Toyota's market value exceeded 40 trillion yen for the first time, and the "make-up class" was electrified

Despite the chip shortage and the epidemic, Toyota has created a new history.

According to the New York Times, Toyota sold a total of 2.3 million vehicles in the United States in 2021, an increase of more than 10%, successfully surpassing General Motors to become the highest-selling automaker in the U.S. market. At the same time, Toyota became the first overseas automaker to achieve this achievement in the nearly 120-year history of the U.S. auto industry.

Compared with the improvement in performance, Toyota's market value is also eye-catching. On January 18, Toyota Motor's Tokyo-listed stock exceeded 2,452 yen in early trading, and the company's market value exceeded 40 trillion yen for the first time. Although in recent times, Ford, GM and other car companies have also performed well in the capital market, Toyota's new market value record is more worthy of scrutiny.

Sales have increased, and the lack of cores remains the same

In 2021, Toyota's fundamentals have risen steadily, and although global sales have not yet been released, toyota has locked in the 2021 global sales champion in advance of the first 11 months of sales. According to the data, from January to November, Toyota's cumulative global sales reached 9.56 million vehicles, an increase of 12% year-on-year. Toyota also raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year (April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022) to JPY 2.8 trillion as sales grew. Tatsuo Yoshida, an analyst at Bo think tank, said: "Toyota's forecast of a profit of 2.8 trillion yen is a surprise, which means that Toyota may meet or even exceed expectations. ”

In addition, in the Chinese market, Toyota has also achieved ten consecutive years of growth. In 2021, Toyota sold 1.944 million units in China, of which FAW Toyota's cumulative sales were 860019 units, and GAC Toyota's cumulative sales were 840396 units, totaling about 1.7 million units.

In the eyes of industry insiders, the reason why Toyota can achieve excellent sales results, the fundamental reason is the acceleration of electrification in the mainland automobile market, although Toyota started late in pure electric models, but its experience in the field of hybrid technology and market reputation is also incomparable to other car companies.

According to data released by Toyota China, toyota gasoline-electric hybrid models have sold more than 1.5 million units in China. It is worth noting that it took 15 years from the Toyota Hybrid to enter China to sell more than 1 million vehicles, and from 1 million to 1.5 million vehicles, it took only 15 months. This also shows that Toyota hybrid models are becoming more and more recognized in the mainland.

However, the shortage of chips is still restricting Toyota's production. Toyota has been cutting production and production frequently since the second half of last year, and the latest plan is to suspend production of 11 production lines at eight domestic plants, including the Motomachi Plant in Aichi Prefecture, in February. Toyota said that it expects domestic and foreign new vehicle production to be about 150,000 units lower than its production plan in February, and global production will be reduced by about 700,000 units, and Toyota expects new vehicle production this fiscal year to be lower than its original forecast of about 9 million units.

Affected by this news, Toyota Motor's Tokyo-listed stock fell 4.7% in early trading on January 19, the largest intraday decline since March 2020. Toshihide Kinoshita, an analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities, said even Toyota, which has relatively strong supply chain management, could not achieve production targets. He wrote in a note: "The situation for other companies is certainly more challenging. ”

With the electrification of "make-up lessons", can Toyota's market value return to the first place?

Although Toyota's sales are excellent, it is still far from Tesla's market value in terms of market value, or even less than a quarter, which also reflects that the capital market's expectations for traditional car companies are still inferior to new energy vehicle companies. Even some sales and revenue are not as good as the new car-making forces of traditional car companies, and they have also surpassed traditional car companies in terms of market value.

In this context, the new car-making forces and traditional car companies have formed two states in the capital market, one is the intelligent electric vehicle companies represented by Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, and their valuations are also high due to higher market expectations. The other is the traditional fuel car companies represented by Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford, although the revenue of these car companies is outstanding, but the track they are in is relatively backward, there is no follow-up expectation, and the market cannot give a corresponding valuation according to the later growth.

Therefore, from 2021 onwards, some traditional car companies have also begun to embark on the road of electrification transformation. However, although many traditional car companies are transforming, toyota is the only car company that has bet on many aspects.

At a press conference on November 13, 2021, Toyota Motor President Akio Toyoda said: "In the face of the uncertainty of electrification transformation, what we need is a diversified solution, and we don't want to tie ourselves to one choice. "Although diversification is more difficult, Toyota's layout in electrification is indeed a bit late. It is understood that Toyota's first electric vehicle for the global mass market is not expected to be listed until the middle of this year.

However, in December 2021, Toyota still let the outside world see some future products. At the press conference on the same day, Toyota released 16 pure electric models in one go and announced that it plans to launch 30 electric models by 2030. During this period, Toyota will invest 8 trillion yen in electrification, half of which will be spent on the development of pure electric models. Toyota aims to sell 3.5 million electric models worldwide each year by 2030. At the same time, Akio Toyoda said that he hopes that hydrogen fuel vehicles that have been researched and invested for many years can get benefits, which is in parallel with the development of pure electric vehicles.

In addition, in early December 2021, Toyota promised to sell only zero-emission vehicles in Europe by 2035; a few days later, Toyota announced that it would build the first battery factory in the United States in North Carolina with an investment of $1.29 billion. With the performance paving, coupled with the rapid progress of transformation, the valuation of the capital market for established traditional car companies will also become higher and higher. In the eyes of industry insiders, the current market no longer distinguishes between the so-called new forces and traditional car companies, as long as it can make a difference in electrification, there will be a good valuation.

In the global competition of new energy industry, in the first half, China achieved a leading position in the field of electrification and was also in a leading position in the field of intelligence. Now, the competition in the second half has just begun, NVIDIA, Intel and other intelligent companies are still leading, and traditional car companies such as Toyota, Ford, and General Motors have begun to electrify the transformation. From this point of view, although the mainland's electric vehicle companies seem to be a good one, they have long hidden a crisis.

Responsible Editor: Li Yan'an Editor-in-Chief: Yu Jianping