JW Insights believes:
-The "era of electric vehicles" is coming, and the competitive landscape in the global market will become more and more intense. The mainland has built its own advantages in the field of automotive batteries and motors, but there have been shortcomings in the IGBTs required in electronic control, and the mainstream device market for high-end IGBTs has been monopolized by European, American and Japanese companies for a long time, such as Infineon, Mitsubishi, Fuji Electric, ON Semiconductor, ABB, etc., which may restrict the medium- and long-term development of the mainland's new energy automobile industry.
-The Company's competitive landscape is quietly changing in the IGBT market, which was previously dominated by foreign manufacturers, especially in the automotive sector. For more people to know, the Chinese manufacturers who are working in the field of automotive IGBT include BYD Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric and Star Semiconductor. However, a further analysis of the "Top 100 Chinese Semiconductor Enterprises (2021)" ranking found that more and more domestic IGBT manufacturers are laid out in the automotive field and have been supplied, including Silan Micro (10th), Jilin Huawei (35th), Hongwei Technology (87th), etc., which can be seen as a major sign of breakthrough progress in domestic automotive IGBT.
- Under the fierce competition pattern, manufacturers who adopt the IDM model in the field of IGBT have more advantages and are more conducive to developing the new energy vehicle market. However, there is no lack of risk in this field, because the future trend is: automotive power devices will gradually use the mosFET scheme of the third generation of semiconductor silicon carbide to replace the current silicon material IGBT scheme, and the R&D, design, verification and other cycles of automotive grade chips, as well as the construction of production capacity to supporting also need at least 3-5 years, and the investment is huge, and the rest of the work can be reached.
IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor, also known as power semiconductor) is known as the "strongest brain" of new energy vehicles, is the core component of the new energy vehicle electronic control system, can directly control the whole vehicle drive system straight, AC conversion and power regulation, motor frequency conversion and other core indicators, its performance will directly determine the torque and output power of the new energy vehicle, accounting for about 8% to 10% of the cost of the vehicle.
As far as the application areas of IGBT are concerned, new energy vehicles will undoubtedly be the fastest growing market area in the next few years. Yole's 2021 data shows that in 2020-2026, although the new energy vehicle market is not the largest market for IGBT applications, the demand for IGBT in this market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23% during this period, which is behind the global trend of vehicle electrification.
Electrification speeds up, mainland vehicle IGBT demand surges but there are "short boards"
In 2021, global sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, reaching 6.75 million units, an increase of 108% year-on-year. JW insights pointed out that from the perspective of the global market pattern, the sales of global new energy vehicles in 2021 are mainly contributed by the Chinese and European markets, considering that the new new energy vehicle policy in the United States in 2022 is coming, 2022 or will be "three-legged" by China and europe, and with the end of 2021, Japanese car companies Toyota, Honda, etc. finally announced the electrification strategy, the next three years, global electrification will accelerate.
China's new energy vehicle market will continue to lead the world in 2021. According to the 2021 automobile sales data released by the China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales of domestic automobiles in the whole year were 26.275 million units, of which 3.521 million units were sold for new energy vehicles, and the market share jumped from about 5% in 2020 to 13.4%. It can be seen that China's new energy vehicle market will enter a stage of rapid development, and the China Automobile Association predicts that the total sales of mainland vehicles in 2022 will be 27.5 million, of which new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5 million, with a penetration rate of 18.2%.
In the past two years, the European market can be comparable to the development of the Chinese market, 2020 and 2021 can be said to be the rise of the European new energy vehicle market in the two years, its new energy vehicle sales in 2020 also once surpassed China, 2021 also performed well, the annual sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.338 million, an increase of 66% year-on-year, penetration rate of about 21%. At the same time, the top countries in the global new energy vehicle penetration rate are also concentrated in Europe, such as Norway, which has almost fully completed the new energy, and the annual new energy penetration rate is as high as 86%.
Entering 2021, driven by the U.S. electric vehicle support policy, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States have grown strongly, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles has also hit a record high, with sales of nearly 670,000 new energy vehicles in 2021, an increase of more than 100% year-on-year, and the penetration rate is 4.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points over 2020.
As for the Japanese market, new energy vehicles will sell less than 50,000 units in 2021, but at the end of 2021, Toyota, an automaker that has been dragging its feet in the field of electric vehicles for too long, also announced its own "electrification strategy", which almost marks the consensus reached by car companies around the world: electrification is in the near future.
JW insights believes that the "era of electric vehicles" is coming, and the competitive landscape of the global market will become more and more intense. In the future, whether China can always sit on the champion throne of the new energy vehicle market, independent and controllable technology is undoubtedly the core competitiveness, especially the "three electric system" - battery, motor, electronic control. Looking at the market, the mainland has built its own advantages in the field of automotive batteries and motors, but the IGBTs required in electronic control have always had shortcomings, and for a long time, the mainstream device market of high-end IGBTs has been monopolized by European and American and Japanese enterprises, such as Infineon, Mitsubishi, Fuji Electric, ON Semiconductor, ABB, etc., which may restrict the medium- and long-term development of the mainland's new energy automobile industry.
In the mainland vehicle IGBT market, the competitive landscape is quietly changing
Based on the "Top 100 Chinese Semiconductor Companies (2021)" list released by Aijiwei on December 25, 2021, as well as the public information of domestic manufacturers that have been supplied in the field of automotive IGBTs, as well as the data of Yole and Omdia, JW insights believes that the competition pattern of the IGBT market, which was originally dominated by foreign manufacturers, especially in the automotive field, is quietly changing.
For more people to know, the Chinese manufacturers who are working in the field of automotive IGBT include BYD Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric and Star Semiconductor. However, a further analysis of the "Top 100 Chinese Semiconductor Enterprises (2021)" ranking found that more and more domestic IGBT manufacturers are laid out in the automotive field and have been supplied, including Silan Micro (10th), Jilin Huawei (35th), Hongwei Technology (87th), etc., which can be seen as a major sign of breakthrough progress in domestic automotive IGBT.
The strength of BYD Semiconductor has been obvious to all, and the field of automotive IGBT is enough to compete with the giants of Europe, America and Japan. ACCORDING TOD Semiconductor's prospectus shows that in the field of IGBT, according to Omdia statistics, in terms of IGBT module sales in 2019, it ranks second among the global manufacturers of IGBT modules for motor drive controllers in new energy passenger cars in China, second only to Infineon, with a market share of 19%, ranking first among domestic manufacturers, and in 2020, it will continue to maintain the leading position of global manufacturers and the first domestic manufacturers in this field.
BYD Semiconductor's production capacity layout in the field of IGBT is also expected to accelerate the pace of domestic substitution. In 2020, BYD invested 1 billion yuan to establish the BYD IGBT project in Changsha, which is designed to produce a production line with an annual output of 250,000 8-inch wafers, which can meet the production capacity demand of 500,000 new energy vehicles per year after production. It is reported that in 2020, the production capacity of BYD IGBT chip wafers has exceeded 50,000 pieces / month, and will reach 100,000 pieces / month in 2021, which can supply 1.2 million new energy vehicles a year. At the same time, at the end of February 2022, Jinan BYD Semiconductor Co., Ltd. said that Shandong's first 8-inch vehicle-grade power semiconductor chip project, which plans to produce 360,000 chips per year, has been put into production in January this year and is expected to reach full design capacity in the next year or so. In addition, after the spin-off and listing of BYD Semiconductor, it will further enhance the shipment capacity of the semiconductor business.
CRRC Electric Era because it does not belong to semiconductor companies, so it is not in the "China Semiconductor Enterprises Top 100 (2021)" list released by Aijiwei, but the strength should not be underestimated, it is the leader in the field of rail transit, built an 8-inch IGBT industrialization base, with a full set of independent technologies for chips, modules, components and applications, the current 750V and 1200V IGBT are also applied to new energy vehicles, and more advantageously, it has established a sound industrial chain of new energy vehicle electric drive systems. At present, it has launched multiple platforms of electric drive system products for the market, which are applied to pure electric and hybrid passenger cars, and has carried out in-depth project cooperation with domestic first-class automobile manufacturers such as FAW Group and Changan Automobile to achieve mass product delivery performance. In the field of power semiconductor devices, the revenue in 2020 is 801 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the total revenue.
In star semiconductor's main business, although the proportion of automotive IGBTs is not high, it is the largest part of its growth. Omdia's data shows that in the 2020 IGBT module manufacturer market share, Star Semiconductor ranked sixth with a market share of 2.8%. In 2021, Star Semiconductor continues to increase in the automotive field, from the company's 2021 semi-annual report, the first half of 2021 to achieve a total revenue of 718.9367 million yuan, of which the new energy industry operating income of 183.5483 million yuan, an increase of 106.09% over the same period of the previous year, accounting for 25.5%. In the first half of 2021, its production of vehicle-grade IGBT modules for the main motor controller continued to increase, with a total of more than 200,000 new energy vehicles, and the number of supporting vehicles is expected to further increase in the second half of the year.
Star Semiconductor continues to invest. In the first half of 2021, 650V/750V IGBT chips based on the sixth-generation Trench Field Stop technology and modules supporting fast recovery diode chips will add a number of dual-electronic hybrid and pure electric vehicle type main motor controller platform fixed points, which will provide a continuous impetus to the sales growth of the company's new energy vehicle IGBT modules in 2023-2029; in addition, the new generation of automotive specification grade 650V/650V/ based on the seventh-generation micro trench Field Stop technology The 750V IGBT chip has been successfully developed and is expected to be supplied in batches in 2022.
Hongwei Technology and Star Semiconductor both belong to Fabless, and their business models are similar, but their revenue in the field of new energy vehicle electronic control systems accounts for a smaller proportion. According to the company's prospectus, Hongwei Technology's revenue in the field of new energy vehicle electronic control systems in 2020 is 1.4654 million yuan, accounting for only 0.59% of the module revenue. In 2019, Hongwei Technology successfully developed the fourth generation of self-developed 750V IGBT chips, compared with the automotive IGBT2 product launched by Infineon in 2016, and the self-developed IGBT chip of the IGBT 7 series launched by Infineon in 2020 is still under development. At present, its vehicle-grade IGBT module GV series products have been realized to Zhen Drive Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. small batch supply, in 2019, 2020 to achieve sales revenue of 395,000 yuan and 1.2276 million yuan, some customers Huichuan Technology, Hive Electric Drive Technology Hebei Co., Ltd. (Great Wall Motor subsidiary) and Magmite is still in the GV series of product certification.
Under the general trend of automobile electrification, some domestic manufacturers that have been deeply involved in the field of IGBT have also continued to exert efforts on the automotive track, especially the IGBT production lines of these domestic manufacturers have been put into mass production at the end of 2021, and it is expected that the domestic vehicle IGBT market pattern will undergo great changes in 2022. One of the most promising is Slangwei.
Judging from Yole's situation on the top 15 manufacturers in the field of IGBT revenue in 2020, only SilanWei ranked sixth with 158 million US dollars. However, the new energy vehicle business accounts for a small proportion of the overall business of Silan Micro. Looking at the future trend, in the first half of 2021, the main motor drive module of electric vehicles based on the V generation IGBT and FRD chips independently developed by the company has been tested by many customers in China, and some customers have begun to supply in batches. Moreover, in the first half of 2021, chengdu Jijia company, a subsidiary, has launched the implementation of the "first phase of the construction project of the automotive and industrial power module and power integrated device packaging production line".
Jilin Hua Microelectronics' IGBT products are the sixth generation of technology, and the products are mainly used in industrial control, white goods, small household appliances and automobiles. In December 2021, Jilin Hua Microelectronics said on the investor interaction platform that some of the company's IGBT products have been used in A0-class electric vehicles, and actively promoted the product verification of IGBT products in other car companies. It has to be said that taking mini cars as a breakthrough may accelerate the development of domestic main drive IGBT.
In addition, it is worth noting that Wingtech Technology, BGI Semiconductor, and China Resources Micro. In August 2021, Wingtech Technology completed the acquisition of 100% of the equity of NWF, the largest fab in the United Kingdom, and the maximum production capacity of NWF can be expanded to 44,000 8-inch wafers per month, and the main product applications also include automotive IGBT chips, which is bound to supplement Wingtech's supply capacity in the field of automotive IGBT chips. In July 2020, BGI Semiconductor successfully launched the first vehicle-grade 16pin isolated IGBT gate driver chip, which will fill the gap of the domestic isolated gate driver chip. In addition, China Resources Micro also said on the investor interaction platform on February 25 this year that its IGBT products have entered the vehicle application.
JW insights believes that with the gradual rise of the scale effect of new energy vehicles, its demand for automotive IGBT will continue to increase, of course, there are more and more participants, and in addition to the above semiconductor companies, or such as CRRC Electric Era has accumulated in this field, now there are also some OEMs to the upstream of the industrial chain to transfer manufacturing capacity, for example, in July 2021, Dongfeng Motor Semiconductor business IGBT module has been put into production, the total planned production capacity of the project is 1.2 million, To meet the IGBT demand of Dongfeng Group's new energy vehicles by 1 million sales by 2025, competition is bound to become more and more fierce for this track.
IDM has more advantages, and the quality and efficiency of supply will help to open up the new energy vehicle market
JW insights believes that in the long run, under the fierce competition pattern, BYD Semiconductor, CRRC Electric Times, Silan Wei and other manufacturers who adopt the IDM model in the field of IGBT have more advantages and are more conducive to opening up the new energy vehicle market.
On the one hand, it is related to the quality of the chip, the oem with a higher safety level has higher requirements for the life, reliability and failure efficiency of the chip, the chip needs to be screened and tested for multiple rounds to be packaged, and the packaged module still has to undergo strict testing before it can be shipped to the automaker. In particular, new energy vehicle electronic control system customers have higher requirements for product reliability, and when introducing new suppliers, they usually carry out strict supplier and product certification, and the certification cycle is long, and after passing the certification, customers will establish formal business cooperation with suppliers.
Compared with Fabless, the IDM model can ensure that OEMs control the quality of chips from the source of chip production, thereby ensuring the safety of the whole vehicle. Therefore, it is easier for manufacturers with wafer production lines to obtain orders from new energy vehicle manufacturers.
On the other hand, it is related to the stability and efficiency of supply, especially in the long cycle of car core shortage situation is more prominent. For example, the use of Fabless model of Hongwei Technology in its prospectus said that there is a risk in the purchase of chips, its largest supplier of IGBT chips Infineon is not only an important supplier of the company's chips, but also a competitor of the company's IGBT products, in view of the continuous changes and unpredictability of the international situation, it may be Infineon to cut off the supply of chips, which is very likely in the case of chip shortage.
Not only Hongwei Technology, Infineon is also the largest supplier of IGBT chips to Star Semiconductor, and at the end of February 2022, Infineon recently issued a notice to dealers that the imbalance between supply and demand of semiconductor production capacity will run through the whole of 2022, and under the influence of rising cost structure, it is no longer possible to digest the increased costs on its own, and it is intended to "distribute the burden on a broad basis." Although the specific price increase action is not clear this time, the intention is very obvious. Therefore, manufacturers who rely more heavily on Infineon will inevitably fall into the risk of shortage of goods or even supply shortages this year.
In contrast, IDM domestic manufacturers have an efficiency advantage in terms of supply, BYD Semiconductor previously pointed out that the current delivery time of domestic products is about 12 weeks, significantly higher than the delivery time of international manufacturers of 26 weeks-52 weeks; on the other hand, the product performance of power semiconductors is closely related to application scenarios, and a company has more than 100 kinds of products is the norm, which requires enterprises to have sensitivity to the market and be able to launch new products in a timely manner, using IDM mode, design, manufacturing and other links of collaborative optimization, can fully explore the technical potential.
It is under this trend that it can be seen that Star Semiconductor not only changed its business direction to automotive, but also began to transform from the Fabless model to the IDM model. It is reported that in the middle of 2021, an IGBT procurement summary disclosed by Ideal mentioned that in the case of Insufficient supply by Infineon, a number of suppliers such as Star Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric, ANDD Semiconductor were evaluated, and due to the condition of "preferring production lines", Star Semiconductor missed orders. In March 2021, Star Semiconductor announced that the company will raise no more than 3.5 billion yuan, of which 2 billion yuan will be used for high-voltage special process power chips and SiC chip research and development and industrialization projects, trying to expand its business radius, and this move may be particularly important for the future development of Star Semiconductor.
JW insights believes that there is no shortage of risks in this field of investment, because the future trend is: automotive power devices will gradually use the third generation of semiconductor silicon carbide MOSFET scheme to replace the current silicon material IGBT scheme, and the vehicle-grade chip research and development, design, verification and other cycles, as well as production capacity construction to supporting also take at least 3-5 years, and the investment is huge, non-Syu work can be reached.