CICC: Electric + intelligent + domestic era The automotive connector industry is emerging

Zhitong Finance APP learned that CICC released a research report that automotive connectors are widely used in automotive system modules such as power systems, body systems, chassis systems, intelligent cockpits, and automatic driving. Compared with other downstream applications, automotive connectors have high temperature resistance, strong shock resistance, high safety and other requirements, and belong to high-end connector products. The application scenarios of connector products of traditional fuel vehicles are limited, and most of them are low-voltage connectors working at 12V-16V, and the technical barriers are limited. As the automotive industry moves towards electrification and intelligence, the amount of new categories such as high-voltage connectors and high-speed connectors in the car is expected to usher in a leap forward, and domestic suppliers with potential in related industries are emerging.

Looking ahead, CICC believes that the following factors will drive the development opportunities of domestic suppliers: 1) the favor of independent brand customers for domestic suppliers; 2) the opportunity of "overtaking in curves" brought about by incremental demand such as high-voltage and high-speed connectors; 3) the competitive advantages accumulated by domestic suppliers in manufacturing costs, service capabilities, and even understanding of technology and standards.

THE MAIN VIEWS OF CICC are as follows:

High-voltage connectors: The increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has led to the growth of bicycle consumption. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in mainland China will reach 14.8% in 2021, ushering in a rapid penetration stage. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the new "big three electricity, small three electricity" system of new energy vehicles has improved the voltage level of the whole vehicle, and in the future to the development of 800V architecture, we believe that high-voltage connectors as an important electrical connection parts in the electric system are expected to usher in rapid development. We estimate that by 2025, the mainland new energy vehicle high-voltage connector market will reach 25 billion yuan, corresponding to about 58% of the CAGR in 2021-25.

High-speed high-frequency connectors: fully benefit from the upgrading of in-vehicle communication needs in the era of intelligence. High-speed high-frequency connectors are mainly used in the field of vehicle perception and in-vehicle communication. We believe that under the trend of intelligence, the total amount of data in vehicle-side communication continues to rise, Microsoft expects to achieve automatic driving will generate 20-100 TB of data per day, at least 2000 Mbps or even 10 Gbps transmission rate to process such a huge amount of data, according to which we believe that the amount of high-speed high-frequency connectors will rise rapidly, high-speed rate, miniaturization is an important development direction of the product. We estimate that by 2025, the mainland new energy vehicle high-speed high-frequency connector market is expected to reach 23 billion yuan, corresponding to about 54% of the CAGR in 2021-25.

Competitive landscape: Domestic suppliers are expected to break through the situation of overseas leaders monopolizing the domestic market. According to Bishop & Associates data, in the global automotive connector market in 2019, the market share of overseas leaders Tyco, Yazaki and Ampiv reached 67%. Although China is the world's largest connector market, there are many small and medium-sized manufacturers in the industry, and the lack of high-end category manufacturing capabilities, the domestic automotive high-end connector market supply used to be dominated by overseas leading manufacturers.

risk

The development of electrification and intelligence of automobiles is less than expected; the competitiveness of domestic suppliers is less than expected.

This article is compiled from "Zhongjin Dianjing", authors: Li Shiwen, Chen Hao, Peng Hu; Zhitong Finance Editor: Wang Jie.