Author/Pot wrapped meat under the stars
Edit/Spinach Starry Sky
Typography/Fried liver under the stars
Before the festival team building, we went to play a game of script killing (). We played hardcore reasoning, and after five or six hours, everyone's brain cells were basically burned out. But the overall feeling, it was not bad. In addition to relaxing, you can not only strengthen team building, but also exercise your brain and pick up all the primary school mathematics.
So, what is script killing?
As the name suggests, the player has a script in his hand, and one person (or more) of them is a murderer. Everyone's task is to discuss the facts of the case, find out the murderer, and restore the story. In the process of reasoning, there must be a DM (host) to prevent everyone from deviating from thinking and correcting errors in time. At the same time, appropriate hints are given to promote the progress of the game.
Of course, if your friends don't like this kind of brain-burning game, it doesn't matter, there are emotional classes that are good to cry, happy to be funny, and horror to be scary.
In general, it is both entertaining, social, and even dating (it is said that this has become the main reason for contemporary young people to play script killing), which is suitable for all. Especially among young people, demand is booming.
Where there is demand, there must be a market. According to ai media consulting data, in 2021 and 2022, it is predicted that the scale of the script killing market will reach 17.02 and 23.89 billion yuan.
So, what about script killing this industry? Who earned the money in the tens of billions of markets? How big a cake will be taken from the Chinese script killer Mango Super Media (300413) after cutting into offline stores in 2021?
First, does the script kill the store to make money?
What everyone cares about most is to open a script to kill the store to make money?
On this issue, we also interviewed the stores we went to play in, and did not get specific financial data. But it doesn't matter, take this store as an example, let's do the math.
Estimated, do not consider when the fixed investment such as decoration and script will be returned, from the perspective of variable costs alone, the monthly income of 50,000 can basically maintain breakeven.
Look at the revenue side.
The unit price of this shopkeeper is 88 yuan, and the script kills 4-10 people per game. Reasonable estimation of the store's income should be around 500 yuan / bureau. That is to say, as long as you can guarantee that you can open more than 100 rounds every month, you will have to earn.
Script killing is generally hot on weekends and dismal weekdays. According to the store, it can open 9-10 books a day on weekends. In this way, the working day is guaranteed to be 1-2 rounds. This requirement is not high for stores with 7 rooms and a single-day ceiling of 14 rounds (two time slots in the afternoon and evening), right?
Not high, the profit imagination space is quite objective. But it may not be possible.
1. No differentiated competition
This industry has two major characteristics. First, there is basically no threshold. Second, there is basically no difference.
There is no entry threshold for a profitable industry, and the results can be imagined, and there will inevitably be a pile-up effect. In 2019, there were 2,400 script killing stores nationwide. By April 2021, it had risen to 45,000!
Source: Yuekai Securities
From the customer's point of view, there is no difference in which one to go to.
Customers play script killing mainly pick script, pick DM, look at store location and price.
Image source: Yuekai Securities
First of all, from the perspective of the script, the script is divided into three categories: boxed books, city-limited books (each city generally only sells three stores), and exclusive books (only one store is sold in each city). The latter two can be obtained in the minority. And the boxed book, especially some of the evaluation is not bad, each store basically has.
Second, on the issue of DM, the store does not have any competitiveness, and the customer recognizes the people. When people go away, the customer is gone. And some good DM is likely to take your customers to another stove and become competitors instead.
Third, as for the location and price of the store, it directly determines the cost and revenue. In the case of the store we went to play, the pricing was significantly lower than the average in the city, but this price war also compressed the profit margin accordingly.
Nowadays, Beijing has opened more than 4,000 script killing shops (data on a review), and it is not easy to ensure that 1-2 rounds are stable on weekdays. It can be seen that the store is likely to be in the middle of a loss.
2. Script piracy
Script killing this industry, there is a fatal problem - piracy.
As I mentioned earlier, there are three categories of ben. The price of cheap boxed books is around 500 yuan, and the price of city limited books and exclusive books is thousands or even tens of thousands. And the script killing shop is less than dozens of scripts. Therefore, buying and updating is a big expense.
This gave birth to the pirated version of the industrial chain. Dozens of pieces in a box, there is not much difference in the user experience. However, the sharp decline in the unit price of customers has forced many genuine stores to close.
On this issue, we also specifically asked the store how to do, and the reply was that there was no way, all by self-awareness.
3. Online impact offline
In addition, there is a form that is cheaper than playing the pirate version, that is, online script killing. Under the epidemic, the accelerated script killing has gone from offline to online.
In this mode, the time and place are flexible, and a person can play if he wants, even without paying or considering the fight. At the same time, it also has a dating function. Although you can't run, you can online dating, and you can cross the city.
However, the online script kills, there is no host guidance, the level of players, the quality of the script is also uneven, so it can not completely replace the offline.
Online and offline have their own advantages and disadvantages, but there is no doubt that the birth of online script killing has provided customers with a new choice.
Second, who has earned the 10 billion market?
Under competition, even vicious competition, it is difficult to make money by killing shops in today's scripts. So who earned this tens of billions of markets?
This problem can actually be seen from the cost of the store. The first three parts, one is the rent, to the landlord; the second is the DM, which promotes social employment; the third is the script, which is divided up by the author, the distributor, and an e-commerce platform that is often ignored.
1. Creator
Briefly introduce the script to kill this industrial chain. The upstream author writes the book and sells it to the distributor. There are two ways to buy and sell, one is to sell out, and the other is to share. The ratio is about three or seven or four or six, and the issuer takes the big head.
At the level of creators, there has always been the myth of getting rich overnight.
Taking the 2019 annual blockbuster "Annual Ring" as an example, it is said that nearly 10,000 copies have been sold, with a unit price of about 500 yuan. Even if the author takes 30%, there are 1.5 million! envy.
(We played, not bad, is to count the head bald)
However, this level can only be looked up.
According to the data of the little black detective (e-commerce platform, introduced later), the script that will be launched on its platform in 2020 will have an average single sales of about 30,000. 30% is less than 10,000 pieces.
Source: Centaline Securities
So you say creators make money? earn. However, under the law of two and eight, most of the money taken away is in the hands of a small number of people.
2. Issuer
At the distributor's link, after getting the script, it will be processed and packaged, promoted and printed. Then, through the exhibition or e-commerce platform, the script is sold to the terminal store.
Issuers take most of the profit share, but the current industry may not be as profiteering as we think.
First, while the cost of script production may not be high, the distributor needs to be responsible for publicity. For example, to participate in the exhibition to pay tickets, and then to advertise in a red book and other channels. The more competitive the industry, the higher the publicity cost.
second. Today, the industry is in a stage of blossoming. Its problem is similar to that of terminal stores, there is no barrier to entry. If someone makes money, it will lead to competition.
For issuers, the ultimate success or failure depends on two factors. The first is how many authors can be bound and how much high-quality content can be obtained. The second is how much financial strength there is and how much promotion can be done.
It is foreseeable that in the future, this industry will most likely form an oligopoly pattern. What can stand out is the large platform supported by capital.
3. E-commerce platform
Downstream, an important channel for script trading is through the e-commerce platform. From the perspective of the entire industry chain, this link is the most easily ignored, but it is most likely to make money lying down.
Scripts sold through e-commerce platforms generally require a 10%-15% drawdown. The most critical thing is that there are few well-known platforms in the entire industry. Among them, the little black detective and GoDan are definitely the head players. According to the interview store, the scripts are basically purchased through these two platforms in the circle.
Through enterprise investigation and inquiry, in July last year, Shanghai Yuwen had become the third largest shareholder of Xiaohei Detective. Behind it, there are Tencent Investment and Reading Group (00772).
Source: Qi Cha Cha
Such a relationship is quite interesting. The core competitiveness of Reading is that it binds many high-quality authors, and cooperating with Little Black Detective can accelerate the commercialization of high-quality content. From the perspective of the little black detective, connecting the author through reading the text, in the future, it may even directly replace the role of the publisher.
In general, the link between the midstream issuer and the e-commerce platform has not yet formed a final pattern. However, it is bound to gradually build a scale barrier, and the strong are always strong.
Third, mango super media down, the industry pattern changes
Script killing this industry, the prospect is broad, the imagination space is huge. However, the entry threshold is low, especially in downstream stores, and there is basically no core competitiveness. And in this link, customers recognize the script and recognize the DM, but they do not recognize the brand. So it's theoretically hard to run out of the faucet.
But now, that has changed a bit.
On April 30, 2021, Mango Super Media (300413) offline script killing store M-CITY opened in Changsha. During the May Day period, the passenger flow was 900+, and the total revenue exceeded the sum of the monthly income of other script killing stores in Changsha.
It can be seen that M-CITY's advantages in the script killing industry are absolutely crushing. So, why?
Do you know how script killing is on fire? This kind of game first originated in Europe, and really entered China in 2016, when Mango Super Media launched a variety show - "Star Detective". Its popularity has directly spawned the script killing industry.
It can be said that the star detective is the vast majority of players, playing the original intention of the script to kill. M-CITY, which is equivalent to creating an experience hall of star detectives offline. According to the 2021 interim report of Mango Super Media, M-CITY has become a new landmark for Changsha's internet celebrities to punch cards.
In the future, M-CITY will continue to land in Shanghai, Chengdu, Haikou and other cities. With the inherent brand effect, wherever M-CITY goes, it will have a serious impact on the local script killing stores.
However, at present, M-CITY is just getting started, and its contribution to the performance of Mango Super Media is minimal. There is also uncertainty about where the future holds. For example, how long can the popularity of the star detective last? How long can player enthusiasm last? From the perspective of M-CITY Changsha store, its pricing is obviously high. Once players' enthusiasm for Ming Detective dissipates, will M-CITY be able to provide an experience comparable to the price?
If you want to form a trend of fire in this industry, it is not enough to rely on the feelings of players.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.