In fact, from the map of the late Ming and early Qing dynasties, it can be seen that the Manchu Qing Dynasty will definitely enter the customs, but it may take a little longer, because it was almost the north of Mongolia, the south of Korea, it is estimated that a little longer Russia and Japan are almost possible, we can analyze the direction of things in detail.
Only with its own strength can it be all possible, first look at the strength of the Manchu Qing.
The strength of the Manchu Qing
In the Chongzhen Dynasty alone, the Manchu Qing Dynasty attacked the North China Plain seven times and the North China Plain four times, the most famous of which was chongzhen's three-year change of self-defeat and Chongzhen's eleventh year because of the Manchu Qing's entry into the turmoil. And the Northern Ding Mongolia After the Southern Ping Dynasty, the Eight Banners of Mongolia and the Eight Banners of the Han Army were successively formed.
From the beginning of the Wanli dynasty, the Mongol cavalry appeared in the Conquest of the Ming Dynasty.
When Nurhaci established the Eight Banners in the forty-third year of the Ming Dynasty (1615), there were already seventy-six Mongolian cattle records, and some Mongols were compiled into the Manchurian cattle records, which were subordinate to the Manchurian ministers. In the early years of Tiancong, Emperor Taiji organized the newly descended Mongols and some of the Mongols originally incorporated into the Manchurian banner with the Second Banner of Mongolia. In the ninth year of Tiancong (1635), the Eight Banners of Mongolia were officially established, and each nationality set up one Gushan Erzhen (Han name Du Tong), two Meile Zhangjing (Han name Deputy Du Tong), and two Jia La ZhangJing (Han name Counselor), and the Mongolian Niulu (Han Name Zuo Ling). After that, the Mongols were incorporated, and by the end of Chongde's reign, there were 117 Zo Collars and 5 Half Zo Collars. In October 1642, Emperor Taiji mobilized an unprecedented strength of troops, invaded the Ming Realm for the fourth time, and appointed Abatai as a "great general under order", "leading the Inner Manchurians, Mongols, and Han People to twenty-four Gushan Mountains, half of the Gushan Erzhen officers and half of the Outer Mongol soldiers to conquer the Ming Kingdom." That is, "noon and noon".
At the same time, the Qing Dynasty "fixed the world with bow horses", and these bow horses used for the Qing Dynasty to conquer the whole country from the northeast were the most trusted group of the Qing ruling group, the Eight Banner Soldiers. The Eight Banners, including the Manchu Eight Banners, the Han Eight Banners and the Mongolian Eight Banners, were for a long time the most elite armed forces of the Qing Dynasty.
The characteristics of the Han Eight Banners are:
The Han Eight Banners of the Eight Banners are mainly derived from the people who voluntarily submitted to the Later Jin (Qing Dynasty) at the end of the Ming Dynasty or were captured by the Qing Dynasty in Liaodong in subsequent wars. The Han Eight Banners are mainly Han Chinese, but also include a very small number of Sinicized Jurchens and Mongols. If "skilled bow horses" is the symbol of the Manchu Eight Banners and the Mongolian Eight Banners, then "proficiency in firearms" is the most important feature of the Han Eight Banners. The number is also very stable, about 24,000 people.
In the case of the first entry: the full army was only 70,000, the Han army was 26,000, and the Mongolian army was 24,000.
A total of about 120,000, regardless of the Han Eight Banners, Manchuria and Mongolia alone had nearly 100,000 skilled bow and horse troops, which was also the foundation of his several southern expeditions, northern Mongolia, and southern Ping Korea.
Of course, if the Manchu Qing Dynasty did not enter the customs, it would not only affect its own military strength, but also the leaders' strategy and intentions.
Leader's strategy and personality (Emperor Taiji, Dolgun)
Let's look at Huang Taiji first:
Huang Taiji dual personality Play small and unloved Mother is snubbed, no one cares like a wild child, but he is self-reliant and makes himself strong and cold. From an early age, he developed a calm and cold heart and a strong heart, so strangling the concubine Abahai also reflected his cruel and cold side. But on the other hand, under the influence of Han culture, Xiongcai is a great talent, a man who knows people to make good use of people, and has a long-term vision, and if he dies in his prime, he is also called a Ming Jun.
Then Dorgon:
From its ability to defeat Hauge to ascend to the throne, we can see the depth of the city government, visible, and the key Emperor Taiji can also deceive the Emperor Taiji. And the famous generals who boldly used the Ming Dynasty to surrender had a more outstanding side, but there was still a certain dark side to the psychology, which can be known from the attitude of Shunzhi to him after his death.
On the whole, both are heroic and strategic, will never be limited to the white mountains and black waters, will inevitably expand to the surrounding areas, from the map, the most likely is to destroy Korea in the south, completely conquer Mongolia to the north, and then defeat Russia, and later expedition to Europe.
Then let's take a look at the situation in Mongolia and Russia to analyze the feasibility of things.
Mongolia
During the Mongol period, Lin Dan Khan was the most powerful, but because of the gentle strategy adopted by Emperor Taiji, it gradually divided the Mongols, fought their own battles, scattered the sand, and finally defeated the Mongols, but did not destroy it, but at that time, it was only a matter of time before the Jin dynasty perished.
Russia
After the Renaissance, the great powers of Europe arose, but Russia at that time seemed to be not a European country, very backward, and serfdom prevailed everywhere - in fact, the number of serfs was increasing, and its legitimate power was decreasing. Russia missed the renaissance and the Great Reformation. The clergy are ignorant; literature is bleak, and mathematics and the natural sciences are neglected. Compared with Western Europe, Russia was almost still in the Middle Ages. In Western Europe, at this time Newton's Principles of Natural Philosophy had just come out, and literary and philosophical undertakings flourished. At this time, Peter the Great had not yet been born.
North Korea
It did not take long for Daming to experience the War of Resistance against Japan and Aid Korea, which fully proved that the DPRK's combat strength was low.
With 120,000 outstanding achievements of the Eight Banner Army to deal with these countries, there is a high probability that they can be destroyed, so if the Qing Dynasty does not enter the customs in 1644, it is very likely that it can set mongolia in the north, ping Korea in the south, and then expedition to Europe.