This article is from the WeChat public account: Table Appearance (ID: excel-ers), authors: Zhou Xiao, Wang Huimin, Editors: Fu Xiaoling, Min Zhi
On the last trading day of the year, Mango Super Media still ended in decline. Since the disclosure of the 2021Q4 performance forecast on January 21, it has fallen for 9 consecutive days.
The point of the market turmoil is that the forecast shows that the net profit of Mango Super Media 2021Q4 is only 0.6 billion yuan - 160 million yuan (its net profit in the first three quarters was 1.98 billion), which is not performing well.
But in fact, in the second half of last year, the entertainment industry was greatly reorganized, and the main business variety content was affected, and the performance of Mango Super Media Q4 was discounted, which was expected.
However, at that time, the market did not seem to be worried about this, and the stock price of Mango Super Media continued to rise against the trend.
Today, the financial data has landed, and there has been no serious deterioration; and the business has mango TV's effective membership reached 50.4 million, an increase of 40% year-on-year. As a result, the market is not optimistic.
So, what exactly is causing the valuation logic to reverse?
It is not a variety show to fight, but a pig on the wind outlet
Last year, various "collapsed" incidents in the entertainment industry had an overall impact on the long video industry for all to see. Mango Super Media has naturally also been greatly affected.
As shown in the following figure, since the second half of the year, artists from the network to satellite television have successively exploded, resulting in:
· Webcast variety show "Brother Who Cuts Through Thorns", multi-issue content, repeatedly removed from the shelf and re-cut, word of mouth is affected, and the cost is also under pressure;
The ace evergreen program "Happy Base Camp", in the "Clear Lang Action" and other policy winds downwards, due to the host's private morality, endorsements, gifts and other scandals continue, completely suspended;
Taiwan comprehensive "Every Day Upward", under the many adjustments and revisions, the influence declined.
However, the big production is crossed, the veteran variety show has withdrawn from history, although the loss is heavy, but this is a common problem in the industry, after all, other platforms are similar experiences.
If that's all, the market really doesn't have to worry too much.
However, "the house leaks even rainy" - in the fourth quarter, the hematopoietic and transfusion capabilities of the mango super media variety show were not ideal.
In terms of hematopoiesis, 2021Q1-Q4, the number of new variety shows broadcast on the platform is quite a lot, but in addition to the heat of "Brother with Thorns" (which has not been pressed), most of the other half, you may not have heard of.
That is to say, last year's new variety show of Mango Super Media was absent in terms of explosive models. This means that its ability to continue to produce blockbusters has been loosened.
On the blood transfusion, it can be seen that many of the N generations have gradually shown "old state".
As shown in the following figure, "Longing for Life", "Wife's Romantic Trip", etc., the Douban score and the number of ratings are decreasing every year, and many of the ratings this year have reached below the passing line.
The new variety show did not run out of the explosion, the comprehensive N generation could not move blood, and the status of the mango super media variety brother was somewhat unstable.
In 2016, in the top ten self-made variety shows broadcast on the whole network, Mango TV could account for four places, nearly half. However, in 2021, according to the 2021Q3 variety show popularity list of Yunhe Data, Mango TV only has "Brother With Thorns" in the top ten.
Traffic performance changes, and advertisers' choices change.
According to the data in the first half of 2021, the number of merchants of Mango TV's single variety show decreased by 0.8 compared with the same period of the previous year; in contrast, Aiyouteng increased compared with the same period of the previous year.
As far as the key variety shows broadcast by Mango Super Media in the fourth quarter are concerned, the number of sponsors of the most sponsored "Night in Greater Wan Chai" is only 8, less than one-fifth of "Lang Sister 1".
The core proposition of the platform's own variety show explosion has gone wrong, and even affected the performance income. Such a shift should logically attract the attention of the market and have negative feedback on valuations.
But as mentioned above, at this time, the market is enthusiastic about the stock price of Mango Super Media. So, why is that?
The answer is: it has become a pig on the wind outlet.
In September last year, Facebook changed its name to Meta and made a big move into the metaverse, driving the popularity of the metacosm. Under the fever of the market, as long as it is related to the meta-universe, it can "ascend to heaven".
For example, Hubei Radio and Television, which has lost money for two consecutive years and the number of users is still losing, is regarded as a "meta-universe" concept and is sought after only because its company involves VR/AR technology.
As shown in the chart below, since the beginning of December last year, after 6 consecutive stops of Hubei Radio and Television, the stock price has continued to rise.
Mango Super Media is similar, in early November announced cooperation with China Mobile to explore the construction of Mango "meta-universe" news out, the stock price closed up 6.89% on the day, and then continued to rise.
But there is no intrinsic value support, and when the wind stops, it still has to fall.
At the beginning of this year, the heat of the meta-universe declined, the stock price pulled back, and Mango Super Media and Hubei Radio and Television also fell.
After the market returned to rationality, the value judgment of Mango Super Media returned to the expected value of the business itself. There is also a 2021Q4 performance forecast, and the market votes with its feet.
However, as far as the data is concerned, unlike the advertising business involved in variety shows, which is not as expected, the membership business of Mango Super Media has exceeded expectations.
So, what impact does this have on the platform's value judgment? Let's move on to the analysis.
Increase the number of episodes, but the economics of the ROI are questionable
All along, Mango Super Media has focused on young urban women, and the platform values the consumption power and monetization potential of this group. The success of previous variety shows and performance also confirms the certainty of the strategy.
But now, things have changed.
As we explained in the article "The Transmutation of "Entertainment to Death": Stealing that Old World", the rise of short videos and secondary content has seriously impacted the MAU, DAU and user duration of long video content.
Among them, the variety show with the weakest sense of plot is the most affected.
Sun Zhonghuai, vice president of Tencent, once said at the 2021 China Network Audiovisual Conference: The language variety show is two hours long, but the basic positive film is broadcast for 10 minutes, and the essence of the clips is all over the network.
Based on this, in the past two years, the cumulative overall effective playback of variety shows across the network has shown a downward trend (as shown in the following figure).
Mango TV, which focuses on variety shows, will undoubtedly be most affected. In addition, the proportion of female users of Mango TV has exceeded 70%, close to the ceiling. At this time, insisting on relying on the development of variety shows on one leg, the space is limited.
Realizing this, Mango became more active in the development of the series.
In August 2021, Mango Super Media said in an institutional survey that the company is transferring its variety advantages to dramas, and currently has more than 20 drama producer teams, which will grow to 40 to 50 in the next 2 years.
Specific to the content, it can be seen that Mango Super Media has begun to please male users.
In 2021, Mango TV launched the Monsoon Theater, which explores multiple realist themes such as urban workplace, family emotions, and suspense with a "non-genre" theater.
Among the six dramas that have been broadcast, there are four suspense and criminal investigation themes that are more in line with the preferences of male users. At the same time, in the 2022 episode schedule, the number of suspense categories also accounts for the highest proportion, even far more than Aiyouteng.
However, many things cannot be done well if you think well.
Judging from the internal results, the four suspense dramas that have been broadcast are generally popular; at the same time, in addition to the Douban score of "Wolf Hunter" of 7.3, "Lie True Detective", "Twelfth Second", and "Tianmu Crisis" are all below the passing line.
In terms of external competition, according to the "2021 Serial Network Broadcast Performance and User Analysis Report", among the top 20 of the 2021Q3 serial drama effective broadcast list, Mango TV has only 2, and both are broadcast.
In contrast, iQiyi accounted for 13 films, 6 solo broadcasts; Tencent Video 13 films, 5 solo broadcasts; Youku 6 films, solo broadcast 1.
In addition to the unsatisfactory quality of the series, Mango Super Media is also facing uneconomical production costs.
Previously, Mango Super Media relied on its own artist resources and self-control capabilities to form an industrial chain operation model, which controlled the cost of variety show production very well.
However, after increasing the production of film and television series, we can see that 2021H1 is 2020H1 year-on-year, and the content cost has increased significantly; in the same period, iQiyi's content cost has decreased year-on-year.
The reason for this is that iQiyi, which cut into the self-made network drama very early, and Mango Super Media in the variety show, relying on the industrial chain operation mode to compress production costs, has also achieved a certain "film and television industrialization" in the production of the series - from machine selection, format selection, to the process production of the later trial effect, clear planning, and effectively control costs.
But even so, iQiyi is still losing money. And mango super media to increase the size of such a money-burning track, in the short term ROI, can be described as extremely uncertain.
In this way, the single quarter of the membership business has exceeded expectations, and the value of the platform is limited
brief summary
Mango Super Media's 2021Q4 performance forecast disclosure caused a commotion in the market.
In fact, this kind of commotion should have been reflected in the fourth quarter of last year - at that time, Mango Super Media was affected by the collapse of artists and the sudden tightening of supervision, and at the same time, it also faced the problem of poor variety shows and affecting the effect of investment promotion.
However, due to standing on the "outlet" of the meta-universe, Mango Super Medium became a flying pig, and the stock price soared against the trend.
But when the wind stops, the rational market is restored, and the value judgment of Mango Super Media returns to the expected value of the business itself. In the performance forecast, such as the advertising business with poor expectations and the member business with uncertainty in the ROI, it is obvious that they cannot support the confidence of the market, and there is a late voting with the foot.