Wen | Li Qin
"That's the inflection point."
In 2021, NIO's deliveries increased by 109.1% year-on-year to 91,429 units, and if it were not for supply chain supply problems, it is likely to rush to 100,000 units. Talking about his feelings in 2021, Weilai CEO Li Bin bluntly told 36Kr that the rapid development of the market was not even expected by him.
The inflection point in his mouth is that China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has been rising all the way last year, exceeding 20% in November, compared with less than 6% penetration in 2020. In the global market, new energy vehicles are also branching out, insurance data show that from January to November, The sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe were 985,000 units, an increase of 77.6% year-on-year, and from January to October, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the United States were 372,000 units, an increase of 90.3% year-on-year.
This inflection point means that new energy vehicles are officially popularized to the personal consumption market on a global scale, and "finally no one is discussing whether electric vehicles should be bought." ”
It is difficult to avoid that in the growth of China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate from 1%, 5%, 10%, and then to 20%, it is new car companies such as Weilai and Xiaopeng Automobile that have contributed key traction forces to the market. Under their respective strategies, they have invested heavily in technology, services and infrastructure, coupled with Tesla's localization in 2019 and policy support, to drive the rapid formation of China's smart electric vehicle industry chain.
However, it is far from time to pick the fruit. Traditional car companies are catching up, xiaomi, Apple, Huawei and other technology giants are also gathering to enter the market, and even have a second wave of car manufacturing with good potential. Even if the head companies on the field have hoarded more than 40 billion yuan of funds, established brand recognition, and gradually completed the production, research and marketing service system, the war still cannot be relaxed.
"I have a point of view, from 2019 to 2024 is called the qualifying stage, 2024, 2025 after the real final stage." Li Bin told 36Kr that the qualifiers have entered the most critical three years, "How to do in the next three years, directly decide whether you can qualify." ”
So what should Weilai or other car companies do today? Li Bin saw it very clearly, he told 36Kr that from 2025 back, the most basic thing is the underlying thinking, route judgment, talent laying, because this "has no change" in the future, and the rest is to fight for investment and implementation.
The strategic direction of a company is similar to that of a person, "Ask a person, where are you from, where are you going, ask the company the same, what do you want to do with this company?" ”
As early as 2014, when weilai was founded, the company formulated a systematic strategy, which is simply to take a longer-term view and think from the whole experience.
On NIO's strategic compass, NIO has blossomed around the fields of car, digital experience, service, automotive lifestyle, etc., and has also output a set of full-process experiences to users.
"We call it full experience, and that's what I'm after." Li Bin said that at a certain point, other families may do better than Weilai, but combining technology, services, NIOLife and user communities, "Who is currently doing better than us around the comprehensive experience of smart electric vehicles?" I think it's still a little hard to get ahead of us. ”
The starting point of the competitiveness of the WEILAI system is Li Bin's insight into the endgame of smart electric vehicles. The experience inherited from the mobile Internet in the industry is that the product is regarded as a strategic fortress, while Li Bin regards the car and the product as the foundation, and it is not enough to just do the foundation, because it is difficult for the automotive products to have the barrier of "one trick fresh", and it will soon be homogenized, especially in the intelligence of the industry competition.
"In fact, looking at Apple phones and Android phones today, a lot of flower live Apple is not as good as Android phones, but you can't say that it is not a good experience." So we often talk about the last thing to see the experience, and the experience refers to a very comprehensive thing. Li Bin said.
In the WEIlai system, the experience needs efficiency to support, "our systematic efficiency is not to pursue local, short-term capital efficiency, but to look at the efficiency of the whole life cycle." Li Bin said.
NIO Energy is a typical representative.
For example, all nippon cars use the same size battery pack, And Weilai energy head Shen Fei told 36Kr that it brings three efficiency advantages: all models of Weilai can achieve battery upgrades; each replacement power station of Weilai can be compatible with all Weilai models and Weilai battery packs; the new model does not need to independently develop a new battery pack.
Further extending to more service links, NIO has built a three-tier system of infrastructure, cloud scheduling system and operation team.
Service can be said to be the most conspicuous label on Weilai, but "everyone underestimates the difficulty of doing service, and it is much more difficult to do a good job than to do a good job." Li Bin said bluntly, today everyone mentioned that the first impression of Weilai is always that Weilai is to do a good job in service, "or that sentence, you do a good job." ”
In 2021, WEILAI has achieved remarkable results in facilities, building more than 600 substations in total, and building two almost every day, which greatly improves the convenience of users going out to replenish energy.
According to Shen Fei, the brain of NIO's energy service network can achieve 4 major capabilities, including equipment status detection and upgrade, statistical analysis of service time and resource data, power-up commissioner interface, and real-time monitoring of battery safety.
"We'll look at how many modes of failure a battery there are, and when a certain probability of failure is a little bit off, we'll analyze the cause and whether we need to pull the battery back and check it." Shen Fei said.
New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, naturally have short battery life, whether it is Tesla, Weilai, the premise of grabbing the market is that a large number of power-up service systems are laid first, Tesla and Xiaopeng Motors choose fast charging routes, and Weilai almost does not make choices, and will replace the power, charge and other ways that can be replenished, all to users. It is precisely because of the large investment in the service system that even if Weilai was in business difficulties in the early days, it still won a buffer zone for the establishment of the brand, and now, it supports the Average Price of More than 400,000 Yuan for Chinese electric vehicle brands, selling more than 90,000 units a year.
Although there are a large number of players pouring in, catching up and competing, Li Bin still adheres to the principle that the automotive industry is not a winner-take-all market. Weilai's strategy also revolves around this principle, "If you believe that the winner takes all, the whole competitive strategy is very aggressive." If you don't believe it's winner-take-all, you do your own thing, iterate on your own, and you're not too moved by the outside world. ”
The intelligent electric vehicle revolution has given Chinese auto entrepreneurs and Chinese companies a historic opportunity, and Li Bin's judgment is that whether it is from the high-end market, the mid-market, or the entry-level market, there will be excellent Chinese companies, and "not only in China, but also in many markets around the world."
He predicted that six of the world's top ten auto groups in 2035 would be from China, "and I hope THAT WEILAI is one of them." ”
The following is an excerpt from the dialogue between 36Kr and Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO:
Talk about global markets
36Kr: In the past, the global automotive industry was basically German cars, American cars, Japanese cars, and now and in the future, Chinese cars have the opportunity, look at the next five years or ten years, what kind of pattern will the intelligent electric vehicle industry become?
Li Bin: We will go through 15 years, and all of a sudden we will go to 2035. I have a basic judgment, indeed this wave is China's opportunity, although the current global market, international political situation may have a lot of pressure and challenges on Chinese enterprises, but overall still very confident. There is basic logic.
If we look at smart electric vehicles, although we put three words together, they are actually three very large industries. Intelligence is a big industry, electric is the revolution in the energy industry, and cars are already a big market. Now that you're putting these three industries together, which countries have a chance? From the market size, from the supply chain, from the talent base and the policy environment, there are 12 grids in three times four, and only China can fill these 12 grids.
36 Kr: Can't the United States?
Li Bin: There are many factors, such as supply chain. Supply chains are a big challenge for the U.S. because there really isn't a cost advantage in every way.
We are very lucky to start a car business in China just as we did in Europe and the United States more than a hundred years ago, just as we did in Japan and South Korea a few decades ago. This wave of auto revolution has given Chinese auto entrepreneurs and Chinese local companies a huge opportunity, a historic opportunity.
So I think whether it's from the high-end market, the mid-tier market, the entry-level market, there are very good Chinese companies in various market segments, not only in China, but also in many markets around the world.
I have a prediction that six of the top ten automotive groups in the world by 2035 will be from China.
36 Kr: Traditional or German car companies are not so fast in the intelligent and so on, giving Chinese car companies a large time window, when will this time window be closed?
Li Bin: Intelligence is not a simple question of spending or not spending money, it is a DNA (genetic) level thing. Where do we look at the world's biggest Internet companies? Central America.
These reasons are related to the size of the market, many things are quantitative changes to qualitative changes, from scenes, talents, culture, etc., all kinds of things combined together, it has become such a situation. Just like a lot of basic research in China, compared with the United States, there is still a certain gap. There are also many reasons.
In fact, China is doing a lot of things that can be seen in the short term, such as research and development, applied research, application development, our response is very fast, iteration is very fast. I think there is a big opportunity for this, just like Chinese the field of industrial intelligence, Chinese companies are very powerful.
These things are combined, plus there are a lot of startups in China that have some "inner volume" together. This competition will allow Chinese companies to progress significantly faster than companies elsewhere. Intelligent things need to be iterated quickly, respond quickly, and need to be closely integrated with the scene, and China has some such foundations. I think in the long run, Chinese companies have more staying power than the United States.
36 Kr: The window of time that will close in five years, you won't worry about the German car catching up with us soon?
Li Bin: I think they will definitely do a good job, if they can put the whole R&D center in China.
36Kr: For example, next year (2022) we will enter four European countries, and in 2025 we will enter 20 countries. So this rate is the rate at which it competes with German cars? Or compared to Chinese companies going to sea?
Li Bin: The company has planned many rounds internally, and now I will just talk to you about it, from the company's capabilities, target markets, and strategic planning, we have lined up at this time.
This is our goal, it is not yet a reality, and if we want to do it, the challenge is quite large. The market is there, the world can afford it, and most of the mainstream high-end markets where WEILAI is located are in Europe and the United States.
36Kr: What are the biggest challenges of globalization?
Li Bin: Globalization is a big challenge. There are two reasons, one is that as a company, it is a challenge for you to provide product services around the world. In addition, doing business will sometimes be affected by such things as international politics. How does a Chinese company participate in a global, high-level competition. I think this challenge is still quite big, the pressure is still very big.
36Kr: If you look at it in the next decade, what are the main tasks this year (2021)?
Li Bin: I think this year for this industry, finally no one discussed whether to buy an electric car or not.
I used to have to explain a lot of things to him. For example, you want to explain that although the electric car also has a battery accident, the probability of fire is still much lower than that of the gasoline car, and you have to explain that there is no problem in adding electricity, which is also very convenient. This inflection point, this year suddenly passed, last year's penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still 5%, 6%, this year it will be 20%. This is quite unexpected.
36 Krypton: Did it scare you too?
Li Bin: To be honest, I didn't expect it myself. I turned out to be more radical in the long run and more conservative in the short term.
I've always said 90% from 2030 to 90%, and this year I'll keep that saying, maybe 30% in 2025, and there are several iterations of cars. Now it looks like it's done ahead of schedule.
This is a very critical point, smart electric vehicles are really being privately purchased by individual users, and really become a market-driven and consumption-driven. 1%, 5%, 10% of the market penetration, these three files are very important, 20% is followed by 50%. I feel that after the 20% point, the progress to 50% is faster than we thought.
Talk about product development
36Kr: There are a lot of very optimistic things this year, such as everyone's cars are selling very well, and they have raised a lot of money, you have nearly 50 billion cash on your account, and other companies have a lot of money on their books, does it mean that the current competitive situation is not the same?
Li Bin: Definitely, this year has made a lot of investment around full-stack technology research and development, infrastructure investment, global markets, and the fourth, that is, mass market brands. What seeds are sown today, what fruits will be borne in the future, do not vote today, and will not be able to pick them in the future. So the seeds that everyone sowed today are right or not, and whether they are sown well or not is very important.
So just said, what does it mean for us that decade? In fact, pushing back, the thinking at the bottom, the judgment of the route, the laying of talents, in the end OK is not OK, this does not have to change. After three years, no, come back again, sorry, no.
I have a point of view, from 2019-2024 is called a qualifying stage, 2024, 2025 after the real final stage, that is, the fight. If you don't play well in the qualifiers, you won't make it to the finals at all, or your qualifiers won't be the top players and can't win later, or the qualifiers hurt themselves and won't be able to do it in the end. So it's a qualifying stage.
If you define it, it is the crucial three years of qualifying. How well the next three years are done, directly determine whether they can qualify.
36 Kr: Everyone is fighting fiercely in research and development, what are they fighting?
Li Bin: I think it is still the bottom ability to fight, the bottom technology and the long-term route. I think people will still have different judgments. For example, we have the advantage of power exchange, and there is a lot of investment around power exchange. For example, we are a dual motor, not a single motor.
Some companies' product portfolios will be different, such as doing a lot of investment around the panoramic digital cockpit, and may also make a lot of screens, which will affect where your energy is spent.
For example, intergenerational, how is the intergenerational rhythm, basically how many years a generation, how about the relationship between generations. The first generation, the second generation, which things reuse inheritance, which things are reconstructed, are very complex things.
There is also the question, is it supporting one market or multiple markets? A car is only developed for China and developed for the United States and developed at the same time as China, the United States and Europe, which is not the same.
A lot of the underlying design is a little different. This is long-term planning. Once the direction is wrong, it will be challenged in the future.
36Kr: Have you been focusing on R&D in the past year to make up for some of the lessons of 2019, or have you always had a role as a CEO?
Li Bin: We have various reasons in 2019, the turmoil of the team, including resources, when we have to survive, some classes are definitely left behind. Re-acceleration, including we also skipped some half-generation products and went straight to the second generation. R&D definitely revolves around these things, it's definitely going to be refactored. In fact, how to say it, to build a foundation, this foundation to support our longer-term development.
In fact, research and development has always been my management, from the first day it is my management. Originally it was a relatively large cluster, now we are relatively flat. This adjustment began almost at the end of 2018, and the adjustment was almost in place from the end of last year (2020) to the beginning of this year.
36Kr: How many R&D and product meetings do you attend a week?
Li Bin: It's still more, half a week (in research and development).
36Kr: Like the ET5, it will be a blockbuster model that is visible to the naked eye, why is it at this time? You have been focusing on research and development for more than a year, what kind of production and research system have you established?
Li Bin: In fact, in terms of research and development, I will not grasp so many technical details, mainly focus on the entire architecture, how to build an organizational structure.
First of all, how to build the framework of the entire intelligent electric vehicle, from the user's interests, the user's experience to the business model, product technology, I want to push this thing backwards. Who is this car sold to? What does he want? What experience does he want to see? What can these new technologies make for these experiences?
It's also important to get to the business model. For example, does autonomous driving treat it as a function or as a service? Basically do this segment, and then participate in a part of the product. I am certainly not a technical expert, and the technical details are generally in terms of talent, and I go to make more judgments. Basically, it's more about technology strategy and technical architecture, and my strengths may be in this place. Products and technologies are pushed backwards in the interests of users and business models.
Something like a substation is typical. First from the user interest, user experience to the business model, and then the product technology. In the past, I did Mobike with this logic, and it was also like this, from the subway to the office, from home to the subway station, three kilometers and five kilometers of travel is difficult to get. Then there are the benefits and experience, the experience is the mobile phone switch lock, take and put, the business model is a dollar at a time. As for how this bicycle is, it is not my biggest concern, such as what kind of communication mode the switch lock uses to do.
Including ET5, who is it sold to, what does this user base like, including the design, including why is the sound all standard? Because we have more, deeper understanding of immersive experiences. There is more understanding of the use of space inside the car in the parked state. Then we'll go and do more technically.
36 Kr: A bit like the role of a product manager?
Li Bin: This is what it is.
36 Kr: In terms of products, is there a possibility of "one trick fresh"?
Li Bin: I don't think there is a "fresh move". Smartphones have some lessons for us, and Apple isn't the first to do smartphones, and I've used several before that. But it brings these experiences together perfectly, and that's important. It did today, and Apple didn't sell first every time, many times when it was second and third. Even Apple, the world's most successful company, hasn't really done it in the smartphone space.
In fact, isn't it cool to see that folding phone? I think the car ends up like this, with turnips and cabbages having their own love.
36Kr: It is also unlikely that a company's autonomous driving will accumulate a particularly large amount of data, the experience will be particularly good, and it will leave other people a lot?
Li Bin: Definitely not, at most one or two years earlier, one or two years later.
So do we. When we mass-produced the EyeQ4 chip ten months earlier than others, we are now the first global mass production of this chip, others are not half a year late? More than a thousand T's computing power, in two days others also have, cameras, lidar is the same.
36 Kr: Moore's Law has worked.
Li Bin: Intelligent things are still relatively cruel. So what things to keep up with in the car, which things to think about for a long time, this challenge is quite big. In fact, looking at Apple phones and Android phones today, many flowers live Apple played without Android phones. But you can't say it's not a good experience. So we often talk about the last thing to see the experience. Experience refers to something that is very comprehensive, not something that is at one point. For example, what is Apple's biggest experience? Privacy protection, aesthetics.
You feel comfortable, you can't say it. To look at it at one point, it can be said that others do better than it in many places. But as a whole, no one dares to say that it is better than it is. It's a comprehensive thing.
In fact, Weilai is also. At a point is not others do better than us, may have, but Weilai technology is quite innovative leading, the service is also very good, and NIOLife, the user community is also very interesting, so the overall to do together, in the current situation, who around the comprehensive experience of smart electric vehicles to do better than us? Systematic experience, we call the whole experience, this is my pursuit of the goal.
Talk about systematic competitiveness
36Kr: We are all in the era of intelligent electric vehicles, is there a way to make our marginal effect more obvious through intelligent technology?
Li Bin: Yes, we talk about systematic efficiency, in fact, many people do not understand this word. What is systematized efficiency? Not a local, not a short-term cost efficiency, you have to look at the efficiency of your whole life cycle. For example, we think about how much a car costs for 15 years, whether it is a lifetime free warranty or a ten-year free warranty, and rarely think about 15 years.
I don't know, but it's definitely not right for you not to think about it, which is the whole life cycle to think about things. You calculate efficiency, save a little money this year, but in the future may have to spend more money to repair the car, whether it is the user to pay money or we pay money, this is the cost. Something like this we have to think about.
If you look at weilai's restraint on many things, all cars use a battery pack of one size. The systematic thinking of this matter is much more profound than others. What I gained and what I lost in this practice. I'll think very clearly. It's like we've always had dual motors, not single motors. Just like each generation of intelligent platforms, all are the same hardware and software.
In many systematic things, we have our thinking, we are not the same as the clouds, people say that changing electricity is not OK. We'll take a little look at it and go back to the point and think about things, what exactly we're going to do, and what you're thinking about yourself.
36 Kr: Is the ability to systematize backwards team building?
Li Bin: Yes, I think this includes the company's vision, values, including the team just said that the system construction, is a very comprehensive thing. The most important thing is like asking a person, where you are coming from and where you are going. In fact, ask the company the same, what do you want to do with this company, you still answer the same question.
36Kr: Can services be differentiated? For example, if you make Haidilao today, others do not do as well as Haidilao, and make Starbucks?
Li Bin: You can try a Starbucks. I mean, everyone underestimates the difficulty of service, and it's much harder to do a good job than to do a good job.
Service is happening every day, different people, all kinds of scenarios. For example, today's user has a very unpleasant thing at home, is in a bad mood, and just happens to run into an employee who is in a bad mood. Just happened to be in one piece, how do you control this matter?
So I think the most underrated thing is service, saying that Weilai is that the service is done well, or that sentence, you do a good job.
36Kr: Service is still a particularly differentiated point in the organizational system of Nio, will it be the top priority next?
Li Bin: There are many words behind the service, first of all, infrastructure, you change the power station less, the service attitude is no matter how good it is useless. Service centers for infrastructure, service centers for repairs, NIOHouses, etc., are all part of the service. This is the basic facility, which also needs money to invest.
The second is the management system, the management system is also very challenging to develop, how do you manage the cow house well. Need Cloud Service (service cloud), how to schedule the charging pile well, need energy cloud services. Connect these infrastructure with people, users, and cars, and the technical content in the middle is quite high. The business is based on the cloud as the underlying architecture, which also brings a lot of opportunities, and it can't do this thing without this thing.
And then up there are people. People's values, management, internal mechanisms, daily execution, every detail is more difficult. So the foundation is relatively easy, it will be more difficult to the system, and it will be more difficult for people. When it comes to people, the challenge is very, very big. In fact, further down the foundation, is the car. I think there are a lot of challenges with cars, but I feel that this challenge is an order of magnitude smaller than the challenge of getting the service done.
36Kr: Now the industry feels that the product is the core, is the moat of the core of business, you are now focusing on an industry and research system, do you also agree with this view?
Li Bin: I think products are the foundation. These are different quadrants, there are experience improvements brought about by technological advances, there are emotional experiences, functional experiences. There are a lot of good companies in each quadrant, and that's a matter of positioning. For example, the function of the car is a foundation, we take a house analogy, how good the house is, the stability of the foundation, is a lot of mechanical-related functions of the car, your wall, with new materials, decoration also makes everyone feel better.
But the most important thing is the people inside, and talent is the most important thing. I still don't want to use the dichotomy.
36Kr: TO5 today has attracted a lot of attention, is not it an explicit manifestation of product power?
Li Bin: Of course, we have to do a good job of products, of course, to do leading technology, but this is not enough. I'll give you an example, like the design of the ET5, which is the sensual part, and what people think without these innovations in the cockpit.
Let's think from another angle, this thing does not need to pass two years, after one year, the car to engage in a VR/AR adaptation, can not be differentiated. I think that behind everyone really buying a car or buying a thing to buy something, in fact, buying their own emotional projection.
36Kr: Even if today it is said that there will be a lot of technology research and development, including chips, batteries, etc., is not enough to occupy a company's energy? Do we still need to do extended services and community building?
Li Bin: Isn't that all that should be done? This is not well organized, what else to do, we still have to do the global market.
36Kr: You just mentioned that the increase from 7,000 people to 16,000 people, is the process of rising people already mastered?
Li Bin: Of course, there will be many challenges. Simple increase in the number of people is to recruit and enter, I think the real difficulty is to let everyone have a common goal, a common way of doing things, a common value system. It's easy to add people, but it's hard to get people together. As with all companies, it's hard to align goals.
36Kr: What do you think will be the bigger challenge for NIO in the next period of time?
Li Bin: It is still an internal challenge, we have more and more users, more and more user scenarios, more and more employees, and more and more places. How to maintain a stable service quality, I think this is always the most difficult.
Not to mention the percentage, if there are ten thousand users who are not happy with you now, this is a big deal. We are also a very transparent community. The challenge will be bigger. It is not easy to do a good job.
36 Kr: Will improving service efficiency be a challenge?
Li Bin: No. I've been in the automotive industry since 2000. Our service model today is much more efficient than the traditional service model. On our market side, the sales service adds up to less than 10,000 people. Quite simply, through the 4S store way to do, a store of 150 people, there are already 100,000 people. But he hasn't counted the gas station people, he hasn't counted anyone else.
We have just reconstructed the entire service system in the way of mobile Internet, and the efficiency is much higher. A substation through the mobile Internet plus home charging, logic on a second-generation station can support 1000 users, not more efficient than gas stations?
It's not that other people's successes are all paths, I have to follow him. Tesla is good, but that's not my way.