According to US media reports recently, some US strategic think tank experts believe that public opinion is worried that China will "invade Taiwan Island" at the same time as Russia launched an offensive that will lead to war between Russia and Ukraine, but this is not based on evidence, and it is the excessive remarks of all parties that aggravate this worry, not any facts. This view is most shared by retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper, a former director of the U.S. Defense and Security Cooperation Agency and U.S. defense attaché in China, who is now an expert on strategic think tanks.
Hooper believes that it is unlikely that Ukraine and Taiwan Island will be "invaded" at the same time. "I think it's true that crises can always happen at the same time, and China will pay attention to the world's reaction, internalize the lessons learned, and then incorporate them into its own strategy," he said. In other words, I think that for China, even if Russia and Ukraine go to war, it will only mean a change in the world pattern. Rather than saying that the United States will face a two-front war. Another think tank expert who shares the same view is Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasian Group, who said that even if the United States does not send troops to defend Ukraine, China should not and probably will not regard this as the green light of "Wutongtai Island."
He said the United States had shown that the Taiwan Strait was a "no-go zone" through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a new security alliance with Australia and Britain, stronger diplomatic ties with The Taiwan authorities and this month's maritime exercises with Japan. "If there's anything to say, it's the lesson that Chinese has been getting from all sides over the past year is that the United States is concentrating its power in the area of concern, which is the Indo-Pacific," Bremer said. Asia is where Washington cares, and China is the adversary that Washington fears. We're signaling to each other that there are some pretty important red lines on both sides. ”
Bremer said that in any case, the United States has sent a "deterrent" message, and Chinese will certainly take notes. Other experts, such as the prominent international studies scholar Hal Brandz, said China was watching to see if the West could unite to establish a "punitive sanctions regime" with practical effects to prevent Russia from further "attacking Ukraine." Such economic pressures will also be an important tool for managing direct conflict with China. He also said they may also be concerned about the extent to which the crisis will tie down U.S. resources.
The war zone in eastern Europe was once seen as fairly calm, allowing the Pentagon to implement the fabled "shift to Asia" strategy. "The more distracted the United States is, the better it is obviously for China," he said. This stalemate in Europe once again raises the question of how the United States weighs its involvement in other crises around the world. "This problem seems to be solved only by further strengthening U.S. allies such as Japan, Australia, and India." Text/PY