Now after the beginning of summer, the harvest of new wheat has quietly entered the final countdown stage. According to years of agricultural experience, usually around mid-May, Hubei local new wheat will be the first to start sporadically marketed, and after that, this wave of bumper harvest will also quickly spread to all parts of the country. However, at a time when the supply of old wheat should have entered the "green and yellow", its price fell again and again, and even the quotation of some milling enterprises fell to 1.27 yuan / catty, falling below the lowest value before the end of April. So what is the reason for the significant decline in the center of gravity of wheat prices? What are the current wheat prices in various producing areas? Let's take a look at the wheat market trend in May 2024.
Why have wheat prices fallen again and again?
According to market monitoring feedback, the previous May Day holiday brought about by the rise to stabilize the market did not last long, the current domestic wheat prices have fallen again and again, basically has fallen back to the level of 23 years after the new wheat market. The reasons for this situation are:
1. The supply of Chenmai market is loose
Recently, the local wheat has been more active, but the transaction situation is still light, not only the transaction price continues to fall, but also the phenomenon of large-scale unsold is also frequent. It can be seen that the enthusiasm of the current market to purchase stale grain is relatively poor, and the supply of raw grain is relatively loose.
2. The demand for flour sales is bleak
In May, the characteristics of the off-season of flour sales were particularly obvious, the demand for replenishment of downstream dealers was poor, and the mentality of milling enterprises to be cautious about replenishing stocks was high. To a certain extent, this has limited the increase in wheat consumption levels.
3. The price of new wheat is lower than expected
At present, Hubei Xinmai is sporadically listed, and the opening price is about 1.15 yuan, which is lower than previously expected, which exacerbates the pessimism of the market.
How much is a pound of wheat now?
Shandong: Yutai County, Jining City, Shandong Province, wheat 1.23 yuan/jin; Luozhuang District, Linyi City, Shandong Province, wheat 1.9 yuan/jin; Shandong Zaozhuang City, Tengzhou City, wheat kernel 1.43 yuan / jin; Gaotang County, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, green wheat 3.8 yuan / jin; Ningjin County, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, rye 2.42 yuan / jin; Licheng District, Jinan City, Shandong Province, red wheat 3.57 yuan / jin; Juye County, Heze City, Shandong Province, broken wheat 0.8 yuan/jin, etc.
Hebei region: wheat in Yongnian District, Handan City, Hebei Province 1.4 yuan/jin; Julu County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province, white wheat 1.19 yuan / jin; Kangbao County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, red wheat 1.5/jin; Gaocheng District, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, broken wheat 0.7 yuan/jin, etc.
Henan area: wheat in Zhongmu County, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province 1.59 yuan/jin; Wolong District, Nanyang City, Henan Province, wheat 1.29 yuan/jin; Wheat in Queshan County, Zhumadian City, Henan Province is 1.4 yuan/jin; Yuanyang County, Xinxiang City, Henan Province, wheat kernel 1.48 yuan / jin; Yongcheng City, Shangqiu City, Henan Province, green wheat 3.9 yuan / jin; Fugou County, Zhoukou City, Henan Province, white wheat 1.26 yuan/jin; Henan Xuchang Mayor Ge City broken wheat 0.6 yuan / catty.
Anhui region: wheat in Tianjia'an District, Huainan City, Anhui Province 1.25 yuan/jin; Wangjiang County, Anqing City, Anhui Province, wheat 1.3 yuan/jin; Wheat in Jieshou City, Fuyang City, Anhui Province is 1.1 yuan/jin; Lixin County, Bozhou City, Anhui Province, rye 3.8 yuan/jin; Anhui Bozhou City, Qiaocheng District, miscellaneous wheat 0.71 yuan / jin; Feidong County, Hefei City, Anhui Province, broken wheat 0.6 yuan/catty, etc.
Jiangsu region: wheat in Jiangdu District, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province 1.5 yuan/jin; Shuyang County, Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, rye 2 yuan/jin; Red wheat in Dongtai City, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, 1.08 yuan/jin, etc.
Hubei region: wheat in Xiangzhou District, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province 1.32 yuan/jin; Jingshan City, Jingmen City, Hubei Province, wheat 1.22 yuan/jin; Wheat in Tianmen City, Tianmen City, Hubei Province, 1.21 yuan/jin; Red wheat in Laohekou City, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province is 1.55 yuan/jin; Qichun County, Huanggang City, Hubei Province, white wheat 1.28 yuan / catty, etc.
Note: The above wheat prices are all from the wholesale quotation of Huinong.com, not the retail price, for reference only! Please refer to the latest local real-time quotation for details.
Wheat market trend in May 2024
At present, new wheat has not yet been harvested in most areas, and the price of old wheat has been sluggish. Although the favorable holiday of the May Day holiday temporarily stimulated market sentiment and drove the rise in wheat prices, from the current situation of the market, it is obviously a "flash in the pan". Affected by the sporadic listing of new wheat in Hubei Province, the low opening price started, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the sentiment of enterprises to reduce prices and merge with new wheat became stronger. In addition, the release and transaction of local wheat reserves also reflect the relationship between supply and demand in the market, coupled with the impact of factors such as poor sales of flour, resulting in the continuous weakening of wheat market prices.
But you don't have to worry too much, the sporadic harvest of new wheat on the market has not yet formed a mainstream price, and the reference value is not large. Second, considering that the surplus grain reserves at the grassroots level have bottomed out, and at the same time, channel stocks are also being consumed in an orderly manner. Although the centralized listing of new season wheat will inject new vitality into the market, it is still necessary to rely on the mixed supply of new and old wheat to stabilize the market in the short term. Therefore, given that the price of aged wheat has experienced a period of decline, the room for further decline has become relatively limited. We have reason to believe that with the joint efforts of all parties, the grain market will remain relatively stable.
At present, the new wheat is about to be integrated, and manufacturers are actively preparing for Tengku, and the next wheat market is expected to face multiple game performance. However, based on the above factors, especially in the case of strong expectations of a bumper harvest of new wheat, the wheat market may be dominated by a weak trend.
In general, the current is getting closer and closer to the new wheat market, but the price of wheat has fallen again and again, the main reasons include the imminent listing of new wheat, pessimistic market sentiment, poor demand for flour purchase and sales, continuous auctions of wheat in local storage, relatively loose wheat supply levels, etc. However, according to industry insiders, the mainland's grain stocks are abundant, and the relevant departments have room for regulation and control, and the room for the price of old wheat to fall again is very limited, and the follow-up trend is expected to be stable and weak. And it should be noted that the new wheat is about to be integrated, and the next wheat market will be more changeable, so it is recommended that you should pay more attention to the changes in wheat prices and the reaction of the market after the new wheat is listed.