Reporter Li Zhe reported from Beijing
Russia is a major producer and exporter of oil and gas, and tensions with Ukraine are tying the nerves of the global energy market.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, international oil prices rose in response to the sound of February 24, and once broke through the intraday mark of $100 / barrel, hitting a new high since September 2014.
Han Xiaoping, chief analyst of China Energy Network, told the China Business Daily reporter: "Such oil price performance is not unexpected, in fact, before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international oil prices have been at a high point in recent years. In a short period of time, the energy pattern is still dominated by fossil energy, and there has been no fundamental change. High oil prices or will stimulate the faster development of the new energy field, so as to get rid of the impact of high oil prices on energy security, from the perspective of energy security multi-energy complementarity has become inevitable. ”
In the view of Yang An, head of energy and chemical industry of Haitong Futures Co., Ltd., high oil prices will have an impact on the refining and chemical market, but this part of the impact will not be prominent in the short term, and the high oil price of $100 / barrel may be difficult to maintain for a long time.
Crude oil broke through the $100 mark
According to the People's Daily, on February 25, local time, conflicts in many places in Ukraine were still continuing, and there were casualties on both sides of Russia and Ukraine. The two armies fought fiercely in Kiev Oblast.
Affected by geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices broke through the $100/barrel mark for the first time in nearly seven years. On February 24, the main Brent crude oil futures contract briefly broke through the $100/b mark intraday, a new high since September 2014.
In this regard, Han Xiaoping told this reporter: "Such oil price performance can be said to be not surprising, in fact, before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international oil prices have been at a high point in recent years." Looking back at the previous oil price trend, it is not difficult to find that international oil prices have rebounded rapidly after experiencing a sharp decline in the past two years. In a short period of time, the energy pattern is still dominated by fossil energy, and there has been no fundamental change. ”
Looking back at the past two years, the trend of oil prices can be described as a big ups and downs. In 2020, with the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some enterprises were forced to stop work and production, and under the stimulus of tightening demand for transportation and industrial production, and OPEC+ (a long-term cooperation mechanism between OPEC and some non-OPEC oil producing countries) failed to reach a new production reduction agreement, international oil prices plummeted in April 2020, and the settlement price of crude oil futures on the New York Futures and Commodity Exchange WTI may fell to negative for the first time in history.
Since then, international oil prices have bottomed out as new production cut agreements have been reached and the global economy has gradually adapted to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to increase demand for crude oil, rising from around $40/b in November 2020 to around $78/b in July 2021. Today, under the influence of the geopolitical factors of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international oil price has stood at a high point of $100 / barrel.
At present, from the perspective of the global crude oil supply pattern, OPEC+, Russia, and the United States are the main oil export areas. Asia-Pacific, Europe and the United States are the main regions of oil consumption. According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Agency), crude oil and natural gas revenues accounted for an average of 43% of the Russian government's total annual revenue between 2011 and 2020.
High oil prices may be unsustainable
Although international oil prices have hit a new high in recent years, industry insiders have judged that international oil prices may not be able to maintain high levels for a long time in the future.
Yang An said: "In the long run, due to the OPEC+ production cut agreement is about to expire in April this year, stimulated by high oil prices, it is still unknown whether the new production reduction agreement can be successfully reached, and the major oil producers in the Middle East have the ability to increase production in a short period of time, so in the long run, oil prices remain at a high level of $100 / barrel lack of support." ”
Jinlianchuang crude oil analysts mentioned that under the dispute between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and the European Union quickly launched economic sanctions against Russia. However, the energy sector is not among the sanctions. A senior State Department official said the sanctions were not intended to hit global energy markets. There is still considerable uncertainty, but it is likely that there will be no serious disruption to Russia's oil supply to the rest of the world.
"From this point of view, Russia's external supply of crude oil is mainly affected by the sea transport, while the supply of pipeline oil and pipeline gas is almost unaffected." Observing the changes in oil prices in the past 24 hours, it is not difficult to find that with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices have increased instantaneously, but due to the limited impact on the supply side, they have then fallen back again. Yang An said.
In fact, Russia's current crude oil production is basically maintained at the level of exporting about 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about 12% of the total global crude oil trade. Of these, about 60 percent of the oil is exported to European countries, accounting for 48 percent of Russia's total crude oil exports; the other 30 percent is exported to China.
Yang An said: "Germany, France and other regions have a certain dependence on Russia's crude oil and natural gas. The launching of energy sanctions against Russia is bound to have an impact on its energy supply, which Germany and France do not want to see. ”
The impact on the domestic market is limited
Talking about the impact of rising crude oil prices on the domestic market, Yang An said: "With the increase in oil prices, the refining and chemical sector will be under greater pressure in a short period of time, on the one hand, the price of crude oil will rise, and the price transmission at the sales end will take corresponding time, but the impact of this aspect will not be reflected in a short period of time." ”
The reporter contacted a number of listed companies in the chemical field, and the other party generally said that crude oil is an important raw material for chemical production, but the profit performance still needs a feedback cycle, and there is no obvious feedback effect in a short period of time. And the company's profit performance is also affected by the terminal sales price.
Among them, Bohai Chemical insiders said that the company is mainly engaged in the import and deep processing of propane. And raw materials mainly from overseas, propane price changes affect more directly, although the price of crude oil will affect the price of propane, but also refer to the comprehensive impact of factors such as exchange rate, supply and demand of propane.
In Han Xiaoping's view, with the uncertainty of international oil prices and global climate change and other factors, the mainland is accelerating the adjustment of energy structure, in the short term, energy supply is still dependent on fossil energy, but the road of multi-energy complementarity is imperative, high oil prices are bound to stimulate the development of other energy supply methods.
In fact, even though the current international oil prices are at a high level, domestic crude oil production enterprises, including PetroChina and Sinopec, as well as international oil giants such as BP and Total, are gradually adjusting their industrial structure through transformation and upgrading, thereby reducing the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the company.
(Editor: Dong Shuguang Proofreader: Yan Jingning)
![Real kids Do you know one of the biggest protests in Bangladesh that only teenagers held in human history? They are all minors. The oldest of them is less than ten[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)