Made in China is still one international car brand away.
Text/Shanshan Xu
In the past two decades, China's auto market has turned upside down. In 2001, China's total sales of passenger cars were 2.37 million, and by 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles alone have approached 3 million.
According to the latest data released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in the whole of 2021, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, the number of traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 1.02 million, and the increase of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, with a net increase of 860,000 units. Total retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.989 million units, up 169.1% year-on-year.
In terms of electrification, China has almost caught up with the world. Not only does it account for nearly half of the global electric vehicle market share, but the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles is also increasing rapidly.
According to the data from December last year, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 22.6%, and the annual penetration rate was 14.8%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
It is worth noting that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands in December was 39%,000; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 32.7%,; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.3%.
In 2021, the automotive industry suffered a series of black swan events caused by the epidemic, and production cuts and production suspensions continued to be stormy. Despite this, domestic auto independent brands have accelerated the electrification layout, new brands and new forces continue to emerge, and this year is expected to break through the red line of the annual sales target of 100,000 vehicles.
The rise of independent brands is the trend of the times
From backwardness and rise, to the process of electrification in the forefront of the world, the automotive industry has experienced the critical period of transformation of "Made in China".
Whether it is the electrification of the layout of traditional automobile manufacturers, or the new forces of car manufacturing represented by "Wei Xiaoli" have successively left the circle, it shows that Chinese car brands are knocking on the international door with "Chinese speed".
According to UBS statistics, from 2020 to 2022, the market value growth rate of "Wei Xiaoli" once exceeded THATD, of which the growth of Weilai Automobile was the most eye-catching.
"The rise of independent brands is the trend of the times," Gong Min, head of automotive research at UBS China, said at the media conference call of the 22nd UBS Greater China Symposium.
Image source: UBS
In the past year, the domestic electric vehicle market has been launched by luxury car brands, joint venture brands and independent brands. In the face of the strong enemies of the past, independent brands have not deterred, sales are stable and rising, of which the annual delivery of Wei Xiaoli in the first echelon has increased by more than 1.7 times year-on-year, and Xiaopeng Automobile has increased by 2.6 times.
Gong Min pointed out to the "Daily Car Observation" that to some extent, the new forces are making faster progress than traditional foreign luxury brands. This "faster" is reflected in the speed at which new forces launch new models and apply the latest technology; moreover, for luxury foreign brands, the brand premium formed on fuel vehicle products has not yet been fully substituted for electric vehicles.
In other words, the market opportunities in front of electric vehicle players are fair. This is undoubtedly great news for the new car-making forces.
According to UBS data, by 2025, China's electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 7 million, an increase of 2.3 times over 2021, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 30%, with a CAGR of 42% in 2020-2025. The scuffle in the electric vehicle market will be more intense.
As for whether luxury car brands eat dividends first, or independent brand electric vehicles counterattack successfully, in the end, it depends on the specific product cycle, as well as their grasp of market opportunities and so on.
Gong Min believes that this is a very dynamic process. The current lead does not mean the final ranking result. And the more intense the scene, the harder it is to guess the winner or loser: who will rise, who will encounter bottlenecks, who will become the next "Tesla"...
The future seems uncertain.
The dual challenges of supply and demand
In such a fierce competitive environment, the market situation is full of twists and turns, forcing car companies to accelerate technological iteration and innovation. This may mean that anyone can become a giant.
Under the continuous progress, it is also necessary to face up to the challenges facing the new energy automobile industry, including: rising raw material prices and real figures on the demand side.
The epidemic is not over, and the rise in raw material prices has become one of the most headaches for depots. According to UBS's preliminary estimates, compared with 2020, the cost of a fuel vehicle will increase by about 5,000 yuan in 2021, while the cost of electric vehicles including power batteries will rise by more than 10,000 yuan.
Image source: Network
Recently, the price of lithium, cobalt and other metal elements in EV battery materials has almost soared, adding variables to the yield of car manufacturers. In addition, the shortage of chips plaguing the world has further eased, but it may be another uncertainty for the demand side.
Gong Min pointed out that the easing of chip shortages will bring about a recovery on the supply side. This year's auto market may shift from last year's "short supply" to "oversupply".
Affected by the shortage of automotive chips, the world's major large automakers have reduced production to varying degrees last year. However, as chip supply returns to normal, automakers are bound to increase production to fill the shortfall in profits. When global car companies are in step with each other, oversupply is inevitable.
Whether the above problems will trigger a price war in the automotive industry is another challenge that car companies may face. Under the low-price competition, Ann has the finished egg? Gong Min said bluntly that the demand for automotive terminals may not be as strong as expected.
Whether it is a traditional car company or a new force, it should be prepared as soon as possible.
Write at the end
Automobile manufacturing has always been a major event in the manufacturing industry, whether it is the contribution of output value to the economy or the impact of scale on employment, it is quite considerable. This massive electrification revolution is pushing Chinese brands to the center of the world stage at an alarming speed.
For Chinese manufacturing, there is always an international car brand.