A year ago today, the 78-year-old Biden officially inaugurated the 46th president of the United States in the cold winds of Washington. At that time, the new crown epidemic was still raging, and the Capitol Hill riots brought new security risks, and the whole of Washington was in a state of tension.
Biden, who entered the White House with the highest number of votes in U.S. history, pointed to four major crises facing the United States: COVID-19, the climate crisis, economic recovery and racial equality. He made an ambitious commitment to lead the United States through these crises while healing america's soul and becoming president of all Americans.
However, a year later, the epidemic rebounded again, the economic recovery was blocked, the bipartisan dispute became fierce, and the satisfaction of the American people with Biden continued to decline. "On the first anniversary of his inauguration, the White House may not be in the mood to celebrate." U.S. Public Radio commented.
On the afternoon of January 19, 2022, local time, the 79-year-old Biden held a press conference on the first anniversary of his appointment at the White House. It was his first press conference in 10 months.
At the nearly 120-minute launch, Biden called it "a challenging year, but also a year of tremendous progress." He talked about the achievements of the US government in fighting the epidemic, vaccine promotion, job creation, etc., and talked about the situation in Ukraine and the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Biden denied overproduction, saying he might be better than anyone could have imagined. He blamed his stalled legislative agenda on Republican obstruction, saying "the best days in this country are still ahead, not behind."
On January 19, local time, in Washington, US President Joe Biden held a press conference. Figure/IC photo
However, as can be seen from the continued decline in support, most Americans may not be very satisfied with Biden's answers over the past year.
Just slightly higher than Trump's anniversary approval rating
"When Biden took the stage, I thought it was a great, hopeful moment." Rafi Jacobson, an 18-year-old new Yorker, recalled AFP. But a year later, Jacobson changed his mind, saying he had "never been so frustrated and disappointed by the state of electoral politics."
Jacobson's grievances are not unique. Judging by the poll data, more than half of the American people are not satisfied with Biden's work.
At the time of the 2020 election, Biden won more than 80 million votes, becoming the most popular presidential candidate in U.S. history. Despite his predecessor, President Trump, who repeatedly claimed that the election was fraudulent, Biden still managed to enter the White House with 55 percent approval.
Just 12 months later, however, Biden has become almost the most unpopular president of the United States in recent years. According to pollster FiveThirtyEight, biden's average approval rating on January 18, 2022 was just 42 percent, down 13 percent from when he took office. At the same time, dissatisfaction with Biden's administration has risen from 35 percent at the beginning of his presidency to 52 percent today.
That's not good news for Biden. Among the recent US presidents, the only one whose approval rating was lower than Biden's after taking office a year was Trump, who had stirred up the political storm in the United States , and Trump's first anniversary of office had a 39.5% approval rating, the lowest in recent presidents. By comparison, Obama's first anniversary was supported by 50.4 percent and George W. Bush's at 81.2 percent.
Biden support and support rate graphs. /Screenshot of the FiveThirtyEight website
Biden's approval ratings are somehow a reflection of how he is in power. Overall, his administration over the past year has not been smooth. Yuan Zheng, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Beijing News reporter.
Yuan Zheng pointed out that since Biden took office, he has focused on domestic issues, but whether it is the epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery that are most concerned by voters, or the deep-rooted social stratification, the gap between rich and poor, racial injustice and other issues, he is a bit weak.
"For Biden's administration over the past year, I think it's possible to score a 60-point pass. He did something within his ability, but the United States did face many problems, difficulties, resistance, and the final results were very limited. Yuan Zheng thought.
In fact, Gallup polling data shows that Biden's support for Democrats, Republicans and independents has declined over the past year. Since october last year, Biden's approval rating has been in a slump of less than 45%.
According to the BBC analysis, Biden never seems to have a traditional presidential "honeymoon period", his approval rating was medium at the beginning of his presidency, and there has not been any significant increase since then, and now his approval rating is in an area that is extremely dangerous for a president who wants to fight for re-election.
The first year of the difficulty
The Associated Press recently commented on Biden's performance in governance over the past year, saying that biden pointed out two major diseases facing the United States when he was sworn in: one is the disease of national spirit, and the other is the disease of the new crown epidemic. However, a year has passed, and neither disease has subsided.
Biden's first year of president was spent in the midst of repeated outbreaks.
At a press conference on the afternoon of the 19th, Biden said that he was satisfied with the performance of the current administration in handling the epidemic. Biden believes there is no need to panic about the Aumecreon mutant, which is currently causing concern, while promising that "the lockdown will not be reintroduced."
However, from the perspective of epidemic data, the number of confirmed cases and 410,000 deaths in the United States at the beginning of Biden's rise to power was 24 million. A year later, the number of confirmed cases in the United States was 67 million, and the number of deaths was 850,000, more than doubling the number of both figures.
After taking office, Biden made the fight against the epidemic a top priority. Therefore, he changed the practice of the previous government, and after coming to power, he issued a mandatory mask order and strengthened testing and isolation. In addition, he has repeatedly called on people to be vaccinated, pushing the two-shot vaccination rate in the United States to 63%. However, the emerging new crown mutation strain has repeatedly impacted the Biden administration's anti-epidemic achievements, and the epidemic in the United States is currently at its peak since the outbreak of the epidemic.
On December 16, 2021, local time, in Washington, D.C., US President Joe Biden met with members of the White House's COVID-19 response team. Figure/IC photo
Biden has achieved some results over the past year in terms of the economic recovery that has attracted the most attention from the American public, including adding more than 6.4 million new jobs and reducing the unemployment rate from 6.3% at the beginning of office to 3.9% today.
However, since the second half of last year, labor shortages, supply chain crises, and rising inflation have hampered the RECOVERY of the U.S. economy. Of particular concern is the fact that U.S. inflation rose 7 percent year-on-year in December, the highest in more than 40 years.
James Thurber, a distinguished professor of government at the University of the Americas and founder of the Center for Congress and President Studies, told the Beijing News that Biden's main achievements in the past year have been the passage of the $1.9 trillion new crown bailout bill, the passage of the $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill, the signing of a bill to raise the government debt ceiling, and a series of executive orders and many regulatory actions.
But Thurber believes biden's shortcomings over the past year are also very obvious. He pointed out that Biden's "Rebuild a Better Future" bill has been blocked in the Senate, the reform of the voting rights bill is difficult to advance, there has been no obvious progress on immigration issues, police system reform and other issues, and it has not responded well to the supply chain crisis and inflation crisis.
But, "given the Republican boycott and the bipartisan stalemate in the House and Senate, Biden's first year in office can be considered a success." Thurber thought. He gave Biden an 80-point rating for his performance over the past year.
Biden himself may be more satisfied with the economic performance, saying that he is "very happy to have a referendum on my performance in the economy." CNN noted that in the upcoming midterm elections, Biden and Democrats will use the falling unemployment rate as a sign of a better economy. But Republicans will use inflation and supply chain crises as "weapons" against Democrats.
A degree of "back to normal"
On the external front, after Biden took office, as he said, to some extent led the United States to "return" to the world stage.
On his first day in office, Biden signed an executive order leading the United States back to the Paris Agreement and the WHO. He restarted the Iranian nuclear negotiations in an effort to get Iran back into compliance with the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.
He also held the first so-called "democracy summit", formed the US-Uk-Australia Tripartite Security Partnership (AUKUS), and restarted the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" between the United States, Japan, Australia and India, demonstrating his strategic intention to win over allies. However, Biden's hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan last August was criticized by the world.
On August 30, 2021, local time, in Kabul, Afghanistan, the last group of U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan and boarded the C-17 transport aircraft. Figure/IC photo
In fact, FiveThirtyEight poll data shows that Biden's approval curve and support curve crossed on August 30 last year, and since then the support rate has continued to rise and the support rate has continued to decline. August 30 last year was the time when the U.S. military ended 20 years of war in Afghanistan and withdrew from Afghanistan.
Yuan Zheng pointed out that foreign policy was not the focus of Biden's beginnings in office, but he also made some moves. First, he changed the Policy of Putting the United States First and Fighting Allies during the Trump era to some extent, ending the previous chaotic and irresponsible state of the United States to the outside world. Second, Biden pursues so-called value diplomacy, drawing partners and strengthening alliances from multiple dimensions, thereby exerting pressure on China, Russia and other countries.
"Since Biden took office, the United States has returned to the 'original America' to a certain extent." Yuan said that since Trump took office, the United States has become less like the United States — especially after the Capitol Hill riots on January 6 last year, which surprised many people. Since Biden took over, he has been trying to lead the United States to "return to normal", although it is difficult, but the United States is turning to the "original United States".
The Associated Press reported that a year after Biden took office, the United States looked a little more normal in the world.
However, although Biden intends to revitalize the international influence of the United States and restore the global leadership of the United States, and he has appropriately strengthened communication and consultation with allies, Yuan Zheng believes that it is not easy for the United States to repair the damage caused by Trump to the international image of the United States in the short term.
He pointed out that the United States is declining in power, has many domestic problems, and is unwilling to assume more international obligations, so it is very difficult for the United States to regain as much influence as it used to.
Biden mentioned the Ukrainian issue that is currently attracting much attention at the press conference on the 19th. He said that if Russia "invaded" Ukraine, the United States would increase its presence in Poland and Romania. He also threatened that if the situation in Ukraine escalated, Russia would face "serious economic consequences."
In the stalled Iran nuclear negotiations, Biden said that now is not the time to abandon the negotiations. Regarding the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Biden said that withdrawing from Afghanistan is difficult and that he "will not apologize for withdrawing from Afghanistan."
Or there will be a more difficult future
As President of the United States, Biden has another 3 years to serve. But for him, the next 3 years will only be more difficult. Thurber told the Beijing News that the main reason is that it is difficult for him to get Republicans to support his political agenda.
When Biden became president of the United States, it was a period of high political polarization and serious social division in the United States. Although he promised to unite the two parties, unite the whole country, and become the president of all Americans, Biden may also be powerless in the face of party differences and bipartisan disputes.
On January 15, 2022, local time, florence, Arizona, former US President Trump held a rally there. Figure/IC photo
Yuan Zheng analyzed that the situation facing Biden after entering the White House is particularly complicated, not only does he face opposition and constraints from the Republican Party, but there are also sharp contradictions between different factions such as moderates and progressives in the party, which makes him particularly difficult in Congress.
In addition, Biden from the Democratic Party adheres to the governing philosophy of "big government" and calls for higher taxes and social welfare, but the Republican Party advocates "small government" and adheres to the concept of market-led governance. This difference has led to a more bitter bipartisan confrontation within Congress.
In fact, just last week, Biden suffered a major setback in Congress. According to CNN, biden called for changes to the Senate's "Filibuster" rules to advance the reform of the voting rights bill, but the proposal was opposed not only by Republican lawmakers, but also by several Democratic senators. Biden said on the 19th that if the voting rights reform cannot be passed, the possibility of illegal elections this year will greatly increase.
In Thurber's view, the bipartisan state of Congress has greatly limited Biden's pace of advancing the legislative process. Although the Current Democratic Party controls both houses of Congress, the advantage is very weak.
In his upcoming book, Rivals for Power: Presidential Congressional Relations, Thurber notes that Biden's promise to resume bipartisan cooperation is very difficult to achieve. The current bipartisan rivalry in Congress is intensifying, and neither side is willing to compromise, making it difficult for Biden to advance many of his legislative agendas.
Thurber said that partisan polarization in the United States has been intensifying over the past few decades, and it has become a reality in American politics in the 21st century. And after Trump claimed fraud in the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots, Biden faced a worse situation.
In November, the United States will usher in high-profile midterm elections. Many observers point out that based on the current performance of the Biden administration, Democrats are likely to lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
"Biden is currently less popular in polls, and his lack of great achievements that the American people can feel could weigh on Democrats and affect their performance in this year's midterm elections." Thurber thinks.
Yuan Zheng holds the same view. He believes that the Democratic Party is likely to lose the majority of seats in both houses, which means that Biden will become a "lame duck president" in the next two years of office. With the Democratic Party now having a slim marginal control of both houses of Congress, It has been quite difficult for Biden to move forward with legislation, and it will be even more difficult for him to govern without control of both houses.
"Biden is a weak president, and his personal leadership charisma is not strong. In the next three years, his road will still be very difficult, whether it is domestic or diplomatic, the achievements he can achieve are limited. Yuan Zheng said.
Biden said last November that he planned to run for re-election in the 2024 presidential election if his physical condition allowed. Although Trump has not officially acknowledged it, he has also hinted on many occasions that he may participate in the 2024 presidential election.
There is still great uncertainty as to whether the two former rivals will meet in 2024 and who will take the presidency.
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian
Edited by Zhang Lei, proofread by Chen Diyan