The author | not speak
Edited by | Zhao
Recently, the winter mileage test of new energy vehicles can be described as "in full swing".
New energy vehicles in the cold and low temperature mileage significantly reduced and charging difficulties are very prominent problems, if you ask a northerner, winter new energy vehicles can choose to charge or change the power, he may not hesitate to say the power exchange.
Today, after a period of interruption in development, the power exchange has made a comeback again, which is like sending charcoal in the snow to the owners of the north.
In 2021, Sinopec proposed to build a target of 5,000 charging and replacing power stations, so as to officially enter the power exchange service.
By December last year, Sinopec had cooperated with Weilai, Aodong, Geely and other companies to build 65 substations, and at the same time strengthen research and development to jointly promote the landing of general-purpose substations.
Following Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile has also established new companies in Guangzhou, Jiaxing, Shenzhen and other places, and its business scope includes car power exchange.
Dongfeng, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely, Yutong Bus, Guojin Automobile, China Southern Power Grid and other related enterprises have also said that they will actively layout the research and development and promotion of the power exchange model.
The power exchange mode ushered in another recovery after many years is a foregone conclusion. So, this time, can the power exchange mode achieve a breakthrough development? We try to answer a few questions by:
1. Why was the power exchange mode once abandoned, but Weilai rose to the challenge?
2. Why can the power exchange mode make a comeback?
3. What gold mining opportunities has the power exchange industry brought?
Was the battery change abandoned by Tesla, did Weilai go through?
Speaking of power exchange, we have to mention the Israeli Better Place, which first proposed the concept of power exchange in 2007, and developed a complete set of pure electric vehicle chassis power exchange technology to provide customers with pure electric vehicle power exchange services.
However, due to the large investment in hardware costs and battery maintenance costs, the number of new energy vehicles is very small, and the convenience and cost of the power exchange model at the user end, the cost of use and the traditional fuel vehicles have no major advantages, and it is impossible to achieve profitability, and finally declared bankruptcy in 2013.
In the same year that Better Place went bankrupt, Tesla introduced rapid power exchange technology, which reduced the power change time to 90 seconds. However, after the actual operation, it was found that the special-shaped battery of the chassis power exchange could not be shared across the car series, the compatibility of the replacement station was low, the operation efficiency was low, and there were fatal defects that were difficult to integrate the resources of the car company to form a common standard.
In the case that the business model does not work, Tesla will shift its focus to supercharger 3, a supercharger technology, and strategically abandon the power exchange route.
In 2010, China was the first to conduct research on power exchange technology in the field of new energy passenger vehicles by the State Grid. Due to the poor endurance of electric vehicles at that time, there was no electricity in a day or two, and the charging pile was relatively lacking, and the power exchange was also fired at that time.
However, with the increase in the battery life of electric vehicles, a charge or two is enough, and since 2013, the national policy has continued to encourage the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, more and more charging piles, and the cost is lower than that of power replacement, and electric vehicle replenishment has begun to change to charging.
In 2015, the State Grid launched the "Beijing-Shanghai Tour" activity for electric vehicles, using charging piles throughout the process, marking the shift of the national strategy to the charging mode.
The national policy was changed from replacement to charging, the main tasks of state grid enterprises changed, and at the same time, the state grid led car companies and battery factories encountered difficulties, the industrial chain could not be opened, the state grid power exchange mode was eventually stranded, and the power exchange gradually disappeared.
Since then, the power exchange has fallen into silence because it has been proved by the market to be a failed model. Until 2018, Weilai's power exchange service entered the actual operation stage, and it once again returned the power exchange model to the vision of C-end consumers.
And since the operation of the Weilai power exchange service, it has been widely praised by Weilai car owners, and Weilai is also continuing to increase investment in the replacement power station.
Weilai seems to have stepped out of a feasible power exchange mode. So, is this really the case?
At the beginning of NIO's founding, Li Bin had lunch with Tesla co-founder Mark Tapening, who was a candidate for a research and development team he wanted to set up in North America. When he said that Weilai should "change the battery", Mark questioned it at the time, arguing that the improvement of the user experience of the battery change was not enough to make up for the challenges of commercial operation.
Li Bin did not care, he believes that the reason for the failure of companies such as Better Place is that they develop power exchanges to get out of independent business models, and even replace gas stations, while Weilai only does power exchanges to improve user experience and eventually sell more cars.
Later, Li Bin still insisted on doing the power exchange service, but at the beginning it was not recognized by consumers, and the average daily number of power exchange orders was small and the operational efficiency was low.
As a result, Weilai began to provide free battery replacement services to car owners. Over time, users began to spread that it was convenient to change the power supply, and the operational efficiency of the replacement power station also began to have an inflection point.
Even if Weilai will change the TV as a value-added service for car owners, as more and more power stations are built, the huge capital investment makes Weilai have to re-examine the problem of input and output.
If the power exchange starts to be charged in the future, Shen Fei, vice president of Weilai, estimates that according to the calculation of 6 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity and an average of 50 degrees of electricity per unit, 50 times a day of electricity replacement and an annual income of 500,000 or 600,000 yuan can basically cover the site rent and equipment depreciation. According to the calculation of changing electricity once a week for each vehicle, a replacement power station must radiate about 350 vehicles to support 50 orders a day.
By the end of 2021, WEIO has launched a total of 700 substations. Excluding about 70% of the current home charging piles and Weilai owners who have fixed charging outside, it is roughly estimated that at least 800,000 units of total sales are needed to cover the cost of substation replacement.
Since its listing, Weilai has accumulated sales of 167,000 units, which is still a huge gap from the cost and point, and the profit is far away.
Shen Fei has said that if the operational efficiency is high enough, the input-output ratio of the replacement power station will not be worse than the existing fast charging station. But as far as Weilai's current sales are concerned, they obviously cannot reach it.
Therefore, Weilai seems to have done a lot of power exchanges to put aside the hat of value-added services, and in fact, it has not solved the business dilemma of not making ends meet.
Looking back at the reasons for the failure of The Exchange Place, Tesla and others to implement the power exchange model, it can be found that the biggest pain point encountered in the early development of the power exchange model is that the technical standards of battery and other power exchange related equipment are not uniform and cannot be scaled; the input cost of the power station is too high, and it is difficult for companies to maintain capital investment, and they have chosen to withdraw.
From 2013 to 2019, in the case that the market space for power exchange has not been opened, the policy has also shifted from charging and replacing in parallel to encouraging the development of charging.
Policy is often the premise of the development of an industry, and it is also a signal of industry transformation.
On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy on new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, but the vehicles that support the power exchange mode are exceptions, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of "power exchange".
The policy has turned again, but the pain points of the power exchange mode have still not been solved, can the power exchange really win this turnaround battle?
Why is the change of electricity again to welcome the spring
Mobile phones and new energy vehicles have a similar development process in charging, and have experienced from slow charging to fast charging.
The business model of mobile phone sharing charging treasure is also similar to the "separation of vehicle and electricity, battery leasing" model of new energy vehicles: battery ownership does not belong to end users.
The difference is that the mobile phone shared charging treasure not only has the characteristics of lightweighting, the mobile phone battery is also more uniform in charging standards, and a shared charging treasure can be used by all mobile phones.
Because the power exchange mode has not yet formed a unified pattern, the battery technology, standards and specifications between car companies are very different, the construction of the replacement power station is not mutually exclusive, there are obstacles to the large-scale circulation of batteries, and the lack of industrial chain synergy effect. The superimposed substation assets are heavier, the terminal demand is limited, and the operation efficiency of the substation is relatively low.
Therefore, if the power exchange model wants to break through the profit dilemma and achieve commercial sustainability, it must solve the problem of operational efficiency, which is based on scale, and in order to achieve scale, unified standards are essential.
Taking GB/T 34013-2017 "Electric Vehicle Power Battery Product Specification Size" as an example, there are as many as 145 types of batteries specified, and the battery module structure varies according to the model design.
There are also different types of power exchange methods such as side power exchange, sub-box power exchange, chassis power exchange, etc., resulting in different battery specifications and parameters, and it is difficult for car companies to realize the sharing of battery products and power exchange equipment.
In order to guide the development of the industry, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Swapping Infrastructure (Draft for Comments) on May 20, 2021, proposing to accelerate the promotion of power exchange models in specific areas and emphasizing the need to form a unified power exchange standard.
On August 14, 2021, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued the "Specification for the Construction of Electric Passenger Vehicle Sharing and Replacement Power Stations" (Draft for Comments), which includes the top-level design of the standard, the main framework and technical route of the shared replacement power station, etc., and recommends the typical tolerance of the battery pack for the chassis power exchange to improve the economy of sharing and exchange.
At the same time, it also stipulates the technical requirements for the liquid-cooled connector and electrical connector of the electric vehicle sharing battery exchange box, requiring that the insertion and removal life of the liquid-cooled connector and the electrical connector should be greater than 10,000 times, and stipulating that the external dimensions of the power exchange connector should meet the recommended standards.
Subsequently, the national standard OF GB/T 40032-2021 "Electric Vehicle Replacement Safety Requirements" proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and centralized by the National Standards Commission was officially implemented on November 1.
As the first basic general-purpose national standard formulated by the automotive industry in the field of power exchange, this standard fills the gap in the standard of the automotive industry and solves the urgent problem that there is no standard for the power exchange mode.
The successive introduction of battery standards and power exchange safety regulations is bound to promote the standardization of power exchange. With a unified standard, the next thing to solve is the problem of substation operation.
In October last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Application of the New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model", and Wuhan was included in the pilot scope as a comprehensive application city.
In order to find out the current operation of the substation, we came to a substation located in Hanyang Cheyou Road in Wuhan.
Figure/Parity
When asked about the cost and operation of the substation, the on-site staff told the odd couple that this is the latest generation of substations, the total cost is close to 10 million, mainly because there are more batteries stored in the station, there are 60 pieces, the service capacity is also very high, the entire power exchange process is only 1.5 minutes, and the maximum number of trains can be served every day.
Regarding the charging method, the staff said that the current charging standard is calculated in the form of 0.3 yuan per kilometer. Each time a vehicle enters the substation, the current meter mileage will be entered, and the price will be calculated minus the number of kilometers entered last time.
However, such a huge investment, in fact, every day to change the number of vehicles is very small, the staff said that because the current pilot has just begun, and the replacement power station at the same time on the line of only 100 taxis, the same substation in Wuhan there are several, after the replacement of more cars, can reach 60% of the service ceiling can start to make money.
That is to say, if the current replacement power station wants to be profitable, it must achieve sufficient utilization. Therefore, starting with operating vehicles may be the fastest way to achieve this. The characteristics of these vehicles are that people do not stop, the demand for endurance time in double-shift operation, and the demand for timely replenishment of electricity is more sensitive than that of ordinary private cars.
Compared with the charging model, the driver takes over the shift, waiting for more than an hour before the charging pile, and replacing the battery at the replacement power station, as long as it takes a few minutes, the time saved can run a lot more.
At the same time, these vehicles can maintain greater unity at the beginning of design and manufacture, battery standardization is not difficult, and in the vehicle-to-electricity separation, battery rental mode, the operating company's car purchase and car cost will be reduced.
According to founder securities calculations, assuming that the total mileage per year is 120,000 kilometers, the average charging price is 1.2 yuan / kWh, the average replacement price is 1.5 yuan / kWh, the energy replacement cost includes the opportunity cost calculation caused by the energy replacement price and the time of replenishment, the taxi driver's hourly salary is 45 yuan, and the replacement taxi saves 0.9 million yuan per year compared with the charging taxi.
The market for operating vehicles takes Wuhan as an example, currently has 47,600 operating vehicles such as taxis and online ride-hailing vehicles, and if all the alternatives can be realized in the future, the average daily potential power exchange demand is 90,000 times, and the daily transaction volume reaches 4 million yuan, and the potential of the power exchange market is huge.
Since it is in the early stage of the pilot at this stage, in the long run, the larger market compared to the operating vehicle is still on the C-end.
For individual car owners, the advantages of power exchange are obvious, power exchange and refueling are as convenient, can greatly improve the car experience, and do not have to worry about battery attenuation and life problems.
Even car owners with fixed charging stations will choose to use power exchange services because power exchanges are safer, faster, better experience, or in scenarios such as high speeds, so power exchanges and charging are not in conflict.
For OEMs, it is necessary to choose between vehicle-to-electric separation and CTC (integrated electric chassis). CTC can improve the utilization of space and the passability of the chassis, improve the driving experience, but also face the shortcomings of high fault maintenance costs and difficult battery recovery.
The most intuitive feeling of the separation of vehicle and electricity to consumers may be the decline in the price of new energy vehicles. At present, the battery cost accounts for about 25% to 40% of the cost of electric vehicles, and the separation of vehicles and electricity through the power exchange mode can make the purchase cost of electric vehicles lower than that of fuel vehicles of the same level and solve the problem of expensive cars. This is also more conducive to promoting the sales scale of OEMs and further reducing costs.
Therefore, the risk of OEMs choosing CTC without strong brand technical capabilities to form a blockbuster model is extremely high. The market has verified that the battery capacity density is constantly increasing, and the high-efficiency mode of a standard battery pack for different models is an inevitable choice for OEMs.
Nowadays, with more and more OEMs and upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain joining the power exchange, the vehicle-electricity separation ecosystem has gradually taken shape, and with standardized standards and advanced layout of the replacement power station, the power exchange is entering a benign development.
In the future, it is enough to wait for the penetration rate of power-changing vehicles to increase, which is the least worrying problem for the market.
Swapping power goes beyond swapping
In cases where the direction is already clear, the power swap mode will achieve rapid penetration. According to market forecasts, it is expected that by 2025, the total sales volume of power replacement models will exceed 3 million; the scale of supporting substations will exceed 28,000 seats, corresponding to a market size of 76.5 billion; the battery will be about 55GWh, corresponding to a market size of 38.8 billion; and the corresponding electricity revenue will be 216.8 billion.
With the rapid development of the power exchange industry, it will inevitably bring gains to some links in the industrial chain and will also give birth to some new development opportunities.
Photo: Huaxi Securities
The first is the upstream power battery manufacturers, vehicle-to-electricity separation, which means that one car and one battery will become one car with multiple batteries. On top of the original demand, the power battery will usher in incremental demand, and the manufacturers of all aspects of the power battery will continue to benefit.
The upstream power exchange equipment manufacturer is mainly responsible for providing the power exchange equipment. Power exchange technology roughly includes mechanical connection technology, electrical connection technology, coolant connection technology, monitoring technology. The vehicle end power exchange system is composed of mechanical connection parts, mechanical locking parts, and battery replacement box.
According to Huaxi Securities, by 2021, China has built about 1200 replacement power stations. Based on the growth trend of demand for new energy vehicles, it is expected that in 2025, the number of new domestic substations will reach more than 9,000.
According to the estimated number of substation ownership, the value of domestic substation equipment in 2021 will be 1.7 billion yuan, and the industry is still in its infancy. It is estimated that by 2025, the demand for new power exchange equipment in China will reach 12 billion yuan, and upstream power exchange equipment manufacturers will also usher in demand growth.
While changing power has brought greater market space to the upstream of the industrial chain, it has also opened up a new market for the construction of substations and operators in the middle reaches. They are mainly responsible for the construction and operation of the substation, providing power exchange services to the market, but it is not just as simple as changing the power.
Nowadays, in the vehicle-to-electricity separation mode, the substation has gradually explored the cascade recycling of batteries and "battery banking" and other businesses.
In the "battery bank" model, users can share the battery and charge a certain amount of rental income every month according to the usage.
The cascade recycling not only realizes the whole life cycle management of the battery, further reduces the cost of battery use, but also undertakes a certain energy storage task under China's double carbon target, and can achieve two-way interaction with the power grid.
According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, in 2020, the cumulative number of decommissioned power batteries in China will exceed 200,000 tons, and the market size will reach 10 billion yuan; by 2025, the scale of China's waste power battery recycling market will exceed 40 billion yuan; by 2030, the recovery of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries will become a 100 billion-level market.
At present, some substations have built photovoltaic power generation microgrids, and the generated electricity is stored in energy storage power stations made of decommissioned batteries. Each substation can be seen as a distributed energy storage station in an urban area, and when the city needs emergency power, it can also reverse the power supply to the grid.
One of the advantages of the power swap mode is that it can extend the life cycle of the power battery. On this basis, if the value of the power battery can be fully tapped through cascade utilization and other ways, and the battery asset side can be fed back, it will be more conducive to the reduction of the purchase cost of electric vehicles.
At present, battery companies, power companies, and cascade utilization enterprises have jointly established battery asset management companies, leveraged the power exchange industry chain, and opened the energy storage, battery rental and purchase, cascade utilization, dismantling and recycling industrial chain.
Battery asset management companies undertake battery costs and obtain benefits through battery life management, thereby sharing costs, forming a closed loop of power exchange business model.
Therefore, power exchange not only drives the incremental development of power batteries and power exchange equipment, but also gives birth to a new service industry at the operation end, thereby reducing battery costs and ultimately promoting the further promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles.
Write at the end
In the early days, due to the lack of standards for battery-related technologies and equipment, the ownership of new energy vehicles was extremely low, and the development of power exchange was interrupted due to the unsustainable business model.
Nowadays, with the policy turning again to support power exchange, battery technology, equipment, etc. tend to be standardized, the business model is mature, the power exchange technology is constantly iterating, and more importantly, the new energy vehicles show explosive growth, so that the power exchange has the prerequisites for vigorous development again, and also brings new growth space and development opportunities to the entire industrial chain.
Compared with charging, the power exchange mode occupies an absolute advantage in energy efficiency, and efficient energy replenishment and unified battery management can effectively improve the level of social resource utilization, while optimizing the user's car purchase and energy replenishment experience.
With the realization of multi-party benefits of the power exchange model, the power exchange model has more advantages in the overall economy of the industry.
In the future, with the cost reduction and large-scale procurement effect of the battery manufacturing end, the battery procurement expenditure has room for further decline, and the increase in battery cycle life is accompanied by the decline in battery depreciation costs, and the situation of heavy assets in the replacement power station will also be improved.
The issue of operational efficiency, which is related to profitability, will not be a problem under the growth trend determined by new energy vehicles.
Resources:
1. "Depth of New Energy Replacement Industry" - Founder Securities
2. "Power Exchange Equipment Industry Report" - Huaxi Securities
3. "Weilai gambles on electricity exchange, and has to do "bad business"" - Wang Hailu
4. Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Application of the New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model - Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
5. "The power exchange model is budding, what is the development prospect of the industry?" - Chen Xianfan, Deng Xue