The counterattack drama of the Spring Festival stall has finally begun.
On the fifth day of the Lunar New Year on February 5, the preliminary statistics of the national box office were 854 million, and the impact of the Winter Olympics was much smaller than expected, creating the second highest single-day performance of the first five days in history.
To support the market, of course, first of all, is still a ride on the dust of "Watergate Bridge", the film's single-day box office exceeded 300 million for five consecutive days, breaking 2 billion days required to catch up with the same period last year's "Hello, Li Huanying" and the previous work "Chosin Lake", plus the pre-sale box office, the film's current box office to break 2.3 billion, breaking into the top 20 in the history of mainland film.
But what is more story-like is actually other films in the Spring Festival file: "This Killer Is Not Too Calm" has completely entered the state of "killing crazy", after the box office exceeded 1.2 billion, Maoyan's box office prediction for the film has soared from less than 1 billion on the first day of the Spring Festival to 2.7 billion.
And "Miracle Stupid Kid" and "Sniper" have achieved a reverse fall, especially exciting is that after the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics was praised by the Chinese people and the world, the audience finally began to support the film of the old strategist with real money and silver, and as "Sniper" began to exert force, the story of the Spring Festival file finally had a new change.
Although under the dissuasion effect of high ticket prices, the Spring Festival stall came to the 5th day, and the cumulative box office just broke 5 billion, which is not only far lower than the number predicted by many institutions, but also once again hit the face of big data box office prediction, and it is already difficult to break last year's record of 7.8 billion.
Judging from the number of moviegoers, the film market has lost nearly 1/3 of the audience compared with last year, and this "most expensive" Spring Festival file has obviously not become another strongest Spring Festival file.
But in the cold wind of winter, there are always people who can go against the wind, such as Zhang Yimou, who can create the most moving Chinese in the coldest ice and snow.
No matter how cold the winter is, it can't stop the story of spring.
"Killer" "kill crazy", "Sniper" and "Miracle" have fallen continuously, and the Spring Festival file has been supported again?
Judging from the box office of the first five years, the Spring Festival file of the Year of the Tiger is picking up.
The box office of "Watergate Bridge" fell by 7.2% month-on-month in the first five years, and the trend improved significantly.
"Killer" single-day box office remained at the level of nearly 250 million for three consecutive days, and the single-day box office gap with "Watergate Bridge" narrowed to less than 100 million for the first time, if the film can finally win the latest prediction of Maoyan 2.7 billion, this will not only be the first happy twist comedy with less (actually zero) but a box office of 2 billion, but also the highest-grossing happy twist comedy after "Shy Iron Fist".
"Miracle Stupid Child" is more and more courageous, the box office fell by 8% compared with the first four, and the single-day box office once again exceeded 100 million, becoming the most stable trend in recent times.
The theaters that were busy withdrawing the film on the second day of the Chinese New Year were obviously collectively misjudged: this is definitely not a fan movie that relies on fans to support the box office, but a popular movie of good quality.
"Sniper" rose more than 30% month-on-month, and the single-day box office has surpassed "Four Seas", for obvious reasons: Zhang Yimou.
The film broke 50 million in a single day more than the first day of the Chinese New Year, creating the best result since its release, and the five-day cumulative box office has exceeded the 200 million mark, and the counterattack has finally begun.
If it is said that from the beginning of the New Year, the market has shown a downward momentum, then after the opening of the Winter Olympic Games, why did the first five markets begin to improve?
Combined with the experience of the past Spring Festival stalls, there must be a dark horse counterattack, which constitutes a powerful core force of the market.
This year is indeed not as big dark horse as "Li Huanying" and "Red Sea Action", but whether it is "Killer" or "Sniper", it is definitely a dark horse.
It is these good-looking movies, in this "despised" Spring Festival slot, so that some audiences who were originally ready to "choose the best" to consume once at a high price finally entered the theater again and supported the box office in the later part of the Spring Festival slot.
Spring is finally back, though it may not be the spring of all Spring Festival films.
"The Killer" is not the best happy twist comedy, so what does its box office hit say?
At present, watching "Killer" has obviously become the biggest dark horse in the Spring Festival file.
Even the most optimistic predictors of the film in the Spring Festival file, such as me, could not guess that the film counterattack came so fiercely, breaking through 1.2 billion in only five days.
But professional film critics also questioned: "This is just a second-rate adaptation, a second-rate happy twist movie." Douban's 6.7 score also proves that professional fans do not think that this is a very powerful happy twist comedy.
So the question is, why is the film box office so turbulent?
To clarify this problem, we must first figure out, why do the audience watch movies during the Spring Festival?
One of the most common factors is to see the stars. The second is to watch the big scene. The third is to watch the topic movie and the empathy effect, that is, "everyone has watched this film, and I have to go to see it or I don't have to talk about it."
This explains why "Watergate Bridge" is the number one box office.
To be a star, it has Wu Jing Yi Yi Qianxi, it wants big scenes, and there are shocking big scenes shot by Xu Ke.
From the perspective of empathy, the film makes those troop numbers and warrior numbers that are far away from us become fuller, flesh-and-blood warriors. Completed the hero's biography for the Seventh Company.
In the documentary "Ice Blood Chosin Lake", a veteran soldier said this sentence: "People who are alive always feel a kind of regret." A lot of viewers don't understand what it means. But after seeing the final confrontation between Pinghe and Qianli, Mei Sheng finally rushed to the enemy camp and floated in the air, Yu Congrong's last roar, he understood. That's empathy.
Several big-selling elements of the film are occupied, it does not win the championship who wins?
But the Spring Festival stall also has a big selling factor, in this year's Spring Festival slot, only one movie can be completely satisfied, that is: Tu Yi Le.
Among the five live-action movies in this year's Spring Festival file, only "Killer" is a strong comedy genre. Although the Spring Festival stall has long ceased to be a single "family celebration" world, there have been too many word-of-mouth explosions in recent years, so that everyone has ignored the "basic plate" of the family comedy in the Spring Festival file.
In 2018, "Red Sea Action" counterattacked and won the championship, but in the same file, "Detective Chinatown 2", "To Catch a Demon 2", and "Journey to the West's Daughter Country" are all family comedies, and the box office is not bad.
In 2019, "The Wandering Earth" counterattacked, but "Crazy Alien" and "Flying Life" also did well at the box office.
In 2021, everyone remembers the family element of "Hello, Li Huanying", but "Hello, Li Huanying" is first of all a comedy and family celebration.
Now professional film critics complain that "The Killer" is filmed like a sketch collection, and Wei Xiang is also like a sketch, which is simply not ok.
But I would rather say: Like a sketch, isn't that right?
How can an audience who loves to watch comedy reject a qualified sketch made in the form of a movie with a godfather + the king of comedy with laughter and tears? After all, in the Spring Festival file, watching a movie is not an absolute need, but laughter is definitely the biggest need.
"The Killer" is indeed not the best happy twist comedy, but it can be called the overall funniest domestic comedy in the past two years, which is enough.
The last two suspense of the Spring Festival stall: Can "Miracle" create a miracle? "Sniper" really wants to be crowded?
The final suspense of the remaining Spring Festival slot lies in two films: "Miracle" and "Sniper".
From the box office point of view, neither of them is the current big winner, the former was the second in the first day, but the proportion of the first two rows of films fell from 21.4% to 14%, setting a record for the largest decline in the same period.
Not because the quality of the film is not good, but the temperament of the film is not satisfied in the Spring Festival file, "entrepreneurship" is inspirational, but "seeing a doctor" and poverty are tragic, such a high-reputation drama film, is doomed to be not pleasing enough.
The latter in the case of douban score first, five days of cumulative box office only broke 200 million, this is still in the audience to support the director Zhang Yimou under the premise of the realization, the Spring Festival two main theme war films to the audience type fatigue on the film box office impact is too large.
So strictly speaking, both films have chosen the wrong schedule, the former is obviously more suitable for the summer file accumulated by young audiences, and the latter is put into next year's May Day or National Day file, and the box office is more likely to have a role.
But I am still optimistic about two films that are miscarriaged, and the box office will continue to counterattack.
If nothing else, because they're all good movies.
Compared with "I Am Not a Medicine God", "Miracle" must lack some sharpness, which is true, but Wen Muye still maintains his own realistic commercial film route and standard.
The whole movie presents a warm and inspirational temperament, the emotional scenes are very moving, and the light comedy section can also make me smile.
Yi Qianxi, whose acting skills have been improving, the biggest shortcoming of the past few plays is that it is too tight, and this one has finally relaxed. Wen Muye is indeed still one of the most good at adjusting actors among domestic directors.
But the most moving thing is that Wen Muye photographed the suffering at the bottom and made fun in the suffering.
One of the scenes that touched me most about Miracles came after a storm.
Because of the inability to pay the rent of water and electricity, Jinghao's factory building was sublet by the landlord, the rainstorm struck, seeing that the inventory was about to end, the miracle squad arrived, packed the products into boxes, the heavy rain in the freight car, the future was uncertain, everyone was very happy, some people held mops, some knocked on the scrubbing Spider-Man's helmet, some people held warm water bottles, and sang "Sea Wide Sky".
Even if the film has such shortcomings, I still have to thank Wen Muye for his gentleness to us weedy little people, this kind of gentleness, which I have not seen for a long time.
"Sniper" is a limited scene, but it is very cool to watch.
This must be attributed to Zhang Yimou's almost flawless technical ability and strong genre film ability, even if the actors are newcomers, the cost is limited, he can still shoot 90 minutes of ups and downs, burning and tears.
Although the current box office is not prominent, but both are able to use word of mouth to take a long line of type, after opening the counterattack trend, both should be able to earn a higher box office than the Spring Festival after the Spring Festival, the question is only: two bullets shot at the post-Spring Festival file, can finally create a miracle?
Reflection on the Spring Festival stalls in the Year of the Tiger: The Spring Festival stalls just need to be less rigid, and the people's patience with high ticket prices is limited
For the Spring Festival stalls of the Year of the Tiger, the most worth summarizing is, of course, the high ticket price.
I can actually understand why there is this most expensive Spring Festival in history, for theaters, especially for small and medium-sized theaters in third- and fourth-tier cities, the Spring Festival file is simply a "straw for survival", especially in the case of the single-day box office of non-major theaters this year, the theater will inevitably rely more on the Spring Festival file.
But the goal of the Spring Festival theater should be to make the most money, and the right way to make money is not to increase the ticket price.
Because high ticket prices do not equal high box office, ticket prices multiplied by the number of viewers are the box office.
Just like the wedding banquet is expensive and useless, it is sold slightly more expensive than usual, and there are more people to eat, that is how much money is made.
Many people in the industry are blinded by the so-called big data, which tells us: after Star Ye's "Journey to the West" won 500 million box office in the Spring Festival in 2013, the next Spring Festival file, 1.449 billion, 1.81 billion, 3.082 billion, 3.419 billion, 5.771 billion, 5.905 billion, 7.843 billion.
In addition to 2020, which is absent due to the epidemic, the Spring Festival stall market is growing every year, and in recent years, the ticket price of the Spring Festival stall will rise slightly.
So a crazy and bold reasoning appeared: since the Spring Festival box office has been rising, and the audience has not run in the past few years, it is a little bigger this year, with an increase of 20%, an average of 60 tickets, and 150+ ticket prices for some movies, so it will not make a lot of money.
All are well calculated, only one point: in 2021 Chinese the average number of movies watched is 2.4, most of the people enter the cinema once a year, and the New Year is not necessary to watch movies.
Ticket prices rose slightly by 10%, more expensive is more expensive, but if I want to bleed heavily, even if I want to, so much offline entertainment is not fragrant?
Behind the crazy ticket price, a group of smart industry insiders mistakenly put the wealth code of the Spring Festival stall as an inexhaustible movie-going need.
But audiences need a lot of reasons to watch a movie, time, travel costs, theater services, film lead actors, directors, ratings...
Suffice it to look at one reason: the ticket price is too expensive.
To make matters worse, the habit of watching movies and watching movies during the Spring Festival is difficult to establish and easy to destroy. After the Spring Festival, the entire film industry is still facing huge pressure, and it does not matter if the theater Spring Festival file seizes the time to earn a ticket, the problem is that the future days are not enough?
Once the audience's frequency of viewing continues to decrease, is this counted as drinking doves to quench their thirst?
What's even more frightening is that drinking doves may not quench their thirst: the ticket price is moderate, the number of moviegoers has come up, and it doesn't earn more than it is now? What is the price increase chart?
No matter how high the ticket price is, there is no market, how can the film market return the blood? Blindly inflating the ticket price of the industry big coffee, such a simple primary school math problem will not be?
Judging from the market scheduling on the sixth day of the Chinese New Year, the proportion of single-day screenings of "The Water Gate Bridge of Chosin Lake" fell to more than 30%, and the advantage over the runner-up continued to narrow. The proportion of "Killer" rose slightly to 24.8% in a single day, and the box office will remain strong. "Miracle" rebounded to 14.6% in a single day, while "Sniper" rebounded to 9.5% in a single day, and the audience will always tell the theater what is the correct schedule.
Water can carry boats and can also overturn boats. Filmmakers make no mistake, the market is not anyone can turn the clouds and rain, no matter how big the big guy is, it is not big enough for the audience's choice.
Respect the audience, the audience will make you decent, do not respect the audience, the audience will make you laugh enough.
In the past few years, the Spring Festival ticket price has risen slightly, which does not mean that the ticket price increase this year is still a record-breaking, and the Spring Festival file is far from the time when the film party and the theater go sideways, but General Chang Weisi in "The Three-Body Problem" said it well: Human beings are too accustomed to taking many accidents as inevitable.
In the Spring Festival stall, the right choice should cultivate the audience, rather than harvesting the audience and finally losing the audience.
Of course, you feel that you are particularly bullish, you can ignore the laws of the market, that is also OK, but it is recommended that you first think clearly, your own movie, whether you have the ability to blossom in the ice and snow, so that the audience even if the ticket price is expensive, you have to support it.
After all, there is only one Zhang Yimou in China.