Well-known strategists predict that if Russia and Ukraine go to war, oil prices will rise to $120 per barrel

The Paper's reporter Nan Boyi intern Gong Yanhua

David Roche, a veteran U.S. strategist, predicts that if Russia goes to war with Ukraine, oil will reach $120 a barrel and the global economy will "completely change."

According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) reported on February 9, Roach believes that if Putin really "takes some dramatic measures against Ukraine", the United States and its allies may impose severe sanctions on Russia, and the European stock market and global economic outlook will "completely change".

Roach said that if Russia goes to war with Ukraine and triggers sanctions, it will hinder Russia's use of foreign exchange mechanisms, information systems, etc., and Russia may be prevented from exporting commodities such as oil, natural gas or coal, and the price of oil will certainly reach $120 per barrel.

In an interview with CNBC, Roach called the uncertainty of Russia's next move "a ghost in the room" with the potential to disrupt global markets on a massive scale.

Roach predicts that russia's war with Ukraine will have far-reaching economic consequences, even if the potential impact on oil prices is not taken into account. He warned that many market participants underestimated the potential impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

Recently, the deterioration of Ukrainian-Russian relations has accelerated, and the two sides have deployed a large number of military personnel and weapons and equipment in the border areas of the two countries. The United States, Ukraine and NATO claim that Russia has gathered heavy troops in the area near the eastern border of Ukraine and has the potential to "invade". The Russian side denied this, stressing that NATO activities threaten russia's border security and that russia has the right to mobilize troops within its territory to defend its territory.

On Feb. 9, the Brent crude contract for April delivery edged lower to around $90.50 a barrel, but oil prices have been rising steadily since the start of the year, when they traded below $80 a barrel.

Responsible Editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo Editor: Jin Jie

Proofreader: Luan Meng