February 6, 2023 issue | Total Issue 3139
"The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red" are the "dual engines" of the Spring Festival box office, and the two films form a box office trend of catching up with me during the schedule. During the period, "Manjiang Hong" successfully topped with an income of 2.6 billion yuan, and "The Wandering Earth 2" ranked second with 2.1 billion yuan.
On February 4, "The Wandering Earth 2" regained the title of "Parting" for 13 days with a single-day box office of 150 million yuan, followed by "Manjiang Hong" with 130 million yuan.
The two films have fierce competition in the market, driving the popularity of the box office. Outside the market, fans from all walks of life began to cheer for their favorite films, and some fans questioned the late-night "ghost field" of "Manjiang Red", and the high box office had moisture. What exactly is the specifics? How did the box office of the two films surpass at different stages?
With questions, the film and television monologue interviewed market experts, young scholars, and theater managers, asking them to express their views on this box office war from different angles.
Late at night "full" ≠ ghost field
In this year's Spring Festival, netizens turned over the "grand occasion" of "Manjiang Red" at zero o'clock on the ticketing platform. Is such a scene a ghost field?
Winter explained: "This is not a ghost field, it is an invalid scene. The Spring Festival movies are dense, and it is difficult for theaters to give each film enough pomp and circumstance, in order to meet the number of performances previously negotiated with the distributor, some theaters will arrange some such waste. The full seat on the ticketing app is that the theater locks these seats, and the theater does not want to stay open until the early hours of the morning because a few people bought tickets for late-night performances. ”
Late-night invalid performances are only created to meet the distributor's demand for performances, and will have no actual impact on the box office. Strictly speaking, it is the film side that suffers. Today's box office inquiry system is very complete, and the audience can observe the box office revenue of each theater in each period through ticket purchase platforms such as Maoyan and Taobao Tickets, and it is impossible to fill the box office with water through the ghost field.
At present, the screenshots of the late night full of Spring Festival movies given by netizens are all at the level of locking the scene and locking the seat, which just verifies Winter's point of view.
Why did "Manjiang Red" create the "Midnight Miracle"?
On February 2 and February 3, "Manjiang Red" is still the single-day box office champion, but the gap between "The Wandering Earth 2" and it is getting smaller and smaller. Especially during the day, "The Wandering Earth 2" is often in the first position at the box office, but after 9 p.m., the box office of "Manjiang Red" gradually rises and surpasses "The Wandering Earth 2".
Such a white-hot box office competition is relatively rare in the history of the Spring Festival file. Why does "Manjiang Red" frequently achieve box office reversal in the middle of the night?
Film practitioner Liancheng Yi said that there are three reasons for this:
First of all, the single-day box office of the two films itself is not much different, and the first and second at the box office are just a change of position.
Second, the data released by Maoyan and Taobao Ticket are estimated based on their market share, and the two platforms will fine-tune according to the data of the Film Funding Office the next day, and the estimated data is inherently incorrect.
Third, theaters will enter some box office data centrally. In addition to the Maotao platform, many audiences will also purchase tickets through offline front desks, unit centralized charters, cinema APP, and various coupons. The box office data of the same day is generally automatically uploaded through the theater ticketing system in the early morning of the next day, and the next day or a few days later it is completed. During the Spring Festival to the Lantern Festival, the transaction volume is large and error-prone, and there will naturally be a wave of digital jumps, which cannot prove that the film party has water injection behavior.
It can be seen that the single-day box office of "Manjiang Red" surpassed at midnight, which is not as complicated and profound as netizens speculated. Industry insiders seem to be normal market performance, and outsiders are not familiar with the situation and are prone to misunderstanding.
Why did "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" alternately overtake?
"Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" each achieved a wonderful reversal in the box office list, attracting attention from inside and outside the industry.
On January 22 (the first day of the Lunar New Year), "The Wandering Earth 2" won the championship with a score of 470 million yuan, and "Manjiang Red" ranked second with a score of 70 million yuan. On the second day of the Lunar New Year, "Manjiang Red" won the championship, 30 million yuan ahead of "The Wandering Earth 2". Since then, in the Spring Festival file, "Manjiang Red" has always occupied the single-day champion.
On February 4, "The Wandering Earth 2" surpassed "Manjiang Red" at the box office with a relatively high attendance rate after the holiday, and once again became the single-day box office leader.
The reason why these two overtakes attracted attention was that "The Wandering Earth 2" was originally regarded as the number one seed player in the industry as the champion of the schedule, and it was overtaken on the second day of the new year, which was unexpected. Secondly, the Spring Festival file has passed, and the overall downward trend of ticket sales has been, and "The Wandering Earth 2" is becoming more and more courageous, and its reversal is also full of surprises.
Young scholar Zhi Fina explained: "I asked several theater friends on the first day of the Lunar New Year, and their feedback was that "Manjiang Hong" has a high attendance rate in second- and third-tier cities. In the second year of junior high school, the theater will adjust the arrangement structure according to the market situation, and "Manjiang Red" is popular, and the number of film schedules will go up. From my market research, the popularity of "Manjiang Red" during the Spring Festival is higher than that of "The Wandering Earth 2". ”
Why did "The Wandering Earth 2" fail to achieve box office leadership in the Spring Festival? Zhifina analyzed: "The Wandering Earth 2" is close to 3 hours long, and the hardcore sci-fi plot, I personally think it is not very suitable for children and the elderly. The lively atmosphere of "Manjiang Red" is easy to become the choice of family watching. ”
Liancheng Yi Crisp summarizes three reasons for the reversal of "The Wandering Earth 2" after the Spring Festival file:
First, "The Wandering Earth 2" is a special effects blockbuster, and many viewers may not see the IMAX version or find a good special effects theater (Dolby Cinema, CINITY Cinema) after returning home for the New Year. They returned to the big city after the holiday, which ushered in the second round of the film's box office explosion.
Second, the propaganda offensive of "Manjiang Hong" after the holiday is obviously tightening. The hot search for the film is less, and the topic is not as dense as during the Spring Festival. On the contrary, the ongoing national roadshow of "The Wandering Earth 2" has led to a wave of new popularity, and the hot search has increased the attention of representatives and has a positive impact on the box office.
Third, CNNC and other units have supported "The Wandering Earth 2" on social platforms, which will also increase the attention of the film.
epilogue
Who will win the final box office results of "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2"?
Winter believes that the total box office of "The Wandering Earth 2" is still difficult to surpass "Manjiang Hong", after all, there is still a gap of 600 million yuan between the two films. Although "The Wandering Earth 2" surpassed it, the box office trend of "Manjiang Red" is still strong.
Manager Liu of a theater in Beijing said: "After the Spring Festival, the attendance of "The Wandering Earth 2" is obvious, and we have increased the number of performances accordingly, especially the attendance of IMAX theaters is particularly excellent. The attendance rate of "Manjiang Red" in ordinary theaters is also very good, and the two films should be said to be on par. ”
Liancheng Yi Crisp emphasized: "Theaters will not only watch the box office performance of one movie during the Spring Festival. Which film has high attendance, they will adjust to the trend. The popular films in the schedule have achieved high box office, which is the ideal result that theaters expect. ”
Filmmakers are concerned about the overall recovery of the industry, and the performance of Spring Festival films brings hope. Don't make a fuss about those fan-type audiences who protect the lord, where in the world are there so many conspiracies and conspiracies. As for those big Vs who are still busy with rhythm during the New Year, you have indeed worked hard, but it is a virtue to keep silent about things you don't understand.
【Text/Cui Ting】