JW Insights believes:
Since the epidemic, the stability of the global semiconductor industry supply chain and production have been greatly affected, and chip shortages have become almost an inevitable problem in many industries, especially in the automotive industry. Under the trend of intelligence, electrification and networking, the demand for chips in automobiles is increasing day by day, and the shortage of chip supply has become the biggest obstacle to the development of the automobile industry.
Although with the gradual easing of the epidemic, the supply chain problem has been gradually solved, but because the recovery speed of the supply chain is much smaller than expected, and due to the impact of the epidemic in Malaysia and other places this year, the supply problem of the automotive chip industry chain has intensified.
So in this case, will domestic auto chip manufacturers usher in new opportunities, and which areas will be the focus of breakthroughs for domestic manufacturers?
Chip shortages are compressing the growth of the global semiconductor market
Beginning in 2021, the recovery of the global economy and the easing of the epidemic began to stimulate the outbreak of global end market demand, which promoted the market demand for semiconductor devices.
IDC expects smartphone sales to rebound from -6.7 percent in 2020 to 5.5 percent in 2021; in 2020, the PC market will grow by 13 percent, and growth will be stronger in 2021, with PC sales up 18 percent. In addition, Wards Intelligence and Morningstar expect light vehicle shipments to grow strongly by 11 percent in 2021 after falling 15 percent in 2020.
It can be said that almost all important end products have seen a substantial recovery and rebound in 2021. This has also led to a huge increase in global semiconductor sales in 2021.
According to data released by WSTS and SIA in August 2021, global semiconductor sales will reach $559 billion in 2021, compared with $440.39 billion in 2020, an increase of 25.1%. Notably, WSTS adjusted this figure in November, with a growth rate of 25.6% and revenue of $552.96 billion.
At the same time, WSTS has made a new forecast adjustment to the world semiconductor industry revenue in 2022, from the August forecast growth rate of 10.1% to a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, down 1.3 percentage points (down nearly $5 billion), is expected to be $601.4 billion.
JW insights believes that the reason for this downward adjustment is that, first of all, the demand for the semiconductor industry brought about by the global economic recovery in 2021 is a temporary explosive demand, and the premise of huge growth is that the global market will shrink in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. As the market gradually returns to normal in 2021, after a brief outbreak, the market demand will return to a rational state.
Secondly, chip shortages have compressed the growth of the global semiconductor market, and WSTS has emphasized that stocks will limit the growth of the global semiconductor market in 2021 when updating the data. However, from the current situation, the impact of the epidemic on the global semiconductor supply chain will not only be limited to 2021, but will even continue to 2022 and 2023.
The automotive semiconductor market continues to grow steadily
JW insights believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, the global economy continued to slump in 2020, which also greatly reduced the market demand for automobiles, and this trend is also reflected in the size of the global semiconductor market: in 2020, the global automotive semiconductor market size is about 38.5 billion US dollars, accounting for about 8.74% of the global semiconductor market. This is down about 8% compared to 2019.
IHS has previously predicted that the global automotive semiconductor market size will be $38 billion in 2020, benefiting from the impact of automotive electrification, intelligence and networking trends, the automotive semiconductor market will continue to expand, and is expected to grow to $67.6 billion by 2026.
It can be said that electrification, intelligence and networking are the three fastest growing technology trends in the current automotive industry. From the rise of Tesla to the steady growth of the domestic "Wei Xiaoli", the product standards and business models of the related automotive industry are also developing tremendous changes.
If it is said that before the epidemic, the global automobile market was a situation where traditional car manufacturers eat everything, then the arrival of the epidemic has compressed the sales space of traditional car manufacturers under certain circumstances, and the new forces have provided more possible development of car manufacturing and sales models.
JW insights believes that although in the current situation, the lack of core cores in global automotive chips is a common state, and this state is particularly obvious due to the strong time lag and weak adjustable type of automotive semiconductor supply chain. However, it is not difficult to find that traditional automakers have not performed better under the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage.
In a june 2021 report, IC Insights noted that automotive chips need to be rigorously tested to guarantee their reliability, while chipmakers are required to be able to provide long-term supply needs. This is also the biggest difference between automotive chips and other types of chips. This is the characteristic that makes the supply chain of automotive chips more and more fragile under the impact of the epidemic.
However, IC Insights also pointed out that in fact, the automotive semiconductor market grew by 23% in the first quarter of 2021, the same growth rate as the global semiconductor market. It can be said that although the automotive market has also been affected by the shortage of chips, its market performance has not declined due to the epidemic, which is consistent with the overall market.
The Asian automotive semiconductor market has become a global center of gravity
According to Inkwood Research, automotive semiconductors in the Asia-Pacific region are currently the world's largest market, and this trend will become more pronounced in the coming years. In 2020, sales of automotive semiconductors in the Asia-Pacific region reached $17.6 billion, and by 2028, this figure is expected to double to $35.8 billion.
It is worth noting that although the Chinese auto market was once affected by the epidemic in 2020, it did not affect the growth of the market. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's annual automobile sales reached 25.311 million units, ranking first in the world for 12 consecutive years.
At the same time, China's automobile exports are also continuing to grow, with auto companies exporting 187,000 vehicles in August this year, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. In the first eight months, auto companies exported 1.189 million units, up 1.3 times year-on-year. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first eight months, the export delivery value of China's automobiles (including chassis) was 137.7 billion yuan, an increase of 111.1% year-on-year. In addition, China's new energy vehicle ownership accounts for about 50% of the world, the penetration rate of intelligent networked vehicles exceeds 15%, and the automobile industry has a first-mover advantage in the new energy and intelligent networked vehicle track.
According to October data, China's automobile production reached 2.33 million units and 2.333 million units, respectively, up 12.2% and 12.8% month-on-month. Among them, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is more obvious. Production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow month-on-month and year-on-year, with production and sales reaching record highs of 397,000 units and 383,000 units, respectively.
JW insights believes that from the perspective of the production and sales of cars in the Chinese market, under the impetus of government policies, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles will increase rapidly in the next few years. At the same time, due to the high degree of consumer acceptance of new concepts and new functions such as new energy vehicles, these areas will continue to maintain a rapid growth rate in the next few years.
It is not difficult to find that new technologies such as automatic driving, 5G, ADAS, in-vehicle navigation, infotainment and intelligent interaction are all hot spots for domestic enterprises, and they have also been warmly welcomed by capital, and the application of these technologies often brings about the rapid increase in the proportion of automotive semiconductors in the car.
New forces car manufacturing and domestic semiconductor companies need to support each other
It is worth noting that the automotive semiconductor market, especially the high-end market, is almost monopolized by overseas companies.
According to data released by Strategy Analytics, Infineon, NXP and Renesas will remain the world's leading suppliers of automotive semiconductors in 2020. Due to the high threshold of automotive electronics and the long certification period required to enter automobile manufacturers, leading enterprises in Europe, The United States and Japan have maintained a high market share based on their long-term accumulated technology and market advantages. Infineon, NXP, Renesas, TI and ST account for 50% of the market.
From the data released by Strategy Analytics, it is not difficult to find that even in 2020, when the impact of the epidemic and chip shortages, the market share of the top five automotive semiconductor manufacturers has not fluctuated too much, and even the total share has also increased to a certain extent.
JW insights believes that the main reasons for this situation are: first, the certification cycle of the automobile supply chain is long, the requirements for products are higher, and the short-term impact of the epidemic is difficult to affect the car factory to replace the supply chain; secondly, due to the long-term technology accumulation of European, American and Japanese manufacturers, it is difficult for other manufacturers to enter the supply chain of the car factory in the short term.
With the rise of new forces to build cars, the competitive structure of the automotive semiconductor market is constantly changing, especially with the application of technologies such as automatic driving and artificial intelligence, more new players are joining in addition to the traditional automotive semiconductor market. For example, Nvidia continues to introduce chips for automotive applications, and Qualcomm has also recently launched its new plan for the automotive market.
At the same time, it is not difficult for us to find that the new forces of car manufacturing are gradually cooperating with chip manufacturers who have just entered this field, trying to break the strong combination of traditional manufacturers from a new perspective. Although it is difficult to see the effect in the short term, in the long run, it will also rewrite the market pattern, and this is a new opportunity for domestic automotive semiconductor manufacturers! (Proofreading/Kapok)