Financial Associated Press (Shenzhen, reporter Zhou Xiaoya) news, "do not suffer from people do not know themselves, suffer from their inability to also." After experiencing successive drawdowns in product performance and the loss of trading decision-making authority, veteran Wu Chuanyan quoted anAlects in the Four Seasons Report to encourage himself.
In the past year, value investing has been repeatedly broken, and "reflection" has become the keyword of the four seasons report. Wu Chuanyan believes that it is necessary to examine the investment logic in the long-term dimension, and examine the individual stocks, styles and investment strategies.
In the case of "short-term failure", it is not easy to adhere to the long-term value investment style, as of the end of last year, the asset size under management of Wu Chuanyan fell back to 29.9 billion yuan, down nearly 40% from 49.2 billion yuan at the beginning of 2021.
He admits that whether it is an investment manager or an investor in a fund, the investment itself has high requirements for professionalism, thinking mode and personal belief. It is difficult to make satisfactory predictions for the market in the next 1-2 quarters, and it is relatively optimistic to hold expectations for the next 1 quarter, and it feels that the trough is or has passed.
From the perspective of position changes, he still maintains a high position operation as a whole, but the concentration of the portfolio has decreased, and Hongde Zhuoyuan, which is jointly managed with Yu Haocheng, has included Tencent Holdings in the top ten heavy stocks; Hengrui Pharmaceutical is still the first heavy stock of his 6 products; In addition, the former favorite Luxshare Precision has once again entered the top ten heavy stocks, and Vanke A is also quietly laying out.
Overall reduction of combinatorial concentration
"In the fourth quarter, in a market that did not match our existing investment style for the fourth quarter, the Fund's investment also faced some special and significant tests." At the beginning of the four-quarter report, Wu Chuanyan admitted that the situation in 2021 continues to exceed expectations, and it is still difficult to make satisfactory predictions for the market performance in the next 1-2 quarters.
Faced with a market situation that is not compatible with his investment style, he chose to reduce the concentration of his portfolio in the fourth quarter to cope with market risks.
Taking Hongde's visionary return as an example, as of the end of 2021, the fund's top ten heavy stocks accounted for a total of 65.94% of the fund's net asset value, down nearly 10 percentage points from 74.99% in the previous quarter.
However, he stressed that the reduction in the concentration of the portfolio is based on the premise of adhering to the logic of long-term investment.
From the overall position point of view, among the 6 products in which he is the fund manager, except for Hongde Fengze, which is about to expire during the closed period, and Hongde Zhiyuan, which is mixed with partial debt, the rest maintain a high stock position of about 93%.
Internet manufacturers have newly entered the top ten heavy positions
With the addition of Yu Hao as a fund manager in the third quarter of last year, Hongde Zhuoyuan, which was jointly managed by him and Wu Chuanyan, has undergone major changes, and the Internet giant Tencent Holdings has newly entered the top ten heavy stocks of the fund.
Hongde Zhuoyuan 2021 4th Quarter Report
Specifically, compared with the previous three quarters, Tencent Holdings and Luxun Precision have newly entered the ranks of the top ten heavy stocks of the product, and Cinda Bio and Haidilao have withdrawn. Since the fourth quarter, Tencent Holdings has been in a volatile market, and as of yesterday, the stock has gained 4.49%. Under the overall strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market yesterday, Tencent Holdings rose more than 6% on the day to 471.6.
Tencent Holdings' core business competitiveness and sustainable development momentum are also optimistic about the market, since this year, CITIC Securities, GF Securities, Everbright Securities and other 6 securities companies have given the stock a buy rating.
Among them, CITIC Securities adjusted the target price of Tencent Holdings in 2022 to HK$554 (the original target price was HK$613), but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of tightening anti-monopoly, game and other policies and regulations affecting operations, and the company's gross profit margin in the fourth quarter is expected to be 41.1%.
Another new heavy stock, Lixun Precision, was Wu Chuanyan's previous favorite, and in the hongde vision return he managed, he had held Luxshare Precision for 15 consecutive quarters, but sharply reduced its holdings in the first quarter of last year.
Compared with the third quarter, Luxshare Precision in the fourth quarter newly entered the top ten heavy stocks of the 3 funds managed by Wu Chuanyan, such as Hongde Zhuoyuan, Hongde Zhenyuan and Hongde Vision Return.
At the same time, in the ranks of hongde Fengrun's heavy stocks, the number of shares held by Lixun Precision in the fourth quarter remained unchanged from the previous quarter, still 12.4 million shares, ranking from 10th to 8th.
After a heavy decline in the first quarter of last year and a consolidation in the second quarter, Luxshare Precision rebounded in the second half of last year. As of yesterday, the stock has risen more than 30% since the fourth quarter.
The persistence of the pharmaceutical stock
In the case of the overall position concentration reduction, Hengrui Pharmaceutical is still the largest heavy stock of Hongde Vision Return, and as of the end of the fourth quarter, it has held the stock for 25 quarters.
Hongde Vision Returns Q4 2021 Report
Compared with the previous quarter, the number of shares held by Hongde Vision in Hengrui Pharmaceutical decreased from 9.1161 million shares to 6.2997 million shares, and the proportion of the fund's net asset value was reduced from 9.91% to 7.91%.
In the past four quarters, the overall stock price of Hengrui Pharmaceutical has not changed significantly, with a cumulative increase of 1.58%. However, since the beginning of this year, with the overall trend of pharmaceutical stocks diverge, Hengrui Pharmaceutical's stock price has fallen by nearly 10% year-to-date.
However, since the beginning of the year, 2 selling institutions have a bullish attitude towards Hengrui Pharmaceutical. Mainly due to the fact that two Class 1 innovative drugs under Hengrui Pharmaceutical were approved for listing at the end of last year, the above institutions believe that with the increasing enrichment of the company's product pipeline and the gradual opening of the R&D commercialization chain, the company's performance can be expected in the future.
Real estate stocks are re-laid out
Vanke A is also once again listed in the top ten heavy stocks of Hongde Vision Returns. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, Vanke A was one of the invisible heavy stocks with Hongde Vision's returns, but by the end of June 2021, the stock was "one-click liquidation" and did not appear in all shareholding details.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall real estate stocks have warmed up, and the real estate sector once led the market. As of yesterday, Vanke A has risen nearly 12% this year. Judging from the disclosed quarterly reports, Wind data shows that the overall stock market value of public funds in the real estate sector is currently 10.024 billion yuan, and in addition to the Hongde Fund, there are 15 institutions holding Vanke A.
Judging from the seller's research report, since the beginning of the year, 4 securities companies have given a "buy" rating to Vanke A, and 1 institution holds a "highly recommended" rating.
In addition, Guangguang Media also rose from the 7th largest heavy stock in the third quarter of Hongde Vision to the 4th largest heavy stock in the fourth quarter, with 22.3699 million shares.
"Reflection" is a key word
In a capital market dominated by economic transformation to create investment value, it is more difficult to judge the future performance of the market and individual stocks from the short-term dimension. Wu Chuanyan believes that such a moment requires a long-term perspective to examine the investment logic.
He focuses more on companies that generate long-term cash flow than on projects that generate short-term profits. "Looking at the company from this perspective, long-term logic has repeatedly confirmed that if we can expect it to have no major flaws, when its stock price performance is lower than expected, we need to be very determined to strengthen confidence."
However, specific investments still face greater tests. In his view, whether it is an investment manager or an investor in a fund, the investment itself has high requirements for professionalism, thinking mode and personal beliefs.
From the perspective of thinking mode, in investment, if you form the habit of continuous reflection, you are actually building your own inherent competitiveness. "This is also a very important criterion for us to select listed companies."
Regardless of how the external environment and industry trends change, enterprises can focus on building the inherent ability to adapt to the long-term development trend of the industry, correct them in a timely manner when decision-making is wrong, and maintain vigilance and self-reflection on various problems in the development process.
After this ability accumulation reaches the critical point, the performance of the enterprise will be out of touch with the external expectations and boundaries of the entire macro economy and the industry, and it will have the resilience of long-term growth.
He believes that China has produced a number of enterprises with a continuous and deep self-reflection spirit, and when the market is in an unfavorable environment, investment needs to maintain a firm belief in such enterprises, and this belief also requires continuous deep self-reflection.
In his view, the current environment is both a challenge and an opportunity for self-evolution. "In such a situation, based on past practice, we make relatively optimistic expectations for the market in the coming quarter, and feel that the trough is or has passed." He said.