The domestic car group beat Tesla, this statement sounds like a more war, more hilarious is not a big deal. But Tesla has indeed become the Highlander in the electric car, almost all competitors will be explicitly or covertly compared with it in the publicity, or hang it, and the trend of domestic wolves beating Tesla has actually formed.
The question is, in front of Tesla, is the current group of domestic cars a group of wolves or a flock of sheep? According to the wind direction of public opinion and the expectations of netizens, the domestic car is designated as a group of wolves, after all, Tesla's brand image has collapsed after the rights protection storm.
But is that really the case? Recently Tesla and many domestic electric vehicles have announced sales in 2021, today we will talk about the domestic electric vehicles and Tesla in terms of sales, in the end how big is the gap in technology? In 2022, can domestic cars snipe Tesla, or pull Tesla's sales off the horse?
Tesla sales are booming
On January 2, Tesla announced that in 2021, under the influence of chip shortages and capacity constraints, sales still soared by 87%, and deliveries reached 936,000 units, a record high. The Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 97% of total sales.
In China, according to the data of the Association, the total sales volume of Tesla from January to November was more than 250,000 vehicles. However, Tesla's wholesale sales in China are as high as more than 410,000 vehicles, accounting for about 44% of Tesla's total sales. This is mainly due to the fact that many models produced by the Shanghai plant have been exported to Europe.
In 2021, Musk expressed confidence in maintaining a 50% delivery growth rate, which seemed like a bragging data at the time, but now it is oversized. Among them, the production capacity of the Shanghai plant is the greatest.
Two points of interest in sales
There are two noteworthy points in Tesla's sales volume, one is that it is talking about the amount of delivery, that is, the car that is actually delivered to the user. What is the difference between delivery and sales? The first is that the difference is in the wide parking lot of the 4S store, that is, the inventory of the 4S store. The second is the difference between the left hand and the right hand of some car companies, through the establishment of travel companies, selling their own cars to their own established travel companies.
Honda XNV stock of electric vehicles
In addition, now some manufacturers, even began to take the order volume for publicity, the gap between the order volume and sales volume is still very far, and the difference between the delivery volume is even farther. In this way, Tesla is still very honest in terms of sales.
The second noteworthy thing is that the 930,000 vehicles reflect not demand, but production capacity. At present, if the Model 3 is decided, the delivery time is about 3-4 months, which means that Tesla has a backlog of orders for about three or four months. If production capacity can keep up, Tesla's sales in 2021 will certainly exceed 1 million.
Sales are expected to increase significantly next year
There are two reasons why Tesla's sales are optimistic about next year, the first is that Tesla's German factory, which has been repeatedly delayed by environmental protection issues, will finally start production in 2022. The first Model Y has now been photographed being shipped out of a German factory.
A batch of Model Y (suspected test vehicles) shipped from Tesla's German factory
With the blessing of the German factory, Tesla's production capacity problem can be greatly alleviated. In addition, if you don't have to wait for three or four months to buy a car, it will definitely make more people willing to choose Tesla.
The second reason is that Tesla is expected to launch a more entry-level model this year, which is expected to sell for around $25,000 (about 160,000). Previously, the network rumor will be named Model 2, but foreign media revealed that it may be called Model Q or Model C. No matter what the final name is, if Tesla goes down to about 160,000, sales will definitely increase dramatically.
Webcast Model 2 hypothetical diagram
Domestic electric vehicles are growing rapidly
But the gap is still wide
China's BYD
Tesla of the world
If the domestic electric car is a wolf, then BYD must be the first wolf. BYD will sell 730,000 units in 2021, of which 590,000 new energy vehicles will be sold. But these 590,000 vehicles contain DM-i plug-in hybrid and pure electricity, and if you only look at pure electric models, it is 320,000 vehicles. This sales are higher than Tesla's domestic sales, but only about one-third of Tesla's global sales.
Of course, BYD is also facing the impact of production capacity and chips, but in general, the gap with Tesla is still very large. Some people may say that Tesla is sold globally, and the vast majority of BYD's sales are from China, so it is unfair.
But I would like to say that being able to lay out the world, establish a sales network in the world, and let global consumers recognize it is a strength in itself. Most of BYD's sales come from China, not that it does not want to sell globally, but its current strength is not yet up to the mark.
"Wei Xiaoli" has risen gratifyingly
But not yet a level
The sales growth rate of the three Wei Xiaoli companies last year was very high, but the absolute number and Tesla are not yet an order of magnitude.
Although the growth rate is more than 100%, the sales volume of the three companies is almost the same, all of which are more than 90,000 vehicles. Compared with Tesla's performance of more than 900,000 vehicles worldwide, it is only about one-tenth, and Tesla's sales volume of 250,000 in China is still a long way off.
In addition to Wei Xiaoli, such as GAC Eian, Great Wall Euler, Geely Geometry, etc., these car companies are not only far behind Tesla in terms of sales, but also too far in terms of bicycle prices.
Of course, the Hongguang MINI EV is indeed a top-notch in terms of sales, but it and Tesla are not at all competitive, so we will not talk much.
Overall, whether it is Tesla, Wei Xiaoli, or traditional brand electric vehicles, the sales growth rate in 2021 is very large, but compared with Tesla's absolute sales, the gap is still very obvious.
As for the prospects for 2022, it can only be said that the general environment is good for all electric vehicle brands, and as for whether domestic cars can get better growth prospects than Tesla, this is really not necessary.
Technically overtaking Tesla?
Domestic cars already have certain advantages
First of all, it must be admitted that in such things as car-machine systems, intelligence, and even design, brain holes and creativity for electric vehicles, domestic electric vehicles have done better than Tesla. After all, domestic brands understand the needs and pain points of the Chinese people better, and the intelligence of the car, the domestic brand can be said to be the best in the world at present, almost none.
Extreme Kr 001 interior
In addition, in the endurance that everyone is most concerned about, domestic cars have also caught up. You know, the 2017 Model 3 endurance has reached 468km, and the domestic car endurance of 200-300km at that time is still the mainstream level. But now, domestic electric vehicles have long been equal to Tesla in terms of nominal endurance. Even domestic cars with a range of 1,000 kilometers have been released several times, of which GAC's AION LX PLUS has been officially launched.
Of course, Tesla's actual endurance is still relatively solid, but this is no longer a "generation difference", but a competition at the same level. It can be said that in terms of endurance, domestic cars have caught up with Tesla and shown a trend of catching up.
The technology gap has narrowed dramatically
But Tesla still has an advantage
Tesla as a benchmark enterprise in the field of electric vehicles, there is still a deep accumulation of technology, although the rapid progress of domestic electric vehicles, but Tesla still has technical advantages in many aspects. In order to explain Tesla's technical advantages, this topic is actually too grand to be clear in a few paragraphs. Let's just talk to you briefly from a qualitative point of view.
Three-electric system
The most important thing about electric vehicles is the three-electric system: battery, motor, and electronic control. Tesla does not produce batteries itself, and has always bought them from suppliers, first LG, then Panasonic, and then to the Ningde era. Today, many domestic brands are also using the battery of the Ningde era, so at present, Tesla is not much ahead of domestic cars in the battery.
However, Tesla's requirements for suppliers are relatively high, and suppliers are willing to give priority to Tesla with the latest technologies and products.
Of course, Tesla is not willing to be subject to people on the battery, has been actively developing battery technology, and has made a lot of progress. In the near future, if Tesla announces that it will carry its own battery, it is also very likely.
In terms of motors, the motor body Tesla is not self-developed, because the current motor suppliers are also very mature. Tesla's suppliers are also the top companies in the industry.
However, Tesla has not given up self-research on the motor, and has recently made a big move. On the latest Model S Plaid, Tesla added a protective sleeve made of carbon fiber to the rotor of the motor, which is able to continuously output maximum power when driving at full speed.
The model S Plaid is equipped with a motor
With the blessing of this motor, the Model S Plaid accelerates from 100 km/h in only 2.1 seconds and reaches a speed of 322 km/h. Musk even excitedly said: "The world's most advanced motors bring the fastest car, and I think we really took the Model S Plaid to a whole new level." ”
It can be seen that although Tesla does not have all its own motors, its technical reserves and research and development capabilities for motors are world-class.
Part of Tesla's electronic control system disassembly
Unlike the external procurement of batteries and motors, the electronic control system has always been made by Tesla itself, and Tesla's advantages in this regard are still relatively obvious. This is also the reason why Tesla's battery life is relatively solid.
Autonomous driving
For a long time, Tesla's autopilot has been the benchmark in the industry, but Tesla's autopilot may need to do more localization adaptation in China to be more suitable for us. After all, China's road conditions are too different from those of the United States.
It is undeniable that Tesla does have deep accumulation and great progress in automatic driving, but domestic cars are also catching up quickly in this regard. At present, in terms of actual functions within the scope of legal permission, the difference is actually not large.
Manufacturing technology
It is a fact that traditional car companies have decades and hundreds of years of accumulation in the production and manufacturing process. This link has also been considered a short board for Tesla, but Tesla also has a lot of its own innovations in the manufacturing process. Moreover, this innovation is more daring and bold than traditional car companies.
Giant die-casting machine in Tesla factory
For example, everyone knows that automobile production is mainly stamping, welding, painting and final assembly. Tesla first applied the integrated casting process, which is simply to combine stamping and welding into one, and directly die-cast into certain parts through integrated casting. The benefits are clear, shortening the manufacturing process, reducing the number of parts, and saving costs.
At present, the domestic Model Y has adopted this process, and it is said that this process can integrate the 70 parts at the bottom of the rear row into two parts, which greatly improves the production efficiency.
Model Y parts cast-in-white body in one
The integrated casting process is just an example, proving that although manufacturing is not Tesla's strength, Tesla also has a lot of innovation in this area and is actively exploring technology.
Much like the relationship between domestic mobile phones and iPhones
Through a simple analysis of several aspects, I think the relationship between Tesla and domestic cars is now like an iPhone and a domestic mobile phone. Domestic mobile phones are more eye-catching than the iPhone in terms of innovation and parameters, but the iPhone still has its own advantages in the use experience. At the same time, the iPhone has no shortage of very cutting-edge exploration and innovation in technology.
Sales and technology outside of
Other advantages
In addition to sales and technical advantages, I think Tesla has two more important competitive points:
First, Tesla dares to go to the technology that other car companies dare not go on. Through positive research and development, once it is successfully verified, Tesla will dare to boldly apply it to mass production vehicles. This is both boldness and confidence and confidence brought by technology.
Second, for the technology in key areas, even if you can buy good spare parts, you will never give up self-research, and the level of self-research is also in the first echelon. This point is also worth learning from domestic brands.
In addition, in the past, we can also say that Tesla has a brand advantage over domestic cars, after all, it debuted earlier and positioned high-end. However, in the past two years, everyone's recognition of domestic brands, support for national brands, and negative news of Tesla, it is difficult to say that Tesla's brand is not an advantage.
Of course, we can also see that although the public opinion on the Internet is very unfavorable to Tesla, even one-sided, when everyone really pays for a car, many friends are still very honest.
Write at the end
Finally, back to the simple and rough question we started, in 2022, can domestic brands beat up Tesla?
In fact, this problem itself is a bit too heavy, the reason why this problem will be raised, is a friend of mine, in a group of domestic electric vehicles, said two good words about Tesla, and then was "attacked by the group", and was invited out of the group chat. And this issue is the hot topic of discussion in this group.
But in fact, although the progress of domestic cars is visible to the naked eye, after our analysis today, we can also see that Tesla still has its own advantages in sales and technology.
Therefore, although beating Tesla sounds very cool and in line with the patriotic sentiments of many netizens, it seems too early to say it now.
Discovering the gaps, facing up to the gaps, and working hard to cultivate internal skills are the top priorities.
(Text/Car Onion Ring)