"The lonely things are hidden decently!" Yinhua Fund Li Xiaoxing 4,000 words to go long article, the fourth quarter to increase the warehouse liquor, because saw these "positive signals"

Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Chen Junling) news, "Lonely things are hidden very decently! Tonight, Li Xiaoxing, who is called "the most dedicated fund manager" by investors, once again wrote investment experience and workplace insights with more than 5,000 words in the 2021 four seasons report.

"In the blink of an eye, I am about to enter the eighth year of portfolio management, many of the small partners who have entered the industry together have slowly faded out, and I have gone from being considered a public offering manager who is unlikely to be able to do long at the beginning to now being considered a public offering manager who looks like a long one." Li Xiaoxing said.

Thousands of words are sprinkled with foreign language, which not only quotes the scriptures, but also expresses the chest directly. In the "2022 Message" session, Li Xiaoxing, who has passed the "year of confusion", revealed that as long as "physical conditions permit" and performance can be "maintained above the expected level" in the future, he will continue to work.

"Moss flowers are as small as rice, but also learn peonies to bloom"

In the fourth quarter of 2021, in the high-prosperity industry of science and technology, new energy and semiconductors as a whole still have a certain increase, but there is a shock trend, and some leading companies rise first and then fall; high-end consumption as a whole stabilizes upwards, and some pharmaceutical core assets have certain adjustments.

"We maintain a high position, technology, consumption and value allocation is relatively balanced, focusing on the allocation of new energy, food and beverage, medicine, banking and other industries, selecting high-growth stocks in high-prosperity industries." In the report, Li Xiaoxing revealed his latest operation in the fourth quarter.

Li Xiaoxing believes that the main macroeconomic pressure in 2021 comes from three aspects: one is the pressure of the real estate market transmission; the second is that infrastructure investment is less than expected; and the third is the recurrence of the epidemic. However, under the relatively loose liquidity, the secondary market still creates positive returns for investors.

"Moss flowers are as small as rice, and they also learn to bloom peonies." The secondary market is fair, each type of asset will have its own performance time, excellent companies no matter how big or small, as long as the performance continues to cash, will eventually be recognized by the market, it is only a matter of time.

Imagine that at the end of 2020, core assets are the focus of everyone's attention, "long slope thick snow" is the keyword that appears most in the investor population, and the valuation of many high-quality companies with a general growth center in the future performance growth center has been pushed to a historical high.

Li Xiaoxing believed at the time that the long-term growth of these companies and their leading edge in the industry have not changed, but the excessive valuation will take some time to resolve, and for the vast majority of them, 2021 is a year to digest the valuation.

In less than a year, the focus on core assets has changed from a rush to a doork. For any investment target, the reasons for being bullish on him and the reasons for being bearish on him will be sufficient in any one time period.

At the beginning of the year, millions of male lions crossed the Xiangjiang River and went south to grab pricing power, and by the end of the year, most investors had entered a state of discoloration of Hong Kong stocks. Because of the different funding attributes and trading environment, it is unrealistic to quickly smooth out the A/H spread in a short period of time.

"If we only look at the current valuation level of Hong Kong stocks, relative to the historical level of Hong Kong stocks themselves has also dropped to a low point, the time should not be to take a magnifying glass to find shortcomings, we are confident that Hong Kong stocks will provide a reasonable income expectation next year." Li Xiaoxing said.

The advantage of "leading companies" has increased, and the valuation has become cheaper?

Looking forward to the dimension of the next two to three years, Li Xiaoxing believes that there are three things that will happen next: one is the gradual fluization of the new crown; the second is the gradual upgrading of the economy; and the third is the gradual return of liquidity to normal.

"The conclusion of our recent industry research is that the leading companies have not reduced their leading edge in the past year, but have increased in many industries, and then the valuations of many companies have become relatively cheap in the industry." Li Xiaoxing said.

In Li Xiaoxing's view, the performance time of high-quality companies will come sooner or later, just like after 2015, the liquidity tide has receded, which is the sweet time for the performance of high-quality leading companies. His view of the market in 2022 can be summed up in two sentences: "carbon neutrality, stable consumption, focus on core assets".

Specific to the technology industry, he believes that the investment of technology stocks is the process of investment change, the direction of investment change benefit, and the formation of investment barriers. The biggest stage of growth stock growth is not in the steady-state pattern after the final barrier is formed, but in the process of the formation of the barrier.

From the perspective of the overall changes in the technology industry, two major changes are taking place, namely changes in the energy structure and geopolitical changes. From the perspective of energy structure transformation, the industrial trend of new energy is not over.

On the energy production side, the wind and photovoltaic penetration rate is far from the target; on the energy consumption side, the penetration rate of domestic pure electric vehicles (excluding hybrids) is less than 15%, and the global penetration rate is not more than 10%. There will still be significant investment opportunities in photovoltaics, wind power, grid equipment, energy storage and electric vehicles.

Of course, the investment opportunities in these subdivisions have been fully tapped in 2021, and even some of the stock prices are in front of the fundamentals. This increases the difficulty of investment in 2022, and in 2022, more efforts should be made on the selection of industrial chain links and the mining of individual stocks.

Positive increase in the fourth quarter, because of the sight of these "signals"

Historically, every harsh external environment has strengthened the competitiveness of high-quality companies and is more conducive to the optimization of the pattern. Li Xiaoxing believes that these negative factors will weaken in 2022, and the overall consumption investment will be more optimistic than in 2021.

According to Li Xiaoxing, the allocation of liquor was increased in the fourth quarter of last year, because it saw "the continuous accumulation of positive factors and the obvious signal of reform, which strengthened the certainty of medium- and long-term performance."

In Li Xiaoxing's view, mass consumer goods are expected to perform better in the second quarter, optimistic about condiments with price increase elasticity, and the recovery of the catering supply chain that has been suppressed by the epidemic; the aquaculture industry also has opportunities next year and needs to gradually verify the inflection point, but the strength will be significantly weaker than the last time.

Looking forward to 2022, we will continue to hold medical devices with friendly policy environments and solid performance growth, and vaccine leaders with strong research and development strength and continuous performance; gradually buy consumer medical care whose performance is expected to recover after the epidemic; and choose opportunities to allocate other targets with low valuations and obvious fundamental improvements.

In addition, bank stocks are a more optimistic sector, although the overall revenue and earnings growth rate will return to normal levels in 2022, but retail banks and urban commercial banks in economically developed areas will still maintain a high growth rate. The wealth management track in brokerage stocks is also a relatively bullish sector.

The margin of the real estate industry has indeed improved, but the long-term certainty of prosperity has declined, and in the process of this round of private real estate risk exposure, the relative returns of state-owned real estate companies can obtain higher industry concentration, so they have a neutral attitude towards real estate.

"Thanks to the support of the holders along the way, although our performance has fluctuated from time to time, it has always been for us, and your expectations and criticisms are the driving force for us to continue to move forward." Finally, Li Xiaoxing thanked the holders with "Ten thousand trees and plum blossoms in the sky, and ninety thousand miles of wind and peng are moving".