many people were surprised.
But in fact, this box office trend is not surprising at all, because this is the box office embarrassment encountered by "Surging Crowds" last year, and it is also in the case of good reputation that the situation of "Surging Crowds" in the first half of the Spring Festival is completely dismal.
At that time, Maoyan's box office prediction for the film had been lowered to less than 300 million, but in the end the film won nearly 800 million at the box office.
Why didn't word of mouth work at the next-day box office? The reason is also very simple, one is that just as the comedy genre of "Crowd" collided with "Tang Detective 3" and "Li Huanying" last year, the audience of "Sniper" directed by Zhang Yimou this year also has a significant overlap with "Watergate Bridge".
Second, under the premise of a sharp rise in ticket prices, the audience will be more inclined to choose films with large scenes, thinking that this will be worth the ticket price.
But the experience of "Crowd" also shows that gold will always shine, as long as the quality is excellent, the film is expected to be expected to go out of the long line with word-of-mouth advantages in the post-Spring Festival file and complete the counterattack.
Let's wait for sniper bullets and fly a little longer.
3, "Four Seas" box office slowdown, "Miracle" opportunity to come?
"Four Seas" ushered in a box office rollover on the second day of the Spring Festival file.
Although it still ranks third in the single-day box office, the film plummeted by 55.3% compared with the first day of the opening, and the box office of the next day barely exceeded 100 million, and the cumulative total of 300 million in the two days of release exceeded 300 million, just surpassing the box office on the first day of "Flying Life".
But I don't agree with the idea that the film is a bad film, and I don't agree that the failure of the film is a punishment for Han Han's self-repetition.
Wong Kar-wai has been making a movie repeatedly, that is, "The Legend of Ah Fei", and many big directors are that self-repetition is not a problem.
The problem is that the film has the lowest reputation in Han Han's directing career.
A large part of the negative evaluation of the film comes from the film's anti-climactic narrative and Han Han's artistic choice of "half comedy, half tragedy".
And this choice may never be suitable for the Spring Festival stalls.
In fact, in the first half of the film, most theaters are filled with happy air, especially the performances of Shen Teng and gold medal Luye Yinzheng, and the cameos of Wan Ziliang and Chen Xiaochun, which make the theater full of laughter. In this part, Han Han's racing, brotherhood, first love face heroine, and small-town feelings still work.
The problem is that with the big brother played by Yin Zheng, the box lunch is halfway, and shen Teng's role also mysteriously disappears.
The audience began to enter the state of watching the movie without knowing what Han Han was doing.
In the end, the audience who liked it thought that Han Han still had a pure heart, and dared to put a tragic ending in the Spring Festival file, liu Haoran played the teenager Ah Yao's family, friendship, love, no one accompanied him to the end, so dare to do things only Han Han can do, and sure enough, he did not love him wrong.
But viewers who don't like it will feel that four words can sum up the film - inexplicably.
When Han Han pinned all his feelings and loves, ideas and emotions in a Spring Festival movie, he chose to bear the fate of the film -
All feelings are abused, and all circumstances are evil.
It is said that "Four Seas" originally wanted to be released in the summer, but because of the difficulty of production, coupled with the hope that every shot is very exquisite, it was simply put into the Spring Festival file.
It's all fate.
The question now is, as the "Four Seas" schedule inevitably declines, who will benefit from it?
My judgment is: "Miracle Stupid Child".
This film, which is about to break through the 300 million mark at the cumulative box office, is undoubtedly far less than the prediction of many box office forecasting agencies.
But Wen Muye did not disappoint anyone, he did bring another entertaining, but also full of social reality presentation and reflection of excellent works.
It is expected that the proportion of box office and scheduling will be rapidly reduced, and the schedule will give way to "Watergate Bridge", not because of the poor reputation of the film, but because the audience generally reflects "too miserable".
After all kinds of types are in the Spring Festival stalls, it turns out that the type of bitterness is still not suitable for the Spring Festival stalls.
But Wen Muye has worked hard to inject all kinds of entertainment into the film, and the viewing of dismantling mobile phones is not inferior to defusing bombs.
12.5% of the third grade film has re-surpassed "Four Seas" (11.7%), and I still believe that as long as it is a good movie, miracles can happen.
4. This year's Spring Festival file is enough to prove that high ticket prices, that is, high box office, are just a box office fantasy of all parties
But this year's Spring Festival stalls will no longer surpass last year's ending.
Although Guotai Junan Securities expects that with the number of mainland film screens exceeding 80,000, the construction of cinema infrastructure is becoming more and more complete, based on the calculation of single-screen output, the total box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 is expected to reach 8.5 billion yuan.
But this set of calculations clearly misses one thing: people.
It's the audience that buys tickets, not big data.
And the current ticket price, let me, the average audience, need to think clearly before buying each ticket.
It is also under this kind of big data reasoning that this year's Spring Festival file ushered in an unprecedented high ticket price, and many people in the industry took it for granted that even if the ticket price is raised, the audience will still enter the theater during the Spring Festival, but they have all miscalculated.
Because watching movies is no longer the new generation of audiences' new Year's needs.
According to the forward-looking data of the Maoyan Research Institute, compared with the past three years (2018-2021), the audience over the age of 35 in the Spring Festival file this year accounted for more, the audience under the age of 25 accounted for the least, and the film consumer group tended to be older.
In other words, excellent films such as "Watergate Bridge" did mobilize many middle-aged and elderly audiences who did not often watch movies to enter the theater, but this Spring Festival slot lost the young audience that should be won the most.
Those who take it for granted that the ticket price increase needs to think clearly: under the challenge of new entertainment methods such as script killing and secret rooms, why do young audiences have to go to the theater to spend 60-100 yuan to watch movies?
The good news of the Spring Festival file is that as of 0:00 on February 2, the cumulative box office of the films starring young actor Yi Yanqianxi exceeded 10 billion, becoming the first post-00 filmmaker in the Chinese film market to break 10 billion box office.
This means that a new generation of box office stars that maintain their appeal to the young market is growing, but even with excellent films and new and old box office stars, all indications are that this year's Spring Festival slot is unlikely to create a record high.
A price increase choice that treats the audience as a cash machine, and finally lifts a stone and drops it on his own feet, hoping that the last thing that hurts will not be a Chinese movie.