Image source @ Visual China
In the appearance of the |, the author | Zhou Xiao, and the editor | Fu Xiaoling Mu
On April 25, Mango Super Media released its 2022 quarterly report, and on the data, the operating income fell by 22% year-on-year, and the net profit fell by 34% year-on-year, which is still a bottoming trend.
However, for this "poor student" financial report, the capital market has scored high marks.
It can be seen that the stock of Mango Super Media on the 25th and 26th has bucked the trend with two yang lines, rising by 7.5%, while the market fell by as much as 8.5% in the same period.
In contrast, iQiyi and Netflix, who are also poor students, are falling all the way and show no signs of stopping.
So, why is there only "poor" mango, favored by capital against the trend?
01 The "year-on-year growth game" pulled by traffic has been tried and tested
The financial data is still in negative growth, but the stock price is rising against the trend, which may be closely related to the key programs announced in the financial report: "Sound is endless", "LangJie 3" and other key variety shows will be launched in 2022Q2.
This seems to be "boasting", but in fact there is a foundation support.
When the explosive variety shows continue and the drainage effect is extraordinary, Mango Super Media can get the advertisers to "send money". For example, "Sister Lang 1" has nearly 40 sponsors, and "Sister Lang 2" has as many as 15.
However, once there was a problem with the sustainability of the blockbuster, advertisers quickly retreated.
In terms of last year, the explosive model of "Brother Who Cut Through Thorns" was scheduled to be held down due to "collapsed room", and other new variety shows were basically in a state of dud fire; while old variety shows such as "Star Detective 7" were dragged down by the supervision of the entertainment industry and could not be picked up.
There is no explosive model can not recruit advertisers, 2021 Mango super media performance fell sharply, sliding a year of slide.
In 2022, the situation has changed sharply.
On the one hand, the new variety show "Sound and Endless" looks like it will be "supported".
Baidu heat index shows that "Sound and Life" exceeded 100,000 heat values on the day of broadcasting, and it was close to 120,000 the next day, which was quite the style of "Sister 1" that year.
On the other hand, "Sister 3", "Brother 2", "Ming Detective 7", "Longing for Life 6", etc. or postponed, or newly established old blockbusters, will appear one after another.
Moreover, many of these variety shows have already attracted wealth.
For example, statistics show that the "Sound and Life" project has won nine title sponsorships; "Detective 7" has also been sponsored by 7 sponsors, and the subsequent advertising investment of "Longing for Life 6" and "Lang Jie 3" also has experience in guaranteeing the bottom.
According to the minutes of the meeting: "Sister" and "Brother" are currently the highest-priced projects, compared with last year' increase, and the price of "Sound and Life" is not low.
That is, not only do ads become more numerous, but the price is not low. Under such certainty of realization, everyone's expectations are inevitably optimistic.
For example, Mango Super Media itself said in the conference call: The company is very confident in variety shows this year, and Q2 and Q3 will have stronger performances than before.
However, there is no problem with the supply of variety shows, and there is also a factor to consider, that is, the downward environment suppresses the advertiser's budget.
In this piece, mango super media is quite a bit of "goose plucking", and the arrangement is clear. According to its financial report:
Last year, several head advertisers, especially the dairy industry, achieved contrarian growth, and this year will also strengthen benign cooperation with the platform, and the company will do content implantation, marketing and offline derivatives for them...
The business model of Damang e-commerce has run out, some small and medium-sized customers have no money to invest in big variety shows, will cooperate with Damang, and this year's Revenue of Damang is expected to exceed 100 million yuan.
With abundant pipelines and exhaustive strategies, Mango Super Media in 2022 is indeed very "rebound imagination" on the income side.
And we found that this situation is not an isolated case this year, but a cyclical performance release deliberately designed by Mango Super Media.
As shown in the figure below, combing through the online time of the phenomenon-level variety show, we can see that Mango Super Media will never play the explosive variety show in the same quarter for two consecutive years.
Remarks: "Rap Listen to Me 2" S-class production, the popularity is low, not a phenomenon.
In general, such a scheduling arrangement will produce the effect of "the next year is a significant increase compared with the previous year".
And this is indeed verified in terms of financial data. In the chart below, in each blockbuster season, revenue is "reversed" growth, and the net interest rate is the same.
Then the year-on-year growth in performance increased significantly, spurring every round of boosts to stock prices.
That is, the capital market is happy to accompany Mango Super Media in this cycle game of "traffic pulling and excess growth".
This time, Mango will be "quasi-phenomenon" "sound and endless" and "sister 3" and "brother 2" concentrated in Q2-Q3, just in the same period of 2021 only "Rap 2" and the popularity is average, "year-on-year game" is afraid that it will reappear in the financial report.
Investors who know their way have begun to rub their fists early, and there has been a sharp rise in the stock price mentioned at the beginning.
02 Long video platform, selling members is not as good as selling ads?
Although the above analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between the rebound against the trend and the abundance of pipelines. However, in terms of the 2022 episode reserve, Mango TV is not dominant.
In the chart below, the quantity is not as good as iQiyi and Tencent Video, and the content quality is at the bottom.
So, why is it that Mango can buck the trend just by relying on the un-online variety show, while Aiyouteng has repeatedly proved itself, but it is still not welcome?
The root cause is still the business model: Mango super media revenue mainly relies on advertising; while Aiyotengnai takes the subscription model, and the revenue mainly depends on user subscription payment.
In the membership model, users buy services, and there is a "gold lord" mentality: the platform must monopolize resources and the content quality is good enough to pay. On the other hand, the cultivation of payment habits by domestic users is a long-term process in itself.
As a result, the platform needs to cultivate the ability to "continue to build blockbusters" to attract and retain users.
For example, whenever iQiyi has a hit, MAU will be greatly boosted, and the number of subscribers will also peak year-on-year. However, as soon as the popularity of explosive content falls, the payment rate will be affected.
Under such monetization characteristics, the platform is easy to fall into the crisis of "no explosive model, immediate decline in revenue".
In contrast, Mango Variety users are watching "hilarity" and are accustomed to interstitial advertising, and the real sponsored content production is a group of advertisers.
For example, Mango Super Media 2022Q1 Conference Call also mentioned that Mango's business model is a very stable way, and advertising is a very necessary business model that cannot be abandoned at present.
Therefore, even if the content is not good enough, the user leaves, and it will not quickly threaten the platform's revenue in the short term. This is reflected in the data as the incomplete synchronization of MAU and operating income growth.
Moreover, from the perspective of the monetization chain, finding a good advertiser and then shooting is a hammer deal, even if the ratings are not ideal, the money has been really earned; and under the subscription model, once there are signs of "bad tail", users may no longer renew, and revenue will be directly affected.
Above, through the comparison of the demand side, we found that in the field of long video, the subscription payment business like Aiyouteng has higher requirements for the ability to continue to create explosive models.
However, from Lu Han's "Shanghai Fortress", Wong Kar-wai's "Ferryman", to Chen Kun Nini's "Tiansheng Long Song", to Xiao Zhan Yangzi's "Please Give More Advice for the Rest of Your Life", the investor's money is spent a lot, even if there is a top stream, old drama bones, and the production of tiantuan bonuses, the overturning, the paste, and the bad reviews are still the same.
These experiences and facts tell us that it is difficult for film and television drama content creation to truly grasp the "traffic password", which is more difficult to produce and higher in production costs.
This is also why long video platforms under the paid model rely heavily on IP. For example, in the context of increasingly fierce competition, Disney, which has big IP series such as Princess and Marvel, is more resistant to falling than Netflix.
For variety productions, there is a "routine" - stars are traffic, nostalgia is the topic, and Mango Super Media has tried and tried again and again with this set of "traffic codes".
"Sister Riding the Wind and Waves" is the debut artist re-draft, the latest out of the circle of "Sound and Endless" is still taking nostalgic Hong Kong music as a gimmick, the audience still buys it.
The contrast between the two also makes Mango Super Media enjoy a lower cost in content production, whether it is gross profit margin or net profit margin, which is higher than the number one player in domestic long video - iQiyi.
As a result, users look hilarious, advertisers take exposure, the platform makes money, and the business model of Mango Super Media is actually the first to run through than Aiyoutengnai.
For the capital market, no matter how well the story is told, the core lies in whether it can make money, and aiyouteng has bitterly filmed word-of-mouth dramas such as "The World of Man" and "The Beginning", and it is not as good as mango's gold absorption by relying on the "small fresh meat, old drama bones" show, which is the essential reason for the gap between the two.
03 Summary
Mango, which has been dormant for a year due to pipeline and scheduling problems, seems to be "supported" in 2022 with the smooth scheduling of "Sound and Life", "Sister 3" and "Brother 2".
Only with the un-online variety show, it can rise against the trend, and behind the mango super media that makes Aiyouteng's eyes red, there is an essential difference in the business model of the two.
Of course, in the downward environment, the advertiser budget is suppressed, and it will inevitably have a certain impact on the advertising revenue of Mango Super Media.
But in any case, when Aiyouteng is still mired in the quagmire of profitability, the current capital market is obviously more optimistic about the mango super media that has run through the model and can really earn money.