In these years, experts are a derogatory term, but any expert who comes out to say something will be criticized wildly. However, we can't blame the masses of the people, the key is that some experts really don't say the same thing, such as this one big talk:
Ren Zeping believes that the main reason is that we cannot expect to have children after 90 and 00, and we must seize the time window of 75-85 years. Because this group of people from 75 to 85 years still has the concept of having many children and many blessings, and the post-90s and post-00s are not even willing to get married.
A stone stirs up thousands of waves, and the suggestion immediately triggers a heated discussion on the Internet.
Netizens have said that the post-80s are really miserable, and the wool has caught this generation.
According to the expert Ren Zeping, the women born in 1975-1985 are 37-47 years old this year, which is an advanced maternal age. At this age, is it still a bit difficult to be a person?
According to the CGSS (China Comprehensive Social Survey) of Chinese Min University and other survey results, the fertility willingness of the post-90s and post-00s is indeed lower than that of the post-70s and post-80s, but according to the fertility survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the main fertility force in recent years is women aged 20-34.
Some netizens calculated an account:
In the post-80s generation, a couple has to support 4 elderly people, take care of 3 children, and buy 3 sets of marriage houses.
After 996, I escaped the elimination of 35 years old, and I was fortunate to endure a body of illness until I retired at the age of 65.
Then, retire and pull 3 * 3 = 9 grandchildren.
Ah, it feels suffocating to think about.
From the perspective of fertility rate, in recent years, the birth rate has repeatedly reached new lows. In 2018, there were 15.23 million births, and the birth rate was 10.94 per thousand, which was the lowest since the data existed in 1952. In 2019, the birth population was 14.65 million, and the birth rate was 10.48 ‰, which was a new low. In 2020, 12 million people were born, and the birth rate dropped to 8.50 ‰.
Therefore, the country let go of the second child in the past few years, but the result was not satisfactory.
With the release of the accumulated willingness to have children, it immediately entered the past normal - those who did not want to get married or did not want to get married, and those who did not want to have children or did not want to have children, resulting in a continuous decline in the birth population.
Why is it that now that various policies have been introduced and implemented, everyone is still reluctant to have children?
Education, employment, and housing are the three mountains that weigh down on the heads of ordinary people today.
This is also the reason why the actual birth population of the "comprehensive two-child" policy is much lower than the forecast.
"A couple can have three children" has nothing to do with "increasing willingness to have children" because of this policy:
1. Did not improve the fertility environment.
2. There is no reduction in the pressure to raise.
Even if there is a three-child policy now, those who do not want to give birth will still not give birth.
1. The cost of raising children is too high
There is a saying that goes like this: "Life will be easy not to do two things: to have children and to buy a house." ”
Raising children is indispensable to these items: pregnancy, childbirth, education and living expenses, which add up to really not cheap.
In 2005, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences mentioned in a report that it costs 490,000 yuan for ordinary Chinese families to raise a child to adulthood. In addition to the basic living and medical expenses, the rest is all education funds. After 11 years of development, the total GDP increased from 18.2 trillion yuan to 67.7 trillion yuan in 2015, what about the cost of having a child?
An online post titled "Ranking of Fertility Costs in China's Top Ten Cities" said that Beijing has the highest cost of childcare, and the lowest cost of raising a child in Beijing to go to college is 800,000; the highest cost is 8 million.
Some people will question: Before we were so poor, didn't our parents still have several children? All well-bred.
Because the higher the level of education and cognition, the higher the requirements for having children.
In ancient times, children were born at will, because they thought that it was just a matter of eating with one more mouth, and adding more bowls of rice when cooking was enough.
Later, I learned that children should be educated, strengthen their physique, and keep up with nutrition.
Now children have to eat imported milk powder, pollution-free vegetables, go to school to go to a good school, and buy a school district house. Extracurricular classes are one after another, and one competition is expensive.
Because the countryside does not consider eugenics, children are born more.
Unfortunately, because of limited education and insufficient resources, even if they have a litter, most of them are trapped in the class of their parents and cannot move.
The more educated a person is, the better he is raised, the more civilized he is, the more he can understand: raising a child, not a pet, you need to be responsible for him.
If you want your children to have a good career and a good life in the future, you have to pay for it from a young age.
2. Spending money is only the minimum cost of raising a child
When we were young, our parents did not find it difficult to raise a child, and the conditions at that time were very different from those of now, but we now feel that it is more difficult to raise a child than to ascend to the sky.
Because it's easy to raise a child, but it's really super difficult to raise a child. In the past, it was only required to raise the child safely and eat mixed food, and the parents were very satisfied. And now we are not short of food and clothing, the expectations of raising children are different, we want to raise a good child.
And in order to raise this child, you have to sacrifice yourself and put in a lot of extra investment.
Say goodbye to some entertainment. Say goodbye to the beauty salon, stop the swimming card, and never worry about doing nails.
Cancel travel plans for at least two years. The world is so big, honestly stay at home, guarding the diaper milk powder flying together, bottles and cans piled up. Not to mention poetry and far away, even going out to eat a skewer has to sneak out while the child is asleep. This is still the case when someone at home helps to take care of it. If the mother brought her own child, she really did not dare to go anywhere.
Again, there is a temporary pause in career and income. Can not travel, socializing, temporarily leaving the post, handing over the work, it is also possible to lie in bed in advance under special circumstances, rest, and protect the fetus. It doesn't matter whether the unit leader has a face to look at you, but you definitely don't want to think about the future of promotion in recent years.
There is no longer enough sleep, this crying and that making trouble, at least until the child is 2 years old before the situation will get better.
I asked a friend of the two children at home, she had just been busy with the eldest school choice problem, and now she was inspecting the kindergarten for the second eldest. As the economic pillar of the family, the husband is busy every day to the ground, flying around the country, and countless meetings are waiting for him. As a wife, she is not much better, and on weekends, she is occupied by the boss's extracurricular classes and interest classes, and she has to accompany her second brother to read picture books and learn English.
Neither of them had any private space. The last time the two of them went on a separate date was before the eldest was born.
We've known each other for years, but we've never been shopping together, and all of her shopping time is spent scouring on her commute — that's how the whole family's clothes are solved.
Although she is not short of money, she does not have time to be a parent who wants to be responsible for her children. The life of two children can be breathless indeed.
Such a life will not be relieved until at least until the child goes to college.
3. Invisible costs
The visible cost of raising a child we have made very clear, what about the invisible cost?
Children may delay the career of their parents (usually mothers), and disagreements over their children's education can undermine the relationship between husband and wife. There is no shortage of divorce incidents in life that are incompatible with the three views caused by the problem of children's education.
There is also irreplaceable work. Raising children for a hundred years, often worried about nine or nine. Even if you have a small cold and fever and diarrhea, you are still worried about the fire and can't sleep all night.
Even if an adult becomes a family, he cannot avoid worrying for him. Although some people say that this is a sweet burden, but who bears it knows.
Before having children and after having children, they are two completely different worlds. This is not a big problem for some women whose families are not under financial pressure and have low self-actualization needs.
But for many women with clear dreams, goals, and plans, it's a huge, irreparable problem that has to be carefully considered. This is also the reason why many women press the pause button at the threshold of childbearing.
Originally, the social environment was unfriendly to women and their unfriendly, the employment environment was worrisome, and then three children were born at once, a few years of maternity leave, and when they returned to society, what enterprise units were willing to want? Unless you are a particularly good and irreplaceable talent, it is really difficult to find a better job. Employers prefer to choose men who are young, have few things, and do not need to take care of the family, rather than use a mother who is older, has three children in the family, has to take leave of absence at home, and has to go to the parents' meeting three times a month.
It's hard to hear, but it's also true.
4. Why do we have children?
If the world is cruel, why do we still have children? Why continue to live?
This should be a philosophical question, which has countless answers: the continuation of the bloodline, the crystallization of love, the reproduction of human beings... Wait a minute.
But I would say that most people are trying to experience that beauty.
We have no right to deprive the unborn child of the right to enjoy all these wonderful details.
Pure sky, pleasant wind, quiet light rain, delicious food, joy of the game.....
What seems natural to us, not surprising, but what about unborn children? Shouldn't we have our children born and let them experience the beauty of this world?
It is undeniable that most people in this world to survive is indeed cruel, very painful and tired. But we can't deny that 10 percent happiness because of this 90 percent pain. It is precisely because most of the world is painful that it seems that happiness and beauty are particularly precious.
We cherish such beauty, and we should let the next generation see such beauty.
Marriage and procreation are not necessary options in life. Whether born or not, we must choose rationally, which is prudent for the child and responsible for ourselves.