According to media reports, US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Newland said in an interview that the United States has brewed 18 action plans to deal with the escalation of the situation in Ukraine. If, if Russia really goes to war in February 2022, can it really achieve a complete victory? Russian politician Leonkov said that the Current Ukrainian Army is completely different from 2015, and the strength of the Ukrainian Army has increased. If the main Ukrainian forces attack, the Donbass side may not be able to withstand for 44 days.
However, if the main force of the Russian army enters the war, if you want to defeat the main force of the Ukrainian army, it is still a matter of cutting melons and chopping vegetables. The main force of the Russian army can be severely damaged by the Ukrainian army in about 1 week. Even, russian commentator Vuzins believes that Russian tank troops do not need to be mobilized, and russian air force and drone forces can destroy all military targets in Ukraine.
But what's next? First of all, the huge economic pressure, in 2014, after the Russian army took control of Crimea, it was subjected to very severe economic sanctions. As a direct result, Russia's GDP fell by 40%. At the same time, the United States will definitely cut off the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. At the same time, the United States is now negotiating with a number of international energy groups to completely replace Russia's energy market in Europe. That is to say, to strike Russia further economically.
The Contradiction Between Russia and the United States is a structural contradiction that will continue in the foreseeable future, especially after the United States has changed from an oil importer to an exporter, and Russia's own economic strength alone cannot actually fight the United States for a long time.
Now in the international market, Russia's largest export commodity is energy. Once the Loss of the European Market for Russia, it will also be very heavy. Russia itself is relatively backward in the new economy, whether it is in high-end manufacturing, new energy industry, or in the Internet industry, Russia is relatively backward.
If Russia wants to redevelop, it is difficult, first of all, Russia is extremely short of access to the sea, and it lacks the temperate sea access with a good environment. It is also difficult for Russia to develop modern industry, especially modern light industry and technology industry, because the population of Russians is too small.
In 2018, Russia's manufacturing added value was 203.99 billion US dollars, ranking lower than Indonesia and Mexico in the world; in 2018, the total import and export volume of Russian trade in goods was about 687.12 billion US dollars, only 16.33% of the United States. Especially now, Russia is aging, there are fewer birthrates, and especially ethnic Russians are rapidly decreasing.
The New York Times reported that the United States has prepared to establish new military bases and defensive lines in Romania, Poland and other countries to strengthen. At the same time, as soon as war broke out, countries such as Sweden and Finland would join NATO, causing the situation in northern Russia to deteriorate. After all, Finland and Russia have more than 1,000 kilometers of border. St. Petersburg is only 200 km from the Finnish border.
Once Finland joins NATO, the long-range rockets of the NATO army can cover St. Petersburg. Countries such as Georgia will also join NATO, leaving Russia surrounded in the southern Black Sea region.
At the same time, after Russia swallows Ukraine, it will awaken those European virgins who have put the south mountain! Once Britain, France, Germany and other countries began to arm themselves again, the pressure on Russia was very great. Therefore, Russia's current military strength is not at all problematic if it wants to annex Ukraine.
But Russia also has to pay a big price, especially economic costs. At the same time, it will end up being difficult to ride the tiger. Spend a lot of national strength in all directions with NATO's 29 allies to top the bull.
Moreover, it is also likely to fall into guerrilla warfare in Ukraine, not to mention the heavy burden of feeding Ukraine's 40 million people. So Russia won't really go to war against Ukraine, it won't go to war with the United States in Eastern Europe. The greatest possibility for the Russian army is to open up land lines of communication in Crimea or to control the entire pro-Russian region of Donbass.